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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.* u( Y, P: l* ]; e9 W- D
8 Y1 P4 s% a# [4 b! n, B& a2 ]The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:+ t3 h0 c9 \- c5 n
7 x$ s+ M0 [" _# W1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.; N% G9 h* M* A4 Q- B5 f1 R
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).' o7 F3 ^6 r& V" O4 g5 C
3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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