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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts3 l5 M! Z$ m( u( J- v
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.' W5 B4 v$ S; S; p4 Q6 T1 d; f
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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! G( y% {! F3 ^8 ZOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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7 D: @" Q; D/ SThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.. v0 h& R v! p: u! h& Y F
1 x5 \; N8 w5 I' x. v" ?In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.) O2 j& [4 h5 }8 {& j+ N! e$ ^) V
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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2 E) u5 L. _1 K/ F! B8 ?! nAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.( y! i9 u5 Z! y
. e# p+ f# I( @7 A$ g% \2 qHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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5 c" R; q) x d2 Y) ] u$ ?Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
4 A0 t% V8 K! A7 M- PCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’6 C6 P+ i; a+ n1 J! o" v8 L
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.: A9 n! q0 k8 X# }* Y$ X
0 X/ K: W) R( V: [“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”; }# S# T; B( M S* F
3 J4 f* B# H2 J" wFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.- A, a. Z) Y7 @5 U( [
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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% ?8 ~. W9 T* h% n) X8 {; b* q% e2 ~Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.6 B) H2 X$ f% n$ X, H
5 D5 i0 i. l! P- }! o4 Q- ~ \The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions., j9 ]/ O+ a4 G: l% J. N/ T
. b0 D2 Z" X8 V; u& oMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level. A. r" W$ |+ X( I
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.4 Z; L- n' e* J
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.: R) j# r# u/ ?& p
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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