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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts4 b, G" o/ b+ ^: y2 {0 k. D5 |
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+ `9 x8 x4 `3 @9 `Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET7 S/ b3 w! @9 l5 e7 {% R
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.8 ^8 E3 L+ {/ i: Y: q
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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7 {5 G3 p+ C: V N' oThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.; c3 J- K5 r- L5 Q" R, y* t6 O: i% u
9 A3 }7 i8 e) aIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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) H/ `" w7 U6 l% X7 u" i j c% x“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.: e' A3 p: k- }6 L
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns7 [/ G! R0 R/ l2 D/ b
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’5 | r6 M& L6 g6 g$ P" [( k+ J
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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8 e4 R+ j/ ]/ R1 U“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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* Y+ [6 W) E9 C! x4 I9 m9 ?, IFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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* n% E; N! {1 p# ~! i* j kContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.9 X k/ z; K: l: z1 F
1 @0 I. d" r+ [The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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, Y% M' d6 P4 ]3 e, F( c9 mMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.$ F- o+ G+ u- B5 r( ^# U
! l; f8 W" ]: [5 r3 L. YTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.+ P* w7 ^+ B- q7 l1 q" }
+ w0 C5 [% S5 p4 T“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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