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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ; b- O7 A/ X# u6 c9 R* a9 _
1 m' [* D: ^. e* g1 ~Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat e) r$ c( G' c0 [6 C$ w
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
' E1 R, d5 A) v$ ]" Q: b0 Gcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
$ d7 a* j, f/ ]9 \as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging4 r9 z3 \5 t/ l( ~5 a. i
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
9 {0 x* a* r7 E9 L2 Qand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
. H+ Y5 J' P L) l0 }6 eupbeat.
' w- |; A7 I: J8 m7 X1 Y8 w Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded, j$ a& ?( y0 k+ u
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
8 l7 ~" [3 i0 a# | ainterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real% w# ^* L" n7 s6 w) J. D( C; M
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company- W' j$ d/ v" `* T2 Y& W
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.+ Z* o$ W- [) \7 Y
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
. [6 l3 y/ H; W# N6 p Jincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.( r. ~- }& |% @' C
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian# V2 e- ~5 @ f) R9 U8 a
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment% F1 H8 B1 H. [7 ]
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
- o2 N/ u; W! P* D3 Qbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 Y+ R0 F$ A. D& w2 @' d- Y4 ~- Chighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
" h: Z" Y, h4 Q6 \0 j According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
4 ?; o) A- `# H2 @, o' Fborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
1 D) U: a: `9 R7 D0 vspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey" P( H& ?6 v" x
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US$ E9 J" m( g2 ]9 i
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be5 |9 F0 Y5 t6 m* ?: z
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.0 }* V2 J4 D/ Z, }3 q+ X4 O/ h
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian4 d- z+ K, p! k0 Y
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
# q/ e- f) `$ z& bcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land- {0 S4 W' `6 C- l8 n# ~
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
& F6 I" T- h: o" w& D6 }especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating5 B) Q: a1 @. o% w W5 y3 j, h
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
1 d5 w: \; t9 n* U! y) L6 gresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! N& N1 r! b6 T: }; V: \
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and) V# ~; O1 ]' N% \4 x5 m
single-family housing looks overpriced.
- l0 @7 h6 V/ r6 F6 ^ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with* K, _$ w, V9 `# s* I9 r* b
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
$ P' U9 I% i) B2 x J3 hmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push% O. T+ |. b& a% b
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting& v' f$ Z4 t" V( R6 c% p9 G9 Y
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
; f% B( \# C* Z2 \, k! Pand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
K/ v0 ~ f9 j7 w& ?% ]3 tapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary( V2 O& A: ^3 D) z6 r* e" z% O7 o3 X
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing _" h s1 X7 k* {$ x. k% L
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into3 U+ |1 t4 ^0 K0 k
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development8 x. J' u+ _& P4 Y
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.1 B; Q$ z( y) j4 U& M& Z8 @
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Canadian Markets to Watch7 }8 x# i8 O3 e' U% }
i" U! M4 s# D The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central- u& h1 m. N/ j- i) S; }
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour9 N) {; A0 H3 |
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
7 o0 @4 _+ H5 {) t; ^into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in9 F5 G ]8 C: }$ r: N
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
1 e6 @: _& P. ?2 j/ e7 ?9 G k: `projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
1 X/ Q, Z g7 l( [: V, iwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
! `9 ^9 W( Q/ @. @: {prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; o5 u6 c- v( M- D( T3 }$ m" Vwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.# a5 i* S" i7 a5 ]5 O# n! k
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
8 c$ E0 C5 Y$ Zratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging./ P, K8 n* E4 ? a" d$ b; B# y
7 i x: e( S1 D, P+ Z Y# o
Calgary/Edmonton
4 U! |5 M& ?; o
" S6 S; N1 j. s3 r$ m% N1 S6 ~ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
% d" w$ B& j% U3 k4 R) Yboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a$ l; j1 s% e+ N( E6 H" E! h7 _
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,, p C8 T$ c- g8 H- C
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
+ W1 N) K2 `5 O3 LFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale. {+ c9 c& h4 A
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
+ j8 j" m. p" X3 w% _/ T+ E cCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays, }! I& P# d! G8 Q$ L1 j
strong, this market will continue to do well.
% Y( G" P6 ? l2 y# \. P0 E: R5 a( D2 S
Vancouver
2 B- }7 `. o0 T3 _$ H4 d
7 `8 J" c/ M4 n. U3 J! j7 @ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is# ~% \. s# H- K( K7 L* {6 q
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous6 v( q: D" p A1 D
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the/ C6 S; v% X+ }+ w0 |0 k
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
1 ~2 u& w1 F/ ]# M% pgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy; W+ Y* \% c) l& a: a4 l
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
0 z& F6 ^0 y% W' t8 W) ^# yfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%: N( f8 E: }* n8 x
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very& V7 Y0 I! L' {- Z- M% K/ i& w
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
& U$ D& s7 N1 W( E
9 s1 p1 n% w K; @& T& d Toronto
/ u( p% A5 N/ x/ {# O3 \8 Y8 h& d; R$ i2 I- l- _/ s7 f% v4 U! s1 V/ ]" z
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and4 X. S5 R# M: C& Y
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is- c8 H3 ^. O$ b' C# o4 M3 f
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
" u8 M& N+ H1 f/ o5 |industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
. t8 g3 C9 Y" X* `+ o3 h3 IThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square9 ~) S% J% h* V- Z+ f; E
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and5 n3 q: f+ F: V( T: ], L7 s
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
. v% Z2 I8 ?" p( \; x* V8 e/ M, |9 a$ V% @) Y# G* P9 s
Montreal
! M- t( O, L2 G; z
6 M" j* V, a4 S# f Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall1 [1 r$ x; i* P9 r# x
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up& D( j; V" [$ z @
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in0 h. D* ]( A5 \5 d
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate+ b4 V- c5 p+ m1 _
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
/ A. |- s2 k" Ahigher as a "hold" recommendation.' I2 x0 c, g4 D4 M! i: k; O
6 |# ^3 |7 i+ j+ G @+ C! M
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years+ h/ s" f. t+ Y+ O. B+ j
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
( B2 d1 x; ?: w5 q1 f1 vmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos9 W) [! [& t# O) t
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
! |+ }3 e, r; I5 M+ [3 a j5 @6 ~overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current& x) D! P8 L( l: M
prices."
* A& m# F9 Z- S$ d/ o+ v3 l A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at0 r7 t* `8 X7 q( Q
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.0 O+ h/ T) e- m4 |* u4 m5 Y
% P f3 g% g5 P7 I3 d About PricewaterhouseCoopers! s( `& G" {# }/ f' h. L" d2 f
4 j* g6 I, I8 i! g4 y! ~& B4 e1 y PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
$ J; ~" Y1 l# F- o# Btax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its' d z+ e/ h. D* N* n
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) P9 A7 Q/ ~2 n- Jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
n) F! I4 o% d$ B0 s, l2 O: qfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of+ f; M2 [) s& F; H& A
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
`1 J8 A6 K5 Q2 I1 u0 Urelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
8 D4 a5 U: B7 Y6 {" jcountry. Y3 h! E. }/ v( D) m6 O. m3 l4 O
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* Q$ I/ d9 q5 g4 D$ y. d/ slimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the6 Z/ B. W# ^( l/ j7 ~
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,) R: M0 w& [6 p0 U7 i! W
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
% v* O% h* _1 r' F+ r. |% R% X0 \" Q2 h
About the Urban Land Institute
, i! m, ?' h% U* S {) ?( v. y$ S
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
4 H, A7 {- R/ Yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
: a8 q& ?9 m# A, |; R3 nleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating2 |+ F# x/ V. A
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
5 A+ J# y# g" j( L8 f/ {than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
2 y( e1 x3 L4 k; |0 ?disciplines.4 c5 g, [2 L2 ^) @- u
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
- i/ \$ K: s) M7 l* EWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
* P. ~" z( J/ fCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
5 ^) J1 K5 f: ?* ~, gnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
# \& ?/ Y6 E% A) fhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,* z: J( J- F9 V- r; g
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
# d8 c" W. F5 D) x- vHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
; {% {/ y4 x* U; o; o+ ZPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
/ t" v u4 g- z T8 b) [call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on4 m8 k8 j0 G! }0 w2 J% v( y
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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8 s) n% n/ W( ?) @) i, B6 p" _8 V2 G+ N+ Y& O- E5 t. r
: d0 P5 v# V( {% F) k
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
! x0 e+ \: H6 g( O E(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com" j$ G% W: d0 t" a1 L
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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