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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
( o9 \6 T5 ?: G5 l6 _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ F: C; j" U1 Z1 [5 I" }' ~boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 n, b# Z' c, O# x# V* Y- L
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to4 i3 c/ V" ?. }5 j! ?
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ E1 ^1 ~4 c" z: k# F
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 A7 ^* z/ A& K# G" s
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. i# n' M# i" s( [: [
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 E/ X2 X# N: h9 }may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 L, t6 ~+ ]5 Upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed& b8 R, f3 c. G" J+ P9 Q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 w; u- e5 x4 N/ d& dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 f8 W1 _- _2 z4 U1 `, P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. y7 G+ E2 s$ V+ g# k* g7 Y7 h, ~. t
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ F! } L9 J8 z8 ?2 J( vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 m( m7 \7 _9 {! t, q
30,000 new households will form in the province during1 ~3 v/ P" b8 t0 {8 _
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# B% u& P' w: Q! @) ]
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
& V6 h9 ^3 E# G( ?: \, O& ~ Ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. f: ?( A9 C' `; d3 L2 z# p
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) R) z6 H( o+ P0 @, e: Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' \' X, J5 I6 J' ?% { Z) chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 m% s( x- j% b; o6 c- L7 O ^
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, s3 C2 F& {( q3 j9 Z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 C4 C8 \- A- gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 C$ a# z+ F- R- c$ fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ R$ L( A3 A1 x7 q% J6 ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# T0 i6 X+ Y: o( i: S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# e6 T; f* W) k
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( g( A0 v/ k/ x
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) d0 H2 U! x5 ^2 O$ }& {8 Y/ yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& i7 [6 K! Z% }' J$ K1 l( Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; A q" ^0 D/ P Z7 wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ ^" R, [6 J S, a3 R1 X& eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 \5 T4 r. ^8 ^+ M4 l5 ~' d2 ~: Rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- d4 X) T0 J' _$ x, m5 f
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 [! }7 q; o2 F% r+ d; d0 ?6 o+ n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., \: B a a3 m" v# _1 @
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ w" X9 |- L0 c1 Y, i2 i
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 O0 D. H( B7 wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
& U) E# m9 |. U4 M! jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 ~$ @; o& w a" c# e+ |7 p E
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! K; W) O: C7 Z- e. ?9 L& T1 d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& g0 K0 _5 G8 Z B1 Ethough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* ?. C. E' d7 T( u" B2 son average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* B( `; M+ C7 g; ~
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 t* B% P5 D1 x4 @0 ]* Y; c4 fresale price in February is evidence that past prices% E% q' [- |5 P8 b% ` d. g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* A5 J, _; k7 yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 b1 u* Y- C% |2 T- y1 r& Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ _8 z+ G+ b2 E& h. @4 Y% {4 h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
q5 X0 s! W# y; \' E# Kleg down over 2009.
9 _' `- H. ?. Y$ y2 }# ~3 E2 y. [ U. \4 s& L* u) Z3 k: {
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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