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Attention Real Estate Reporters: . k% W" H5 `# t$ E* u- f
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 3 @$ w7 Q( x3 V4 i+ g2 J6 j
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US$ J0 U' j& N) y7 X( L% I' [
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
0 x6 W1 f6 X5 L1 gas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging3 n* `; Y: c. |
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
7 X3 [% e: V8 G' t: }) Dand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' ^+ V' B- f' Tupbeat.
( t# ~4 v$ J% v" O5 X( Z6 G Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded8 L4 k( u6 y( m( Y5 S0 t
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
- m5 s* B! I+ ?& G1 Q, Ointerviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
0 L* B. s! x6 X6 ]. }+ l2 L# Destate experts, including investors, developers, property company/ C# D1 n$ a% E# ?$ @3 W1 n/ M
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
# m0 o6 H; _3 W4 ~! ]( mOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
) ~" J" G6 u" J! _. ^4 ~. Pincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
* I9 p0 @8 T8 ?$ ~ According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian: ~& P: {- u2 a8 n: w _4 W h* Q
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment* l2 A: x, V0 G" i6 d; ?, S; X
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
# Y( ~8 _6 U) D* U; k! Wbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 ]5 F9 o, I0 Z; ?highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.": |! |( t+ c% s- s9 v' m
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the' _7 Z( B8 V. n
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game2 M7 }2 ? G v# O% V
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
# Z& ?1 W. t: Cremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US A' n! V: q4 ~1 y2 a7 M# i
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
( h8 k& u+ L) h' c3 vvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
/ a' }1 _) i! m' Z- C The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian M( U }( b( [
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by c, Y& G$ W# L( r
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
. \$ X7 w1 D/ U* s0 h h: t4 rdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country! [6 U9 X4 o a$ o# a9 ?
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
! m) O9 k+ P1 Z3 Hdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The4 O* X( K. }3 q0 F N5 y. f
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
& I9 v4 L( ?! t Qtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
0 K C, b5 t! K, C* tsingle-family housing looks overpriced.$ f. A7 p* w3 q! u: K7 b P
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
8 I+ R5 K3 C, B! F3 Xtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
/ ~. p0 w! X- m& H: t6 j8 ]metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
( G0 m9 G9 A5 z: l! w* [8 D/ |$ y Khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting# w5 K) [8 a1 M" a5 ~% W
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
9 ~9 W9 L r+ t- _- _/ Dand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
7 X) U) n2 A9 D. J0 _apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary! S2 k: ^6 C& I! f4 w& b7 @' ^
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing4 d0 b! L' I8 B8 o, Y
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into" O; q5 Y0 g& B) l# `9 P
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development3 F2 j# G+ b( J+ {0 T. z: [5 M% u
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.) o3 Z& I- D# z4 ^; |4 V* A
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Canadian Markets to Watch3 h6 a" n1 E) J2 h3 L$ ]# `
) G, C2 P' F8 ?" Q The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central9 o1 S( p, P, c0 _- v
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
5 }( s* K6 k( A- x1 g7 L% aneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) c7 S' M! [7 t% j0 ainto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
4 g# l1 O% E7 `" j4 idowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical7 d5 M) p7 t- {4 P
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out& l2 q5 I) C E& i- |1 O8 ?
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
X9 a: p/ o& O0 R' Xprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; a C/ q( l& T3 }+ v6 Uwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.9 J$ K! X5 ?" z' T0 D
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
1 T: H: E- d8 W Gratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.3 ]" c( E+ k! K- Y9 R# P
; H/ T, r$ c c Calgary/Edmonton2 |# {6 v0 X* L. ?4 Y- ~6 b9 Q
! J7 U% y0 y$ O3 G Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one, C. |/ M+ P3 ?, O" D' @! o
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
/ p( p5 X+ }! m0 a! r4 B- bbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,7 u5 b4 g9 g' S( R( @
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.3 R( v3 i, G; \5 o4 O" s& l
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
1 Q/ Q$ `+ w4 g9 h* U7 X- yHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the" j# z' F, X8 K( x0 h1 z, R# h
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays/ i: D+ Z3 b4 {
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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; k/ S% L6 F% p' t t9 H Vancouver4 \7 N* [. d5 d. w) A/ F$ R* p
u9 k3 }% c0 K9 n( g" ^ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is/ e X M9 H. Z9 j% `2 i$ `
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' K; x! ^) C. q4 ^7 I# N8 k; S
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
1 D2 K0 m( v1 C2 a5 a0 P9 ]market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
. w' Z' U3 x: n( P/ `, m4 Rgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
# [6 k. F3 t! j4 }3 Grecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
+ ^0 \+ y G+ S$ |0 w; |7 A% Y. T: Ifor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
/ [1 G0 j7 c* m) O) L& Jfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
# d/ N; Y8 |/ B2 Y! t8 U1 p- N& agood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.- m; D/ u; B! I; R, e2 j
4 `: B$ O& I) M7 @, y" ^ Toronto7 K2 ^" n+ M: C1 u
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
$ w- L& s. x0 dmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
5 h4 H( @: N* ~& H1 d% ]3 W' rrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
8 x6 i; V: b( X$ D4 zindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# M" c, X9 T% e) k. f/ KThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
* G5 j/ C& p) z/ J. |4 o' \- Lfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and }; B3 }/ J |9 z
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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# x4 T/ H, x! k Montreal
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_7 U+ ]; R1 a% t' O$ j Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall3 L# J7 |6 ~( p
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 G! N) O+ M8 u( ^) [1 ^6 ishop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
; d% g) ?" c# L0 ACanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate8 X5 {3 S" A# ]. ]2 Y- o
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
7 {9 {4 P' a) ?1 K* j r3 J1 d, jhigher as a "hold" recommendation., Y6 Q6 I# [" I0 P# o4 Z
6 V! w. r% M3 a6 N* w: ] The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
8 |$ d* n, |- {include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy7 h+ b3 L. P8 Q% v0 t
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 W( |$ r& [; d- I
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest6 z- V0 [4 m1 @* u
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current1 N1 [/ Z& r; K5 G/ D
prices."
) C! g% W* ?! z A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
5 b9 ~) w! X+ cwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers5 R g! o. n# f! w: o
/ f c6 O: w3 }* ?0 I8 N5 P+ c PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
3 M/ ?% y7 g- ~' L$ a: d6 ctax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
3 w7 r+ V" W# e6 _$ Qclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries# D% s0 G6 o; }, Q/ H8 m$ C
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop V% E: X% o# F" `/ a
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of0 N0 f" L9 i% A( v' `9 e: T) E
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its! S k( A1 p- R8 R0 W
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
# r2 y! u' M+ B- t. T. I0 s" dcountry.
! Q" Z. R) o- f$ n& F" [$ t "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
) Y; x) F! ]4 ]limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
3 f* m9 ?# j8 r2 a. gPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,7 l1 i; ?* b3 @2 B0 i- l5 `
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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( g6 |# n' I2 |, x2 {# Y. ?/ b0 Q! G About the Urban Land Institute
5 k6 x( T4 L/ n8 T8 b
7 w+ M9 I& z% E; D The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and. J- J4 s( E+ W) S1 j5 h/ G6 r
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
, z+ a# C* D/ C; n* |: _leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating+ G7 h' {/ ?. O3 h- a
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
# T9 Q$ b( v7 O: T% \* U# ]than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
5 U! \: f9 }# g; G6 }! Z3 A7 Wdisciplines.
# @3 o7 T8 J8 D The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.: z4 K4 w% C, O. \0 n1 u
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District4 j* M8 \4 T e {
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
) i4 a, k) }) h( Gnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
3 t$ c. I' U9 ?' @hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,9 e# h; ?/ b7 b6 W" F9 V
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 v3 N) e3 J* a2 @7 O
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
- L& c" S j9 v: q* {1 VPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please! H! q) q1 J0 S; X6 K$ \
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
& S6 R8 K, K2 K5 F( U2 {4 m' fthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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1 s8 O: R8 s. {0 q3 K, G7 MFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,& e7 J1 n( K: q# {& ~
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com5 y( e) G9 h9 n# T! k( B) |* y
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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