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Long US

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鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 10:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
" |6 G, v! p8 e, v- B) N) q& p' ^4 wNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.1 T% m5 R9 |. L: A! X
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
6 a# O! r9 i, y  |- h7 M4 p& j# LTD can give you 4.2%.
  F2 a8 [5 s; u, s2 g. uBMO can give you 4.3%.+ f( U, h- |5 `  ^9 v) _, p9 q6 d
RBC can give you 4.0%.
  U  V0 j5 ]2 C9 ^(Roughly)
3 [( i  n- M% v& ^" f- P6 H1 X- J0 QIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.  @+ W7 T, N) {, x2 D; \3 p
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.- j" ]1 q6 w! w
Also, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
- b: q7 j( D+ H! T. k$ T! _From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.3 Z/ T+ I7 C2 g6 B! O  @
Rough calculation:* e5 e( L' R* T+ z" h
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
3 m+ u9 n3 M; pBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
: c. s6 \- v( y$ g' MDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
8 T( H: j1 k$ p( z/ d3 YIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
9 ~" r/ q% j8 m! G" B0 S: W: l4 uIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
1 {* L. M& F( }; j" kI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.% w. `2 U$ J/ `; ^* i) O
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
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鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
好多人都在观望18日的利率。
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发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
" Q# H! M3 `, H; B2 VWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
( V2 {$ a0 v1 p8 S6 FNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.' L' J1 A+ N# [% W' K; v! K" F% a
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

8 P- ^6 W* y/ O3 G% S. R$ V8 @' P+ g' a

; k3 C% ~1 {5 C这帐算得不对吧?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
9 ]$ N/ ]1 Q$ f2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
9 Z! K% Q9 ]' M如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。6 c0 e. F# C  [7 t6 u! V
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
& g& v3 E& J/ l政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴,那就不知道了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表 / ]% c) I7 \% E  L3 x1 z
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

" [1 y- ?$ ~* \: P呵呵,多打了个0。
# T6 M3 h, k6 U( x0 m8 n1 F9 O9 B" Y
2 Z, }& r) G/ Q3 [6 L多谢。
$ |& Y! @0 y! [4 q1 Z& D! F
3 M9 m$ Z# g! z9 R) G把其他的去掉个0就可以了。
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-17 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表 0 g# t/ \# @3 u
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
+ V( B' F  j- _9 k# @2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。' J4 e/ _, G  {3 l7 p1 n2 y9 L
如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。- B5 v" C3 {  x$ J, S; b1 A
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。, ]- e1 U# y2 Y* v, r/ M9 R5 z- d* ]8 Z4 R
政府也会需要钱。 ...

8 S: d! s7 G3 o$ l! ?' ]0 B5 {但愿如此。 美元今早强劲, 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
! i4 D& n" q1 l% E+ t0 B) o! m% ~* ]3 i
$ q+ I' ]! l2 s1 u# h- f6 J现在美国经济面临通胀危机,原产品, 石油价格高涨, 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影, 楼市大跌, 破产人数增加, 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
今天北美时间星期1, 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想?
* H) q$ e6 s( g& C3 a% P还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
/ Y. |! [% T+ s% X+ Z" f# t如果来次调整的话,估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
0 f6 q6 u! W1 N/ g) _你说美国政府会不会调整,如果下25BPS的话,会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
9 G( W+ B, C, s4 Z" I* P# |如果我是中国政府的话,我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份,从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange% m; c6 _6 {% J, K  W4 G
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask 0 k8 i' j) G0 N- k- o  \* P" p& V
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264
鲜花(2253) 鸡蛋(32)
发表于 2007-9-18 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]
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