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: a I3 \! ?/ ^1 F/ i2 `5 p6 QThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20075 W( D. \9 q" l' {0 l
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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; H% H% j; _- S0 X" T- I& X$ D! a% [They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. $ N1 Y" b7 t" N# D
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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, J8 d7 U5 t/ ~# oBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ' F- i T9 U8 s0 o3 b/ H
- U9 @# ?. ~: M- H+ z2 M& k4 i$ VDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. D/ g1 M0 O; W9 h2 y* f; R+ W" v- x+ u
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$ n& \8 n: I, E) ~# u"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 2 ?. g& ^! C/ |1 L9 [
4 M. |: @+ k5 H8 S. j$ h( e"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 1 \( K% ~5 X2 d9 w
9 B; Z9 _" \ r" e* mCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 x% G5 X! Y( U5 [: C$ {
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 1 S) o) L* _5 i7 y5 J8 [' R) \- i
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. % r! h+ ` q! u. E& n# I
3 @1 F* o0 ? `5 A x$ ~"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ) d; N1 i; I( Q1 u
$ s0 [& j. d3 a [6 o! V9 FNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." & |" y+ r9 e$ d- s
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 2 o6 R7 C b& y
% z. u4 Q# Q. d w"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ; U4 M. E/ Q0 ]* A$ _
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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) b( l7 @! s& `8 ~8 X* `+ E# F5 _$ q"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 8 s$ L1 J# e6 W: N" |
) A0 I$ r5 E* H4 r0 }Let the good times roll.
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