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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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$ z' {6 G( S! ?) H. Z% J1 c+ RLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
; j" Z9 q% a5 X* q v' f5 KBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.6 m& [1 A* Z6 m, C
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.! W' I/ D* L L" w0 j0 ]2 Z
( P, p. n2 M i# D$ W8 kThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.' g1 ^1 {3 }: u+ V3 B# U
1 H+ C% p5 }/ }1 P5 e. VIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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# k) \. B. u$ n: Z, lMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year." M$ d* Q4 P, E, m# V% y, z7 w
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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+ l1 C) |& a: a5 z# r' C+ ]As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.( R" y5 T# }7 W+ ~4 `
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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( {9 i+ U; |$ sRelated
$ J( z6 W% t r vCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
) l& f8 l6 t; D+ \/ BCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’. l5 f7 u& \4 }0 F
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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" r) @& {3 T; [The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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( \7 V; ?$ q& ^“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”+ G9 X- Y( T' \- p2 Y6 [: P: w
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.' _* W, b" J3 b# R1 R
) J- R* i" u" ^, ]' q) bThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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8 C5 O" ?: B; P# u3 DMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.' O" \; `7 J6 Q! h4 v A
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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5 A- |. H6 t }& } [% r! MTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.. j1 u* ~6 q, ?$ Y- r& W4 o
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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