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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; A/ ]+ s. R8 O( N# m9 n, y
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- d3 j$ C' K% t* I5 R7 H( h
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 d: v5 G4 @0 w9 X( G! h- h6 q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 p* h) S8 K4 L+ T, I
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( A# C2 H" W% f% j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" r: I" t' [1 m. X+ J; qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" q) d# q5 h* }! l! iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- Q- c/ B8 |( Y- ~' U6 g9 d) A
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" o8 B, ]( y% u$ Q2 k
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! T6 b4 l6 Z+ G; ?1 Z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. z' E l/ B6 `% E+ W0 W
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% c0 \! e% ]$ J/ G: |- I
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes./ h" b Y7 ]2 N: z) @9 D
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ L% c2 R0 P1 o2 [6 I; a: A% \
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
* m& {4 }; @5 g" {0 N4 i. i8 lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
) D7 d# ?9 E8 _ \; P q2 gAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) f" A1 g$ Z8 p
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 G D% T. l6 U I
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
$ ]+ D. F3 k3 Y' r; [ h According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* _2 e: }2 ^- x. y: F# x
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 k* Q( r7 d6 L! Vthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at( _" ?5 R+ c: b/ ]* x
historically depressed levels.2 J$ `, r5 q* |: M8 w! Z
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ u) K+ e" ]9 l' U( T6 W5 a' I
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House @5 H* T6 B# S, N7 K
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% K: W3 n/ l" lhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' ~0 k' J8 j. U$ q5 [3 [4 Q
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 Z+ u4 z$ ?' m( ^& Zmonths ahead," added Hogue.
; S7 q, L4 ]( l ^* v1 A RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 f' i! u J5 P3 K( x2 x
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: o* m! u7 }- t42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 Z2 o2 t. b$ H4 i. i The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& c/ X8 q5 r7 |+ Z% K8 J$ sa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 @9 V2 R$ i$ ~, Q, Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# |" b" H/ j4 ?3 N; d! s& U |
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 g. ~0 y% `+ t The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( `. ~: r. |# S1 z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( |7 f5 A+ ~" j O7 ^$ m1 b6 _benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 m$ a9 |& z" }/ Y. |4 aincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 K7 m$ R* I* V; L& `. W
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. f$ K4 h' Z+ e# n
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ u- d" z* \1 \2 Ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, X3 F* n. ]" y' F
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 L4 u6 x0 c" w
. {; x& o. T7 u# V <<
3 y7 j6 M W7 n; I& | Highlights from across Canada:! x X4 R, x5 J7 Q6 o
0 N2 J( Z. c! q/ t% x/ Q/ j' q& x
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 J. v; l) a. s5 h; M/ H3 u& X7 A3 O
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ z* |; i4 c2 }# F home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, ?. c# X7 h6 \, p* ]$ R6 A% L only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- [; C4 u. X0 T( J; f5 _- ` since about the middle of 2007.. e, a# p7 J# b$ ~0 N% X
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the6 U. z! k9 V: e2 Z
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to: |( |# Q% h! u2 s: e! G
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still+ K9 d3 D. g9 t( \' P- ~0 [" L3 `8 r
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
5 G8 }7 z9 g3 R6 ]5 m poor affordability levels., @4 _( F4 ?0 g4 F# n, ~% c
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& j( o& ?4 Y3 A! @+ I& ?2 a9 x7 n vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 k. B8 ?& L ?% H$ O" \: a; O8 l
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.* A4 F% p1 e' |( T. }5 C
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 s3 U' A' s9 _ minimize any downside risks.
" |+ e' S& ^$ b( z/ l7 n E - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* p; T0 o; }# p& d R
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 e9 G! l. o& \4 t
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early1 B& Q$ u2 n" H9 r# j. t9 s
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) b/ U/ C2 Y. u) @4 i. O
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 E# T& t: w: ~$ h% ~& } - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in; ]; n4 B9 d6 x4 [
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
+ {+ s, m6 }& ]/ d* c( C far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- o/ H( b+ g3 f- v5 O) i
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ U& `* r9 V6 _+ w6 a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 c" V9 N) X, g+ c t2 P
modestly in recent years.6 g8 N. x5 _& S( \
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
3 z, P, l" k- M0 L) V$ g5 ~ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
* j: O* J+ p- R s8 o! y5 ] spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( i+ [7 C( S1 {; K: E9 M price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& a+ b$ ?6 V3 v/ `7 z& A9 O H following two years of deterioration.
, F5 ]- O! e) F& k) [2 q7 y( A+ ?2 G >> |
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