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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts" o. Q4 u! t9 x2 l
" C, c/ S7 v5 ~* g3 bRepublish Reprint0 V! x) @, `* T# \. R. I, F
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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5 `: R3 J, I6 {# j) T6 g- `( eLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
* V- n1 x! F; wBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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' m; d/ m; e5 ]4 ~That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”: L4 V5 \9 p6 D- N' S/ I7 s" K& n, o
* l$ k& o0 c; [ Y: j" WMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.$ I5 ]. ~3 o1 V# [" ~2 A
^) Z; s7 D- U8 t, Y3 J“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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8 p2 J' b7 ?$ s4 QAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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5 z5 T e# Q$ ^( A6 z2 F& YIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
: |0 [ J9 U% ?* A5 U8 E: r& mCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’4 U' ?; j \# ]: f- O/ w
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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7 W$ v! A* i0 j# X9 l4 p“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year./ r% E" C" e7 N% w
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.& p/ G; }% Y) u7 c
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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; W1 _; ?7 J" h$ e8 F8 o; i+ F8 HThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.3 B G4 k7 r3 @
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.2 P F* q/ s: M( L( y7 Q \7 o0 [) R
1 ^4 C7 ~! R g3 IThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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: b1 j& X6 i* h2 U& D“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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' B5 ^/ y9 N! T5 b4 [Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%., r7 l* M, V/ }; s; Y1 ~0 g
2 L! x' L9 x/ ~9 ~ S2 [# Z7 b“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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