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: H0 a# k8 ^4 S. o! a* z& r Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com1 {7 T% D: F0 \. J; g" ^- S
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7 n9 f% f7 I$ s" BThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
4 |0 S, |, f: v) v7 M$ l/ M2 x6 HBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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- ]$ w. l+ |5 j! w- mThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ]. k" y* V+ c- {6 R
) ^/ p+ m/ @, _- |) N, x& F' _Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 3 @! S& I1 ^+ J
! Z! M1 K2 x7 O; X! b7 lBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. + W: a: L$ t5 L0 n2 z
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." $ h/ h5 a% w6 V- x3 D
) P' F ~# g( r* x0 X" s+ XShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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1 U& `& `, n# `7 F# _"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. , b/ z( n4 v* e) q8 r
- m9 ]" j, k( E; n* KCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. , T I" ]- `: }4 W
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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( {- N1 W+ L) e/ `. u. N6 c- GStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. * W4 t# h2 O+ }9 u" T
& i' T& C/ u1 O' \* i"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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1 v6 x5 Y% ]! T/ f"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT - J1 _3 G* A: F7 b3 \) j
6 o2 t5 n- k* l a8 p3 o/ ]; n' fHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 8 s A3 b# Z1 f0 I- }: f. S
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 4 m9 o) t( |0 M/ A+ ]" f! P1 A
: A8 ~0 l- j7 U0 RHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 4 ~) T: V! s. S- U
7 M3 h" K+ n+ f6 g4 F"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 6 }5 x0 Y2 S$ o' \) R
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. * B" _5 s7 S6 F+ U& W5 d
, o; a8 n5 e& ^. h5 }0 @"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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* ?( s( s' A3 A) o; s4 ~Let the good times roll. ; I' m' L" [ D5 B, k
$ T! v4 [+ W) oPrevious story: Bottom Line
X+ Q, x- j; k7 m, GNext story: Building permits hit record
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