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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts" d- R4 W8 D, u
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; ^% ^1 i" s/ Y. c5 v }! B* X6 b1 H2 cGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
& o2 _8 d& @6 B% t1 v, k0 R; ~7 GBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.- W7 O t; f* M2 L+ h9 u- l! l
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3 q2 C* ?6 D) s- G" E a$ hOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.7 }4 f2 b$ X! f. F2 e( H
0 c$ X) k$ t8 qIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”# ~% j" p# Y& u; W
- k: |; c. v3 H+ D v1 ]Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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, b9 P" ^. e! Z9 d) F; g. SAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
9 ^* w2 [) [, w0 X. M8 X- x! kCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’' @; `* P9 V" C( {
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over" d! C1 `9 @, l8 o2 {9 O4 \* H
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.9 A; O( p; F# {
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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' y8 `' S1 ]4 I4 a3 M/ i8 O9 E1 uFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year. V1 P1 Y0 M; w
. _& r8 j6 i9 K+ ]0 pCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.$ u. `0 Z9 B, L3 @4 c* z9 G5 ]
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.; e3 A9 i/ R/ W( P6 q
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions., q" v: q4 I9 ^8 j, b& }
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level./ b @8 |2 @, u2 K$ e( n9 A4 g
8 w- ^! b6 C! Z ?* ?The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday. s7 S5 p6 j) r# \; f
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.! }& w8 r% \: V5 P: I
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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