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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts/ p" n5 J) b' D G' {% W: I
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9 x5 x, M8 c$ d8 sGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET* z6 X2 v5 [6 L; A/ {
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.# }5 d6 g3 i2 G8 E
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.) c0 `* ?" {1 T @
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.3 [6 Q5 |" j/ K' j
* [* D$ n: _! l: K# l& k* hIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”/ O4 l8 r3 }0 L2 E& l/ ]# w
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.5 k: N$ f5 m6 M
6 G3 I2 G6 d/ e8 r" q“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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0 ?4 U# s+ {4 y+ f% eAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.' Z1 r- t% D1 }1 P! A# W7 U# O# h: r
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.3 c6 k# Y9 _6 S8 c/ ]2 ^
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% k' D5 P# J$ SCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
% o, V! ~# n" u+ Y% ~5 HCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
s; b( {' {1 e/ p, `The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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1 {0 H, S* A" x O* V5 T: tThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.* f* w d T0 i/ s' u% u+ [
3 c6 k: P/ a+ B5 |“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”% ?. E1 O) Q B2 L+ M# r8 L: C# y
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.: I& y% m; j- D# z' [7 j) {0 K( Z
8 Z3 S, u, f5 ]- J' B% Y: EContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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( H/ S! z( m9 gMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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, h" C& a$ u3 Z+ NThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.+ S& G+ Z( F; \ N* }# ^$ M8 b
, w; v0 G" r* z0 @) }“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.# |: Z. \; g- P5 `" Y& `7 B& Z/ t6 B5 ]+ F
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.2 u( F$ m- d6 u& ^9 z! ~" R/ _
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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