埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2180|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.1 B8 X& ?% \9 T8 ?0 B
: E$ i. L( ]/ |& I4 ]  S# q
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 9 D& b7 G! W# l& d
5 Z# u2 N( w! X/ Z& x
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
( \$ ?- C9 _, b  v8 S* y) k
( R# D8 U1 w0 W! [* `( V$ @  t"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
' q/ J% J7 k; i+ M( q" o  N, Q
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
5 J! M' ^% @' w1 {' R" O! b2 o6 f) a0 m
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.6 W% \8 c& s' ]# c, s

" p8 R( Q4 a$ T& k6 a"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. # F/ X: K' v1 h! o( h9 ]

/ c' f. ~* d7 C& t5 H: uTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.6 G/ J8 k9 ]' b" g  w
$ J$ O4 \3 M  V1 T! Q+ n
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ! D9 n4 A4 }: W; V

4 R  [/ X) L4 _  W9 s; R* Y. g. Ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
7 r& o* z' v: F4 w% }, a7 _$ |
- c" D; m( I0 G) e# Z& \
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
% o& O& x% L5 I, L# t3 L1 p" u+ j
7 N4 F$ h, ~, G4 ][ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。, O. i# M8 I; t  B
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( F$ {. J; ~5 n2 m8 i/ d( }: \' o

! f; ~: [4 j% f5 i1 B[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 X0 ~! M4 k3 B* X$ k% L0 W
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
1 v) c5 `" V4 w* ^/ |. q
很多人都回学校深造去了
5 G6 {4 u# n$ m! P% O, b+ c4 O( Q5 P; ?" m嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta' d  F8 I& c+ d$ m" K' l* s0 G" [
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 }- X6 Z/ t$ ?0 A; l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 `( m4 `9 ~; q( q1 ?are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( y4 n& C+ ~8 I3 @0 b
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" Q- z: ]% a$ }9 Q* s* C
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ ^, F" _# ^. }& |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 w' }3 j0 X' k9 e! P2 y0 l- Z1 v7 ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 V0 B0 ]& U1 b& ^) @5 }
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 Z& Z, r( g# G; @: [6 H# i& v
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 h0 z- d9 O6 w+ zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& k# C" ^1 l& l+ b/ C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ D, L' f$ S0 m8 ^4 ?prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* V0 @) t% W$ d- o7 T
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 [# ]9 ~. s5 e+ `3 X
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! R5 e6 G4 E- }3 g7 P% n# D30,000 new households will form in the province during
! y% S1 ]' k1 H4 w2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 n- Q6 L" y( ?% S/ |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 N' O9 w- Y; B! A7 h. ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* @4 m! E+ a1 m) c; y  Kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 U/ C% j0 {" n# f4 x4 Ahas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; ]  S4 X) e* S, M
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& p1 ?- ?; o4 M, R
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 ^3 k3 Q+ `3 `
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
1 u3 U! _. I7 zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 [+ k. e/ C) j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. o& Q: T  Y) ^  G1 H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* d# _  y0 k+ N9 g; U; u, C! H1 P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" x) H; N/ M6 L
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ Q/ c, e9 I) Etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, c6 [5 D( Y! g6 {unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; R+ C" }7 P2 @# Q5 f1 B. _: X
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& t5 [+ o/ p( I( K- A* l0 C
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- d4 o7 M2 I8 Y7 ]resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: `5 r0 H2 U! c7 e) _  `9 v4 Ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. [% v; R# ]  j) e3 n& uof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 P& L* z( V* N! u- x( Y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 V# g4 {! z" b! F* f; c5 |3 fThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  s( ?" [' I1 T+ t* Pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- m6 w$ D; B9 L6 _/ b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 M" _6 x' o% Q( _) l+ K& _housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& |7 J; W  r, O: P& D
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
* ]4 d6 p3 n- `# _1 Xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ ^7 K2 u2 }; A" o5 {- ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 r5 m- z) y! K( m3 ?; b
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 h- {- |- x' S6 s" U9 oThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' r+ v% T3 y8 U, W% l" presale price in February is evidence that past prices- h' K7 A) G/ ^4 b; y# _
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) {0 f6 M, u* l! H8 `homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
8 X% B  @+ F3 P. v- i  Z; qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! R8 l: J( K4 I6 q$ p. EAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%& ]( B3 N+ f" U. q7 S4 {& \
leg down over 2009.! ~+ ~& m$ `  z. E

, C+ ~- N, v# f9 u+ d: _[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 W+ f$ Q  G3 D0 u  y9 S! M
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
/ \3 b% M; e7 H! Z  g% y" }0 u

" y- o& _2 C) R9 T: {' u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
& B9 d/ W3 \# c# C4 i翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
: i3 X3 U& t3 K7 N' P
; K' Q5 v! L' V" n" O- {http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
/ U4 z& Y6 V7 E( A1 {
/ F, v9 v# }! a$ t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-7 15:42 , Processed in 0.108351 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表