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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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' ?) P# A1 q& N) r; H4 B- @$ ?Thu, January 11, 2007/ h+ ^$ a8 \; x {* n
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
* s: F6 {/ j" wBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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7 M) q! ?: w2 I# I6 ^/ d/ e. XThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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$ X; `' U: D7 u' y4 NBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 3 D6 ?( c7 i# t' x4 q4 d
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3 t% K: {' W$ i( `' n h+ x"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ; Z a1 A: H' o" z: B4 z
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 5 u# N+ o7 N s, v. o/ g+ c! l
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ( Q' b. X% T) c6 d& P# u( N
6 B' I2 N" l+ o8 O4 E( c9 s"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 4 I! ?8 s: b1 y9 x( o: e' Z1 s& d, k
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ) z6 R" p" I" b, r
& T. a: \1 s q, K8 n: C( H G! k+ o"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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6 w2 v! z) _9 t" `: e! C"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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" j/ n0 B* _# V, ]3 \Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . O% s* l' v; Y! R9 a8 X
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 8 _/ Y: f8 P( g2 Y! L6 M
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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) Z- a9 ~! L- nSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 5 i( t' g" e/ X7 s: l
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 2 I- ^7 J( n# b, G7 y+ C
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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2 \, A4 _1 @6 y) O" y" t5 NLet the good times roll.
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( c# Q& E8 ]/ ^6 X! W. sPrevious story: Bottom Line
% v3 \* n6 H' @! y$ d8 l! X zNext story: Building permits hit record6 j# F/ j; Q: w" N R
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