Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
9 D! D- c& [: F6 }$ |+ I
  f9 E6 [4 H. a. k+ pDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
4 Q" {9 ^0 l, L( i5 X" u$ r
1 t; U5 k4 y) q9 P7 B! a6 r8 m$ hOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
3 t9 e  z0 l* f
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
: Q- _. K& j. a8 v
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
+ h1 a$ d4 p9 u! I! R8 g- G2 Q/ | 2328
9 N# M1 e% o: r: h0 X+ A5 W9 J- K 717
- R/ b3 x5 K* S- H% y 442,752
410,000
320
, o  c1 X# G- s; k- ?+ d. r 28
) `! g0 E* @" Z, q, L2 } 31%
9 T. ^/ {3 }; D! b* @3 |/ w
Jun 2007
& u2 W5 ?) K( A+ w7 {5 l1 Z NA
* `! W7 h& ?2 @ 2661
1 ^) P) Z! c) H- T. N0 {4 B 1011
% G1 D) q3 n4 ?: e% f3 r  z 442,817
409,000
0 d7 ?: ~, [+ o7 J/ W 328
22
38%

  ?5 D) R8 q+ |1 _  ?6 E4 ]May 2007
+ q- w9 k" A0 { NA
$ ^. [- m3 v2 Y" `( ~ 2288
. x/ V! \" x/ u  c3 K$ H; y" o- o1 u 1261
! m5 ?" p8 S0 ]) O' ^' } 451,216
415,000
322
3 {$ r7 e$ [- @* A4 \' ~  [2 f 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 J6 }% f+ z0 [鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
7 `7 ^! c) r; d! l4 @) Z存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
  O6 h, s/ Y8 Z& p" Y鉴定完毕！

! X1 k2 b: p) ]/ j. O3 E8 I( ?: g- j7 Y
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
3 ?5 n9 r# W% W2 i
/ d5 w  Z) l9 o6 A. Q8 e! k新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
* e+ _/ b/ k1 Y- `
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' d% P! o# m3 j5 e! N* J

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
3 Q9 s  {( a% n0 p! fThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
1 g. Z/ ~. n' z! z. M3 Q; yIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
  N/ X) Y) ~6 wEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

$ N) i3 B: ~4 O4 [& @0 E+ K7 g
& e( m% @" S" r. O5 S' C! MI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
2 @4 l8 o$ I* ]1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
/ _0 c& y& A5 s6 N8 W$ H" W% G: h+ M: H3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

7 _# b% \& A" b+ B- W" C下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
: e' b0 n; d1 H: O" C
6 R. O; Y# `- j8 s# O5 f( G
5 o: T- ~8 k6 c3 u3 @+ A
# F2 s. @* N- k1 U- \4 F( u/ q9 F只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
& {% l2 [. B& l# y看来，观察days inventory 更重要。