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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts- Z" _/ v6 U! z4 w5 Z
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. ^2 G5 U5 F5 H' c$ l L; L2 KGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET; f) |1 n. s9 x
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3 s) i1 z+ M4 \, t# eLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
. T: e) L9 j6 u4 s8 A9 lBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.7 o6 ]) e) z+ X6 P
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/ a2 s _ U5 s I) D0 f8 x5 gOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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9 ^+ Y; r8 ]+ h3 {4 rThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.8 l" w- @, \# Y( h' B' `8 U [5 g% l
# s: S- \$ V4 h6 Z! RIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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- r) v$ q* y7 G0 ^5 F qMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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* k0 m+ L. Q0 tAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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* V0 i# g! Z" H) ZIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar., I2 }' m, k6 n8 C" t* b* ~
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
9 u# X$ N# ~" D' }Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’' ~( U$ o N& d
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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9 m6 J2 D/ C* \& f9 q6 V- L/ w2 c7 ?“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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- x0 C9 G. Q* [CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.; m3 |; l9 ]. \6 P: s' m. b
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.' U9 h, {0 O' W
+ v) Q1 j6 c8 O- l5 \6 r- fMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.9 b. q: ]8 Q- @0 e9 ~: I
$ l9 C( G% M* V0 d“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.0 N& `) {: Z1 ~- T
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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