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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
+ {& r9 j: h5 }) \0 u H# L3 _8 Z8 w3 e" f) ?
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat * b) e/ m) n6 M: i
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US! z! [& N+ k9 U% U. M. c$ T
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
9 {4 ?* K. T8 |: b+ \as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
, @$ {& y7 M% qTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)( ]- X' X. Q& i: N. ^
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
2 u; T' U9 e$ a' xupbeat.+ F& r5 O' \: n- d
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded+ t2 S @1 t8 p% K* j
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
. o7 Y& p, ~/ Yinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
0 [4 O3 W4 L- i8 G4 nestate experts, including investors, developers, property company* M: f9 o# E$ n) C( o/ v7 R' ^
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.+ s K" I# H) `5 z3 a& f2 w
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* S, @* i \% A! r, L, Gincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
8 _- P+ J( O3 _+ ?- O7 X3 Z( ^' Z According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
9 `- z) b8 {! y5 d0 K2 a, p' NReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment8 T/ g" f1 J# v$ C. c$ j+ j: R
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
( k3 A; N% v9 q- `2 Zbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
. B( R; M: \2 Xhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."% A3 h2 V* L* ?1 X% Q# ?
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the7 p! M, h( @" m4 ?4 c8 N1 H
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game' @$ |( I3 x. K3 ?0 |
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
3 D# U' U. M3 @) [5 {2 t2 Sremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
, K4 B6 O" ]3 e& O& Y: i1 vcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
2 b+ x+ ?# E, H1 A: Uvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.2 M& k3 z. _) C; y
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ q" j6 {5 W+ o, |) k: E! o, ^0 _
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by) H2 h' d/ n6 s' f: y* h( ^
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
) C8 H; R( B6 J+ ]7 I( h0 ?development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
) f6 F0 |. S+ P1 A, n2 ?especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating. z! h8 ^: W4 j; k; g" f- x. `
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
( C+ h* j" R2 H. b4 q9 }. Mresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to9 L: |7 n, `: m; |* x ]
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
I1 S1 `2 G, N" _5 Msingle-family housing looks overpriced.6 h' n! E5 q: g8 T# x6 B; t
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with/ L8 [$ I4 L6 O4 a; M+ A' `. f3 r
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
% q) h) ^3 L5 \" Imetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push: {& I1 a' ]" n" s
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting3 H0 Q! d2 E5 W8 F
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,0 H6 M! m0 u' l; H! L
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental. _ k ?1 x, U7 ~1 ]! ~1 z
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
7 N1 C( J ~# I# ~5 Z& j8 lwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing+ l' p8 B/ x; |) g5 K' q
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into+ ^, V$ Q3 H: g, ?
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development% \ v: ` f4 c7 ~* \
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
9 P8 T: \' S3 X* ~
! D0 n1 j* C: {$ N" K6 `# f Canadian Markets to Watch
5 {" ?! e! Q' n" ~" a/ Y" Z
/ p7 @3 y! @0 F3 x The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
+ \/ k! s; K tcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour! L6 g9 E i& o, K5 M3 `2 ?
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back5 N/ N- m! o8 C% c' U l! Q( Z
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
2 G! f* }" x. O; Ddowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
" a2 r0 g! {9 }8 ?9 \( b {% mprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out) O" b7 m& i( [' g) O4 ?1 }. R
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment/ R0 ^% J) x9 L7 F* z: j- N8 M
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
2 v+ G+ W8 h! e& R1 F! Qwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this. x1 g0 h, W, P4 l% H' d6 u
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
8 a8 M; D$ l4 @" a8 \ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.2 m+ d. I5 y- T
# \; M) f+ c8 S; t. p
Calgary/Edmonton, l+ y h( t" V) h, z2 d0 a( e
/ n. h: K, n T% K Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
. n0 K& r2 y! |+ Q7 Hboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a$ {2 M2 ?: M2 E! {& n$ w' |) A
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
* u) }5 b; ~4 d1 j" S. x48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
9 E I& H0 Y. j) |3 i @) |# HFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale3 T$ b4 ~- B7 A1 h) N4 F
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
% y- `' v* D: d* M6 V. y7 B& K' [Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays$ _4 n( E& F2 T. e8 d( \; R
strong, this market will continue to do well.- d" l- x1 T1 f K( g
9 t% t% I: Q7 y
Vancouver( |4 w2 g: b8 A9 g# a: c" b
8 e T1 T7 i. P4 x. ~4 S
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
& `3 A q# P3 R6 ]1 |. V vbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
4 ~$ P: B7 c' x' ereal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
$ w' ^. l; Z1 jmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a! q& [( n# g6 R& _
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
2 F0 c3 `0 v2 srecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
0 l1 N6 V8 o! ^7 ~8 cfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%3 E+ o! Z. ~ p5 A
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very' Q! A. t" e0 h; Q- l4 d- d _
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.! T l6 a4 v/ s8 A! [
+ u3 P- L" S5 F# s7 S6 Y8 { Toronto
9 s) K, r& R; H; @0 H. K
8 f% }. A* y' W1 X. o2 u- S Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and: o$ T* `9 z, i9 E6 L' ?
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
# n8 G7 f8 q* G& B( w$ ?relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing2 R% G9 Z( j0 ?& b" K
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.. K- u* ?3 S! {
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
) w5 b8 z x9 j g" }- {( y/ X" kfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and: F" C7 e2 N& v" j" L) f1 k
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.' g7 j. @0 c5 B& W0 ]. p
6 t4 q$ ?4 _' ]2 ^) N. ^( K Montreal; ^- Y8 A8 M4 u( I) s: p8 }
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall! b& X! u! A, Q; X Q7 n/ E
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
* S* j# g$ N6 [1 Lshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
) V% Z( {8 }- ^Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
; _( z: k1 H4 S- ]2 z0 Asectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
" ~+ p* `" B3 K& ?) X+ ehigher as a "hold" recommendation.
3 U+ m4 T' `8 c0 a
w: G# P8 V8 t% f) ~ The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
+ s* j$ Y* v) [8 b2 @include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
6 m; T: ~. ~/ I% hmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos* V* R8 j9 s& L- M( f
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
, {+ p3 D/ i1 |5 J9 H1 ?( yoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
5 m2 ?4 R; |5 N. V( T& ^prices."
6 K3 q& G$ J0 n6 E! g! Z A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
- P4 K1 K: @' n) c( E l9 {. u1 ]www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.* H' E/ S, q8 H c- _
+ u1 r% w7 B7 [- U
About PricewaterhouseCoopers d$ i& \$ ^, ]! k8 T( ~
; A7 i4 c$ i) F1 L3 F
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance, ]- b e1 I( ]% ^/ Z
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
6 U+ @3 E$ V. i3 Q. \ Nclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries' V- G. `) |! }" \% d
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
0 l$ F' |$ t& Rfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
% z- B: z/ m0 ]8 v4 }excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
0 x5 N- }% ]& M# n* \4 p9 Krelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
3 H1 f: G4 U4 M3 ]country.& U. x7 V$ ^ @0 M5 H
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
: ^" d( ?) o. x3 Elimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
/ T7 [9 r4 z- }, |2 XPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
! I. Z Y3 H% }/ Neach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
8 k4 K- ]9 @* ~2 Q3 ], U3 N
: z/ T, M8 v5 o. J, l% n8 m f About the Urban Land Institute
; r3 _4 Y. Y+ [, W8 ?! I) D$ K: V/ O2 k& X
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
) z5 i. L# f8 z" m6 u8 Lresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
# B$ W: B0 t/ u9 U$ K4 S# }8 r' Oleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( ]# a" \7 a2 K+ Uthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more+ m6 u' X5 U9 }! v
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development J' V4 o" `' W1 o3 C7 g0 d
disciplines.* K+ M7 f; e1 C4 L- k
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ Q/ u/ ^6 K& hWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
* C& _' L$ r. f' yCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
$ r# V3 F$ r) W& g9 @now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% K7 Y5 u3 C0 Ohosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,6 l' I' q- r4 k. q0 G1 {, c
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake' N. X6 s# _; D% {( ~4 q
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,3 v" u- p: }1 L, a" \8 O
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please! O p4 r2 J3 k3 v
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on4 B3 w6 J; H ?3 _* [$ `9 ]
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.( _ R. ^8 R8 Y2 _
) ]& f: g; K' W8 o3 p
6 j. Q& }+ g: x- U1 u& A/ h& _
' Q& f" j" L/ A! YFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
2 L6 B Y6 s( {6 Y(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
9 [. _# N) H( ~2 Vhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html& l+ X" G5 a0 t! J* o# K
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