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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts8 R* ~* W5 J4 K3 _, ~8 E. X
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET7 _: _: ?2 `! ~# p$ b: W' @; G
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% U: @* U+ @$ v& FLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.; E/ E0 ~) F5 ^* y t
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! V4 K+ t9 ~4 R/ y0 F: N
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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; n* u4 J- n% C* aThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.7 S3 D7 m, x; u# X- k
" z: h* V2 D% aIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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7 G# |$ D# y$ `1 T/ LMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.2 u' V6 r5 e7 ^2 k2 Z. |' [
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.' I6 z7 q% N& p7 I) {5 K6 F
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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' P/ U8 ~" {. {4 Y) c4 XIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.! T; j, U+ i" J1 G3 |
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”$ ?) A" {, J y3 O: \7 p+ |4 N3 H# H
3 F @6 B" t9 _1 `$ ?( Y: j) ^For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.; i0 g) W# y' @1 k$ Y- M8 J
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.6 c3 x! \7 i8 n. T, a" G; O i: K
9 m* M0 z& M+ g% J9 J7 J/ B vContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010." A+ q& i' Q. D* l. N, s
' N1 m2 n& _+ r# M' gThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.3 H9 _. P7 _) ^7 w7 B, S
. S) q( g7 O3 q1 X9 l- n. P“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.. X7 [6 T- U7 X- x: c+ s2 [
& Q- p8 _) _3 U+ }" U/ aTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.( B" d9 j% `* W/ Y/ n( W4 j" s
. X }) b& p7 T }“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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