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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?' D$ U3 U( K/ n: t' u9 J1 o# @) u
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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) _. T7 R* k: G, y. jSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.4 d Q# u4 q( A; e9 V/ E8 k7 Z
0 t7 v3 X m8 t) V' ]7 }1 {BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." . K) e9 t# W$ ^' M. K$ @
g, r# _! Z% c: ^1 q/ ~He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."; _# f2 ^# _6 ~
+ [5 P1 l% |, ]* a l& g. ZThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.8 w- `# M3 ^& p7 D) x% i
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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8 A7 t" y# D$ wBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. + B+ M: S# ?! j! m% g3 _% | G5 ~
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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