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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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! b. I" g+ y. I: iDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat & U" x, x0 v% L! t5 l" ~8 y6 @0 ^
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US! z$ p. {# H3 f1 f5 r D V8 c! y
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern: E. A( p0 P2 u, l& @; ~/ r
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
/ ]! M% r0 p% \' Y8 Z- ITrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)! G9 u0 {8 g( M, o' ^3 Y5 ?' a+ I) ^
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
2 `2 N2 P, ?& }. H0 O4 E1 @upbeat.
`7 W; m& D" s$ L6 x Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
/ h `! D# j0 j7 \annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects4 o' I2 }1 V9 Q* g* C. Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real2 F) }, D# ]" a: [
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company& l# r. q9 X" h1 u7 A6 d1 t
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.8 }) \5 w4 e2 J5 ]; D+ l& C
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
8 I& s& l8 M9 oincluding Asia Pacific and Europe./ I' n! c# B- @$ {. N! @' _) f2 R
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
' o: {, H( q, g, b: q: dReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
. ~* @+ W! q2 Uenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
3 I) j% P# j3 N, Q q6 Obe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record: w' h4 I; O9 O6 j* D t
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."/ G" F6 c v0 {
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the/ E( n3 ], ]" H0 h; A
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game0 E K$ _ s3 l. n
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
( p8 y6 O* c: s- [1 p2 tremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US7 H! T6 ^* p8 l* q* q+ R
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
) o( T# p4 U6 I- Tvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
+ V& t3 b q/ Z! _5 q h, h9 X: U$ i The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; {4 | x) B" F0 a( prespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by5 J; b8 Y {5 U, Z; P
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land5 h9 D0 ]7 n) M+ Z
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country$ J% a7 O9 E- L+ Q- \
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating( V5 ?" @- A0 F9 w
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The9 R. D$ W) e) }
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
! V$ O% s5 F2 mtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
. \0 B/ u Z. [7 ?9 [single-family housing looks overpriced.
6 p3 {, b3 L" X" @$ G Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with! C. Y8 A: Z7 a+ y+ A j! {
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian6 Z B0 Z8 H( M4 `3 Q
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push7 u: o; }+ s. Z6 T0 K1 \
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
. d6 ^# Q, s: L; n. x* fnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
% J1 Y6 p) s- dand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
' G2 T7 G) d' b |2 | {apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
. p1 W, Z/ h1 U0 i# Ywestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing. @; D4 i) ^- V( c! z
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
) i! J; T) o, z9 m( t. sthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development8 Y+ t/ _* _5 V5 o4 l4 n, c8 G, ]
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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9 e9 k1 y" E( ^: L Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
" z& k; k* k/ j; x3 Ncities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
! } W5 ~2 u' h3 C( v; m8 c3 ineighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back" Z- E( O# B7 ]8 Y
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in0 C1 _- T" J! Q
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
3 x/ N4 t. q9 Cprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
2 v9 [- K0 m2 c5 H/ wwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
& W# Q! K: A0 t* O2 d+ P' }8 ^0 Nprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
* {, L9 }* r x2 l' X4 J7 kwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.$ R" m, [2 ]& f* t; X
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high6 _* F- g. }& I8 i& v
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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, H7 }% a a4 j, B Calgary/Edmonton8 @0 ]& y; f, H* m
]; `2 n" ~% a+ q; P2 k
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one! G2 N" { w7 E" h
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
, J4 H; X. G3 u8 bbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
" @( C- E( [ ]4 L/ x; Q48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property." _1 h% }- r# u& Z- F' \
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale+ i2 I8 P6 L/ v0 t( O
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
" Z, Y6 Y. }7 e+ zCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
, Z6 z4 \9 \ J) c P- i' A" m- Kstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver2 y8 |0 g$ [2 P. v+ w0 @. {
3 h! @2 ]. ^9 ]$ r {6 {9 U
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
4 Q- ]/ V @4 k5 P2 Ybooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
4 m2 r, q$ M! D( m( @real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the: g' e$ l0 a" o3 k! `* d
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
4 c& Q9 ~3 {, \5 E' _growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
) A2 d! O r C" G& o' zrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%) i$ n" u3 {' r$ ]/ O3 P
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
: G; q6 S, n8 [for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very% k0 ^' U) j. n* V! I& q
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
% `* ] y. R3 u2 Z( d: R$ U0 K0 W5 P% L, E
Toronto
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% P" f. w4 B5 O! E Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
$ o$ g& O2 i6 J3 y, K7 Dmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" F0 S6 G, ~2 Lrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
0 {' s6 a! }0 a5 e. cindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.6 S: S) y- K7 Q( g" e/ ]
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square- a" a# R8 J2 w/ t
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and9 E+ k- ~; a, q
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
+ U; o. P: [$ C3 f# o2 }5 tgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
: ?$ f. E5 u( Hshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
7 r8 ~4 b1 U' l( {; tCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate( ~- S7 V% p+ M2 j: E4 J' _7 C
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors4 I! h6 t- Q6 A: C& \
higher as a "hold" recommendation.0 V6 s) t; f4 e% K+ M. P5 X
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
- F: J/ {9 q3 J" L7 [$ W+ E. Ninclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy$ d& c8 U8 l7 I% w; T6 s U/ |
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos% @# T7 F/ Z6 c m6 Q
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest2 z6 c3 ^8 U- O+ S
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
$ o6 g E/ `9 j, q3 Nprices.") F( S, o# Z$ d: W x& q$ p8 k
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
5 X; i4 N" F! m Dwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.; a& x7 J% }2 c
( p# L8 c# O9 B }
About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 Z0 O# f) }" G3 U' ?+ T
3 d: Y# m9 m# T6 V$ [- g( y" r PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
; J( B. V- o) H% U0 i0 wtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its0 T, o8 [( E7 Z$ O& @+ y+ {
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
+ \/ z$ ^, H, I0 Jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
3 O1 R- N w0 s4 w0 e( Rfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of, @: y( i% f; Y7 b9 c7 E' f
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
! P- u* \; m' Q5 W$ e3 krelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the7 |3 N. n1 q! r. k/ \2 l
country.* B7 ?! {! V4 Z$ b
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario w2 p J. }" o8 ]
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
' y3 F' _! b+ V9 q2 U3 bPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; X( n) [! D: ]each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.) D: Q8 }* n7 p8 R+ u
+ t0 Y0 \4 r5 N, @1 D About the Urban Land Institute
1 w/ T! [; }* A- ^7 [$ F
6 P0 q* ]% W1 U The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
4 W7 w; f, C4 G7 ^8 B2 A$ Oresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
- ?1 x4 `7 k. `( v2 C4 _7 y1 Yleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating$ e* }' w% B# }" Z
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
3 J; _; H4 r. \. q& |than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
) m U# J- o9 @9 F" |) v. \! zdisciplines.5 j, D4 d U) Z, G
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
: S! |* q5 T9 m0 p' N( [With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District' D2 y a& y& }
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
0 T( Q5 r8 i0 I" {: }: q# b2 inow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
* f& a0 p' B" F( H/ Y$ _2 i3 {hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
& @' C; S, `" b2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake* q4 a# W! d5 H! w* F
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
$ `- }; [. r1 LPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please, x5 |) D& l$ `, c e& g
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
* @8 n) N9 A2 L8 r" E: H/ L% rthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
+ ]! i" G. p) D* O4 C) k6 R8 K* D
; |$ S9 a) v+ ?' O- D
4 j$ s+ M8 s" x, j! x7 a* a. ZFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,$ w$ l& Z/ D0 T& ^5 ^2 ^
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com# N* T3 T; K! S3 g5 p9 s
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html, J; L$ E4 R3 f7 c. D
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