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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts: _- g6 X& x) x3 G
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7 U- ~; A7 Z' G! {& QGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
* f) x. U4 B# ^$ g" ]# f" c3 ^More from Gordon Isfeld, H0 n5 F: H% t# E( F$ j9 h3 S
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
1 C; s( T( _! N; \7 KBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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+ ]4 H$ U; Z% tOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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$ q O$ v+ y" a* h+ y L; |" fThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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$ f7 q4 Q6 {+ V6 P; x, aIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”9 q( a; o9 l3 F- G$ e2 O( _0 P# k" m
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.- Z8 y4 {( t7 e3 u& ^' V
9 p8 B: @! ]4 [. N: Q0 N“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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0 p7 S: K3 [8 B2 ?8 C3 P1 `4 ]As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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! m2 b' M* P4 }6 f, h8 ~/ WHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.( h {7 ^" q# p
C5 _; ]2 c' D2 CIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.7 m! O, A. b4 ~' l% V/ m
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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5 i3 d, J# A" v2 _2 {* Q“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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0 Y7 m3 R) L* W! jContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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/ }0 D5 i, [0 ]' M2 E5 U+ b. IThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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1 j2 s- p& h$ Z% E, y, |Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.* i+ D! K# p+ D
$ X' n: l. d* P9 x# Q" }The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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- g; s7 ]. M' r. y“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.# w% i5 ?2 Q/ t" Z3 h! R
4 ^9 b# m1 q$ _* u8 G1 nTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.. T: x, Z$ f b; P7 F
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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