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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts6 W- `0 ^8 i+ i/ D. Q
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% s- v4 |/ P5 y7 {8 J3 DGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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( u R2 R! c" R! y. L5 S; VLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
; N1 u. q( {5 m/ PBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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4 K* _$ d& z, T! A! L1 Y* pThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”! l0 }3 K' n! ]; i' h; i
) ^$ P: @' F5 _% |7 ~Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.& X+ p' [3 w! K; m* ]
/ h7 ^' G0 j# \! C( \- K: bAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn./ W, D: |% |( ~$ f; a5 V) |
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar. r( I; P/ P3 e' B3 x h
; B; w3 O5 A7 p1 _8 Z3 ]Related
* M+ f0 M, |- k+ Q i9 O* MCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
. Z# w% [2 @' b! B! JCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
, \+ k7 K/ b/ ~! i% O+ ]" g N2 N) gThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over% y& m( Q: h- w7 x; V0 X
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" `+ u$ [: V" P! rThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend., `1 i5 r5 v' S" ~& D
+ [9 n" o7 w6 l; a$ q“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”5 m; E: a8 n. g7 n. I
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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5 d) h) [( K2 c- L) _# d/ ^7 ]CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.1 C* d q1 I. w0 R9 H) F, h
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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* v& I g% j2 ?- U* p+ c$ DThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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; Y& P6 q, A% o5 w% f% _Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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' J+ I. M) w3 F' [The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.2 o/ |: x' N7 S' h! x: O
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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8 E6 l k$ {- A o4 E M& mTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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2 ]+ e2 \) x9 h1 f/ m7 R" Z“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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