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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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5 t; D6 A0 H( d# W! [& ?( {7 zThu, January 11, 20074 Z$ }0 l! ?2 L- }' @: s+ Q
8 y6 I( W7 W, M0 QPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
7 ?" L- G% l A! d% P- LBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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$ ]7 _# G2 j* K. k' U3 CThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. + W6 a1 {+ @0 {: j5 Y, G7 h$ J
) a% a8 i: F7 P. @! iMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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4 Y( m8 t( ?" X, YBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 3 t" j9 H! L. z
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." $ H/ V& c+ c: z5 W9 ~
! x" P& x7 n% K5 t4 U& I3 Y* I; dShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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- ]- G8 N( `8 t. {' N. F: uCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 4 G; ]# ?3 E9 J+ o6 ^! \; s- N/ g
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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( v/ O5 C4 Q3 |5 d; N"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ; K7 j, e. }& s! E& R6 {! d
) A' @* X, L2 D& m& c0 g( W"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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; M5 p% P2 O' T4 O3 W/ x# D' L% K"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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' Q4 Y8 n/ J- c, eHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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0 Z# u& O5 M) w6 P, k L' PExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. / P- K4 ? ~- q5 D. k7 x C
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. + a" \/ Z8 u4 S+ Y& H3 X
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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( S0 ?- u5 ~% G" Z- E3 NYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 4 a+ Y$ o8 J) n, T
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ( v/ r1 N& R; |7 C u* `* P
1 |3 E1 `6 F G# u+ F8 `& RLet the good times roll. a7 }# x2 O0 f/ m5 T4 M
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
