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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + L, {. ?" s! I: X' T' R" P1 Z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 \; S+ l3 T. [( M, F* [7 K$ fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! ~/ ?7 Z( z* u2 e6 g; w+ vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ f: f7 t8 a) v( J# O" k
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 O7 z8 e$ O: m
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 u1 Q" X3 X' v9 R5 isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 Z- ~7 L: A1 A8 i5 ^) iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ |( P5 W1 }5 U5 Bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 D; d0 l; B8 [; N2 N( E7 d/ F
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 J. C/ {3 n8 Y. K5 N+ E9 A" @- p( Z) ^worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: s) l% E* P/ E9 B! c2 p! [which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' v. y3 [2 j- @! o% i4 G6 e2 k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 ?' U8 z7 C" V$ C The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 l u) i/ s7 q. O/ d: f6 _
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ P2 |0 q% c! B8 K5 k5 P/ L. F& V8 \
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ a J) n- t" @; E* K( \2 K
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 P0 Q$ @; e1 u9 C4 c# m/ }5 Ustandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( s$ x8 z, {! q' A0 k8 rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.: b: Q% X: _" L: Y; } t1 c5 w
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 Y. \8 \7 W- S4 X! U
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ f6 g5 D) s6 `& I
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 p- p8 l* T+ f# \: @
historically depressed levels.
% K, o! M% G v' Q- k Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 H' C9 T/ b& e) m: |2 Z: [of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
8 J- A, q. l6 R7 @4 Q/ ]prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
' C, s+ B2 P! ]6 ]hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" o" y( a# b o) d
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" ] H- f) o3 Qmonths ahead," added Hogue./ i' j9 I# W y8 \
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; p: c( @5 ?( L' G3 M
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary; \! f' e, L% L! B* e8 C; ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# \+ X; @+ `& g" n2 r+ G# t% ^8 D The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 [* J- N) {1 u7 W$ {
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these( t$ d% O7 R4 q+ E% k( ?" {- ?7 ^
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% i: U$ ?( b4 d" v8 h$ \. u! @. s
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account." G0 T1 D. Q+ k; M( t) s3 M
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 G$ k- ]; p. }" cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* Q# y: N) v! P. R# o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 O7 o# o d, Jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 P" B% k/ U5 `% T# I( y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.5 b# R" D0 }6 J2 V3 X" _: Y5 N
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! i! {* @& W+ Q5 u: N# z9 Q. |
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
' ^9 h/ n; a- Z3 r$ Z; }& {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
( Q3 _7 \+ i0 N6 m ~1 A/ r4 A: Z* w
<<# d6 u' _% O1 E- ^" M! K/ E
Highlights from across Canada:
( z" D* d+ Q' {; L$ B3 c2 S* @ ] [; h1 p6 @
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ F! k+ Y3 M4 E: d! G
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) J$ W) d- Q) v4 F home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* ^1 K) T* {' _) W9 K
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track; B- g4 J7 a3 V. ^4 S+ U+ Y; _
since about the middle of 2007.- G+ r0 M$ L( [! w6 ^# P
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 s& O2 V5 [2 w: c% K' F+ \% y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; k$ D# B/ L" Q4 r1 d4 D) [ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' Z5 t4 O3 l& P) n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 l. T* ?- [* k poor affordability levels.
( Q J( j5 k6 Y9 Z - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 B$ M. H. g' \
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. i; h9 k0 e9 A) F7 |2 Q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
6 ?1 S& g. n' n$ v" h Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to! h7 L6 ?2 u3 {7 b
minimize any downside risks.
. C; C$ W. L' e: @ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* u7 h8 ~& v# ?& H% C' c conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ H! r, H' s8 m
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) w! k4 s$ i! t0 R( |5 f 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ C3 v8 L# h- K2 I- O0 ]2 k* |$ ]
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.8 \, _* u- s0 O2 m4 e7 |! }
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! R5 y) h; }8 x0 D! e9 K, X Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( I. Y" ^. U$ Y9 D* t1 Q! x
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up& z- H m' t3 L' n K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
f4 L* `! b5 d+ A/ _/ Q: W& c4 d ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 e/ W% d# z, q. T9 ^' X4 R. O
modestly in recent years.1 E: o: g# k$ u7 K
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the1 P9 @2 X6 P# p
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
n; V2 d4 l2 E% e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' U# y7 L7 p1 G& z6 E/ i
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 T' i# p9 x; a5 c8 }* X) F2 C following two years of deterioration.
8 w0 O5 u# O( F/ u: L >> |
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