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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts4 W K$ D/ q& Q" X7 p! |
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# c9 A4 R8 V: I! a' B4 I5 UGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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+ m! U! s5 i! v# hLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.+ \0 t& j( z0 {! Z- s3 \! H6 Z) b
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.7 @+ B6 Z8 P1 b0 ]$ ], U! ?
0 v; X& O! Z2 A9 A; D5 u3 yIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”+ `! f. H/ b& @) h( Q* v, z
6 n' V2 A0 I: C' i$ |Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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" a! Q" {0 q8 `; K“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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3 X8 c' X0 B* j1 c; S4 u5 \: K! tHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.* @/ l# }% D' M$ y) ?& z
$ ~( j7 u. P/ @% h5 Z0 O1 {In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”3 q7 m( T- M& a: m9 t
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.& W- w8 }6 s! X/ i5 }: Z
! K S, Y% W& X* X% D1 V# XCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.: `. }4 k) O* U2 A
; d7 U0 m3 \ Y) F0 H8 ]( vContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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- {9 P* Q+ y+ T7 _, v! r0 d% ^The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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# g9 ^: \$ d- d& fMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.8 h5 R7 v: g v2 f+ N
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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% N" n$ x4 O' I0 JTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%. o' e! [ H- r! t7 m: ~; E1 m
# B5 u; s( j7 R( K“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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