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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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$ v; r+ h1 m4 ?! ]2 i/ F+ I. ABanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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, i+ v M) @) w( E, bSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.- ~1 w7 G5 ?' W. T e6 p9 L
1 V/ g# V3 e5 m- ?8 z$ i* dBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."8 R$ Y, x/ y3 U, m6 f9 j) n$ [/ ]
8 A0 J" B8 @. G8 ^4 pThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says. u+ Q% ~2 R. Z: z" r3 `' f
1 N( b, t: }5 r2 r1 k& nIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.3 E7 B! ^/ o9 R) d# g
9 R( k- [2 G& k2 Z5 o* `; S3 aBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. 6 H' J/ }* U/ f/ X6 W) d
& b0 ]( W6 G( }; r8 c6 G- QYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.4 U5 v% ?8 N5 g& t! S& s5 n
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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