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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) W3 g; \- [) A) P, P Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 t& W4 n* T# j4 o
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: O7 J3 v" {* Qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* B5 R t7 h% i
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." c' v/ s/ G+ M
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% h4 ]% u$ Y( \+ c3 Y. V8 s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ j' [* B: _+ G" t0 aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 J& v% [7 {) U( V
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; i9 ?/ I& D1 b RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 e/ B5 l, D) w+ [ b. u2 Z1 n
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- M* i, T& w6 ]" iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
3 S2 Q k4 Q8 c4 t L6 i! Isustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 S7 w5 ^8 A% V; p u The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( K3 R4 u- M" j& R- \8 n! uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: A- V" Z: L* v4 C2 B/ N
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& s9 l1 K' `1 r& q+ D2 dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( F& b( `+ }3 q+ X8 u/ T" estandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ W9 u; m/ H3 y+ n( i+ p. O
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 f1 t+ _, d3 l) B2 Y. Z
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 _* D, ]' s8 H% Lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
# U# _( }, _' q! \5 r9 Cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 M3 i3 F( E9 y0 h* c2 y
historically depressed levels.+ S1 H# T5 s2 y+ Y3 w, ?5 e1 h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost5 N4 `4 B9 W1 o0 ]( {; W( r
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 y8 v8 K+ j* N+ lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' S# t: L( B1 Z" W5 z; X
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: x5 @, j* E3 ?0 W; C: j+ kenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. ~1 ^: i9 _4 }+ T$ X2 x3 M
months ahead," added Hogue./ o9 d, ^; _5 I4 h
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 ?2 A/ ^. p0 i6 K- |% H: y$ Y
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) m' D& c* x7 Z) p0 D
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 q9 P: Y5 i4 j/ x% V The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* t0 g) C9 c, D% S+ C9 A; Ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these7 H" Y( j& T# E, F$ r7 | J
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. V8 h1 O# w8 \( G+ a; @
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
- i- g. I0 s( |) E0 S7 @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# t- B* @6 Q* K+ D; j) R8 E
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 ^4 b0 j& i, v0 v5 qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 d# X' y# r- `7 } ?, lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
% S1 z/ [8 Y# C4 Scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 s1 d0 v. O4 ~" U3 L, ~
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 Z# j" X' o9 v& T+ M0 h' ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 Q) B9 P6 N8 T y1 u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( n! a% Z% D0 T: o8 s2 z0 V$ O( X
7 [( A; W [& h% I <<
9 ?0 L& e/ X7 g- f) w Highlights from across Canada:
S) ~" F9 ]4 g1 V0 ^1 I
1 W2 w _8 [5 `2 t - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* y. X' Q# n9 W. l) l2 g, u
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 k. w) I( k& q7 ?$ @# j
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 g% N' C1 V) q: U
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
, d$ o1 ^) l; V" Q3 b since about the middle of 2007.
" g8 n P* i2 X' c: d - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* E# s! o, k2 U
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ i. w1 @* U2 Z: y, B
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ k( D! s% r* `# M- ~4 { largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
- B0 O- W) i- c1 O poor affordability levels.4 Y1 ?8 Z1 i& L+ `4 R8 r4 e. [
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* p+ G, e: L8 @
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) s1 p6 I( ]$ i3 Q1 _
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
6 M( x# G' U" F3 G, _9 ~$ p Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! d c. R6 X1 w T% b minimize any downside risks.4 a; U' U6 ~( ^% F8 |0 n
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% s$ R7 v; h7 _# N$ y5 y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 T9 z/ t; L$ C% t' R
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, R4 \& V6 A( @! ?6 ?: @/ z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) K2 v, }+ S3 C0 c
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
9 Z# M, x. R, j, G7 M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" `7 B; v) r' `. S Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 k3 A9 I J: _$ F. W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
8 {6 Z9 Q0 J5 a reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
% ]' i0 ^# k& k2 e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 E! G" b$ G# C' O5 I
modestly in recent years.
+ }9 d* D9 _' t3 i - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 A' l; c X1 `+ t, J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 B4 b; C$ a5 L5 M spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, L2 s' y% z* S/ I8 O) h6 b. ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ ~# G& z* S; P
following two years of deterioration.
7 X }% a& f. c( G >> |
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