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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts- Z: S1 f8 V; M2 l6 g- F# y
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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1 B( W3 L, ], X2 A& kLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants. u& y; E4 C+ P- u9 S0 o& D7 z! J
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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' W' V! J1 H% m: R- AOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.- W/ ^- v0 d5 b; b
0 Z- p; _3 j9 M+ y3 o# |That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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- K1 k$ \& E5 iMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.6 W2 b$ @& E/ _! o% c. I
9 X4 P+ b3 S) }“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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& ~- J- y. G& b: M8 V* BAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.8 \3 o+ v/ \+ x+ y
/ ~( n5 {' U6 R& _# L8 DHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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# Y" }) }5 i( B9 vIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.& k% L# N7 ~: J: Z( C6 v: Q
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns5 n( F3 \. ?6 R* k
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
$ Q3 ~$ |( Y( ^% V) gThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over" H8 Y" i2 B5 \ u/ d' c% ?5 T+ J
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# O+ U0 A4 U( P1 `% vThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.3 P: H( F) i$ z# c( Y/ b# x, {
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”! }& C. U" h& k R0 `1 Z2 ~
0 ]9 h+ F1 Y; w# e/ ?, `! F" AFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year." y7 S# w& x# H' V! x
% w! R- V7 e8 Q/ D' b( ^Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.! X) I0 e8 }4 r! o. C) G# C4 s
: y, i4 L3 ]) ?3 p: \The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.8 P* |# I" D, Q4 }
4 D7 J' `6 _) Y' U- I n K- vThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.1 f+ o% a1 f1 g" Q8 w$ H
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.- |$ P# `) `* c5 d% k# [: e2 F; `
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.. A9 h" }2 c! {+ ]+ O- N$ O- L# [
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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