 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts e; y! t8 L; i
' T* x1 D, Y- `( N q- X9 Q3 a+ lRepublish Reprint
* L5 U/ [ a K+ o1 s0 }) t( d, ~Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
* `% Y- y" u6 ^! a% Z, T" W, z. aMore from Gordon Isfeld9 d2 {# _1 }& t
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.) L! z" @) H/ c0 `- U
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.5 e, z# B6 I1 a9 [2 k) i0 }
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
- a4 U3 G; L, A1 {; M- {: bOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.- ~3 T& S; C, g! [+ k1 D5 U O* R
2 i/ j2 }2 z* D
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.) m- Q& O& j/ y6 b/ V" B& u$ H3 o& d
1 m2 i( K: F3 @ L% |. u: }In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”0 p; G( m8 E4 H" X. Z
1 q' Z+ N, @. W* k. O2 AMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
" z+ s) J7 z; \; m* N' n' ^. F; |
' i r; s: ?& C, g) V“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.! o* X* p" D6 j8 Z
; [# G/ P+ m) U0 ]& z1 [5 e+ U
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.+ [& f3 c l0 N4 u$ _, G( {( }
, ~+ n* h+ d- T( n" L: N$ A$ {
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
) H! V) Q. F, u% H8 v' Y
3 r1 s: L9 R# K7 A3 g9 ~$ ^6 GIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
# S5 r6 V' b8 I2 f
" f f6 n" t( B4 @; w, qRelated
: u) \. ~) \- o( H" ^Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
1 p3 H- Q" C8 u+ O0 T! v3 QCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
- t' I: s9 F# F* _! u/ AThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over u* g+ c" H2 ]5 [+ N/ w
Advertisement
( J. a8 ]1 S' e% u
) S& ~# i) u6 j9 a7 q& S1 j: `3 K' u+ S$ I, f0 T
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
5 |+ |1 k7 i0 h8 a' G3 t' c. ^' g( w4 [
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”0 J% s1 p. \ f
' H) R- n% J; V5 t1 Z6 Z5 f1 w0 H1 SFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.8 g( Q T: e4 c% o; x' K: R
3 r Q) A7 [! E: c2 U) bCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.' R: O) r% C7 u
) o2 u+ l3 X$ y1 r6 M/ ]2 j! X1 u2 o! ]Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
& D! L9 d8 c5 N$ |; L' s
8 @- o, m' [$ z# f6 N6 JThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions." l8 E+ V+ i3 T# M/ X% e+ N
; ?; [- ]7 |6 y `/ O! v: U7 NMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
$ m8 Y* q: C/ E# ~6 c: s$ V. I" G) D" l* Q4 u
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
" z( B; J- c7 h
4 q3 }; C# v2 P" O* A“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.4 x& [! Z) z/ d% q
- s) |7 H8 N( A% Q: s3 s" C# H H" ?Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
) s* x9 q' c) x5 D) u: b! _5 O3 [5 X: G8 U& t$ `
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
