 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
; r2 r, }2 H+ c
# M, ]8 ?4 f H8 S7 FRepublish Reprint
) N# d9 v5 q6 B$ X ^Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
- \, Y$ ~ A8 `9 [: J' f9 TMore from Gordon Isfeld
9 |$ z% O, p* U( C* h. Y4 ALast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
5 ^, M2 J2 J2 b6 v: G& ~BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
2 X7 s# i, u) g# ?% E, g Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
1 t; }: t9 C0 ]% x M" | [OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
9 |/ ]; H9 j" T& `7 [/ L- S" I# [7 f1 b8 n7 j% f6 }+ z
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.0 b2 m" R: i; Z6 ^+ }$ b4 |. A' C+ j
! o# Z0 C s( ^; PIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
* ^# L# Z# g! X( x1 G/ H3 k( Z+ ?: O) S' i
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
+ a, x1 b! n8 `1 v9 a" R p4 m( C" U! I( {- w$ _6 r/ ]3 {
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
7 M4 f% u, V( ~; c
) l* }+ x9 f/ I! l4 ?As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
" ^* d g* Z: v* V: }
% i7 `8 T4 u' V7 R# \! Z' EHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
. I3 \# L4 a& V7 W8 A/ f! y1 h' ]9 g6 h3 f1 V, @+ E* ~; S
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
) Q( C. e8 R% L8 ~2 U- Y
$ ?; M4 X& S y5 D8 Q( RRelated
: I& B: j0 b% n5 X4 ACanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
0 T6 e: ?1 O# q, m4 pCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
! d( k1 q: t( U9 \; @! S$ uThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
( s2 c4 } M( F( q. FAdvertisement& _" e0 |2 m0 G
7 G7 e& S* A( {" C b/ W" F
* d0 C' T# O+ F* Y1 LThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.6 d4 u: ^* D9 v( h
6 s6 q& U" J6 \; |0 R5 Z7 Q# W* S“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”% I/ k( G; }) x! o% h- i. m" {7 C
% T7 \- U/ s: O3 @For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.0 b7 j/ K- h( @- |* {1 V; {+ p
8 D: h% F( u2 K/ ]8 z3 Z
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.( c3 v6 k8 L7 `$ i; p3 _7 I3 ^1 y
+ W3 G* H8 h6 g6 b& b9 p! n! f9 G: @Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.5 v" N1 p3 ?. y) Z/ j5 G
5 Z: q) D! P& `% r5 b/ _
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.7 [" a( i7 R8 B& ]: m, H: m3 H
7 y) F1 T% X* `3 H8 EMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.3 D L A9 J0 d
1 e' S) K* w% t# U, l
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.$ f& L6 y5 ?; H1 E5 T8 I5 q5 \
. r" B- v2 H. m2 ?( e
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
( p% v" N" c( L5 O! o
1 o5 ~, e, f- `* t+ R; D8 Y& tTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
1 g, N7 n {) W, ^" s* }) C$ k) X3 }! k+ x
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
