 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
, B2 r" }; h. H3 S3 l J1 z; r& Q6 M5 G" h: f5 L
Republish Reprint
) K' L& n1 K% S. E- m" ]Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
; W# a" H6 R0 [( Q/ Z% OMore from Gordon Isfeld
$ ]8 m8 D7 A5 S6 SLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.( f# |" y# S7 J
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
! p6 O1 u/ `! l" B1 F* X: \ Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More8 \: A- r6 W, G5 [5 |6 S
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario., Q! y L" I. V, O" l4 K
) {* Q1 Z% j4 a4 X* KThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
- s/ J8 U' e4 [- x8 ^+ r. O2 o. q& V$ M8 C1 L$ k
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”( n- r$ b+ ~ e, n
2 b3 r1 w+ F; p1 J; s( CMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year./ @! m7 L9 r, Y% N
( _ V% K: G7 \“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
1 m# ?+ t {" z9 k! J% }# R' Z" S' o! i0 R6 S9 n+ G
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.1 |0 t7 `( ?) ~9 Q& Z$ C7 G
8 a+ \: N" o8 @6 {However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%./ S3 b5 I- x; i7 ~
- D7 u+ A+ F7 Y6 n1 QIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
, {5 S. A# ~( k, r3 _' m2 B; j. K- O
Related
5 e1 |' ^1 x' u5 F. tCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns9 @5 M: f* \6 f0 e8 B0 j. ?
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’. m& O& y& Z' i l/ s) e. V, i2 H
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over8 `2 B) {+ h) s
Advertisement5 k9 d; T! I8 ?9 p
1 q$ {, b, Y) n, {5 M" @
) Z, v1 ]+ f( h- D* ^9 ?The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
$ G+ M; i+ u- c/ A' ~7 V# G! Q9 e7 Q/ I: S
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”2 w3 _; q' n, F E0 C
6 A N! |, I' ]6 jFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
E" G3 v: E5 H4 A5 c# C7 |& U; y% \' Y( s2 E
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.( D7 N7 {( }- f
; \6 q0 C3 C# D" z
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
& A6 E2 o3 K; W z8 ?8 X6 i0 w* R9 O! t& E$ x
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.& [" e7 z5 f/ C! c5 t
% z1 R: j3 c( d& }" i! ]# \
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
3 r c; C5 m8 i/ Q0 T3 X/ |- @" t+ m) s! m( q t
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
" ~1 D1 \+ v6 N; m1 z1 R; u$ A" E o0 {6 g) o4 a8 C9 m6 n; @
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.! V1 |9 \5 q3 {
6 Y9 Y( M- ?% R6 [Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.$ D/ l( q$ \4 y8 C
2 y5 _/ }# W; U1 P“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
