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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation7 ]/ ?4 d4 ^3 a: M; |# D3 v4 G. J
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 m# E' W* R7 K/ ^% n" mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- r J7 r" G8 ?1 ^! t4 S& P
impose liquidation values.. {; J2 ^" u( @, o8 }9 f
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 t% Z0 e; ~! x1 Z; wAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& T# b4 Y2 q+ |' n The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 Z! p8 g3 n% X1 k" ~
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 n/ H: q6 q W# C9 R
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A look at credit markets% n# N J3 s- E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: M2 H+ G+ a3 M- Y( _* d
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) p* S# `6 y2 D' K+ _7 a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 I# H$ E& J( Y$ T+ a/ H3 }7 F
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: E% B: r; ~9 U, t6 Q( i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 Z- f7 B1 n$ I1 p# q3 z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: Y L2 `8 _3 t0 d$ GCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 C& ^! e) O" K/ |# w6 Opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( v& o! c' }( C0 u3 }# y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. C6 W) n% v( H5 |8 y2 p6 Rfinding financing.1 |8 a: T4 I: T0 l9 P2 _* n' T+ v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they I8 V/ h2 Y, |
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* h2 }! Y5 [8 S7 p' ` Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 F8 t* D' l3 {* Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; o/ N! c: a; K( d2 M7 h- g
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" b6 Z# |8 ]2 p4 `# w+ C
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( U8 s. A% n5 C+ n( T9 F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ j4 w- ?+ G) q) A
today.
* T3 X( u; N9 U _, M Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 P/ W# B. |2 n1 k+ R* U# i8 o
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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