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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX.../ K( u! s9 `* w/ @7 d. x

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. |, i4 N( z- @# O0 h# Z8 |The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
) u$ o4 w) V6 T3 }interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
, v' n+ J( @# w3 z3 y9 Hwill be going.( u8 E& S% ]: |: e6 g& y

! k  j, G  e; ~It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.( X& c3 a# W- q$ ~7 }9 t1 U

/ i; u. U% d3 F" Q7 t; N/ FThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by$ M+ v3 ?; Q& @, F( S
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an& `0 T' g! R: t  G0 N
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. * R, B' ?* \5 Z3 A, g1 Y, P1 Z/ I
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
6 Q5 j. \% l. ^6 vvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by/ J5 u& K$ [- v# M6 t/ F
how much.; y& L6 S4 a" I$ T; L
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,- F& Y4 V" \" ]* d
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very! S! K6 t( P1 G# e0 m
strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
0 h  E& Z7 i4 c7 w% z$ M* vfindings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -5 `7 [  a4 a- w' A. W( C, h
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best/ ?7 x3 t/ S" S  w
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact
5 U6 N  d# h& Fon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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) r! h' W# k0 V( V% j$ A% pTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
9 E& X; T0 e+ c5 amarket continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
* t& W1 `$ c4 I2 @the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
7 u6 H% _- ^8 V5 a: b9 t6 fsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
) @/ Z7 i- {' R' LThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
) H3 r) @) [" q# `! fincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
6 t6 w4 g) x9 Q8 xmonths.  
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4 s' ^4 F$ Z3 v. D* cComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
/ P% b, q& j. h3 i) ]% k( Pcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
, e2 ]) Q8 B2 c" O( afundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that3 ]) C" Y# x0 J$ d
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
* n3 H/ G: s$ x  t( o4 E; c8 r" buntil it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all" H, w' `' K, W6 F' l7 A2 ?8 h
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.2 h" r& g+ A- h* s( L9 Q

" m+ u& ~% |6 z. Y# o! HBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
# t" k' z2 O: k# z$ f1 g# F2005 to June 2006), also great news./ S$ U0 h; ~* O
: }+ L2 @3 H- T* F# s! p3 W3 p) J
By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
4 R/ C2 B' v2 o2006 New Housing Price Index for:1 g  Y% \" S2 S0 |$ v# K- a
1 Q% x4 z) y: U) B% @  l; i
Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
5 c6 }. e) T' P. b  F; S5 C( t" hSaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%, h8 C% j3 S" b$ ~
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
. s3 A6 j  ?5 R: QHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%0 V3 k) }8 b) I; m2 i' }% D
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
/ b* m/ v. [! U- t5 ~Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
# U! N! O% c4 x& _- Z* C4 f4 ~Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%4 t2 D! O) v" n2 O7 p/ j

8 b+ I$ C* ~& ~( G' T4 D) bFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
5 V- M3 a6 _- ?# E( V' vgives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!+ i! ]- Y* [  Y" h% d) T

9 d7 f  T! \# T6 U. Q- pAs the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to# q% Q# V4 A- p" w: C, G* p
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
( L+ h& o' Y6 v- U6 q3 bonly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
+ N' r/ y) _7 B' aincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to' Y) B! h% \- j# N/ K
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.. ^# `& d6 w$ v' w4 a& i

# m* c. J: \& x+ I2 ~1 UHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
. d* |3 V" r$ L* j8 P- \fundamentals:* f& e3 W( \) l, e) a

& R3 @. Y- B' j0 U6 e1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in9 E; M0 g  F" T0 R
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth, K6 O2 {8 h7 n4 v9 |, x+ e
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
7 x: u3 @& r& r2 Dthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.# P; Y- p, V* |7 ]
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the3 G  x# \) }5 }& `' c
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
5 n1 x+ B1 Y8 A! B( d5 Q* G0 ythe US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
' j2 f: S( _9 x; H5 @that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
, @! i" e) o! x+ k3 P
0 ?/ p, u( w" Y' r+ ]$ A( s3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment0 [) {0 {9 L, N- z7 E
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
( t$ U" H3 Q- N  x8 Y3 B; pDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after2 l( M2 R; n; {- n' Q
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest! I1 w) [! \5 b3 y$ z3 m, E- i3 ^
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again7 L* [/ j5 v0 Z3 H" ]7 E. ^
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the, T2 s5 l) [! s$ y6 {
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
& f+ ^* P& J% qbeat it for long term investment.
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4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
  J9 ?. r5 V- K% ha sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job' \' K: @( }: h, b  \
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
# L  F& I' E9 h; e  T"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
6 q0 _$ ^/ h* D* U0 ?" }1 RJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
! Q# I, X+ a" `* a8 a' r9 e
, n' W; q; \+ pStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
5 e! S/ S5 y# p. _first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
. d3 g' H# p, l# h/ O5 f7 ]% Jeconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of2 D# q5 d2 E% n8 |
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not& }3 U9 H& L, l8 U) S
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with. N) a4 i1 g% c$ b: ^: i
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at" y! t/ s) Q6 }4 [# P. y( i5 K6 p
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate5 V4 z2 v0 A' \
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
& }" }5 b) g% |0 Hwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.5 H2 C, ~8 ?' {6 M1 U

: }8 }% g6 p- O; Y$ V" L  r3 c" g3 t4 N/ F" }5 i
In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
. K0 t" y, W% N: peconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed& S% U( D6 _- ~6 a) n
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do: l& D/ h6 B6 S$ K- t! f
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the9 A+ X& I, q' I, j
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the. W- X9 _. }- U. {
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
7 c4 x: w6 j6 E, D7 R* Y% uand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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: [. N: S) n# q* r: U- iCapital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
+ f4 A7 o: Z$ ?' L7 k: ~Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see! j7 R4 p* r5 q% I" O
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:) h2 i% n/ L, y3 L( f
" V6 K. C) a! ^$ Q0 L* E
BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
4 Y7 L$ ]  E) }; S5 \7 r( V  rAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%9 Q. L1 A: H* G; T. F
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%; R9 A( m% f3 a! a: q7 ]* ~9 D
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%) I# e) U" U/ @2 [
ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%+ z" T  y' Z" N" a
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%
0 T! h# l- l( x  G+ t6 A- k& {NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
9 Q  d& t! @- K& ~3 @/ hNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%% h7 i4 d: {% o3 y  G
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
2 x- l7 p. f2 T# vNF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
# S- |. o4 _5 w
7 u" d, t' `1 t" cLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term8 \& E6 v' r& S% Y" x) n8 l! B
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
: f3 Z! S" ^0 k9 Vtheir profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
$ r: a2 \8 W5 Q0 T/ X9 |4 i0 G" Zopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of6 s% j$ S0 W! l" C/ n, x/ v: K7 ^& X
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'* A" Z9 k5 l+ \- J4 t0 A7 o: b3 [
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion( u8 d' d3 V5 u! O* V6 n9 Q
when you take action as a full REIN Member.3 b9 |. U; T" {+ g# Y) P, V
! I# x5 _% F9 m
Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the% u9 ]. }; W9 c2 m0 J6 Y& G: n  U: l
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表" o8 b6 B1 w5 @* {* k7 z/ G
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
4 @+ j; u. u# v' ], q/ A& T' l- r8 V% L  M# O( ]& r8 A
) z, N, J& B" s3 s
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
1 e! Q1 M# i8 o7 Rinteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
2 O/ \8 y4 ?" R* N# [. A' V  Vwill be  ...
9 x9 Z6 S" e: z
5 v2 E1 E. J3 m/ ~' l
谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
* u% [; ]' G5 a8 D& l  l. P6 \- o& R2 S% }5 ^3 K- s
http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49  ?  E+ o: f$ [  Q0 l* @! ]
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You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.3 H0 x" Z1 n% s/ r3 F) h7 E

* T. m, Y# @: z3 ]' J# ]http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。# T2 K% S4 [& W& ]$ G4 x* g

8 W$ F5 r9 s( h8 [7 Q* S" y% `***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表% L+ D! f2 W( H- ^7 g  O3 O2 q
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
0 `/ T8 l5 {5 f, \1 z# K5 y
+ Z  L  G) ^3 i' P5 {* A( N0 ?1 L* ~
With close to 3,000 net new people into  S2 C* ~+ V. m2 ^5 T9 [. v0 e
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
: E0 Q- Y" n5 f$ U! y4 r  Q" i3 ~saw the New Housing Price Index ...
8 m6 m1 `0 `+ x9 V& d, d( q
[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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