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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts# q) X; ^8 X- [0 o6 [$ _8 c
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# `* a3 S& r6 P9 zGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
# o" G; m6 S1 M1 @; K1 l, wMore from Gordon Isfeld& m. @1 A) t3 V9 N
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
( [) h/ l$ B) L1 l9 aBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.2 P4 ^# U, H2 H* P- j$ {. ~% Y
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2 H1 f! O* P. m" R* _ Y* U0 dOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.7 }" b0 s, y4 j* A2 L
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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- O* n7 f1 D* `% Q. F“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014. v: Y. P; t( C
2 k3 ^& b5 b( ^4 ^* @As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.+ \, L5 L" e! [. o
4 ~2 Y5 u/ w% I; D8 J* W. T- c4 @However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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) z: V- K% w6 R& H g% Q7 t6 ~ AIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar., S9 n- d( U0 R% `9 x' i$ q% Y, `
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( [! w$ b' w+ S7 DCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
/ j0 t/ `8 ^/ o/ S9 A7 P MCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’+ ]3 @# {. ]5 Q
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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+ \6 e* B2 S9 F, Q3 JThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.* n0 b( G0 t& f
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”) R+ J% k( A: l2 ?* @
, f" |( [ y* D% `; [# D' z! hFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.' b( {6 b) [! E- L
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.) F0 T! |+ o; Y+ u! n
% d) K" @# j$ O6 n" UContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.0 S" e" @( S6 Y0 M/ L- `' V
. P c" _9 [6 w1 X- E& cThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions., K* Q. L% W$ l9 k3 f5 W& R
1 Q2 d& G2 |- B' M9 F x2 _; QMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.( f% B5 @2 m7 S1 h2 N
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.- _7 q4 C/ R1 X; G/ A
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.+ C4 f& S3 W" m6 R5 B9 Q. j2 @, G
3 m* L6 U1 _% c6 Q6 ~/ PTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%., o3 b' }8 X- x- ^
* D! y/ Q3 y/ X3 G/ |“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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