Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006

屯民 · 发表于 2006-9-29 08:09

Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable

- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -

TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
LePage Real Estate Services.

Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
residential real estate sector.

Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
(+13.2%).

"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
balanced market."

Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
breaking price appreciations.

Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.

In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
price appreciation when compared with 2005.

While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
are markedly different than those found in the United States.

Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."

<<
                           REGIONAL SUMMARIES
>>

Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
renovations.

The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.

The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.

In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
buyers with more options when looking for a home.

Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.

Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
making a purchase.

Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
amenities.

The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
residence, rather than for investment.

The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
the market.

In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
to the shortage of available inventory.

Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.

Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.

Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
towards the end of 2006.

While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
pressure on tight inventory levels.

Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.

<<
   Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Detached Bungalows             Standard Two Storey
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  2006 Q3    2005 Q3 Bungalow    2006 Q3    2005 Q3
Market          Average    Average % Change    Average    Average
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Halifax       186,333    173,333       7.5%    198,667    199,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charlottetown 145,000    141,000       2.8%    175,000    170,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Moncton       135,000    127,000       6.3%    129,000    123,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saint John    141,200    142,900    -1.2%          -          -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
St. John's    143,667    142,667       0.7%    200,667    202,333
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atlantic       150,240    145,380       3.3%    175,833    173,583
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montreal       213,691    203,500       5.0%    321,141    316,185
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ottawa          290,083    278,417       4.2%    285,667    273,250
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Toronto       373,368    355,882       4.9%    481,523    474,766
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winnipeg       181,579    159,860    13.6%    202,337    180,707
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saskatchewan    170,667    156,083       9.3%    182,600    166,500
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calgary       395,067    252,411    56.5%    405,778    264,389
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edmonton       286,857    194,857    47.2%    316,429    206,714
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vancouver       704,250    601,000    17.2%    794,000    697,500
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Victoria       375,000    348,000       7.8%    403,000    391,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
National       300,365    258,202    16.3%    365,380    322,860
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------
                           Standard Condominium
-------------------------------------------------------------
                  2-Storey    2006 Q3    2005 Q3    Condo
Market       % Change    Average    Average % Change
-------------------------------------------------------------
Halifax          -0.2%    142,000    103,000    37.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Charlottetown    2.9%    98,000    98,000       0.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moncton          4.9%          -          -       N/A
-------------------------------------------------------------
Saint John          N/A          -          -       N/A
-------------------------------------------------------------
St. John's       -0.8%    146,333    145,667       0.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Atlantic          1.3%    128,778    115,556    11.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Montreal          1.6%    193,190    188,016       2.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Ottawa             4.5%    181,083    172,250       5.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Toronto          1.4%    252,088    242,918       3.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Winnipeg          12.0%    105,648    96,008    10.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Saskatchewan       9.7%    106,250    101,000       5.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Calgary          53.5%    245,844    153,867    59.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Edmonton          53.1%    200,433    131,500    52.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Vancouver       13.8%    366,250    323,250    13.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Victoria          3.1%    229,000    220,000       4.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------
National          13.2%    211,562    185,296    14.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------
>>

Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
John and Victoria.

The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
November 15, 2006.
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
available for some areas back to the early 1970s.

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Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006

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