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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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, T) D' [& `' \Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%., C; R" D+ m5 V! g$ g8 M
' d4 R; ^+ S! R) m, @Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged. B. b0 Y. x! k3 L7 t6 [
6 C& A% z( S$ C5 qBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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- R3 h+ L- K: D" MHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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$ h) y0 ?3 B: ^) }5 X8 |: v* PThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.5 n; ~6 f {7 W5 }8 W {
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates./ \' G; v: G* A5 |! D3 U" D
2 L N9 h8 z+ ~0 O3 `4 _But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly.
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& e! S7 [/ z# u2 _You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.
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7 [& ?/ q: ~# T, h: }- _www.happymortgages.com |
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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