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! h" `. W% a. e6 b Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com. X2 \. R Z. N2 ?+ R$ F; T+ r
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
! R3 b* h6 l* r* [ u8 g1 IBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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) A4 W% o1 w3 o$ C, UThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ( [* k. P/ p1 E8 \% O0 e3 C) Z" h! S
' h# @0 p2 s0 S/ H8 jMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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- [4 ]/ d* z5 z0 ?But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. u3 Z Q7 x* {' _& [
: h- [8 |, _7 [* n. ~6 M( H \% sDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 6 w0 L8 F$ o' u8 {( C
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' * _- |" Q7 q& q+ E
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 6 X2 {* P0 g# U$ r* y$ V
3 d7 C& N/ z- W8 j- S"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 0 k+ m5 Y8 ^- @
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ! s) A( Z4 n1 A
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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5 L. D- }, }1 P1 \"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. , R9 S4 |& Q" H' y t4 [; k; Q
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 4 Z. m+ L7 U' {4 Y; v, \
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ' P$ }. ]% C6 k4 v' A3 T" X% |
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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6 w% ]! ?% {# f5 ]5 _1 b( c2 w( lHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 1 ^) @6 }' l9 Q+ j2 O/ @- k
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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3 p7 g7 {# ~1 }7 u"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ' v( ]3 L5 d8 K$ {2 M' ^
8 `$ d, Y+ i* U+ ~9 l4 p+ N# `Let the good times roll. ( |* x) y" E3 w7 z. |
: S- _8 g; A" ?) s7 t& X1 APrevious story: Bottom Line
% y' l; O& w KNext story: Building permits hit record
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7 R9 n3 {; J# i7 K3 q This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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