Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
$ w5 G8 ^4 j7 d3 u8 }% Q& iMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

$ z, J' P2 W5 e0 DOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

( u! B6 M) {- {% XSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
: m8 E: i$ }; o0 g
4 E- M! F" [" I1 W) T7 @' cAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
( T4 a' }2 ^  R% T
& p# O" x& ~& \/ a4 @Jul 2007
+ K: n6 m) B' o8 @& Q8 m' R NA
2328
+ O8 w9 U1 F8 Q+ x4 U 717
442,752
410,000
( T3 F  o" H& {  v0 P6 \ 320
+ L# K1 d( x' g# d 28
31%
+ y& B& r. O3 @4 y
Jun 2007
1 D! p1 P" j* p2 S0 C9 T3 q0 t NA
2661
5 @+ J! f% [0 T4 p1 P" P: F8 x 1011
442,817
+ ^2 N* \6 j9 x$ e  i4 j 409,000
$ V# @1 c) x! a2 I( H% U. n6 m 328
8 q0 d  m; o  u. D8 ] 22
38%

% G0 h; b& a1 d$ J8 s5 nMay 2007
NA
! U. U4 @3 H/ x! h! w8 \& [! ~; L; P 2288
1261
! O- }" J: O9 C8 c9 K 451,216
0 X2 C. }" z  a; W* n6 y7 h 415,000
322
19
0 V# P2 X) r8 g2 l6 t7 i 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
! q  S+ _1 |) D) Y. h# O/ x这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
3 D' R6 w3 Y) M( a鉴定完毕！

, u) ?5 {6 Z" _: V  c8 t) C
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' z7 g" f0 D- v2 S) R3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
3 K, A( f+ U  I# P$ J# H5 C) A存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

  B+ w& D) h( z4 [" I% j
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
& p8 }8 j( {7 M5 q6 t
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
" T# @4 k, m. p8 r9 x$ j( j
# h5 L6 P1 D& l$ s# S就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
/ A! T/ u/ ~8 {# M- v9 M! c* P
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% e& l$ R8 c0 s6 z

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" n8 C8 a/ z; V  ^, {% UIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
! E5 \7 A- {% U, p$ c) JHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
1 ?# z2 d- K# V* S/ Q  G/ JHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

+ ~" ?8 T7 H* BI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
0 B. o3 P5 [8 k6 M  V$ u8 QMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
3 L7 x' P- }, h& l! i$ @3 v# sIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
8 H' L5 q' ^0 K' y6 p" J5 L2 x* ^Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
& N- F, u# `/ V; X* J& s9 |: `2 N6 W

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

% y* @6 A. g& M' m

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
% S, f4 |) I1 T: u0 |1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
/ |( F+ y, S" Y7 i# g2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
. o4 A+ a5 ]4 T( ?6 X3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

# w( z" J" t% M- R4 J6 a- ]: y4 Z下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

" F( t1 V5 H/ r5 h5 ]
9 q( i  M# X7 r6 H
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
$ i/ P6 ]# u6 S' g看来，观察days inventory 更重要。