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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts7 b, {" \) N" u8 V H+ ]
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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+ N( r" Z) E; ]! b/ @Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
0 u5 W+ G) ]& n; [# T( x2 |' P6 \BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.0 F: D1 ?1 K1 L, X( ~ }6 n0 s
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9 q; i) m; X! D8 P+ G9 UOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.! U! ~, v7 N' L. T- B
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province./ R' E% A$ |# L, C9 Y/ c5 M
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”+ ~; K1 P. j- ~+ Z4 b
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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7 [4 g; b/ x; _$ [2 F“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.: D7 P1 t; i5 }- X( R2 O( ?, e
/ g, U" Z* W9 \% @1 TAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.3 k6 q0 N& x% ^! }5 O7 q! `# q# z
) ?5 j2 o3 a/ G) dIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns9 C0 v6 l3 F5 ^
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
; _5 N: j8 K1 X( Z% S _1 @2 Y3 UThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over( k+ K/ t' e/ l* ?3 _7 E: W
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* r C* t0 Q$ tThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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X3 n; F% r/ `* o7 t$ p“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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; L( T) c3 |7 Q& y, [For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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2 A* `3 F! H7 x9 v- b* {CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.$ |* D# \/ v& j0 G' x
7 ^) P9 ]* f/ \& C: JContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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5 m/ f, y4 g$ ^2 }The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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% E4 n$ _4 \' z* l1 ?2 gMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.2 f* `7 i. l% \8 \: ^9 m
, t( S5 ]* x. u4 S$ H9 t6 |7 T; L' X4 T+ ~“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.8 n1 L# }- f( A- V0 Y
" n( ^) d. R9 n' X1 p6 nTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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