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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
. x1 M$ F# E8 q# d. X9 K/ a TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
/ |% w9 E! x2 f( L: H. F% Q0 ^2 Zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ u, K& K2 G2 [0 ~5 I! [. E. i
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 B3 v0 V" t: {$ K$ @7 \- M1 j7 Kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 U- s2 Y& W" q: {; B n" L4 { "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ {0 A, M6 G- A5 }said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 a; F7 \6 Q1 d% c& ^
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 A( }, G. n* A
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 `/ f. q A" r' }4 i# o0 { RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ D+ U1 A* A# W* xworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ {( x# Y; s5 l, _
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 r1 f, u( G9 h f
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% w, u( l) z4 a: j- } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 [! v7 g/ w, N4 J% F9 y8 b4 b0 F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; O2 V/ S$ w# J, I
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% n2 X& z3 e% y2 D/ \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, W+ z6 ` l3 D' r, Z/ [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 W+ U7 s: w% I
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ F2 ^* r2 O+ Z& D1 K According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
9 x: Z% {: _% Q$ I8 ?$ {may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" Q$ B& Z: k4 H$ s. m# E3 f. @5 R
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 P8 k l6 {7 F
historically depressed levels.
4 s5 ~% F! ?8 ~6 `; E Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 u; z- V& H4 Y0 _; r$ d
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' ?8 C5 ^8 o7 ?# u1 l
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
1 r, ~2 B r f2 Rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This3 ~, f0 } h' F; \7 i' _
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. C$ T2 U! y7 d, ?; [9 B
months ahead," added Hogue.
0 d5 I: O1 z: Y$ {6 u RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 ~9 q/ w9 i6 @& t! p' v1 z
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" d5 _7 ]% Q/ x; F) A% R
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 p/ i2 W# y$ T3 k! f5 o$ S# l% z The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; p- e& o/ P+ U W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these& M9 y* ~$ E3 M8 G- J8 c3 a, g
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 L+ l5 p- J4 |- }! r
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: x6 @8 {" i4 g, G: z$ j" N! [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 V! h2 a1 R7 }- @
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. R0 m. _3 h$ X; z+ b$ O, wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# M4 M0 [' p! P; N( o T0 h+ w6 S
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 Z- m; x% {; u7 d
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
# Q, v7 F1 V$ I3 Q* M* bFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) f" [% p; c% n$ ~6 @+ d
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 g, S5 N+ `! n
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) B! k, R% T- C; X* J _" j
1 M9 g+ ]! J) r/ {. P- v7 r
<<6 L) {, I1 a+ |
Highlights from across Canada:
5 y1 w) O; E9 h9 S* I% _- m
- j1 @% m I2 X! T+ j* s) _* F3 n' S - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 T, J3 T' B0 S! W" `5 E1 i2 |+ t# Q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! n6 u3 }4 O+ H9 G home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: H; |. t+ O9 B8 R' n
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( \1 m) N, G5 _) V* j5 F2 `! ` since about the middle of 2007.
. F: C1 B1 L% K4 k9 H - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the N, W5 I( p8 J" O- X$ D4 [
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- C O$ A8 o: q3 n2 Z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ N- H- Z4 a. Y8 v! j
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 ?! W( e7 O9 [ [
poor affordability levels.
7 ?7 e1 c4 l7 O# |4 w8 j - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 i6 k, ^8 D9 g9 W& @0 M8 H% Z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) X7 L! X9 U3 E( c$ Y+ k
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.9 ^, k: ^2 B' P# G0 |
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 V5 e8 U2 n! J- g; O1 t minimize any downside risks.
0 R: m6 B; F( B& C$ }6 E) a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" _+ O3 k% f1 C; Q1 v
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& v: N6 n; G. m0 `7 h( W
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' s# t/ [3 F& w+ R" |# l) p. N$ v 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, W% |7 x/ s# n2 x
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- m& P& [' P5 V* F2 K, K4 S2 w0 a8 M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ p: p4 Z/ j6 K( c& I- M c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 {! L4 U4 U5 e far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ J n- Y' D W% H' ` E reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; x0 B8 y1 G' w4 y, N ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 e: k! S8 E* v' f
modestly in recent years.
[1 T+ j, @( c - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( G4 ]1 l( x# z) n! _- s general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 L/ n }! B6 Z y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* t, y& M5 N4 p+ Y% q" A price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 D* N1 p9 N) W6 K1 {2 j4 s following two years of deterioration.
& K; m. u$ S- w. N2 Z m& i >> |
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