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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts- T0 S F( [! a: \! f" s* {
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4 K9 H, h$ B/ L7 d% x3 T: KGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET- k/ X' C& ^$ E" ?5 a
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.7 b) v/ l, h2 [9 W
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants., e/ o2 X* k4 ]& W
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& ]9 ^5 S1 @3 ?8 K1 |OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.; E f3 q# D w. z
1 K3 E7 k, w- l) TThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.2 N8 `$ q! k, ^9 M
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.* L/ `$ s. ]$ I8 T3 N7 ?! V% y
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014., ?, p: E1 b" a$ |
. }0 \. |) s9 e. LAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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& I& D T8 [/ S3 x( sHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.% B7 W- q4 w* h9 r* @
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
9 n5 ]$ l1 M$ [3 L& ?4 [2 yCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’1 v6 o% U# P- @
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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# T' u: x4 K, WThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”& s. O- \: X# q* `) Y& [
0 _2 z+ w! t# a. R+ b PFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year." V3 _% q9 @; f, c# T" U
8 {* f0 {& l- X, I) RCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year." ?+ y' m4 `1 G& d
2 Q1 |7 B* t y- F4 gContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.3 t' V y* P) F7 ^2 @ {. K
; f: [( g- _, o4 B7 L1 u' ?& S1 HMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.7 Y) x% z+ U. q9 ~( ^
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.8 l! W6 @8 I6 T( H) U
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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7 z; C) f# c2 J0 c/ LTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%., {% W9 c& u; x+ B Z R# P; c
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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