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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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+ |; P9 x5 q# G! H: Y有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this4 }& Q$ x" I8 w5 [
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017$ o& g: w B2 f5 Z3 h$ `
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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7 }! P% R* H) E* c! O' \7 R6 ^Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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+ K, q, G6 C* @' DNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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) p% l1 ]2 ^. Q& a* `“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”+ f5 N, W6 [6 i) U( ~$ y9 O3 _
7 ?& M! _* L" F; ]* i8 j3 t+ uCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”/ |# t0 B s+ `
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.
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/ d Y" J- ]. i; ~Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.9 r* t9 o+ c% E
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”1 d" l( Z) }# B$ T$ s b
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”+ Q& v- g z+ v( [+ S$ R
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking # l4 _5 ^6 T8 Q! j8 r9 V6 q4 ?
Around.”
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- v& }# ^* }7 e! D V0 uFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.7 n: b# z, B- I5 y4 S4 V& H
4 \$ G. z! P" d$ ~: X( ?8 j: o# S- [5 pSource: CNBC" N& X$ G- t5 P! j0 @- z
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
