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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts& R- ]8 U8 j9 y. _3 x
$ {# G3 {1 E- E; d% E+ QRepublish Reprint4 ]7 R5 J9 Y' O1 G ?
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
# f9 m/ t- a. M! E3 |BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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# e0 |0 Z x1 p* t$ l, D/ yOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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6 N1 A4 ^0 e1 c2 F* z' P6 PThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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3 O# p, w4 _8 tIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.7 m' s, B6 e. l0 ^8 U. [/ l, s
* i; w) L3 C9 v5 N& RAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.+ R; {) k) z# f% J: }, V# E
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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2 Y% U/ v; W5 ]9 i. b0 k* J i( kIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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( h% X+ E. B* a. N8 Z6 G3 q& u% GCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns8 _& g M7 w. P9 r2 j& k3 C
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’/ `! P q" `: {- ~( b) c
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over3 G. V8 z% T9 N+ k9 p
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend./ e$ g% l8 y5 N- P- }) m p) t- `8 M
8 v/ b7 G" K& s0 |! d; A“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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8 M' c$ \ x" P8 ~/ }, E6 \For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.9 z+ i1 l* ^0 d# f
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.+ C+ s$ C8 e* g# w3 O* p
; |1 D, D0 d3 X* A8 V* VContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.: D6 G6 X' N9 Z
1 K' t5 V; x8 ^7 Y6 `0 mThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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& l. T( _9 z( O9 k" ~Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.% K- M( F2 c% A1 B3 d* s2 `
5 g2 e7 V+ @6 G; k! I1 RThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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2 x) T7 z$ f7 R; _7 W2 @% g+ p2 \“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.* b8 W" I$ n0 L/ [ m# Z& r& i' H3 M
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.* u( d0 L+ S5 P: D1 _
5 d; W9 a7 R6 \1 E. Y$ H+ Z“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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