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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 g7 `5 V U- E4 h$ e( D+ U
. o+ T9 O" W1 e" S2 K, A! k i! @有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this" W, C1 c" f/ K; ]7 F
. a; j" H& {: ^9 Vin Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.: z% c" G# Q1 M( K" \
8 }5 i* r7 E# `2 XOil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.$ f1 j# V$ w' B8 ?8 G; Y1 g
( N: n# s# H3 U; o6 ]" B$ }Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.' q; P) g) Y, a# W) w1 Q) q
# t- R3 a1 E+ D- i# U“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
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Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”0 q5 V4 T) e& x5 B
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.; P7 t$ ]$ `; P: t
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian. h6 O$ C0 O% ]& L4 S5 _; Y/ E
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”) c0 Z4 E' @5 d
- H. a0 z' o% U# I: h* y. T; Q“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”' R/ ?2 y0 U2 @6 ~
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking ! z* e1 Q( p# e
Around.”
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.) q% O8 e) b/ Y/ z4 P% {5 {
7 _7 \. a( V0 p x2 o5 K0 TSource: CNBC
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