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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts5 F) S8 O$ r: C
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET5 x9 }% P$ X3 W- A3 n1 z! m, l
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u5 d5 o* A' _) z% LLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
/ _" L4 U' n4 G+ |BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.& Q" U7 ~: h9 Q! C! D
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.9 ?# E2 `1 s T+ ]9 \& t5 y
: |; H6 M3 J# h! Y: }8 X/ b' SThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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9 `( Z* A R" DIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”( A8 k: k8 i* a3 ^* e' }
, m9 m6 n+ m/ ^* {8 P8 P9 xMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.6 j7 U o# d! ]& V% ]- |' [
# T" o% `" W& v# p% O# }( }& a# t“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014. s& r d; ~' [' I- U" O" V
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.. Y* F. U/ H, L
5 K5 V9 E6 ?2 F; s2 C, YHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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& Z4 z+ H5 W, C) ^In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.; g+ X O8 W, E/ Q+ d
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, v' ^1 t5 Z; {" [8 UCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns0 p3 ]: ~. Q. c$ ^8 B
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
$ \' O- |- o: A- SThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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6 y, J% q, Q8 d+ qThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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0 x+ P# C t. c# |, aFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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* e/ G3 H/ ?( G. UContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.) f2 \; B: [! R" q
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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4 ]0 I6 D/ j9 V" oMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.2 D: \! a. k* q/ z% O$ t
! A. |- |& ?- q4 k$ s: z- |The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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* W1 N( F7 E M, h* X! f“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.: d( V0 t3 I4 j* P6 V- t2 f
( L' W4 d2 n T, xTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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