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5 M" e8 m! e6 l- p& @6 l4 w& O Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com$ H+ M/ F- |! w$ a; ~* C
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9 ^! l7 Q9 V, i [; w In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
9 Z0 a9 t7 R8 e- vBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN; I# e. Q: J+ k9 _1 ` B
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* [4 L% a! [" w% r4 J2 G* f5 JThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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6 k; m$ \. a* H4 T B* MMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 4 d" F( N7 w2 D" ]1 Q$ s' g' k
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. , d3 K0 x5 R! X8 f3 b/ r* J l' F
e9 y! C+ ~. W! j k: z DCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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3 V. B/ }- C4 u6 [% e"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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" Q* f) X5 Q2 PStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. & `! f; l3 p6 z, a
4 r! C, X5 M) @6 e* g- S2 F" k"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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& P% Y8 i: E, |) F k"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 2 k( X) ^1 ]1 Z
. x0 G+ k8 M2 \2 H) n6 z0 x"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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$ Y8 e# n. M: p- {; p1 R2 sHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." # N T; R( c* D4 n7 s/ N: N/ V4 F/ W( X
! e/ E5 A# d2 vExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 R5 s( m) z4 Z# p4 N
6 I' j' V9 N1 _" P0 N `( \1 {Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. . ^/ ]* q+ i5 {) l
% \: }1 W! j7 \% {"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ! G7 Z. X* O. n
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 6 N7 E+ v. N/ `8 O
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 8 Z: N% K. G8 ]: m: q l
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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% \& W/ z7 q, Z/ N% q$ ]Let the good times roll. $ a! [& j8 S. b A: W. C8 e; Q9 z' m
1 t1 a* Y0 }! C1 Z* \1 }Previous story: Bottom Line
! U$ v& U- `4 t; ANext story: Building permits hit record
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