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4 z2 A9 r5 u) b& R+ P5 _7 M Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com" b' z1 n7 @3 }+ k9 L7 q4 `: b
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8 N6 W2 @1 P, @ In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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" R, U) `- U; n4 A* f V- t7 tThu, January 11, 2007' y6 z% c& V+ U) i' `! G5 V
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
0 i8 u" Q# \2 v& B& J T ^- {By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN$ J! B" Y) H$ X# W
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 8 A4 r! V6 ^ j7 ? C8 q
6 o$ u+ w/ d1 N9 b: S5 FMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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/ g; W6 j) ?1 n4 n/ X7 ]3 gDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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) a& G4 B7 ]+ h9 Y"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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) k5 @8 E4 s5 H, {"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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8 I! W+ u& ~$ tStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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) ?4 _( V8 n8 U: U/ F"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 2 A' q ?9 e( q$ B4 T# {7 }
! O" m* t! s, X# J% VExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. , R5 J. w2 G/ U5 c( L: ^, }
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ) }" M0 d- n! F
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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/ u2 a6 Z6 k' w$ SSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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8 y! t5 r; ?9 C' A5 v0 W, pYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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2 s5 N+ c# Z, `3 N"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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