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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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. x2 Z: M; d4 l$ X* S; mLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
* [- o8 M. ^5 H4 n m! M9 J7 j- JBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants./ B w V# C! R4 l7 L* R- z' C4 E
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! R" O: t; `9 k; ~' [8 p! `OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.7 o/ E; t" q- h& `$ W5 E5 W+ N
# j7 U( C; h$ e) `. t5 WThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.9 C3 P% {! i+ Q
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”+ v; M' M% a. L' L l
+ j) s4 ^. o% D: h- oMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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% f4 s6 m o! N0 `“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.; a1 t5 `+ `% b" C. p, I
# A A9 ]9 |1 z- H8 cAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn., B9 g% h: F4 V
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.2 w7 r, I+ P W4 N
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns" ~0 k1 S c3 c9 K& b
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’1 q3 M+ I8 c4 @. b$ C
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over/ J1 p) z2 S# _9 Y3 [1 \
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”$ s% K z6 i, L7 i
( v. D7 {$ d3 p, E4 F& }& GFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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" r4 M$ V) W/ z: mCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.2 @+ P8 S" m/ Y$ m
" b) t5 x1 l' y9 ]0 T' Z, PContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.- v# M: x+ ^% t, O/ X: O0 E# J
% s- o; P. o% h" }3 n RMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.6 H! M2 |) l: G8 X
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.1 h( [4 }, ?4 E; ]' B
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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- q% p- P. u1 a3 i' q+ [+ n, wTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.& K( c- w6 S% a9 N
$ E" {0 N7 a& \: X/ A$ ~“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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