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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts4 n' y( n; a2 A) x# _, k
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# u$ A1 e+ G8 _8 ~Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
7 S: j3 z/ S$ vMore from Gordon Isfeld1 J8 m$ e* i' L8 A
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.* S$ `& ^+ Y! G& ^! ^. G
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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3 _: B$ {) z+ s) uOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.$ H* L) A' O. y: s0 i% z$ Q# C' v
' C3 [: D4 t8 o- c3 E* LThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”- G( N& J# D( x: ?' t0 p6 \' ~
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.# u9 W! u' C0 R. l; @! J# h& G
7 F: \8 y( i _% t+ v m. H“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.7 U- L# _" i- u, w6 L3 u, F3 Q
7 A3 u) ]4 U+ E3 U3 T6 V# zAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.$ ?5 A- B8 n# D d+ l. v
2 J4 F8 L: `4 P5 Y4 Q' v ^- nHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.3 G! ]) e1 p% x# h4 ]
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.; k# a& S# \, {0 } O. F- S
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The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over/ l, o9 o. M6 K& c
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# @2 E$ Q. ?# ~! |The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.: b& e& [$ q' {) k- U! {- k
2 z" O' r1 ?; u, {* ]“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”( V' m% e# u1 ~2 j
7 j1 }9 @1 X7 Q# R8 DFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.# x3 j |9 s0 v( o8 K5 k
+ W6 ]9 a$ I/ v% iCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.+ M/ G; O( [% [- G% P6 p
: G, u7 o- j! qContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.8 e! H: s( ?% ]) R8 T. k
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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' L+ `/ S u/ t% m ~! O; |2 y. fMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.) f" s% s* c E Q7 j
2 h0 m" j- _! Q3 l0 yThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.+ [ M( M% ]& c! ~" x
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.3 H: ^" h# K W* c5 A5 |
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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