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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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, ]) ^1 p b+ z$ Z/ D0 a+ V. oBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.4 z/ e, G8 j# a0 y8 l# d' V; N
) Y4 k9 w3 \2 E R0 wSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged., W. z' f* i- L
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BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." ; u" t, a) j7 d# V- p" J
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."& x3 G+ h, s6 X* r0 [4 Z
( O: m$ v$ W: j- c4 S+ [# F) H) ^. UThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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* v$ B W9 K. PBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. / q+ C3 T, O. f6 x7 e) w& o; h
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.7 T& E$ f8 O8 C/ E) ^
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1 S( h: w7 M& {; [www.happymortgages.com |
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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