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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts4 _8 \- b4 `* P# B! Z* q
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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, r* B1 I, \' y- M% R$ {Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! u) v% c9 z$ d t" { E8 J
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.2 ?8 J) ~1 R: D# k4 A7 I
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province., p1 q5 \8 H1 h! y$ e
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”( [, X2 j" i+ R3 ~- o
9 F, X) J3 o* c# W: f8 [Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.' X+ V/ J! a- B
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.8 t" J' L; [; _" \' u y" a
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.; H/ E q6 T( }
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& T' S, t; _% k9 e5 p% @7 u$ {5 [Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
* o/ v* f' c3 F! p1 P1 G2 G! oCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’6 l& r' Y. O- Z1 z) ], k4 {, N
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over7 T9 L7 i8 o% A
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.% y. S" Y4 Z- V2 J9 R, f; G8 G& B
' w/ R% o+ t' C" E. Z$ s“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”! f. O5 ]* T2 f
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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8 [% {9 n; u4 OContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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# u" W1 n' ?# M/ L$ r0 bThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.' O( N0 F, |4 l1 Z
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.2 u; _* |8 \% g& g# d$ T* w
" H' K2 n- w, {3 Y$ C NThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.2 G1 Q( V* L* H6 J
" t" x/ P! l6 q; h7 a! a4 e“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.. X" C: e2 H$ r8 X
% _4 b8 S/ o9 Z% I' Y* P T4 tTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.9 `9 t" \# o3 E$ ~0 \7 [- u- `0 F
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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