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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts1 @( Q9 W' j$ G
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0 _; g1 T, G" U5 n9 CGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
# A0 H& u: ~2 v1 gMore from Gordon Isfeld4 |3 l" [) K$ R& v H4 n) A
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.) Z" X" ]7 M5 Q# M4 r) g
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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; z1 d7 n% v+ a' T# \& JOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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" H. k7 X9 A, l$ e4 UThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.) |; K7 K1 w; i6 J0 f- b2 e
! f8 w1 z! H# e# B7 j- e1 a# SIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”/ V2 Q2 @7 { W! @2 n+ F
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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7 ]0 K8 t8 N4 p3 \6 W# g“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.; ]+ \$ h$ _! w9 ?' F* V
/ `' q- c1 L2 C% T- ~7 \As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.1 P9 z# w$ L/ J
! a+ _ p) J: R+ E6 Z( MHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.; z1 i' x' a1 k6 _) I2 T
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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1 Y/ f/ e: P) }5 Q& M+ XRelated
/ {9 P. Z& u* k# e& VCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
; P+ E) u9 X0 I, ?! P$ vCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’' P/ J7 u' \& Q% X
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over% L7 x& U; x, O1 @) ?( p0 n
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1 R" e- W" g+ [! |, T6 p: uThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend./ ?( E: E0 Z! l/ b# @
" a( J, X' I4 Q j0 d- b“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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" v' e1 K. c1 `. G( CFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.: e" u) o7 s2 @4 @4 n5 Q
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.$ H4 A7 O/ E2 C4 c
' R" n- t; u( f8 OContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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% J! `5 E+ t6 u/ T9 I% r6 j; QThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.! L& E. i( h% I& K& G' S3 ]( i
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.$ _: e% g& b8 }
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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2 V" T O& }! m: u) t“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.3 f3 w# n, l% O5 l" e# S3 _
( v& w; e N5 u, S5 N' a; dTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.* }4 w5 z% R( `3 ~
& U2 f. R; Q+ V- b$ Z“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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