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: G0 }: \' G2 l$ M7 A; Q8 i Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com1 G' Z% K1 @" o+ \; z
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6 T8 e6 l0 D# w( c1 cThu, January 11, 2007
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7 W/ R, s) M% H6 l' GPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20077 m; ?6 j) W+ V1 f
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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8 o/ P! N8 p) ^6 k' V$ b7 J. wDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. . t% v: i! ]4 I1 E! q- A' M* ~+ z
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- k$ S# I4 @/ g& g) k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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. I6 o1 d# @4 J- R" x, w" c. g5 ?1 }' t& UShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 7 m6 d$ d3 `4 K% P
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 3 O- |$ s: a6 R: k) h
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 N5 Y( G2 B y4 G) y6 E
6 B* N! {& e8 e9 i"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." , @) x/ R; x8 d$ s
2 u+ d6 y k/ I8 _2 X2 IStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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( b/ W) G' C! \6 H( D"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. , o; g2 N) Z' L6 X. k3 b4 u; y& i
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. % a, c" b) `" t4 u
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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( I+ Y/ C( c5 ~7 p: g9 a; ]NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." - M0 _5 L J$ a1 M* z! ]& e
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. x1 [9 @! q N1 g2 x
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. % G/ Z3 K& O$ O' K( h% v
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. * n, [' k5 V5 j- L$ U; L' v
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 4 n- f) I. j0 e$ Q! Q
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Let the good times roll. ' h. Q* G- r7 _* c K2 n4 {4 u
0 T3 m3 R" V2 y, g$ G8 ]Previous story: Bottom Line
* ~5 u0 Z/ b1 N, QNext story: Building permits hit record
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