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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts3 v, j4 g6 w, w0 b/ ^
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& b# S" a& C9 n- W2 T, kGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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0 R! u+ z6 e/ s7 eLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
. m' Q, j6 T8 O, j0 k# g2 M; K5 sBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.' k0 N% e" d9 o# R T) g
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& h: ~8 z6 _8 t' R: P5 ~OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario., N: A3 V- l) a5 a( d
# ~ I; B& S; _2 T( l8 @That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.+ ]/ z# o" t y# ?' D+ O
7 B! f& ]5 a) g0 a2 `In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”, @9 g: }% @) D* w! p- ~
: r% p( ], ?( y9 O8 eMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.# V3 N4 S4 s0 ^- a6 e0 ?
3 q. Y3 Z! s# d0 G7 w# D- B: o“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.& e W" N- L3 ^; e* Q# T9 S, i0 X
2 J, j) r( J A: S( R, [0 N5 { iHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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7 p. W! U+ z6 i0 N0 _In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.2 ?1 x1 r* x. v* ?' p: S) W
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
8 p, k) m& L. N. P% zCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
% Y4 x+ G+ `( x, O4 F' ~The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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7 s* r: ~& J2 x1 b. m" u( wThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.5 r! U$ Q$ S' t
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”* t1 r! m; |' y, a1 @' t
8 T6 x; P8 Y# {7 b& EFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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' K" m8 S M) m& y x- tContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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* O$ c: L- U. L# U6 o5 n! l$ KMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.8 l3 t% V0 i2 u7 T( F3 V) A
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.9 Z& b" |" U" b. v8 b6 e
0 f' {( d# I0 E \“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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