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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts& h# C8 ^2 @ b+ F9 t% s
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET' S! O" P' X2 w+ C& \7 c2 v, g
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5 j, x+ }5 ~0 V6 k! d6 vLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
4 e5 L$ ~* Z- mBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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& w4 J) S1 k, ?7 `That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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" Y" X1 x/ F; QIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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% J7 G' @" m% Z/ DMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.7 W7 V3 a2 R% k6 x
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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, A7 H$ P8 r. hAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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9 M$ v$ P- l8 Y3 k7 I0 WHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.7 p# D+ D B/ {5 p$ u" r
' |! J( B7 X; K. n! v0 N! T( k8 R% J; CIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.2 e& S; y) @/ H# W' u
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' p1 L6 C T- ]The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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/ T- E* t1 Q5 d6 |“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”7 x( s0 Q0 h: m& `
! E4 F f: M5 E& C! H3 \: lFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.) Y2 a6 c. J. t; k) M. o% S" j. M
, j: M1 a2 f p$ y zCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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, Y. R% v" T/ Y4 P% M3 tMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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" K2 x+ P* Y, m7 S3 jThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.4 \9 R8 W! T, f7 h E
5 \+ v% w4 F. w. f* [! A7 W" ^“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.7 Q8 S. E2 `, I
w! X5 s8 I: y1 r STotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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/ P: i( r# V! i% z“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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