2015年Alberta经济会不会衰退？

clutch

卓越地毯清洗 发表于 2015-1-30 10:58
  d' T5 s* Y! B/ G7 r4 uSyncrude forecasts operating costs at C$45.69 ($38.07) per barrel in 2015
30-40美元是operating co ...

# c0 V2 M8 P9 f: k3 D& z( ~你还没考虑wcs和wti的差价呢

wind2008

貌似很弱智的调查

k0kv96

会受到影响吧

K歌

太好了等着抄底，入货。

goodlifee

不会。衰退就是负增长

hlj007

Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts

; A  B1 q7 w- k& }9 ]Republish Reprint
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.

$ q/ p* C* ?+ c( yThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”

0 U8 X6 W% ~$ b% d9 A, qMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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0 V- M& S4 E8 v/ g8 w) c/ m“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.

! W2 G8 t/ H( v' S7 U$ e! ~As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.

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, J: l; T& x; ?4 s. `The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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& b5 y3 ~1 V" ]The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.

- j1 }8 c% F8 J2 p: |' C. Z“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.

CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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) \' s2 W: s4 j$ b2 lContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for  this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.

The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.

The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.

: B% l) l* x7 G4 x0 M: ^9 J“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.

' d% R2 r. v0 R+ p8 T/ TTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.

( m; E7 e& b8 a# Z* ~1 S1 p3 }“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

lijiayuanzhi

好弱智的问题。Alberta现在已经在衰退中。只是不知道持续多长时间。

wind2008

怎么总是出这样弱智的问题

晕S了

zjmyhome

这种经济学家简直是混蛋说法，说AB拖累加拿大经济？也有脸说。不过是以前都是由AB这个挣钱最多的儿子养着整个加拿大这个大家庭，现在这个儿子遇到困难做不了那么多贡献了，不能养活整个大家庭了，就说他拖累，要不要脸啊还

太上忘忧

K歌 发表于 2015-2-10 16:57
太好了等着抄底，入货。

中石油吗？

pingp9909

石油市场供过于求，，，

cdt

肯定会！