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Thu, January 11, 20079 H0 l9 S" }( x; j
" @2 c1 E+ b. t+ a. f, i3 p- nPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007% f; }5 n L* d) @* w
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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: l7 Y7 D" ]& i3 r# o, y1 F3 E" aMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 6 |% X$ M+ @! u) B) L) V( _
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 7 f8 d! f; j4 `4 d3 r& W$ `( S
* q. F6 t$ A+ _$ u$ kDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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2 q8 O4 F3 _. f. T"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." : I, q3 w: F- m0 [/ p
! G% z% ]( `4 vShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 6 C( p8 e7 C1 i0 Z* J' s6 d$ k
# y( d1 t% }. m3 _: ]; k3 R"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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' H. S3 S$ B/ k; @: @ {& uCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. " i+ w8 @0 I, M2 `/ R) |4 ?) e
4 e {) e) d' K( x4 {% E"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 7 F ~# s: t I) f3 k) y
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. + w! h+ A7 t# [* z5 T
9 e# Q- M! L& @, A! F"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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/ V. p) T) @/ P3 _( i) P- Z* m"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ) J7 P+ L- s9 V, _- [2 X- R- ~% ~* ]
6 O4 J5 I' c1 ^0 f1 D"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ) W+ a; @, P9 |0 k
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: L5 \! X0 I$ a: V" dHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. + [. j$ |! B4 j( R! V: R; N
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 9 p9 u/ _' R: l4 `" V4 D6 M
6 k* ~- M' U$ A"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 3 U8 g1 M* |/ f l# Q; h
6 ~8 e8 k0 a1 p' T0 D3 T' [ `Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. " o1 B0 Y6 c$ E+ A
9 j# G( Z% |4 T"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : n1 ?% O4 n- V/ J+ S' x2 V
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Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
* i# Z' ]! ^0 W. O8 Y' ]3 F% ^Next story: Building permits hit record* O4 _3 Q9 u" Q( I& R( u% C2 F6 ^, ?
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