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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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2 M8 T) e) x' d- u8 s' XDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat e# s$ o( d3 S
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
9 P6 Q; s" j/ S/ i5 ~- ]5 Dcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
) R3 Z+ |2 x% M" b" y: q# Oas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging$ |# P! W' w2 {: Z5 \4 l
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). A/ t, l6 a$ v) c+ h4 Q
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more; O) _" N9 E% x
upbeat.' g) m9 B! v$ d
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
& b9 o# o. A9 u: t3 lannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
$ t! u) {, d1 m( M1 @, tinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 A9 V5 g8 z6 F+ N. U( a
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company; b2 T$ i4 Y( W. A$ [
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
: `. p& [+ X# d: F7 e8 M: v/ vOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
1 P4 i6 q5 m& ~1 T; v+ f5 cincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
, r9 n$ [1 b5 h9 U According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian! R, N* h4 f; }: a+ M
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
9 h* g8 i3 Y' u0 ?* a% _2 c! cenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 e! y) E1 f8 `* E% o0 D/ w
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record: R2 \7 o4 t3 s2 _% |
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."# c& M7 U1 j* K2 X1 j, H
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
* }5 G. h6 t% d4 E1 _( |4 A3 j. eborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
1 L @- e% @( E# Qspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey. q- r2 i2 ~) M( s& i& \( [
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US- o0 b0 z5 j/ {' A3 t
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
" G n, O9 _, ?$ o( Pvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.( }: e6 g- m T+ q" O8 G, _
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian2 Q' l a7 M; Y& [4 V2 z
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
: Z& {" u0 M8 lcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
9 |& \, Z% V& U7 sdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
& u4 W8 R% P/ z2 J7 S( yespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
$ ^& F7 q7 t8 x! f: x: U4 Xdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The% K& a3 n# g% }# l) C# ?
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
3 f5 O1 Z. v: qtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and; p( Y" ?8 b/ r/ h2 i" _' [
single-family housing looks overpriced.9 |" D* Q. _% k$ v
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with/ T0 ?+ |. D1 g: _4 v3 b7 A
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
9 ~' X1 L1 A6 _metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
' g4 r; R+ Q% G6 z4 z" S0 ahigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting* D8 o- N% S/ i, c2 Q6 ^- a9 t
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,) [1 x% L4 h$ N
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental+ _, D; U1 ]% F4 G. j; h: t% ]
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
+ a) d- n/ N" \3 W) y: @western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
, N/ I* o3 o" c+ P: s0 i: lshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into" q/ A4 Y2 f3 O/ m8 L! N5 f. m
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development! Z- M; z5 C' X
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
' |! Y" ^/ ^: r) B: e, T Rcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour; a. Z/ a- P2 k
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
* q: X' q9 ~1 f4 ]into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in" Z0 E3 Y, B6 }* o; z# D
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical2 W0 Y9 W/ h& x% X* `
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
& ] u+ Y0 A2 e5 z# b7 Mwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
6 n8 v1 C# m0 i' R: {: w* {prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain- C8 J `# f \# ~7 q7 W
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
7 \& F) G# Q. Y' aToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high2 W1 Q' O T& Y' i }$ J( F* a& W: C8 o
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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9 e( ^' T8 n3 c; L Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one) O5 \- i% E: n6 b4 ~
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
) x0 N( Y2 L2 L& ]; ^- fbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# b* y7 P3 K: J0 Q6 E. l
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.9 @6 x2 [7 ?3 W( X0 f
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
8 l) V: s. D- l2 m2 u- z4 EHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
+ m0 ?6 f7 s* H. E" C! G. _Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
* v9 Z6 |% W6 f' ], i7 ]2 qstrong, this market will continue to do well.; H: E; `- `9 d0 h6 j* d
1 G# b$ a6 i) t. e Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
8 g- j" e3 ?( k- Obooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous3 P$ I/ @. [0 k. ]6 Q
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the2 \5 e4 P8 ^7 l3 X5 b- Q' }% g
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) T8 \, w& O& m/ tgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy4 Z+ @& ]9 z$ \; f) j
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
/ i( a( l# s- `% a q% M; D; dfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%& N5 B2 @+ \, J. H" x) d
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
; h x e0 I4 g$ F; {' g0 `- B8 a9 Cgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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$ b7 `' Q+ Y0 _% W) M* ~9 ], |6 ~ Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
. Q! e# @5 ~' o n( i' _manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
% ?3 Y* S9 Z! m: }+ srelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
# {$ R) v+ p; _6 D* |+ g8 windustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
+ \6 p4 }, m6 N2 a8 P6 lThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
5 t* q F; U- Y) _1 R2 z2 hfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
+ h" U! t6 w* K) P5 j* @0 oApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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/ u3 e5 ] u9 Z8 A+ B1 Q% z8 _0 S Montreal- i6 _8 J- m# Q4 e
, t, ~( f7 @. ?4 { Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
) U8 p2 Z" G: a* e0 i& igrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up0 I( s3 o* \6 f; R& I5 u7 F8 _
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in K: |( l2 M8 ?! _2 x' F
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate/ B+ Z! w% c7 ?: g
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
0 I; \3 x/ y0 Z$ m; I/ s# \higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years$ u9 B5 E6 J' [# \: M7 l) ^* r
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy( w2 h0 G/ j5 C+ C" k* W; r; x
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
# P! g7 U: S; u! V* w U8 _near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
- ?0 v6 q6 A; F' R! _/ J- yoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( Y8 r5 X ^) P5 @# l5 |prices."4 u, L D6 e7 D6 {
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
9 i# b' L8 P( }+ C" Jwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers0 B9 C) @4 k( q" C t
b' w! L4 d+ Y8 c/ x9 ^1 M PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
9 f# `& M; l5 D- W% d' rtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its, O# i# Z8 X; l1 V- x
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
7 m/ T8 c3 A! H0 j! v, f5 zacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
5 w9 ^0 z1 a0 C6 U: n& _fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of$ G4 a4 j: n9 a. ^( r. q# }$ c
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its# Y% |$ w7 D, I" B' i* f
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the7 V S4 X2 ]7 r% }* I" c, e$ y" Q
country." o! L3 N) w% _$ w1 u9 I
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario% ~8 n t; [0 z7 x% S6 s# I
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
' g+ D; X4 y5 ePricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,8 X4 e2 X1 a% G
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
' ~$ n! ?' E& p1 `, N. V6 S$ {1 b1 C; x" ^
About the Urban Land Institute
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5 }* K! h. x( p+ v1 N& z) O5 Q6 { The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
' h. Z- t* `5 wresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
; u( X" A2 e" Wleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
6 T: X* X3 h* Y& p; F# ~) g% cthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
/ r4 A& l! F: W+ l7 r, zthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development" u) ]) `+ j, q7 T: h {
disciplines.3 u% r1 g1 Y; d9 O8 {
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
1 U( O( c; A3 H9 X/ f8 N2 zWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District# Q, x, g5 S# i$ _1 c) l
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
T) z$ h# @6 p) I- anow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be! e/ k! a7 B$ W) n4 R
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,- b g: y4 z) X4 a5 N
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake Z9 ]# C/ R1 j
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
& `% l: J' Y/ r* H/ nPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
- z! L! v2 ~, o% \( {# \! u; fcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
8 }* n, d$ d1 B- c* F; Zthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.: \$ P& B/ P. T& \# v
3 a" t5 h6 \: m9 q
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$ Z$ y" `. I q, v4 q
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,) e+ _4 n8 f, [
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
i, d1 N& x7 t6 V/ X- M/ Mhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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