 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts) t: D" A m1 ~- F; H
2 Y5 P. E, u* m" c: _1 o3 P! URepublish Reprint1 e7 W5 ^# c: F7 K. t. V' h
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
, C, z+ E4 _$ |1 }More from Gordon Isfeld
+ h* x1 |, j+ B% B* W3 K& s k9 OLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
+ z0 I/ W- @ jBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.# W+ l. G: } Z% }0 d
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
& f+ \) S) n7 p' w$ ?9 K0 QOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.1 V0 U& P3 j; V8 w+ n+ r4 p, x" o
9 I, Y$ T3 m, R/ \8 g% ~0 lThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
. j0 X3 I: T3 t5 t2 _5 U" r2 D4 q6 L t1 V& e# V8 J0 h
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”6 j2 ^! q. H2 M: z& F
& j5 D) W a+ c. F9 w
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
, X* f; ]/ i, X" O
; q, B7 E! {4 k5 K9 I' h“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014. f# c+ P+ l+ f2 D# K+ a
+ R/ T T7 }7 l# @( a0 ^As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
8 `# O8 @4 n6 }" }$ L8 z7 N r- p3 [2 \: z/ N% T
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
9 M" j1 t: [" G: B; w: d+ z; i1 o' C; A7 H$ L
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.( ]& z3 R5 I' h$ J4 @
' \" t! N0 P3 O9 H4 n, ^) m2 XRelated; I& w1 U/ d# X( K+ a- ?( A, e# u! m8 _
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
# a7 G u/ ]" ?8 B4 H+ r4 jCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’# r4 w4 m0 f! P" ]) q b
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
+ M2 a- m( ~( ` dAdvertisement) ~' v2 O% w* `( M9 ^% q( [
+ F! Y6 [) T! c% ?2 K
1 F8 i L0 V. L# A; O
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.! r' w1 g6 m* G: z# y9 v
) l, _+ Y0 A5 N: n$ Z
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”7 c! y/ I. W2 G e1 W2 G
0 D9 v% @$ \' n. c: \; k5 WFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.3 D6 x& l @8 |( L( M. j, h$ E4 }+ c
. g; f( M6 Y3 H/ I
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.7 a/ `2 x$ k( w5 K
1 _: k; ]6 D6 b* ?
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.5 o) n% C6 P4 H# B' A& [& C
, \/ K0 O8 p& o1 N+ l! ]3 o4 aThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
7 u% o( o- E3 m( Q! e
" z; Y- S7 d7 S& h" h! s6 i$ n8 dMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
9 n3 H! t4 s1 c6 E) L; L- j8 W. D0 m4 t$ ^
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday." R* k6 a& y9 @9 v- O' n9 g
0 e2 B" g0 @: a% D
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
6 G; t9 e. g7 U; ~3 w. J5 o& n
( C& k/ u5 l7 P' fTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.7 [$ [2 Z- Y0 c% p) \
, q6 I# h( G9 V3 `3 y( Q“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
