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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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9 v* G' v( d% R: H8 J, `! RGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
T% D& M5 U+ R& G- q- zBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.. r5 I6 `1 E7 z" s1 @ U6 d- v
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.9 O' G% W; w: ]
4 ?" x) ~4 l8 M* ?5 jThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.& l6 x" ~& Q3 }" G
3 N+ G. ~% z5 [' @& F/ Y1 V6 {: [In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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/ S% s# C" s% F9 CMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.( ~7 M) h Q) l& w; |& l& j: E
. j, H5 j- P* l" `7 i“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.' s' x* m% P! w* u3 L1 l
- W9 N( N0 s7 l& u+ a" R& G" pAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.7 z3 M" Y3 b8 [; v7 i2 ]* Z" u9 ^
' X* e1 |8 \! M& l7 i4 HIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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3 @6 f& C3 | @8 U2 E- o) X' `Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
6 X+ X$ {* C W5 Y0 pThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over7 w1 ?5 \) T1 U- P: r
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.; t1 @8 I l$ }8 a
; r* w1 ~2 Y* B* |( k“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”7 [6 {. g# X9 @" t
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.% P) b6 ^$ Q' |, t1 m9 i3 ~
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.& l& ~* T$ [% s8 r2 D% S6 m: e
" s5 _+ f7 |; b) r9 F" BThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.* ?* Q1 c- K4 [" W+ q9 L0 O; s( H
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level." K* G3 V% j% X2 P7 S
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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. S4 O) g! U: @“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.# }# H0 C f/ M" s$ w
9 c- k" [. D; ~$ ~* d; c+ s9 GTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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% J' _) i4 s$ g6 j0 P( Z“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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