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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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& j; E" d( |' z6 ~9 NBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.! X( c. }/ d1 i$ s; x0 Q) A; q
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.
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5 i+ B* ]+ c+ F+ T! ~BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." : {9 d+ z2 B; J+ V7 \& j6 m
( C! ~, Q) Y" RHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."/ U E2 O: y+ }; w
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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# Y, e; Z2 W; L. d. B0 t& LBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. . k; ?1 F* f# f
u( f; T0 ?/ G* T& D, PYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.8 Q2 `! j3 _ c. }
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g. G1 D( D" E+ V, Q( c4 s0 ]www.happymortgages.com |
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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