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Thu, January 11, 20074 B, }5 |* k( @
' s* u; F8 @8 Q$ h8 n7 |9 V% [- wPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007! b, t Y2 v) B
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN' y) Z: P. S4 c
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6 k( f5 C7 O3 a" {$ ~. B6 n( }They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ; }7 A) [+ q" a9 [- _/ l; N. Y5 m
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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, e& J# f% A5 I! z2 c3 b"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. " M" ~3 d( k# V- ~7 V! q7 A
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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* b" {: i. t" f/ c"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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) ?- y8 C3 _& c3 g' M; w"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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9 b# a! `. `, u) MNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." / X5 ]* N$ k" Y) n2 y
# s$ e% N2 @# F6 nExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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" k, Z0 G; w* ~- h( q* WOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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- N- [1 e Z& EHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ' j2 u# ~( q4 V- u% [; e \
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. - M: E- F$ V0 N6 [+ k; A( ]
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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$ @5 ~9 ~! y7 l7 lYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : o: G- f: U4 n6 I4 f, H
3 M- W; F2 M9 r8 ]) ^Let the good times roll.
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
