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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts) S& _% N0 g3 Q+ ?# S% E
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1 ~2 a2 R6 e3 g& t UGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET+ f, P2 x" U# A$ b& z Q0 ?' ]
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1 L! {0 U* y3 ^Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
- r; V4 N9 t9 tBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.$ _$ @2 T4 ]- ^, V* m
- Q" }5 ^. Z$ y( h) X! l- w; {8 TIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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* Q# M9 Z6 c! @! @6 r& HMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.9 B3 K6 x3 n: f e
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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m l6 {, W; p& N; V6 EAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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: _; R; {2 t1 S" g' P0 x8 ?In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.; {" ?5 E5 O; t/ g9 c8 b7 S, A+ F2 U/ b2 ?
/ O! Q) u0 S+ ]1 ]* t" YRelated
8 P+ i8 H5 h# @' q& F7 `, ZCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
/ d: g' X* H! O: P9 VCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’& P( [) ^7 [. D5 P K
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
: f% e$ d1 Z3 @% K4 e# |Advertisement
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend./ o; c/ E* z2 `- R
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”# j: B- q% b0 W7 a
7 c- v/ n. I& s2 U6 Y# z9 h) \For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.- e8 J: A' O$ P, M( |
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.5 O# ]. f' j9 r! u( _* ]8 K: P6 |- c
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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9 D4 {/ r0 n& ~) _/ aTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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