Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 H' I8 G2 g2 y; s% wMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
: U# R! t6 H# X( C1 J' E. |Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

3 d" }9 l* ~- g1 XDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
% Q/ q% R* i! u" y' H
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
9 `" y- K4 U2 K8 h4 W- w- E
4 C& m* O% i( \/ ]Jul 2007
: u1 E1 z" v9 v9 i7 e6 @; u NA
, ~: J# N" v# N4 i8 `. G 2328
717
442,752
410,000
320
9 L* T9 Z2 N& k' I7 U  t 28
31%
0 s9 D6 M: `( {- {7 I4 X
Jun 2007
) `5 g& _/ `4 A$ C3 p6 Z NA
2661
1011
4 U" k" K" E7 I0 M4 Y 442,817
409,000
328
22
7 B" m' u' k; x 38%
: C7 w7 m9 ]9 i
May 2007
0 q( h/ y% O' z3 J& L5 u0 f NA
0 W! C( x/ ~! z. c2 M+ D/ r 2288
0 Y; f: C7 g4 D3 G4 U8 g4 g1 _ 1261
1 S1 l. j* F/ r+ ~9 s. B 451,216
) J( V. \3 s5 m9 u7 k) o 415,000
322
: s* F3 S) I# W 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 U0 B2 x# W# [( E鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
4 R% W9 Z; H4 f+ Y" J3 a& g( W这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ @9 n9 k* Z1 ]. l存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
1 F& ]% O! y" T: _, h$ S7 V鉴定完毕！

/ q1 |' q  P  h- ]% Y. w1 H# R用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
: ]: \  y1 Q  d& R9 O2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
  s; ~7 }" Q9 c) ?4 m3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

8 U6 d' m3 j8 Z- U. y5 C. L
4 `+ o( S: w4 h% \& F5 r( r呵呵，太不专业了吧。
( R% t' L3 H. [) j- \
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
: h" b+ e+ D1 H, M, J% ~# U6 H
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

9 f3 F+ [' l1 V) a2 D这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& d$ h3 m- F4 Q& ^7 E

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
% y5 K  e. v, n  A5 p- X' WDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
( ]3 k- N5 l! G% R! ]Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
. T; f" l; G/ d, T% x4 Q5 dHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
5 {5 m  j6 e! f0 w5 j# \  h2 LIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 L, f( }3 h1 }2 IHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
2 ~/ H+ a5 h" e) |. g, ?4 |. XEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
/ b' k; C* z2 G2 ?Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ X, F% P1 x4 T- _6 u$ y/ `# xNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

5 |/ e* [4 Y0 B" {( s2 QQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

+ x0 k! d9 p9 b. j* o; B
4 @% z7 [8 ], S" J/ uI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

5 \8 ~. J5 D8 d. d
3 C6 {; n* G) E+ g$ u. Q% Y7 y
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。