市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
1 r: g+ v3 M: M+ fEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) }: e- |, j0 ~) l! wJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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- w- y* G  _4 V! @5 YBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ [' a1 S2 }: L  u/ L- \- wadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 ?; ], ~( l; C# G$ S Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* \  K" F. C( c3 A- a; C5 z) D+ Madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' o4 M/ ^0 ]( v6 L& L* y4 q5 N Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 a/ z; Y4 \0 B& \) ~% O Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
, A4 `0 }7 o8 I3 ]/ w* _as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  u  R% E! d+ B( T1 P5 z% ^impose liquidation values.
/ q( V2 }  M5 R+ f6 K. a In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 ^$ U7 I: J+ `6 @( ~6 E; B, MAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: @& A: ]- e- N/ n3 ?4 B+ ~3 Q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% A) `4 j( C4 a( B: A) Ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( g7 A; X( A9 R9 |) K5 A5 @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& ~3 ]1 K! d* `$ ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* S$ _' L3 m3 x9 r Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
5 m- h2 t1 i* s" M6 ?6 L0 \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% ?$ M9 V7 V% Y  m( N. Owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, H5 f6 ]7 i5 C% b+ Z' Q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
3 c* l+ v1 X- F$ V" J1 x1 }' Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ j) H# e* q/ Qtoday.
$ b$ t8 j: O0 {) A. I Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
% i* ], y" o  Q# G) B Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ U* F& K4 c. `3 P+ B* ^" Zthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 m" ~1 e$ U% d% P4 Mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 p2 O+ j- r5 [7 y) ~6 K. s' C4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
$ T. F# [/ N0 p# Y# P" J' ~8 P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; u. A5 D# ^. d! \, q" ibut that was before Italy.
* \0 J8 h. V& H) e; b% j It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
$ K" L! z6 A# C0 L  P We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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