 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
+ z: z/ N6 L, t& M4 X8 x, h6 Y/ W! |8 d9 o9 n/ D- ^( B
Republish Reprint8 Q! u# E3 J# j4 O1 L5 C5 b3 \- q
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
- J) F4 \3 k- p! v& a, cMore from Gordon Isfeld
2 X, k3 C% R) D! }) C; F5 u- o& DLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.( O5 k4 ]$ v0 K" S6 y' l1 {
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
8 b Y, k3 d9 [8 j Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More4 k! J, G2 X- W s8 ~$ r; k0 j: N; ?
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.6 n- w9 S* L1 g! R& f" Q
0 P6 W# a! U% `5 t% S( SThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.! M5 i0 l! D. c
8 }" l( t# c! u8 TIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
& q& Z; Z* b- h# S$ H, s/ `
% t, J' u$ j; i! BMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year., Q# I" ~8 A) S6 C# n3 T
- d) U! X4 m7 g j! n
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
1 [$ G8 n0 Y1 L( W- t1 _/ H
! e- @+ _& m& q: ?3 c1 Y/ qAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
1 p8 T; o' u. ] L; F3 M
% ?2 L9 E6 R/ R0 CHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.) k0 b- ~. ^! x2 ^( S/ y% a
2 G0 c* d) r1 M* s2 o. G# N
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar. R# h6 n* f5 T4 l+ [7 k
" _3 J, A, x& eRelated' b( a6 L5 f' ~/ p% p J
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns' a% X( [; I" r2 _7 J
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
2 b! g1 w+ a u P/ i- jThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
% E" c" _. @! {& j! ^1 pAdvertisement
! x. Q6 O$ u1 i, ]$ U- k
; x; x3 h9 {6 W' H; u: H% K( b: M2 M4 t5 p1 {4 D( K8 H) l
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
[5 W$ u* j9 u/ {3 k
" b8 b" {* G2 a* Q“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”( D- k: j( ?- z+ e$ k& z
+ \; z! r+ p9 o9 w5 w5 K
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
& g) ^6 `6 c" a5 m
, D* ?, {; E. C C0 [CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
% _( W0 y3 [1 g! K' y/ |% A# u- l" k
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
, {2 J {, P" G- I% X
" n$ c1 b: X, T6 a7 a0 Y% \The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.$ T# g$ R/ W9 ~* s
* O* o' _2 v c4 E, o1 R
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.2 U. h( Z3 e; [/ R: l+ D9 `5 b
4 u; C% s0 Q, m% ~The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.) K% a* Y1 Q$ |! P5 q
3 T6 f% b. N' z. w! |) ?% S“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
* d8 _2 d, [2 {5 W* J
! m# K: a6 T( M+ hTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
! G2 Q. d& k9 u* f" o( j/ H8 X( w# K+ A# b$ C
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
