Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
9 J. K1 P: j8 wMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
: ^+ n+ P7 h, |0 w; qIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
! O7 o( B2 M. s* r4 H# e) R  \
( i! G) z, _2 {) y0 F; o9 Q) i3 X+ lDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
/ z7 @, R4 _" e; F" ?( H- a
+ u: V4 L7 A0 T# h& W2 VOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

" a" Y$ R3 K! H' LSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
8 f( X5 q6 a0 @$ F" l/ W
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
410,000
2 t' P( W4 [4 k6 {3 h 320
28
6 C/ ?: Q9 b2 ~' x5 ]2 S# Z 31%

Jun 2007
' l& K  @  j! s NA
2661
1011
6 N! u# [2 a8 ^ 442,817
  `7 g0 M* k0 [. N3 ^9 E3 z+ Z9 w8 V 409,000
328
, L. }! L3 [$ S6 g) g- b 22
/ W" g) @8 X, s 38%
( V9 P6 Z: c; t0 Z
May 2007
NA
$ u3 \5 @4 [3 C6 z" x  D 2288
1261
2 f- R4 U: q$ f' T" f 451,216
415,000
1 O; N9 N% O: I+ J! ] 322
: z" g) A( k7 e" E* M8 E 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
; Z; i, s6 F: g) F这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
0 o/ I$ j' O. D! n鉴定完毕！

4 S9 q1 c0 O( k用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2 |& U8 d$ l3 n8 Y. G9 a9 V2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
% ]% p3 o% R& Y$ V3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
, [7 I% R. M  l! U  R; o存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

6 g- b3 w* u5 o7 }4 }+ {呵呵，太不专业了吧。
' D5 t  v" H/ z) p3 Y2 W5 R( H
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
6 f5 }: P: y, d3 P- i# Y
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
) N& N/ p1 n; _5 l' s
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

0 d7 e) ]1 D6 ^: P; U* y# I6 {

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
9 H) {2 F! ~, \& o# {( pDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
5 K% R  ]+ N! Z0 r2 ^Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
; f! R  B/ y1 j: B6 t6 r" sHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
" s; s6 P. s7 l2 L* v4 S3 tgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
9 R. Y$ @( G7 ]5 ]3 S( DIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
& K2 d  U, @4 NIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
: s+ i- E" V0 q; X# t* WHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

$ O  P( l2 x/ \. j- X! ~# p9 uI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
2 s3 U( m4 {$ qMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

0 z- o% C4 h) l6 z$ {QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
- V: |8 H$ v1 ~# s$ ~2 ]

4 `$ B: @- E, U4 Y8 CI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

) t. Z# m9 s# g7 g$ ]

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
* @  ~# e4 q7 k  ?3 _" Q& V1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

6 A9 |. ]8 t& S0 n% h下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
' q  I5 s  v6 u4 b9 [


只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
: x; o% c' L0 |- {6 c看来，观察days inventory 更重要。