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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 _' v* K3 ?" ~& e6 E3 a6 X
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* `$ U* y J8 x. D, P: {, kmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& @# Z- n0 L2 b. l& n) Z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! ^4 E4 G! x; m$ E5 m0 G/ Xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 l% z/ ?0 J, h7 h, o1 [" X% D1 ]
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 F8 q2 m( K! osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is8 `2 Q7 f5 n; b5 v
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 ]$ d1 v& T3 L8 ~1 n* x7 t) K) @5 lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; M0 b' _9 c( v) G/ l: @
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ ^! F- n$ V$ {9 O; V9 |worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: j. g0 l) F4 [2 }4 [
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: I+ c1 q! ~6 w. p0 xsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; b3 o3 {# `. ?8 |' v+ v' V
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 P+ a* T( C- g9 h# K" e f
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& Y( X0 i/ ? }# P5 c! f! k
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.5 @: Z$ x3 e% E0 ~* z2 Q( I
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: u' j, \% G% E* p5 j4 o) v+ B7 w
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 v+ A9 C" N6 H: m: Athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% d, S/ O# ~8 F! Q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ f$ {$ g4 J9 smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 ]/ v; d- ^9 x1 I% E! Lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; j8 x$ U# I2 @) E5 O' S- W1 Nhistorically depressed levels.0 U! _0 V; I2 G: ?7 h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, z8 d1 v+ q7 Fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' t& L* K. T0 v C0 C* }prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, I$ g! }) t6 j! l$ Mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, Z, Z8 Q% q0 W `. E! [
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 C: i* E2 m9 V- ?& D7 D
months ahead," added Hogue.
T$ m* `* ]% j! }+ R% W RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 N2 y; I7 `% @+ k' N6 C; [. e
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 F3 P( w4 ` D5 b* Y) C0 E42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) ^$ `- X7 Q# {& r3 K: I3 A
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. M& O+ @2 E/ M/ G, f6 Ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these: S' P7 C& v, y
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! [+ j. s1 X% k5 `0 e& P! F- w* ?" mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: z/ N4 i0 S" `7 ~ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* S) [; v& _# L+ ~% g3 a
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 s5 C0 `! a2 H" ~ F. j9 Xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 E3 C5 k* [! d0 ^
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 Z0 M* M8 a. v& s
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& I7 E' V _8 m; D. Z2 u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: y% Q, b x# }0 S$ \5 \$ G1 hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) V# K6 |; J' ^ I# g& Y# H) `7 y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 ^( H# J3 Y& c3 s1 g" z
& K- j+ h3 R# Y$ ^2 H' Z <<9 f# D/ B3 V7 {/ @$ n/ k5 t
Highlights from across Canada:7 r# n S( U9 [5 T( g5 x# f1 I
6 h. {% M2 \5 J' g# w - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
; I# a. ?7 R; W- r1 K intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
* T: K9 t8 x$ _+ k, [4 R home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' ]! n$ g6 m j; q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 J3 d, @! q# T4 f: |8 `0 ] since about the middle of 2007.1 c/ ?/ o/ T7 s4 A1 _8 X
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 g- A M1 q8 e. `% |" U
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 {* z. | ?: y. u
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& N% Q1 n9 [ D; b largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: c# C/ b8 t' a3 J5 t+ b
poor affordability levels.
+ P n/ H1 p( _ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" \; d* Y, e4 J5 e D9 W' p. N
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
0 E% z: ~" E Y8 t: M; H w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.# w5 o4 R" e8 u% R7 p! x
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 g! Q- g! ?1 q% O7 e minimize any downside risks.
. {; p) ~0 a/ ]" D- \ M0 E - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 |, r/ I' T* G# Z4 g! ^+ h% e& b conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ M# K% B# U0 N' |' s$ s2 F0 N
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 f8 m; t" `. ]5 E+ |: H A/ L, ` 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 i- N" b! K8 r' u" V ?8 [
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 m) r! R [! T- L! i# u - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) v2 u3 O% A8 f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 r, p5 |, {. ]* ]+ G far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ f* S; F' u: C; `1 F reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 Q* z f" \4 s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, V( o5 y- B1 R) {* P4 k
modestly in recent years.
) N* c1 f. G; d/ B$ [ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 e3 g# }) @. l" d0 A0 q" p general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! C% O8 p5 q$ ~/ y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) @0 C) M' R" [7 y- Y! I5 C price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( o/ z: ]" N2 o* U7 p, G0 W following two years of deterioration.
6 [3 {5 Z9 ]9 H& w! w a5 C >> |
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