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$ _4 a1 r s5 }2 Y( O3 W6 n" u3 oThu, January 11, 2007
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+ _* c7 c5 A" ~$ e* FPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20073 f" L7 K1 @$ m2 U( ?% V
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN5 g, i ?5 }% _! C
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3 g$ r: F7 z8 P; t& oThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. - Q4 w0 X4 U8 E+ R e& Q, {* @
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. $ Q: z3 M+ d, c2 V; J
4 i0 ^; t; {8 j9 uBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. , l, x8 m6 ^; C& H( a6 w
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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) m- @3 l. x/ Q+ g9 J5 m8 l"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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0 X2 o9 [" p4 ]% n' y) h) C5 qShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. * y1 C' q. s- u( |( ~
$ P8 S8 P3 O/ m- ?; y" ]+ a"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 N0 j2 T5 z) `9 Z. N
5 X" k- }6 h$ \3 z$ K# o1 s"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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1 j; f: b7 j% e' KStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. & h% \4 i. ^( y# M w0 y2 z) S
9 e3 v6 G% Z' `" |"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. / A& F6 _; P& y' V# w& H5 v' f# i
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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( D! d( o8 U: b6 W"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. # ?1 ]0 \9 G: ^" `; G/ k
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT - b; @! F8 X: H- Z; m# H
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." * O! D% s. g$ q6 h. Z2 R3 T V( p
$ x3 N4 @/ l) O- eExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 1 Q$ C* j, [: ~% a* }
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. : m) ]6 d% m8 E) L) L
# |! _) ^1 {, Z% U4 ^! iHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 0 Q- G0 s' L3 N2 P" w
" D" r8 R7 m3 S5 a9 ~* ["Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ' s% e) Q9 l& @0 r8 U
+ K! y/ L; B% \, z4 ?& fSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ) D& @2 w9 I2 o
8 D* R0 ^- m3 J! T7 J' YYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ' C8 ?& U1 y1 }4 C
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Let the good times roll. - Y9 H0 b7 b5 E, w: [
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