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j1 p$ G9 V6 }5 D Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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5 Z. S( v7 w0 W5 K2 K9 FPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007. x! Y- A0 g& g9 I. J" u
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN V5 Y+ v- F8 r, R+ s+ [
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( D! e4 Y9 _, l# \9 a, ~0 O* p7 fThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 3 K5 {: S k7 z0 o
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ) z. s8 n |, ?2 `( ^( P
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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. E+ ]% d9 `+ V' }( W, J"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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4 n$ ~0 B1 C, PCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." y. Z |' J3 @7 l: E9 Q& D% A
* \' r7 Y; C0 IStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 2 M t0 r; r% A7 `! G1 Y) Y- N! @
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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; V8 T5 l6 g# n' Q _+ T8 N: X# E) n"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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# ]/ A3 t) D' J, I, SHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 5 q: H3 r2 A4 N9 f2 Y
# w+ a0 ]" X/ w$ @ g% TExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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6 z* N' a% T0 IOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. # R: K! S. i% e" E/ U0 r
6 p) F7 C) ~" ~# m) P/ N9 d# THis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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& d/ L# {! Q0 NSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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! V7 ~7 X5 X" p8 I, B6 QYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. G- Q" o- F7 F" U1 l
' ?8 f; t' j- i5 |- |" l8 V6 z( l. LLet the good times roll. 1 N1 u) P7 T& i; M7 J" n G
, s9 Y P' T' FPrevious story: Bottom Line* |4 F( @/ [! w; v3 }+ d+ O
Next story: Building permits hit record( F- x w/ F' N! }5 ^
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