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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 e& E! L. L, f( Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& _) B+ X* B0 B$ zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive) m9 d/ M* H" ~! C- M1 D
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ i) L7 i, p) j6 X8 kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; S; w1 p1 y, z# f. C4 f% S& j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 n; U* \; X. r8 @5 J
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( J! i4 l, D5 S# O* Qimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 ~! @" B6 i! u5 X3 ~0 Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! M# v' R/ t! }( e9 O9 ^5 n! l _% x
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" y$ r2 T3 a4 Q! z+ D! {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ G- P0 p2 ~5 @$ y. S5 |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 p2 e2 _" t" `) f" N" u' csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 |" [; ^- o4 D: z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 I- Q* `, y/ ^" A- P' I
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( a' a2 Q- u7 X3 P0 Y7 Ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% `6 r0 z' g1 p+ e* G2 Z$ u2 ^6 i: h
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
" p; `/ m* H. q# Z7 m' }5 q: _standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* |: f2 b; C8 N: E; ~& f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' [/ j5 R% e( F; N+ I
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
5 h7 p. {8 Z$ E- b" |/ r! U) wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) I/ y+ p8 `' Lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# F% Y6 K/ k" `- m( z6 M& Zhistorically depressed levels.
5 n2 S+ X- i# ]1 Z. H: k Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost5 R* k0 i* r+ p2 Q- E: G$ R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 W4 v5 _9 P( Z2 W) w) C) c1 gprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( B1 G% P2 b. H& s
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
Z3 u8 ?$ w4 P0 H# P' g/ `- Eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' k% q8 g8 O( K. `" y5 d: g
months ahead," added Hogue.
. O: ]1 }" C* c: ?( ], u5 J RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 H) F B, x0 v% ~5 S' u
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 Z \ q& Y v8 n& O9 H42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ b7 N& }8 U/ c4 B& Y$ R
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. o- d0 M+ d5 B5 ]
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these( @1 R3 b. Z N
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; N! E3 h8 z! X* }2 htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; l- }+ E' r9 Q) S" K: L6 W0 | The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 r& X% y. p, ^' }. K( c- D$ y
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: z0 } E/ d' N6 D9 }5 b, y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
4 K x2 M0 d0 v) f/ _: Dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
j) E* @! M: P$ f, J2 Fcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
O& ?7 L" p# X8 G' N" L' xFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 m' I. j9 D# n& I% E
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" o ~8 y: x9 |; \- y7 Y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ E$ x( y! j5 N2 x- U
: I1 p1 }3 c, h+ M7 N0 u Q <<
5 C- i# D& S8 I1 v l2 N+ I6 @ Highlights from across Canada:2 ]0 d9 S$ }8 ]) A2 Y
; t. G& [4 `' J3 ]8 }+ Q8 p
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ y! X" f5 o1 E8 G
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing* ^ q& L# R/ ?) a
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
: u& {2 x3 R2 m5 Z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 z5 S8 z# H& u9 k* { since about the middle of 2007.- j! v! [0 z' {# C
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 f! K! X3 A' b$ T8 l, K frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. b# p0 L5 e0 b) j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! S/ P2 M5 I4 r) @- F
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 h9 f" t& n9 ?. ~" h+ Z8 D5 D: C
poor affordability levels.! R0 Q) n; v$ ^7 a. A- P
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ V5 g# p" q/ w6 h' \& O$ ^3 a vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& G& |$ p, \6 o$ F3 p" J" |% A prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 V; P3 z9 j" Q; j( B1 w; a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# ]; h4 s- y9 ~4 ?8 z minimize any downside risks.
& Z0 D5 v* w! B' m- V7 H: ? - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ B' ^ T$ {4 s/ ^2 L
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, f' e7 O% B8 \ Y1 q' A1 p4 a unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early U9 M- I% @/ M) ~7 y( X, I2 H
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 @6 d- ^+ `0 @0 v
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. g6 L: S" y) d6 w# H# x3 K0 u
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* O! ]' ~' O' Y3 W, E: l0 d$ f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" }6 L2 D+ C& m far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 n, J; R* y. z6 h# [7 {1 x# R
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' H# g8 p( D3 f! X6 p/ T$ a+ r# G; C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: b; g& j8 `$ n. V7 l) ] modestly in recent years.
8 y- X! H6 b* X6 m - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# U* @' v3 z* S3 O( g2 J+ _4 N general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 C' z) k) q: f2 i+ f. v( E6 r spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 i( r' _5 f5 A3 w price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% C. h8 v5 p' [6 O following two years of deterioration.- }1 `0 S% s, v' {& u3 k K
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