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* ?" d# w7 U& R: y5 t! |Thu, January 11, 2007) y& c8 K9 i+ L
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
% w; }. a, b/ eBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN2 E$ x, R9 E9 I1 r% B) {) P
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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* ^: u3 l! g% H: u/ pMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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! s* i( t" ? g l% x& |But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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; I% J1 A, U+ B. l' eDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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7 V" R: f) t2 ?& y. x'CONTINUED DEMAND' 8 R9 J& _' K; i7 m
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' H: }, O5 a i* h" L* ["We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ; B1 T+ F, t7 p x$ m/ P
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. . M% x( s8 L# z" T P, `
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. - @0 ` C2 a9 @% q: q: r# x4 M
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ( ?: y# H% X- c' W# E3 B# z
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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. }5 t2 p5 V% |"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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* @4 F# H. {4 k ^8 p* R% s"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT / L2 v; f i+ n6 Q) T
% D, f# B6 T" r3 \" M M$ z! wHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ( V6 S: `+ a5 c0 o
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. - {7 U1 g# ^* D3 B$ y
( v6 _9 F- K" a+ S) fOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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& j: y$ R6 y& o- vHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. V3 e. h2 X- [1 ^ v) |% F2 x+ l
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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O% S& K7 |6 _ ?1 Y3 S `So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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9 P& @. T2 I9 `0 o9 FYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. + p) z- q0 ~* O+ s0 L
$ q1 ] |6 z# U"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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, O/ L# o# b' RLet the good times roll.
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" p P J! P1 P& b) i! s' tPrevious story: Bottom Line3 ~# D6 f% k- S9 g
Next story: Building permits hit record
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