Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
1 C1 j+ H- ?1 J7 y" }Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
0 w2 W) h. J, D0 ?. \! _  oNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

8 p( Y* U9 ?4 a( U1 j& [: y, [$ b/ KOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

0 ?; a% s' n- ]7 C5 m0 NAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

& E2 U+ A) B2 A/ a( H; yJul 2007
9 d3 a7 J6 Q0 ~ NA
5 M2 H7 f) Y% L. x, ?, ~ 2328
: u9 G: P: j  _, S2 |/ B9 b$ k) o 717
442,752
410,000
320
28
31%
, a3 c3 g8 k4 T" Z
Jun 2007
5 M! Q6 U, z5 B+ F: Y  Y NA
: ~' ^$ |6 @" W2 W/ y0 _ 2661
1011
442,817
6 }1 x& N5 w7 K/ s: `1 u 409,000
328
- g* O' x6 K0 C  g  o+ ~/ K: x  a6 A 22
38%
% W5 b6 h8 T  v( w
2 G6 V4 N5 Z, pMay 2007
NA
: F! [# J% e. [0 B! j& o 2288
# Y3 L; p- D! R3 O 1261
451,216
415,000
& _4 P" ?9 ^& }( C 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' Y' l/ K1 W6 E: W9 c, {鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
4 p/ {9 u4 T& j2 ]这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

9 C$ _; U1 r5 h! V! s
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
6 e" S& T6 v. L5 P7 ~2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
7 R2 ]# [) c: A8 h存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
6 u5 A- ~  n% @5 `0 u8 c鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
" R  C( ~# P9 t
% o5 Z9 H# k4 `新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

: b' M+ W( E& B: V/ \就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
% U. E1 u2 ~8 [' @" T# k; ^
' h( p% W0 G" S+ L& g, P( \这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
( P% A7 O* D0 _8 i% gDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

9 `$ L" f3 Q9 v9 \( i

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
8 ~6 g: U/ W# y+ H6 N4 U& [Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
& \, E- i3 E1 rThat is what i say half full or half empty.
6 C' J4 O- u% D  L; [2 j! [# T# igood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
! c+ ?4 a; g2 E% bIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
; r' O1 y, ?) ZMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

6 R' Y1 Z! I8 W0 m6 RQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
1 C. R* a5 B/ G1 [
6 r) {2 ~4 Q; w& P
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

& ]# t- u! ~! J, P

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
9 _! B$ {9 T: Z% b" v& o4 U1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
' M% c( ^7 v' ^2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
% A: }" d% [+ }

3 k9 j- O1 Z( y7 d; @
% \1 r9 A7 r# m+ v8 S. r( J只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。