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) E7 U5 ^! \' C" L Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com- [3 ^& \! e! g+ o$ N
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1 P' ~8 a5 p: s7 HThu, January 11, 2007' I4 f( T9 `1 ]7 T+ O7 {
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007( E4 s* O* I( T
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' b) b) y" j# B9 p
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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6 p& |$ y, B+ t% x( W! [+ FDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." " N: K4 R- j! J: s2 ~
l' I, ?2 `4 Q; p) qShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 }: }0 f) s# `- h# q: H2 a: j9 Y
+ [2 S5 x0 u& L, Y" c, W+ j/ P" {"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. . e' n% U6 q7 M* T$ k
* X( r: ? I( z3 h, f0 `Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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; v& U" y& F, O* _" m% Z l& B5 H"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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0 o& t9 n( J, O* W% |9 D+ y* P2 U, w"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 5 a* z7 m9 V! n, \9 R7 m) G
* K7 X9 P& ?" `' o, F"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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3 T/ x1 g! k8 W. W8 g( W"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ; n* Y5 m. ]8 d! G! {
4 U, [/ Y' @+ A5 F7 W6 f) kExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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9 U5 ?( }3 o" B8 j* O/ ^$ EOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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' t. k3 G, E, @( EHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. - z" a' `$ U2 B$ d7 _5 Q9 @
* K/ r2 T; V! \2 c"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 L+ b' z- C$ K; H$ F; T
5 }8 q/ ?8 ]: J' o$ ESo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. . F$ j( x1 T4 e, F/ c7 a1 @6 \
; d: Z5 V/ a4 [" e4 d7 V7 ]7 MYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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- v! Q# D0 @: ^. q* V2 U4 w( J"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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2 h" J0 H* }1 v. Y6 Q% DLet the good times roll.
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E; {/ U8 x" g. Z This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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