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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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% M. _5 Y) H+ j* k* P6 y! S/ OLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
; K/ m* m1 Z! F# D# n( `BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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' \; t" F/ P# ~$ w4 @OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.( J" e- x+ ~" z2 g3 k
% N. B8 |- n/ Y$ aThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”& a" T, {4 J/ n0 O
8 r" q4 o; l5 E: K& @1 j. zMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.5 V0 ]. I: D: [
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.8 e8 y' @( p' E0 E, }
' ~ m0 V& U4 K, cHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.$ z( A# X2 A: \2 ?+ Z. W
# C0 d- P- B* t) j: w0 U! ~, hIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.3 P+ i- Y! X- Z6 M. I' `% l7 X5 J" N
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6 u: h& E% {: @% K) _0 |2 R# ^, cThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over, H7 G a8 X' {. R5 g$ k
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”5 R# u9 }( W' C2 ~
" e8 F4 N, Z0 c1 G {7 j) T/ A0 YFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.5 i* t) x5 E6 k( U( H! E4 N- Y' ~9 e! G
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.( ?/ c- d) z+ L+ J- N: A8 t
& d; k1 l. C3 IThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.5 B5 f7 u9 _9 I
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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& J) Z1 L" x- v7 N# ?The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.- y4 r3 e X! q6 N
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.% v+ j }' ]% O
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.% ^( k) s$ V2 W2 G/ j/ [
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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