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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 \$ w# J( p* V" Z( p1 p; K8 K, A0 G TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the% z# p& p- R; G6 M- u: |0 U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 |: z6 H; _8 f0 X% n! D+ H
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# H3 f" H' G8 {# j, m- k5 [& l" Maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." p' J$ o% C! N7 y# H" D; D% a' I
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
* R1 P# J* r% h& r2 L& l, N$ d' qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ F6 K2 p$ D' v/ Z0 T
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: B# a' w* z& w; n `! C- c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 ?% `6 s/ L2 s4 v9 r6 o
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* F" K$ \. L7 O/ @worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
' _' H' v& ?8 d! Jwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 S/ _1 s8 l6 s; m
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( w; f G; D! s
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* V8 t; f: m3 L$ F- g6 Xproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a( H% M) C$ d& f E
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& `7 R) R7 ]% i. C# `4 k
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
. _8 p, C! a0 t0 v, Jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 C* ^# g) D$ r4 @! x/ a" o* L
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' s" I7 @. I6 h( F According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 b' l: M: t3 W+ u
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 n& s) {% [+ N. n: Z! ]the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( p9 p, \8 y% j5 jhistorically depressed levels.3 x C, B- S/ S: X% U$ Y$ w- R
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 I) W( p$ P$ m0 O& u6 l$ E% W' Bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 f9 z. V6 J: i. p0 ]
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 J; e' Z! u/ }. g7 qhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! @9 a8 A' Z: e; N* Y6 F- zenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! c8 v4 F- j+ x% ]# k, qmonths ahead," added Hogue.
2 r- u# }5 H% A) t6 x RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
J3 j( B" {2 J0 L d7 Qcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! y7 o# ?+ W. S42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
" u( @4 A( p( w4 b% o The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' Q3 N/ d+ q I2 Z0 I# k' da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; h: |" y" Y$ V7 g- I4 E
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% F7 N) o8 t2 i! H( J
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
- v0 s' k) g+ A% o9 n; N N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 E" [' H5 i: u0 v- H+ f
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 @) g8 e* |: H7 n$ t5 p& j o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 B1 ^3 C1 g% M( E$ @. B
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% P. q0 l& c! t4 E
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% @, }: _( E% |( g0 V9 ^3 ]
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 M* L3 ` ^7 p- J6 o
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 w$ C( Y% @+ b6 w# [3 j2 t; R
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ y, p4 }1 @; ~" t% k
* U3 U% K9 Y$ l- q <<2 Q \0 ~! k4 y9 E: `+ \/ u7 F
Highlights from across Canada:
; h! e7 v$ j3 F& K2 R) n
h, \* L9 N- T! b - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: p' ]. S$ Z& Q' h" o
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) @8 x' @, f1 ~2 a& k8 K0 w
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 M( ~( G% v1 X' R' g4 u7 |0 C$ E only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 R: e" N% m. U
since about the middle of 2007.: r4 ^; S" g' J4 H1 e
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" r- l- J! I4 G5 A/ s; J2 x frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" Z: q1 X E; A% P% e5 i# a3 G
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* t& |- ~$ Z8 I" J1 p( e: w
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* |. R, P! s/ I" B poor affordability levels.
- s) S8 Q! s! \# R" O2 \ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
- U4 _) ?8 b# M* a3 J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and b- {& t: [: ~: |" w, c
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 G" K: |5 G& u3 Z. S' i1 O6 p* m% X
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ u( O" x" H( E0 S. e$ p B2 \
minimize any downside risks.2 U2 v$ `' j( U# [2 L# f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ }% x6 D9 d: e conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. [& @4 H$ Q+ b unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. |: t6 Y" q; Q* A$ n! R, V
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" U6 ~3 X5 k; s+ ?) g
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 }& [5 D7 H9 q# d* I& o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ T$ e0 `1 [ Y% i2 g
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 ?- D" U' f- \9 x: ~# G2 o$ ` far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up0 M9 P: m! G8 }
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 H1 X5 r* H. g9 S. ?
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- y2 F/ v4 H( H- d' P x modestly in recent years.
7 T6 v8 c; b: P, e( ? - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- L/ }* G1 c( s# m
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' d7 M1 a5 V! y: i1 I
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ I6 u3 L ~( | V
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 N) {* |- l( k1 M
following two years of deterioration.
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