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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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) O) t5 M" X8 r6 LMarket Commentary4 ~! o, ]0 `' A, u
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 E2 J2 A# f7 e2 g
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ G4 ^2 Y- `# U9 X( i
Signature Global Advisors
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2 S# a0 {  E4 d: O; y. A- N/ ?Background remarks  x5 K1 p  y1 ~# o; m% i5 v1 A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 v9 ?8 c4 r, q3 F
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 g) W+ E. u& G6 A4 g/ T( `) J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ j2 q2 h& k% h# f1 F% a" U% Badjustments.- t5 j+ [7 y6 A% L( O1 m
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. R5 H1 B* D# N& p, lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) x0 J7 p  V6 @# i, L. G Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 |% K6 I2 P: M4 Y3 {) Rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ m' X' I8 \) B We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% ^1 d$ H  y, ^% h+ w
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.( B+ A6 U4 [" Q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* R4 e( t  P6 S' cquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: Z; a# Z4 O7 T Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( G. C6 G0 S5 w- C2 C. R+ h Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ J1 q: t" e% ]
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& j0 ?8 {. ]% G$ b+ q8 v The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: [$ b! U& w  g0 u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. e* T3 x/ I  Y
impose liquidation values.
8 u" W1 s' }+ t2 O7 U' y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 F- \: J6 e; J( {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.7 ?' t) l1 r! Z8 J% [
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ l+ Q8 [+ i9 S; Y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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6 d" g# m# ?" ?# a/ P& p) E: @A look at credit markets+ @# K" n5 ]5 s# c6 n, g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  o0 u9 f  G0 ]& Q3 R2 z" `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 M7 _9 M' Q; ]$ `; m, { High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- a# h9 E" U) [) ~* _; u
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( V  n7 E5 e/ j
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ Y. {0 ~9 b2 h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) z3 v' b6 g! }9 d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 w' t( E! w5 c# E6 ?positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# ]# Q  R0 W& n+ M( ]
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 ]4 T  z6 V: x$ ofinding financing.
" }$ J: B( h" { Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) _! S  L" y0 [' Y: V" r8 z7 d& Vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 ^2 @; w: N6 r$ Q0 d! B% h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! ~" y+ v" z* t/ gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* L$ J2 b+ O: l+ `; I1 v5 \. Wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, b) b) b3 @; E% Y/ jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# D. E1 T; h4 @) X& S# b
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ a5 a) d0 F. `" D% xtoday.
/ ]+ G# Q/ M& ?6 m, M  b  M Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% Q" e' J+ t3 F& T, m
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( i5 v& O/ z( s* R& ?! M% R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 g& A3 f6 D; ^1 A) Q# C
the Greek default.
2 Q% o' H6 Z2 q# O As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, u5 }6 x% g3 O1 M. c) y3 u& w1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& ?9 [8 L; F/ d1 t( Q/ S) Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# |! h2 B: V! }5 T( r
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 _/ |2 [1 u* ~  c3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing2 \9 ^( ]* X2 P# Y# ?6 m
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  v( e9 W% r" y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." t) @, p# S9 @+ i0 A9 a6 v6 n
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Beyond Greece
0 d5 J# f/ ^4 {( \ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" f8 }/ b$ t/ Wbut that was before Italy.1 w) z+ ^+ n5 _' ^& m
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 i1 ?1 D9 r* _: w% C( v
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ y, @* w2 T6 p) U! {' q
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further." S% v2 E  q8 x" i7 _
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Conclusion- D& w: d9 n3 U; ?8 l3 p, a
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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