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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 4 p* {! b4 \" b+ f" T
& N! {" Z* k! R) q
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
2 e7 ]& }" Y* ]3 f' { TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
( |6 E( _0 s, B' hcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern. u5 V" ^) C9 d" r: q! \" w( I
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 }# {7 G. m& K7 iTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
6 P3 i& B* Y) w5 x4 a& Tand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more8 C7 v4 w" _( Q6 M7 a) Q
upbeat.# ?4 O- j! I, i1 I5 y
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded1 N2 `3 M& D6 E; x3 g- x3 F
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects$ G! i' J/ N$ Y9 r2 g
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real: L8 G! d6 ?. l! `$ ^7 w0 y
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
7 n9 e/ Y! Z: B5 o8 U$ Lrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
, v, F3 v/ L% s9 c8 J \Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world" [. @) N) }' d. k, P; R; @
including Asia Pacific and Europe.+ }6 Q, n" x8 a) m2 R+ x3 h. q
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian: j% X3 @+ K9 f% } [. y; q$ U
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment6 j7 w5 f- `( {4 _
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
+ L' x# b# F0 O, u, Z9 cbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record4 b m& F+ u6 I( ?/ p% q1 I
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."' n, i+ y- S1 h* I3 F
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the7 G& _9 \0 B( l1 x& E8 w* R* Y
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game" a( t$ z7 C3 L
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey: A- M9 [* j( H7 I
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
1 v) G& R& d' H# hcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be4 L" K7 H1 j! Q! q8 w5 X$ K3 D2 q
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.. s7 K7 t5 e' R
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian, c; T n6 J8 J2 `8 F# j
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
`) M L# w; h/ `- y; T# v, icommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
/ G1 E+ j7 O2 v1 Adevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
) }, y6 s2 {# Z$ D. b4 E* n- d) \# Tespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
3 T* m; u |" C$ zdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
% U1 B& \9 D1 ?& ^. c3 \6 Wresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to7 j5 [( U6 e# D
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
* T! D9 h) Y- P% usingle-family housing looks overpriced.
( l; o5 V3 i. R4 }$ }! F- e/ V( F Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with# b3 d/ M) Z1 z3 n7 h8 `
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
" b% K# Z$ b) q3 c3 ~& [2 Tmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
6 ]. k; `# S, chigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
# A. Q* i- I. Mnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
7 D4 H" e, v" z% Y! land most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
" G0 A# S, z9 Napartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary5 i r& T/ J& e7 B* j
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
) P6 c t2 i9 U" L8 S' v, }5 qshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
. @/ q: l% p m% x& J' |& Wthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 n3 @: u/ @1 l8 E! w- Y6 O
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.5 D# T' N$ ?+ p/ a3 O3 T4 k
8 d% o4 i U: n' | p6 k6 \9 P$ a
Canadian Markets to Watch$ s" |& ]3 E* z I0 \6 t! u
" j( E5 [- g! H. |. y6 m The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
0 u1 c1 v; q# ~! u; P1 y qcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
- _; @' ?& O: [& }2 Bneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
4 B3 S7 R# V" @; ?, ninto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
! I& k) R5 ?3 F4 k4 |/ N: `# vdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical$ {; o; _; k4 S. K1 N
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
) D+ }! U2 v# Q5 @, V$ hwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment! a6 C; T4 j; C, p9 \# S
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain$ s0 t! o) h5 n8 q8 G
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
) a/ }' c1 o! k' v- ~. x% t% PToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
9 l7 Q8 \1 Z6 kratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
: F: S- h& v n1 e8 D C* R
& J! u9 C s, g$ O2 C. d Calgary/Edmonton
+ T: F, {# P9 x5 a- P, K6 U
2 u, b! X- h, [, H A: T; [3 R8 x* S' e Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one+ E# ~4 l) N0 J% l6 ]6 O$ X
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
1 ^, W/ j0 i7 c; x3 o: @buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
3 `0 g5 S4 e% U: Z' X$ L48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.3 L; h6 }% P! Z! B* h: z) |' W
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale* e D( Y7 l, N7 S
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) T5 d( P( m; a% G- X3 {
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays, @$ o. D% L' i
strong, this market will continue to do well. T1 ~2 s D7 J$ d$ q+ W) l3 `
1 p; q0 Q/ e* ?( K
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
9 `' [- Q6 l) w& C0 u0 T8 _ Obooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
2 Q. L" c7 q+ y* J) o: hreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the9 g6 `4 t3 g" S! q( }( _
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
# P' _- }7 n- U2 L0 a% ^growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy, N9 \# J; m& v1 _
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%+ o' \; H2 K7 P" ^
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%* v! u! v' W2 `) V9 \, m
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
& h9 X& o. ]0 w' Ogood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
. r; K% E& Z" a9 i# |8 v8 F4 y# I2 v: \& B; l
Toronto
6 v4 J. E6 A* J! \( A% @# G' ~$ `9 ]5 y( F, s
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
; y+ G2 ?2 s( @9 F7 w# Y" Kmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
' \- X% r% D& a4 c, Prelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing+ y3 x! f- |: J- c5 b& C& P
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.; V" \1 G# O; m+ a9 |
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
( T$ a6 c/ ~. Kfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and2 F8 i. a8 X2 `$ t7 x. P, ~
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
/ g" q8 @/ C0 y2 M7 f
% i# T. J, n2 m% G! {- v P$ x Montreal
4 L' ^& n( r2 c+ }8 y2 [; i. C: {8 b( a w. M: Q0 e+ A! V: n' ^$ n: [
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall) k ?2 s" X" ^% x3 u' a
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
) u1 {9 v7 }% Ashop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in Z1 E( M) c N7 c) a
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate' ?! ~3 G" @. @3 D) X4 p) V
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
/ P9 c+ {* w& p# z. @& e0 Ohigher as a "hold" recommendation.- ]8 Z7 s, [$ L
# D/ H0 d; T3 M
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 J% T2 V3 B& f' f" d: D6 {include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
( j4 X$ _8 X# Omarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
1 B, e# p7 x8 xnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; _4 y: Q$ h8 h& p* x3 ]
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
. d7 h8 r8 S0 s6 A- {$ _' k5 hprices."
! | S- q$ s" C8 y A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at0 \; H* A A! r+ o5 ^: T9 J
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.% b$ B% b$ ]: O M9 ~
& f+ b" M2 ` b8 W# ]; k9 y
About PricewaterhouseCoopers* |. Y4 M& W: S8 }- d& m- B
0 h5 T9 a3 l5 o1 \) `; j# c6 d
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
9 r* k+ Q) h9 @ e! i M8 }tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
7 t! t8 v9 L# Xclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries$ w( u( N. ^' F' v
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
8 h* b" G9 Y& X" g. L+ Dfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of3 q5 ^# B4 B1 t3 K) R5 e
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
" G7 r L* L, n, ~$ E$ F8 j1 ]related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
/ m% C' D& ~1 j ~' wcountry." G: F- f% X" t0 k# z5 m+ E; @( G5 N
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario+ o7 o/ I* g/ f* e! P# i c
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
: I. ^+ _) {7 jPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
* j, O( |' e- t3 j& k! neach of which is a separate and independent legal entity. Q# F) _. Z4 R1 h9 O1 K$ t
4 o* s2 `$ N9 @ z$ J
About the Urban Land Institute
: v; I1 ]' g9 q0 _# x) @$ K3 }8 W3 t4 d3 A! o `& e+ b" F
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
u( K: r* l* X" g. P3 i+ Mresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide0 M0 B0 G- R' j5 _: Y$ l: O
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating, v f6 g" O2 D8 p3 F( H/ b1 M) x& A
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
f7 d% r9 X. b" Qthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development% L5 z7 T: h2 F' w
disciplines.
( n. _' P l3 h% z The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.$ q, ?% |, ^# B" L5 ?1 j \7 f
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
5 g8 G" c) ?% J. v! J3 KCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; v8 s5 D7 t# U( J5 lnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
! _- P9 ^& v9 L0 ]6 s6 M0 Z4 Thosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
2 [) x/ W8 k! R, K2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
: _- k; Y: f7 A5 ^6 Z0 F+ gHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,3 z0 S) y* H6 W) v: ^- \4 I- v
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please, ?, T! w5 \1 h1 J! Y
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on- z, m. ^5 f& A4 @1 E" |4 V
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
5 f& ]7 ^8 v- g' i% N3 A" y) J; C- J! q5 O/ A F0 R$ p
8 a9 }4 a# s/ K+ o3 V1 C: s
0 u' P. q5 {& C1 aFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
4 h& `- g# x6 w! [5 I( Z(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
! F' v1 v. N( x2 }http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html: P1 N. x- g, I& s2 G+ Q0 [
8 q2 z; ~) ~+ b1 R% o+ L[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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