No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
7 d) d- t# ~2 G, g2 Q5 n" T8 G
In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
' A: {* j% F/ n- Q( u" `* ]
& i: z( R7 x) r& j8 t$ o) }7 ["To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
% i" ]8 O/ z7 I/ \
As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
. }( t' B* J; {' K
"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

- Z% P/ i3 P8 m6 S. h"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
( d) s5 c: |9 j. W
" b+ H$ A" d* }  N1 f9 I* e5 MSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
" [& m$ B* w" b6 U7 i. i
"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
: Z) {- S: J6 p7 ~
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

& n" O8 G8 |  s; y; T: Z[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]