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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com9 } e+ C2 U4 m2 Q
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6 h, y+ e9 D$ o/ r In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.4 S3 C7 s8 |* G, A5 I- C
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Thu, January 11, 2007- q: F' X( @2 w- Z! S4 B2 ]
1 c1 @5 e7 t3 V( ]$ ZPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
: V. |6 E- G/ mBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. " e; W( [, E2 m. b& j" u+ U
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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4 L0 q& g% w+ z( i* E+ ~But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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9 l# r( U* z1 C3 G) bDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' 8 e. Z: Y! _2 X& a
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! H4 `" r2 U9 M. r. v, l; W3 P4 E"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 7 r% C& p) O" z. c! Z Q1 u$ e9 L/ @
7 ^8 I9 ]9 v0 g; Y( m; fShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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3 A! a2 B( v" g" j6 e% j5 I"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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; ^: @% d1 u# A1 @0 W3 X, j9 E" k! ["The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ! k' m v" n' o+ `7 F
" d" Y6 q, t+ N: Z1 j J"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 0 B4 g' X1 |& n$ ?4 j
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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' X3 R- k; L6 N1 T$ g: z"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 9 f. {: x5 j' K- o6 B# N
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" Z/ p) |+ z: S) I+ o- r- c( M8 wHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." + d! p- r G! g5 E1 p( }( r h
# {" W& B) Z- K6 X; hExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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: c3 [; d; J# ]/ A( BHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. % j3 J i- F& \; g) n! P2 y6 V
6 X$ L3 F+ v/ j, i7 vSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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' [# n( k& W2 S/ J6 ~7 _, i4 {+ pLet the good times roll.
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6 v) _7 T# m! N' s% A6 gPrevious story: Bottom Line
) F! k3 H7 u3 B, ? h6 iNext story: Building permits hit record
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