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8 q. v Y1 b; w" H; ^ Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com- Q; `9 t. F# [; a
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5 X( y# h3 h5 N2 j& r5 J- oThu, January 11, 2007* z5 t# D8 Z3 [
l, b( j# P( E: ?9 J6 B- z$ kPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
% c" ?4 p* k: B. I/ j6 l' \; T) NBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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* I$ c3 y: J% I) \/ GThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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+ n. J, c3 h0 p! c) L, pMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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7 _+ j! @& X1 S* wBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ' S- _# @' d7 C& k4 x1 h( D0 H6 ?* P
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. % Z+ C# X2 K- A" g( Q+ v& A
5 w) R$ C/ }) |7 z3 u, b'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 |& v+ o, z. W
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 2 h7 l; a5 _) N) r2 J0 l1 h! r
- n1 G+ M2 _9 p$ aStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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2 W8 q; e" z: N% b& ]"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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4 @. |2 T, z7 n% w( z' n' ~"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ! o0 i- A& ~& r: J3 H
& U" w1 \. q5 v' C% \$ ^8 a) ~"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 9 C( R3 l) w! n( H5 b7 {! @5 V
; D0 l* ~9 M- f: d) G& N3 a' UOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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, Q9 M. n/ L9 C; Z0 z3 fYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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" v/ R5 ]3 ]& B8 J0 d"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : t7 F+ }" M8 a6 W! P! j
" H+ Y$ y. Z Z) YLet the good times roll.
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4 F5 ~' m& } V" X' S& |Previous story: Bottom Line
3 L+ P8 m, ?7 L- A% [8 x5 XNext story: Building permits hit record3 @1 W# J4 u# E5 G) Y3 V3 F
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