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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts" T) r2 f7 ]4 k! Y& a
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET+ t3 a `; L$ q* {* n, a. a
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
/ M6 b! P) @7 |- jBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.7 |7 F% J P) N/ y t; h
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.& P: z# Z, ^/ { J5 P
" I6 ^; L) q7 T, {0 D1 `$ k) HThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province., E+ o$ t" v4 |- M8 Z
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.; d$ i B; ~6 s: f
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.5 l, F, a2 _" ?5 F" }+ u
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn." |6 s+ B# U1 a3 u7 d' ~
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.7 i- S x" f/ R# o) a0 r
- y! `# ]& b. AIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.. J) t8 B" O* [+ ~+ z5 k# w
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns9 Z8 ?% U9 h, p
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’- P9 R, P" j" U5 u7 e- o) h6 p: w
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.+ X; B" C4 X* o2 W# Q# U u. e
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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$ F% O: s) T2 i I% i: v/ p3 \For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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! N7 ` l9 K5 t3 _CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.* r% [; A- a6 A, j
8 Q8 v- Q- ~- ]; \The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.: `. M$ ?5 A6 r; R/ z* O6 e5 U- R
8 P, x0 H. e) _; zMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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2 g/ g/ i j2 {: @) r1 o# AThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.0 D @* X: y) K& P* _
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.* H" i9 t9 _* i. M
2 g# t0 I' N9 J9 }1 g4 |& rTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.' K- b% F! O. _8 r" F6 y
: g6 r! u; z, u4 U5 a0 P( _“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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