市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
% Q; H) ]" Q0 Q+ sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
. E: e6 Q. r% B: r! k Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ P' s' y( K8 Q6 u$ h& s( Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 K+ i# }; O* V9 J, o3 [+ U, q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- M$ M$ K) b+ O: vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 ]1 b) b4 G' r+ f1 a7 r; ? Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( L, q% m' \6 y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. P1 w" _9 i9 d# [& a' ]impose liquidation values.
0 ~: P! P( t: R9 o( q" c, z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 S# N( y  J9 X/ {! G- O9 yAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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; b& ~* C+ f4 vA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  d; g) X! `, Q  jSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 r- q: \8 E9 }) `then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 Z6 a( p: l: y3 c( wbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ q4 ]) _. [# n- G$ o/ H1 y% ?" U& daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) }! Z* j* I3 Q, @6 r Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 B; U3 M) l- P4 X- [- D1 F/ [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 G' `6 \# D3 Dbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
! s# P. \1 @3 r3 k) u4 T$ A Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
% m- }/ A4 F' A9 X( @# A; j2 G As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
! A+ @; Z2 B2 [6 L' A* d$ X# c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 X$ C$ n5 q3 Q* t4 o3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
6 `0 M3 r/ z7 t& P! w4 u The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: o; \7 U/ O, u/ y) s) V; {but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ G& p) V9 g% v' jItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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; V: K0 `$ g7 h; h$ j We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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