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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts5 f% O" l+ T9 N/ _& J6 _ t8 j
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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. C% f; o9 |( [/ YLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.3 U6 T4 |. Q5 {; C! ~
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.2 o1 T/ L$ ]; ?* Q, [# F* k$ h
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”7 s+ }4 h5 s! W+ }! J( V: i
7 l" r2 \% e" {Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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9 T" Z% Y0 B u/ d1 i1 G“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.+ {+ h+ Q# j: O f+ [5 ^+ z
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.' D3 o2 k. U5 o! x5 U9 F/ I
V, F* L: Q/ F* uHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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' {8 x! k1 L: \+ XIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.* T' L( y/ Q7 z! G. B$ [, V
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: f8 W: p; X- o2 c! OCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
+ m6 o, V, b' \Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
& @) c. s/ v4 z1 J) LThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over; [8 ^* P. i. O; t$ \
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2 J2 h- ^# A- J" u$ [9 FThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.8 j2 @1 j; C/ G. |% L% O6 @1 V
5 g3 G; V! U' o* t, M# T“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”5 Y/ k6 o2 I o1 R3 L
- Y; [# ]# a! [9 VFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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2 z5 B6 w8 C/ S- H& c5 MCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.. g7 ~$ u+ }6 U
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.; ^- d( C# _# J: a8 S: \2 E8 b8 Q
: I o2 W; @( H% pThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.4 r9 I! E2 l; w! L4 e
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.+ i' ~( b9 E: }& {$ @; C
! O4 A9 t' @# N4 V: ?) e+ OTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.3 h7 d5 a% m+ G, Z& k
( D; ]2 t+ R9 F# K N; h4 W“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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