 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
" p4 w; D; p1 M+ @, J" ?9 ~
0 J6 E D' h$ S) |- S: J0 ORepublish Reprint4 O; N+ ~' i4 a3 R: j3 K
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
5 U: o) N; i2 e* ]* {, ^More from Gordon Isfeld
" W4 ^: l+ I! n$ Q% ^0 s! {* F& CLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
5 c2 ^7 E9 {+ X1 P& _BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.* n9 ~" C, d1 t4 R* a- g- Q+ J
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More, ?( L. H1 e, Z
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.8 E( i0 }/ r$ U1 k( K6 L
7 L" E* X2 n, b, d( U1 r9 E1 l
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.; O/ C0 n0 z: X5 K) k8 R- v4 a2 J
; g+ B' E7 e5 `; q! Z0 ^8 }* N
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”. d8 R9 i2 _7 j) p8 k" H
% I& Q2 K3 W" e: |( JMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.! ?/ g9 _/ r y! I! B
& A" B- e: r0 O) D% V" D/ t
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
( x F% H, L- s& w: M, l" ^4 w- s" _# B& }/ a+ L3 V# D
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.( x3 d) R$ K4 n
- l4 Z c7 F/ m3 y
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.0 R/ f1 M5 t9 h, e( R
$ V& j+ Z# P i2 U: I, Y" _# d' nIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.* J* T/ ?8 @3 B" [ s3 C/ I+ C
# v7 G- B7 b$ f8 h/ `4 cRelated I6 x0 B! ?4 e1 C) X( m- a
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
1 a3 w4 P( g# b/ t& E4 P4 @Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’( R0 f& D; B- a4 g: T" O+ b$ r( M' ]! b
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over- s7 `/ _1 p# x- A9 c& q+ ^
Advertisement. O0 K+ [4 \) S3 T$ Q2 ~
0 L1 g; V( Y# ?8 Z: s3 v+ W
) u; u4 u+ P s1 y3 w6 FThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
* t+ g* n# Y4 e' K& ^: J9 A# j! _$ Z& A$ ?' P0 V8 g
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”5 h1 h' X# n& D* ]5 T
; Z" \% M5 \ v1 j0 f8 gFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.' x. r0 g; O* `+ W. ?0 b
9 B2 F# \+ q; p7 W/ A+ p9 y
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.1 n7 l! i6 N) W6 v
& Z7 U5 u! d% J
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
) j2 M, u$ m/ a( N# D* H+ L; } N3 |% J9 X' D* U
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.3 ] p8 u* A! w: n3 O. b
4 D% \& O$ ]1 p2 D/ X n# a
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
! f; i2 S5 x8 B
5 J# N3 O. o5 f. @: \The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
4 {6 e Y* {8 b; r# [' E$ ]4 ^* z) k: i1 S* F1 {1 B
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
. i9 N4 e3 u2 D; O9 Q5 a& J
9 v& n# C$ c$ PTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.2 p) v# b% [ w" w, F6 B- P& ^
$ N I# M x$ r' n M, X
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
