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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts2 p* ~6 C+ D$ H; ?* e" D" f
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, w' s+ ?: z) V" y# i4 S! CGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET+ e% A3 s. c$ m* q/ G
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.8 b$ k% B3 M. h- ~
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.: g$ I3 H: ]5 g, W
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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7 V) u1 o2 ^$ m8 b/ J9 k: F$ XThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.2 Z" V# P* v }9 U
3 E+ [7 R6 J. }" T6 F# n1 FIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”1 r Y c( U! X* ~& r! O
/ A2 `6 d+ h. {- @9 t$ DMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.7 O& r7 d. |8 V0 W
# p$ k% i2 z+ m, Y/ H: a“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.; x9 A% n# W- r* _
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.1 H: y" C# q# n0 a9 k! |; e" ?) H; F
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%. r. u% [* O; I- E* m0 w3 O+ D( N
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.) R" E$ r, A7 l+ h) x$ P0 h1 Q
: N0 M; l j; O' eRelated9 ]( s& Y$ T9 Y6 W
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
8 `* p% f, V( q8 m! R/ H1 UCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’$ a4 J, G" N9 y
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over: |5 V _: |/ V2 G5 _9 Q( [! e
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”* g6 ^: D( L! c& H8 [ G
" V, M" T& w8 _1 X$ QFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.+ W: S! T7 [8 |* @. p4 I
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year., h2 y) M6 T" ]" F# I9 L
% E; I6 ?5 P4 n; f$ F* oContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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% ~2 H: {, V: X8 c% X% c4 pThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.9 N* {: b/ Y; F X
+ O) d6 n- b; @- x q6 j7 x3 x. {! VMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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8 Y$ s- z: }# Q- dThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.4 N& [# \3 v9 `3 @( v) y/ p
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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