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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts/ |" F; Q5 z* O
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' o+ G7 s* t+ t; z4 SGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET- R4 k+ M" a* _1 U I
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8 D0 q. ~: y3 ?; T8 [Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.2 R' ?) T5 ]9 \( A2 ?9 ~
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.! K" i/ v9 w! k7 _6 _- c; H
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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& }0 a7 p. {$ U3 hIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”# ]) `6 v- Z0 K
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.: H$ V! @# s) R+ j( z
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.- ?: J l5 n8 I" j# X& x1 U
) u) L& u* {! Z, tHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.. E% k/ N* v) q0 d# A% ~: O+ h
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns$ \6 N( N) J+ t k9 b& c p
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’* j) H% i$ I/ c+ N: A, M4 g5 c. x
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.! X7 J( v$ P( n" x& |
1 n1 k) d/ X9 L4 [" R“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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7 m8 c% [; ~+ z2 D1 dFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.5 u- y7 S5 v! J X: \6 y# |
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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, }, j. F5 h2 o+ z0 [+ HContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.* ^8 z" Z( J+ U3 [2 _
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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B6 b1 Q2 C" s n# d9 DMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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8 {9 [; y3 Y2 `! O+ U4 Q2 dThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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5 h1 E! R* J9 [# z1 m q8 @Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%. n7 O+ ~& H# \8 d. w
j' O' L; x. G6 G/ {. E“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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