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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts' h, L; h& L& e" f8 X
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET' E% K: Y9 D$ Q" G
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7 b$ Q0 e9 v4 F8 b3 _: D/ U1 kLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
( u' O7 K- m& }$ s/ s7 y% U fBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.! a8 Q4 @5 p# ]* z5 n$ {; Y) [; ]- o( [
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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! I3 ~0 h2 W' n0 m- w* j! NIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year. i0 W6 W0 y1 s
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.- V, Q' R' R1 }/ @* c
$ w5 [: _4 ^; P: w" v) f4 U+ XHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.9 d6 v- r' E5 F8 l9 V+ W
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.- ~. s- m1 ?+ l+ D* Y1 p
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Related4 a4 I$ y. y8 Z" Z6 r8 |
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
i% C0 a6 t7 i8 P: Y3 K1 T& VCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
: x% M! u H' r" H3 X9 P7 YThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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+ Z$ v# `% _- Z( {, p6 w) l1 FThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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1 L8 O& d3 }# _% g1 |“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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. ^, d. I2 c1 N/ R6 nFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.( ^/ z/ y! G* j0 l
4 S {, |# g0 c) tCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.! O8 B# E3 w! f7 F& G# W6 A% K
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.( ~# J: f2 `. R5 D/ F
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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; M( |1 U# o; q/ QMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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# X7 G0 s1 d- y' |+ r4 G% T: FThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.; {. h) F, T* d8 C$ D; C
: N6 `+ y6 [) ^8 STotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.8 M. ^5 d* w! E- |
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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