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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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1 }* u( B; V8 Q, K: QDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat $ k) P+ Q) Q) Y0 [
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
$ q9 K, @. e( ?/ @* B, ^. vcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern( [0 v+ [. A1 o6 x5 c
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging" s+ w. }2 {% Q7 R) t7 N' l
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
% u7 X/ ?2 B2 K- p& ^# Q2 qand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
- Y* ]. `0 j: c% l( ^* Nupbeat.
, q( ~: i' b2 |, W4 N2 }! S Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded5 t$ \7 C- D' e6 e" l% O, E
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects5 Q* p6 s( c' C
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real4 }; e0 N1 t* P
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
/ g L$ L- @( j3 d& xrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US. Y/ h, J7 Q0 `% ]' Q+ i& Z/ m
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world7 Y( J6 Q6 `# L' u, W8 f
including Asia Pacific and Europe.1 K6 i% \0 G1 M# M5 `' p5 ~
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian2 J3 z$ F/ o" ~' W+ Z' x. p
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment# x( C3 Z# c9 Q% v& z, U
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
9 n4 e: z0 m9 q+ i1 Cbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 E) }2 X: a2 e3 ~, [% X% I
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."6 a) t+ @; Z- ^2 X: y! Q) Y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the2 n/ Y8 K3 J' v' Y- b W
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game0 B/ n. c4 {- |6 |0 N
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
( s, S) [3 k) H& T3 N7 Rremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ K8 p5 Z) I8 @, u; U [correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
w( o0 o) n ]6 }very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.$ o, e ?0 u: _+ [- `
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
! U; F+ d1 Q: y: h# arespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
1 C' p9 {2 E# Gcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land6 r" z: |6 S Z9 f; t0 r9 I
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
5 W" ^% J+ \- ]7 ~" aespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
9 _' o5 f0 @+ }5 `2 g edevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The( X s9 U& g. f' q( @0 R
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
$ P/ e8 F* N! [. l6 b5 D+ F: Stake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
4 @; g3 k" z T2 w" zsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
7 r, p$ \, `/ z% z- ]- d Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with6 J7 z& f5 U N q! M! a3 E8 C
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian6 k) L# @4 d$ N4 X9 e3 J
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push1 V; u/ s9 A$ ~4 N6 P( _ X8 C3 M
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting# r! I4 Y2 p J9 k1 l
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,' h' \) @/ u8 _/ S) V- m
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
" J- h- l/ Q1 J5 yapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
4 w3 f/ k) t: {8 S& w; Rwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
% i1 S7 S+ E2 f2 R/ v# oshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
; A K) @: p/ w1 h5 [3 o$ Ethe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
6 L: p! X; Y6 D* d" s5 }% ^in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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5 i) C% F/ k' j- a( ?6 \ Canadian Markets to Watch
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$ L* P" W% @% |4 s" g j The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central6 L) ]! e" |3 J: t0 s# h
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour# z$ @5 t4 Y! | c3 x- L+ X4 l+ S3 e
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back E0 K, h0 U3 f! f3 L& k
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
# w& b. _+ z' G Odowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
. m5 e7 }" C2 C. g5 A+ P' ?projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out) w5 ]! e! p0 a y: D
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment, o# k9 {2 j# Y" r* ^+ r
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; X; Z/ X1 B. a6 S2 a) f; ?whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
( d6 O/ }1 S) }9 aToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high! B0 q* x2 A" m$ @! R6 E, X
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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% F4 D ?/ n$ ^! S: b# n Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
$ ^2 y& h; e' H8 {! Nboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; s3 M/ K# S* b' }3 Z8 }. Lbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
. V+ Q3 g# H9 a0 T% |: u48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.1 D) c* Q- R0 g) E
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
! ~! M7 \. D1 U: O/ w3 gHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the5 I `( T; m# j% X2 T/ I" U
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays o4 t7 Y/ O0 M( y8 Z
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
7 L3 E) r1 a+ J- q0 c0 B5 Sbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous0 v+ r0 r9 O0 }1 Q% B3 Z
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the) q0 A) a% n5 E1 w7 Y% V
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
9 f# E* [$ {0 }/ ?4 m; {1 Lgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy7 D) f3 ~ R( E7 f2 C9 e8 }
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%0 g# n! T& s! I8 n G
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
2 ~" z; E# ?. n8 n$ k) d) f# M0 w6 ?for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
, E# Y( Y) f n; c) }good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.( j- Y; _! Z8 i& a3 h! m
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Toronto
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. t# u0 G. }) N( r- q6 n Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and3 F# i; c% [# Y: V, [& }
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is. p; T3 f# }$ o( ^) V
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing. j# h. p0 q# h p
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
3 o& R/ S0 K( C3 L0 d; L% mThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* r2 t ~* k' _1 W
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and4 G4 V# v- N+ T+ `/ ]' G
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal' B8 m4 S( m' ]( D5 l- |6 d# f3 K& a; o
" J" p2 L% c; Y+ x- `. } Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
* M* P2 b% e! \! h+ k/ I Rgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
: i( U. M* }& E c# H4 mshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
4 h- f3 r$ Q+ l7 G* M% bCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate2 b! D8 S' f5 c8 u4 j; W5 u0 @
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
" g$ l9 |+ H$ V6 D! Dhigher as a "hold" recommendation.* |# S8 `, `2 l1 y; ]3 E$ i2 T
9 F# H* Y4 R* i+ p! {( Q6 h. r The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years0 T% M5 I7 [6 n4 [
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
- f5 V& C+ j4 ~3 V1 d I% ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos; ]1 S3 {& y* S8 L8 j
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest9 _* b( E q8 Q! l7 ^; x2 H& W& C, D
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
% ]1 s8 f$ N# @3 @1 P8 yprices."
) p, B! W y+ y* L A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
- G- y0 m% Y I4 I& O% H g$ nwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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: [; e6 y D* _' K& H3 G& M* O About PricewaterhouseCoopers
( N. ]1 d6 h7 e- a% q2 `
* V3 }+ a: S9 ]" h! j PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,4 H3 W. Q, v4 F; ]4 j4 [2 e
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
- X; s, m8 f, V6 s1 _2 ?clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries# B& l9 M* [) o9 u* s Q; |
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop9 b; q: ^/ W( l* v7 r
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of# K- I% g) _( Z3 ^/ G/ C- K. x: ]
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
G4 J% f! i2 O2 Rrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- y& M& V7 s4 ^& E' H* q
country.
( f% U" j" B. E/ {! h "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
% Q% q& ~7 a# `) f. _+ Ylimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
; P6 K# \; i, A6 S8 q% M1 s" ^PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,) O* V# t. M; l. t/ N8 i
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
X! I! u4 @! O" H3 ~" P- s% T. M/ V2 e
About the Urban Land Institute$ G, m5 ^) B& Q) E! B
3 t# @- O$ O4 y& Y* [" _ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
9 C1 B7 t! A! `research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
! ? t0 w1 t5 h' j v8 Bleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating) x- c0 g B, h/ V1 j
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
$ B0 Z! B% s. U2 o) Fthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: ~# N/ f9 H6 z. ]; U5 l3 G* idisciplines.: b% l9 N" a! p. f% n% e# d( V: ]8 J
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' e( X7 S L6 ~
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District: i6 @/ h, j) k: M- r
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
& F+ [7 h4 [" K) I% vnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
( Z5 W3 V! v2 m1 }( O' M) Khosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
9 D6 @! K+ c: j ?* @; F; n) s* ~2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake" v; U2 G7 ]: ^+ H- H5 D6 w
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,7 n3 a: p% ]7 ~+ W
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please. a# [* f+ R; C) f
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
. p! y1 v( l! G7 N: pthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
/ c M( \' H9 M' Y(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com ~$ r, e: Y# n5 B$ Z& i$ K
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html$ o5 w. E" m7 z4 f$ M( N V
/ G4 l$ c) [. t5 O: |9 n[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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