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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts# S( _( ^( ~/ |$ d
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET& }2 ?. ?7 q% T( K# n
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.( V1 a9 x7 }2 ?4 V! t9 O% ?
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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7 A% r5 p' ?5 u G3 rThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”7 P" @) h+ U* s5 d$ T4 J, ~
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year." e# M7 ?7 u& ~4 \1 B8 w6 t; f
5 ?% ?( N2 S( t( w; ?7 c“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.6 ~' D+ F) Y6 d* E$ A
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.( U9 ~% I9 C( h7 w
- H* I2 L8 @# p/ [: @/ |" {' aHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.2 f4 J8 R8 @- t; D) t1 K' l+ S
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns M4 P u w& u( Z; W, z) O
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’- \4 D2 k& a8 `. T9 ^0 `3 s7 p
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over8 q3 ?% k/ {+ L* ^
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9 o% G Z! ]6 y& r' h3 LThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.6 g, P) b5 b' M. x0 }5 [ D0 T# N
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.% I- Q% ?+ s. E5 h+ S8 x
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.& Y! q: L0 ]7 h
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.# V- F1 x4 ^/ u" `6 t
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.: X+ b& b- f/ S5 s
5 w; w" S) t' X* B" R, n“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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% D2 M0 p' W9 ^7 m- N) u/ tTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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; f) t& w+ c/ K, a" b# m( D& V- q“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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