Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006

屯民

Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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, @$ c0 E' c! c3 Y$ J- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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3 ?8 e" H; T% g/ ^+ M    TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
3 z6 }% ~$ m/ C+ S! K+ q) xQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
8 ^. ^4 W' E* @" LLePage Real Estate Services.
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    Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
; G, N9 v1 K# eare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
residential real estate sector.
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8 F" C# X9 F, X4 O    Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
" p8 x( R3 j$ Y5 Nyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
(+13.2%).
6 l  j3 Y* S' e5 t
    "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
5 }( P9 D) K/ A' [3 ~& dpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
* Q9 G& _& f9 \" z6 c' u. e# Hpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
$ |4 Z7 Y( _* B7 Z5 Wwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
balanced market."
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    Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
0 h: ~# ~1 J7 R- Vconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
5 |' O4 _$ T1 U$ Eto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
$ U+ C( k- r: Q0 k9 \$ B  W* e/ Ymanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
: B# e- g9 i  X7 p. u) pbreaking price appreciations.
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. g) I* S1 [$ \- ^    Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
& N6 y6 h; \9 l) u( V5 h/ ]$ W" ]) g- Feconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
( ]/ e4 b! L/ D2 N( o# Ylargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
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    In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
/ H' A6 B0 l: r" Z+ S7 yslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
* ~" p* `2 @8 Q9 B8 x" WIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
% _0 o7 u$ u) A3 Q5 ?. V8 Jprice appreciation when compared with 2005.
6 N6 s  Y( }) x5 `5 s- ]
    While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
; t  j5 D3 O) U& Xfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
6 j$ T" l2 ?* N: h) ~are markedly different than those found in the United States.
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- ^: J. o7 I4 X- L    Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
$ |1 I% p% n) t6 c# ZAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
' C2 e, R- [" w5 P: Tfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
* ?  Z+ N% l; X2 Prelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
6 K" C; }/ O: x$ u: p3 baffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
' m! g) I7 J3 w$ V2 gdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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+ r  }5 g; u% A! K' e8 j$ G' N                             REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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0 ?! _; @+ C, \* t    Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
; S8 D8 ]) a  n; xrenovations.
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    The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
' M# [9 o1 V" w$ J9 c2 G1 O0 Qcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
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    The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
) J: a6 O5 I+ v4 M) w600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
' l7 P! q- R. M0 Vto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.

; ]; ?( P, }# i5 ^) c    In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
1 _2 [4 l& ^5 s" A# t) P9 xhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
9 P! q$ w# C. C& y/ E  d+ r3 kdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
# B' W  q$ s( S" p5 Kbuyers with more options when looking for a home.

5 I) w3 A  t2 K" l# z, W+ T/ K7 J    Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
1 q7 \" H7 F, K! ]as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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: b+ Z7 g5 c2 s0 }7 i- G    Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
- [- r# _  a0 Y. A% `levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
' O8 `3 ^5 N; gfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
& |8 A& F4 h* O3 D& |when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
making a purchase.
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    Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
  o. t2 x7 `! c1 q& x: K+ C% Gconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
7 ]+ x  a4 p" j7 `; F' Dattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
amenities.
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9 \7 M, b) P' i$ C5 M    The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
. m3 d3 _; p7 w# aresidence, rather than for investment.
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" r& B0 c. V- v( y, u    The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
; u1 j6 h/ n* u: rhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
% P7 n. U$ V! R5 R' N* I- ~! m( }# win a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
/ D' R$ ^) P' q' hconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
the market.
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    In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
  N8 k8 X) l- T8 h: R7 u, ]July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
- ]" R7 S8 t, f5 W! Z# R/ iAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
9 j# R5 @* p7 h# m7 B4 hmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
to the shortage of available inventory.
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    Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
+ B7 |4 Y- G* M. ^struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.

    Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
1 q7 T5 ~+ L' y& t) S$ q9 X- [2 B6 qunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
! Y) R. s  J+ t% gpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
; @: ]3 D: C7 B7 Aprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.

    Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
8 I2 ]8 C7 A7 L( |* ?as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
# k# t6 b2 x' b  P! Rremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
towards the end of 2006.   

! u! \6 x- v0 u; M3 FWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
  \( y3 T" k! B8 \2 l2 Zforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
pressure on tight inventory levels.

& v2 ^& D7 M* K! O; @: H    Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
3 |) w, M2 p6 h, L# |fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
! j& G; X! @, c. a) V0 wwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
% n8 l6 d. N* f2 C3 [4 Kfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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    <<
. S6 u* D% o$ d& |  ?9 F      Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
  ]. w$ B8 p( Y, }( G9 L6 [5 _
1 T; o. H/ [! v    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Detached Bungalows                Standard Two Storey
$ v0 z( \0 _$ e6 O# u9 s- [    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ]* l% ]( W& y8 j/ s$ t! C                     2006 Q3     2005 Q3    Bungalow     2006 Q3     2005 Q3
    Market           Average     Average    % Change     Average     Average
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; V3 x0 ~7 d4 a2 K    Halifax          186,333     173,333        7.5%     198,667     199,000
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Charlottetown    145,000     141,000        2.8%     175,000     170,000
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Moncton          135,000     127,000        6.3%     129,000     123,000
% W& K! [; r6 D/ [2 Y    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 V/ m, r1 R/ G1 D& T6 ~7 p' Q    Saint John       141,200     142,900       -1.2%           -           -
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ Z4 G* M' ~. k3 m( [    St. John's       143,667     142,667        0.7%     200,667     202,333
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 R& n& x% c1 q4 y6 a3 b, A, n    Atlantic         150,240     145,380        3.3%     175,833     173,583
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Montreal         213,691     203,500        5.0%     321,141     316,185
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
. p4 b- ?" x4 f    Ottawa           290,083     278,417        4.2%     285,667     273,250
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
  e) ^- @4 m7 q) p    Toronto          373,368     355,882        4.9%     481,523     474,766
5 D$ J- K4 `0 j7 t" S! Q  e+ k4 z/ ~    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 s  x7 V8 T. ^: r# F2 U6 a9 q    Winnipeg         181,579     159,860       13.6%     202,337     180,707
2 ?( c4 N  l( m1 A+ c, R    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Saskatchewan     170,667     156,083        9.3%     182,600     166,500
% A+ n$ W* @9 b+ v; V    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Calgary          395,067     252,411       56.5%     405,778     264,389
% d7 u/ r' E9 S8 J. @) j" Y    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Edmonton         286,857     194,857       47.2%     316,429     206,714
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& X/ i9 l! e: i, d, L    Vancouver        704,250     601,000       17.2%     794,000     697,500
" f5 r3 I# x/ E$ k* Q- ~  a    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Victoria         375,000     348,000        7.8%     403,000     391,000
6 c5 w! Z4 `* f, x! f" |+ p2 j    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    National         300,365     258,202       16.3%     365,380     322,860
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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    -------------------------------------------------------------
+ j1 N8 Z% s: Z) l9 k                               Standard Condominium
    -------------------------------------------------------------
9 d5 S* H4 g# ^. P- y                    2-Storey     2006 Q3     2005 Q3       Condo
    Market          % Change     Average     Average    % Change
    -------------------------------------------------------------
* |! e' |( Y$ A0 d" _* C# C    Halifax            -0.2%     142,000     103,000       37.9%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
" X+ g6 f0 x: n    Charlottetown       2.9%      98,000      98,000        0.0%
6 |1 n& B$ T6 p% E) H) O5 s    -------------------------------------------------------------
6 q! g% [' B4 O3 Y8 s    Moncton             4.9%           -           -         N/A
! ]( p( V8 `9 y% I8 O    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Saint John           N/A           -           -         N/A
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    St. John's         -0.8%     146,333     145,667        0.5%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Atlantic            1.3%     128,778     115,556       11.4%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Montreal            1.6%     193,190     188,016        2.8%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
, Y, E" J; u9 z3 m6 R/ J) O. l" S* e    Ottawa              4.5%     181,083     172,250        5.1%
) m: Q) r: O# `5 B: J( O* J8 p    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Toronto             1.4%     252,088     242,918        3.8%
+ V2 z2 E, q! e* h! J8 s" T& J6 n    -------------------------------------------------------------
  t) D; U5 n! r- B0 S* f" l    Winnipeg           12.0%     105,648      96,008       10.0%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Saskatchewan        9.7%     106,250     101,000        5.2%
/ M% d, l. {. C( s0 _) C9 ]( U    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Calgary            53.5%     245,844     153,867       59.8%
; Z* V8 L. E/ M    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Edmonton           53.1%     200,433     131,500       52.4%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
+ j9 E$ }# o% T% J    Vancouver          13.8%     366,250     323,250       13.3%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Victoria            3.1%     229,000     220,000        4.1%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
2 K/ [6 {5 p' C8 c9 w* q    National           13.2%     211,562     185,296       14.2%
. D6 h; m; I# V9 [7 _    -------------------------------------------------------------
    >>

! a9 L/ u, Q: }  t1 R    Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
3 d( f4 C+ E8 {2 v* |1 z/ s* Z" ^( Iin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
# e4 E) G0 [* T# v8 ^: G4 nJohn and Victoria.

+ R" M5 u+ L( {- ?1 o$ s' D    The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
  G+ a, u* \, Z1 @comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
2 ^, K" o) w4 ?7 C- @8 A# h0 |housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
" S$ a& x- v$ H/ Etrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
5 V4 s3 C! M  T* K/ _/ T6 Ifigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
5 B7 c' E$ R- C  l) tNovember 15, 2006.
# h4 w* _8 \2 y- f$ m8 o, X    Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
7 s1 t) I1 }: C) O/ B+ i" q+ Tfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
* E$ x. F- a4 tprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
available for some areas back to the early 1970s.