 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
, W& }, h; ^( w" F% |+ F- T5 b
, r% n$ Z, j4 S( [. e) ^Republish Reprint
8 d& f: F+ u c- mGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
7 f. l6 p. A* HMore from Gordon Isfeld7 `: D w ~2 E2 c# n, Z9 e' O
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.2 R# j1 J' B- D8 L; y
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
3 R$ x& D U2 A8 K) L3 f Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More% }# K9 v; S8 _& o
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
7 f# M( _5 v: e9 A6 r& ?- @& t; T- k2 o- \
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
; O0 ?; K% j$ ^/ p) i
- h" V8 q; G( rIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”4 \/ {8 t1 |, o& x
4 V; p) ]0 W5 e$ z
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year. B- [2 B8 r9 Z: \- {
2 `0 R Z s$ i& c' P' A“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
: i5 b' a4 n3 Z' K
; U i* I. } f+ Y8 t4 w# d7 n/ dAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
4 B# N) ?8 y5 z* _
+ l2 T" ^& Y& A2 x: s2 E3 @However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
( y0 I7 V% z f" F. Z7 T7 p" Z3 W
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
- ]6 r" D9 R; M5 r
0 d# g1 V8 b; ?4 }Related
$ r9 k6 v3 o+ yCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
1 S! g0 J5 b# y' lCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’. u; j- {( C1 z+ b- Q7 i; B. Y
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over# D3 U9 D. k$ w+ t. X/ o- [
Advertisement
8 ^- {3 _. \( d5 ?* ?4 { \ X+ L/ i. a; l' _
2 w9 r. ` T4 u9 U
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.. V$ Y6 u" Q; `) |- r
; S5 |( d6 b' T
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.” N8 y0 J7 Q/ m) g0 M
9 \( u$ x4 R2 y1 U1 _2 @
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
; X' a+ t. q: H- \: W* }; R& v
# k D4 B6 T# B$ r- J1 l* @0 }CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.' C$ o: Z$ C7 _6 t
9 E# C! B- v. d
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
. B) V, ?4 x m2 D8 O7 `+ t7 x% @ z1 i/ R: `
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions. i5 u1 I2 {. @6 s( y* e* Q0 ]
" r$ e' M1 t t$ @7 k5 f' \* E
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.) p. ]% _7 g/ ?9 ^
8 V, v4 P% ^9 e: R" ~$ i' `The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
2 n3 C) b$ h5 n& p8 ]: E
t, k8 k# o- _; s# e: N“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.6 _7 H# G3 ?+ e+ ]5 c2 i
3 h. B. e+ T* X/ O \1 [1 }Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%./ @+ |8 ]. j; ]7 J" n) _5 c
* g. z8 z9 y2 L7 T
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
