 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts$ l2 P9 k* W' L7 m3 a8 [. {+ u
- x0 Q8 A* F5 m6 e& L
Republish Reprint
+ B5 k: K h) tGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET" d: g @" i9 M
More from Gordon Isfeld
6 g; ?( z6 q. d1 a2 { rLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
% I) S* t8 X9 b. d2 S# G7 ZBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
6 y5 ?$ r. K% d2 M7 c4 W Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More" C2 t: z4 a$ d' \: j
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.5 N* \0 Z4 A- ?6 ?8 M
+ I6 [ s3 X* |2 P; ~8 o" UThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.3 A( h! F' s" g" W8 X' e
% z/ U3 p) _, |2 E+ d$ n: AIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
" f% `' X3 P0 _, u0 I3 m
. F5 `$ L5 a0 \6 v! CMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year. E( z9 ?2 W3 {0 x/ R+ N# }
! H! u: \9 l, q$ h“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.) k! i: L! t" l% T
4 ^- x2 n+ a7 o0 U
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.; x$ h4 O7 S5 q5 Z/ a+ M0 G" j
3 z' }( a8 U) l, ~6 Y
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
" A7 v' y& ?- Y
v3 l0 \ ~% T2 z- g' hIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.$ p1 Z5 i/ ~/ e) C
1 }6 {; {* V2 H0 LRelated
: i+ g) I0 C; W, r$ QCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns4 f6 S1 e+ _* h4 @9 A6 j2 o
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
* P' K6 |$ l4 C- s4 @The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
" B( }* D4 ^% N7 F* l2 y7 p' qAdvertisement
" B& V& v* x) [3 C9 Q
* m: ]1 G0 Z( f) P! R% e( b1 s: ^* n2 K1 y8 [$ ^( k! L; i4 q+ Q" i
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.# `' i% |( J% ~9 {" M4 Q. k
* ~% e1 w3 |5 n% s
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
4 i8 ~: H. _# E6 N$ L8 p& z6 Y/ j. q p+ M: F
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
9 n3 Z7 }3 x' T2 J- Z# f' k/ _" U1 B6 U \, k" p0 c9 ~
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.. K ~0 R) b% w- K; R! Y
" Z7 S+ f% `* p1 M p1 h+ r5 CContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
4 K/ z8 ^1 r% e+ b2 W
; r' I4 r# W" C( sThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
, K2 L$ Y& S* h% t! n) b6 F# J
! w; D3 O# P$ t/ z( W/ AMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level./ j7 L$ a$ ~5 p: V. A+ S _
% |0 r: J! Y+ m7 u; B( a4 E: RThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
9 G: ^- b; h8 j+ {
) g6 c u. `6 o |7 I- N1 J“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
; m. u2 {, H2 V* J
4 Q, A% E( k* d* {& nTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
+ T D: V! H( `0 G2 ?# [; E2 e$ E7 \' E. z5 [; C" v& M& A
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
