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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( v, f7 {2 S+ u# t TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; D, {. e, W: Z3 G2 F" J3 gmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! H6 q& G5 G. W* L( q/ [5 Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 m& Y& E% d; J9 ~
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* a' V4 j, [( S8 ~9 U
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", ~8 G5 D8 n! i$ g$ I, B
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ R, c# u* Y4 l& m) X
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 t# S2 O: ^2 O+ D4 U- Imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") f; {8 A2 F. K3 Z, q: u" |
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: M5 E4 V: K/ ~2 d
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. A+ P* O- e Q4 d' p
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. `) ^0 Z1 I; ^( Y ^& U
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% a: \0 Y8 Y; ]6 v4 Q9 @1 B
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 n% t2 L! k4 i ^1 b5 \# m; \3 E1 p0 D
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: \0 V' j% [! c* i! ^( D8 U8 G) D# lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 B1 W* s! N5 Z: y: i* z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 _. c: y O: I1 W8 [+ S8 c4 |9 y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 Y( q7 |' T. |% b8 x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.2 I' d1 a( J! D. Z5 s# G9 A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. N0 ^! X2 j! Q' y5 P! e
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 {- J' r+ u, X: g5 T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 h) X) n7 v3 g/ x- rhistorically depressed levels.9 K* i7 D/ C0 P, O3 H
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! @. f# X. \% z3 d% }2 U- aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 c' D' D$ ~; Z6 x& a- G) Nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, x3 X) L. _; k) P( n+ M0 ~
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ k6 {" g) R& a+ K. l( S {1 H+ ?enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the N# L- [: J3 s9 G) _3 _5 j Q
months ahead," added Hogue.% {: ]: y: v2 D+ A
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
* D! D( R( a" R. o' pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
D: `; |8 z; G( K+ d, \; [4 w42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 |1 @7 o: @ f' o \6 r The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# x, L. X( W- t" L& D
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 B* M$ N* ]5 D) L
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 ]: A( L9 [5 v0 j
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 U8 L7 V, \9 X8 A& _( i% l The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 n# M8 m0 _% }: ?& ^
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: L( I: O- u' I5 w) E) L- Y" Lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ ]( s& b+ ?2 {* b3 a( e" B$ F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( [+ X7 j- _! k3 t. G+ [; Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 \: b3 Y1 V1 L) `$ LFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, m* s! M3 w4 O1 Q- ]1 k
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% E* n/ L$ N! Y W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
. U' V1 |# U- F6 c+ V, ]! k; _- X
. F" k% E8 L4 }7 r% {' d <<
2 w' _: P5 A% U1 T Highlights from across Canada: m7 k" M. Y) V# F
8 Z8 F( O5 J# A" K" X( R& W/ I9 [& T
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( v9 @$ _; J4 T* t: I! W# J' d intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) m! \: G* A& |9 l$ t home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound2 R( A. E4 E- D. a
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, f: Y0 Q9 M2 [- T
since about the middle of 2007.
6 h3 `8 m' G% m# i& s - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 @, V$ S) o1 l1 G/ n2 y1 P
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; c! w% ?5 Y, W7 C9 }0 h, W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 \ A; @0 Q9 P) i7 z% W; ?+ m largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely! R: ~2 R* m5 b; r9 E) L. x o
poor affordability levels./ A! S7 [0 C7 O9 n
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
7 A; c+ i3 z" E7 X, ? vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 @. T1 t7 T9 l: r# M- y6 m: L% T
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.' t& {2 Z, R) k* P7 n" X
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to% ~& O4 Q" G) w6 B. _; ~
minimize any downside risks.7 v2 N; S$ H, c) G" b
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. K0 \4 u- b' a2 R9 S. y7 M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is i+ P$ u0 W- P) s. M8 z% K& T
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 {+ z% Q g& ^& `
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( k; g6 Z9 Z1 S' X9 A
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 J. \: N* M/ G# F# l o* ]# h5 {: i - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
' z9 i; C* |; f4 }/ ^1 D Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus; @- [ [& k5 W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- Z) `: Z: r9 n4 F3 g! G5 ~8 P reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" t/ ^6 Z! t3 @# A+ ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ _3 E( h b3 N u6 o/ ^# Z modestly in recent years.
$ z) g/ z. V' ^- x - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" y7 N( x# P8 |/ t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! n1 X, e @) H0 ~ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ f$ t" u R$ ^* f% A
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
# o8 X6 |* v7 p following two years of deterioration.
# o9 G' M0 |* B* x1 ` >> |
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