Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
0 Q7 r4 r8 v3 @  h3 W. oIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
/ U. S2 h( L: A! ~, a( Y
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
6 s/ L- K$ E4 H) J$ [8 w  C+ d; T8 V, e
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

! {1 [8 f! M$ _) u" BSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2 X% v  n2 @2 d9 K. S7 [; r 2328
717
& C5 Z, Q1 A: X$ H) l: t9 [  E" y 442,752
) P3 s$ i( [: a; |5 w: E5 n 410,000
. o  x  r; S9 Q" i 320
28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
4 W8 l- _  r2 e' W, p 442,817
3 ?$ h" H& s/ D8 _' A 409,000
$ A+ C4 K& h1 I$ U& u5 B, ?) g 328
( P2 f2 [; Y- n% p& H 22
38%
9 o# W# q& _' J+ u1 g6 Y! R7 \
May 2007
" M& g; l$ [3 A5 k8 F NA
2288
0 @. M5 p% r  E" x) b8 g 1261
  F# l: H) G" K4 i  A* ?, ]% L/ Y6 K 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 B, E+ n0 q1 A1 H4 D鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
( w& a( f! m, F1 J这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( x9 l8 |! X) H% z- Z1 ?" T/ h鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3 d: F7 u2 o' I! c: Q3 j3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
5 }% [3 `' O/ G* r- @) Y* M$ L鉴定完毕！

6 ]! e) {5 D1 Z6 c
' Z1 E, x6 {: X9 t2 V8 h% t/ Y呵呵，太不专业了吧。

7 I  J2 x1 k) i新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
8 k/ \& z: [# l" u0 ]* lDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

( O' p  f  V; l, U) A( P5 w. N& a/ M

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
, {9 M2 X# A; CIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
7 b; v) N( V: T  iHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
/ w/ ?6 N0 i. H& v" SThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
/ }$ M" M( E) V2 y$ P. @8 U! wIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
- n0 @% C" I5 n; PHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

% _$ ?. \% H( ]7 C7 j2 S
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
6 b6 Q0 O' U$ s( p, ~MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
1 F  w! }# s, S  u/ R+ _Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

1 _7 G, D& u9 y- g. b# TQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

  N, G2 m/ F* m2 E, J: a
3 u* @  Z7 z" r$ LI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

- p& h; c* @3 J4 Y+ i& h4 {

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; }/ R1 Y* I) b3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

8 n7 k" f5 f* L
, C1 I4 T/ r) r. f/ c下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
3 E: T) F8 F: i4 W
( u! g6 E7 i8 W3 A- f2 l
! d  y% T4 D! R: [; h% f/ e
6 R; ]$ s2 D: I) C% ^$ o  P只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。