 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
' \4 A, n; K+ C Z6 [, B* X/ ]
, Q! o, f# |. Q' q* JRepublish Reprint
( y+ |3 t, x3 x# ^8 v* pGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
; @5 J0 K4 d$ q8 D- o: `' w: N/ b! TMore from Gordon Isfeld
, Y: M8 L4 Q% `& \Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants./ S( y# t" U" O( n# z! l: t7 ~
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.% p; N2 C' R" Q$ R/ y
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
{6 `" u: n/ ?9 ~OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
6 }4 m* p( c& ~0 w% S, Z3 V9 A/ R! f4 l$ {+ y" H6 n' O# E
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.9 y2 o1 k. g4 D1 O" s+ P
6 `/ y& f) A9 dIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.” s. `& |0 \( f1 j% ?9 n0 `
; q h' X8 {) x1 |0 B
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
3 k- K7 l' G7 W; I0 F- y' J6 T
1 T$ z. P3 d4 V“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.% S1 A# T! L2 r9 X; v0 p6 Q
( D) i, W) l, m Y" a8 nAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
$ }% ?: r5 h( [# i* C
; E' @# ]$ [8 `) e4 e7 XHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.# P& g* j* t& ^4 v1 g3 W$ p$ {+ g
4 k7 r% t' |& x. t' ]- s
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.2 \# U$ v" {2 U+ {" E) J& M
$ A/ b' `( M- h; i7 Q
Related) Y) J3 ~3 B0 z' {1 e6 G
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns o5 f* K4 c1 I& a+ }
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
9 [/ G5 y9 }. O1 F. u0 c. c" X0 ]The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over1 z5 ~. T% P' p& z9 }8 j% U1 U
Advertisement! r. \5 T9 P O6 ]# I
0 c! C' w6 H( n( p+ N# f. O% P4 T) s9 R* T
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
9 i# S& U* r1 c# X; T! N1 ]/ V4 H- N# {3 L7 j5 x
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”5 p& d8 o0 u- y9 Z- c
. X5 H1 E( M4 n2 D0 A
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
/ g- u) E! V, ?6 B; a9 z. M
. s) |% Y7 [) E0 q% D' X3 O0 [CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.: M8 t0 [! d) t( A9 c4 X/ s0 _
# _; ?$ c. _8 s! ]/ ?% o
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.( n7 X, U" h5 q
$ P/ J" {& |; t7 z( {! JThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.: a5 Y G a- M3 ^0 n+ a
2 V0 G% y0 S1 i7 s8 T1 X' E" K
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
% O$ Z7 k4 p+ U) u$ \
3 t: I7 k, E3 cThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.; h o N+ b/ X* D
1 a: \( S' m. Q+ w" k
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.( R B/ x( f6 f5 a' f
7 U# d. K- P- X+ u5 w8 |6 P/ M- RTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
; {$ |4 S- A) r7 T3 j8 I% y4 {
8 q3 A5 Z' B6 `* R" R“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
