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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts+ F5 Z# d% _" G- J
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1 {9 O W$ S0 b) A6 c/ SGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET+ W+ h5 |9 J, I V& c, Q
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2 M6 I" R! F, K: v# U) I& nLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
3 d& {' \$ F/ s; Y$ SBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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. i3 r5 Z" m: oOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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b* J" f# ?+ u/ PThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.* c8 W: L. N* J4 V4 l/ J
4 u# l* C' b* \4 [, OIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.7 o' b8 J8 ]* R4 J9 q
! `% @0 r* N# X) cAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.0 e( ~: h9 G* S6 V8 ]
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.$ @5 y3 D; @9 s5 {# A# R* i
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.6 n6 c5 A# m, |- F' Q( ?
+ B3 j C% H( W5 I0 w8 RRelated
% a3 x9 f- m* DCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns5 o; o) y! m8 V2 L
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
% h/ P f$ l" [3 ~. w- E$ eThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over. D& s, k# P4 r( \' o* D
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' ?9 E* \' g9 b" O( e1 VThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend./ ?7 |8 M' `) ~. W
: P4 w. ?2 \5 q6 V, ` A“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”: ^7 I4 K# w3 C5 u! B
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year. k/ }* J9 N6 z' t3 ]# B8 r
9 I& o( F. ]. e# I/ h, T% ICIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.5 C% P3 j: r" z. [$ b" n, a; P+ h
* K3 C) B8 k5 y, M9 \2 o5 z! o: |Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.5 s" A2 o- Z- ^8 M5 `3 j/ R
+ h: T2 z0 o; _) n2 B+ L0 XMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.' O: v: G5 T7 ^" J: X+ T, q
* x$ A* r2 Y8 l* x2 [/ [7 XThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.7 `" \# L% E) N6 c6 K9 i/ |& K
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.1 J. b" n/ }1 o( x3 Q) V1 c5 h
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.& _* r5 ^: e. H
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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