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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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3 C! L/ |& [. [* \: n5 X& XThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very. ?2 G3 J) F6 S8 i5 s/ X$ E8 b
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it, m1 G, [1 c) R. J( @$ O
will be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.; m, s. m; S& ^" P: j

$ s; d% ]2 ?5 z* `1 c" PThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by4 r6 \; _6 Z- Q( u
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
0 U7 e5 V0 o/ ^: d) {9 Y$ hindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
# L0 [1 \4 t9 N& m$ ^$ FWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property. ?: G- G* w( c* t$ G4 o
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by) x2 `7 }$ F9 E$ d8 E, I
how much.
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9 F! \4 h0 B1 y7 U1 f3 p- C4 ~/ BFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,$ t, h/ M; d) |% y
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very5 _6 o! N5 v2 A- `7 V
strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest" P  V; S- I' k% `3 e
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
* e  R: D& o/ L) L% ]June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
) L" O- s: e( Cmarkets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact' q) s5 s2 E& W
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.* W2 n8 I; [( l# g# e9 @: h
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
# B4 C4 ~, b" bmarket continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into! M& o1 U, K" A
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we1 w% [! j* |- F( T
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). 7 }6 H7 R2 C3 Z! N. w
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these/ j+ u) c* V7 p, ?
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
$ f- g! [3 V% c4 o+ e+ fmonths.  
  C3 r2 S: X# v5 U4 u4 t! e/ S8 t3 B7 L( ^2 {/ Z
Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
  E1 m4 e0 E" O5 N9 f& ^' ncaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying2 i+ `2 q! h$ Z0 y% [5 |
fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
9 [0 P& Z1 a! |6 d" L% Pthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
- J* j- {, E# Q  l8 Runtil it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
' b/ _. o) E+ n6 ?because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.* j" F8 n2 G! t1 k2 u

  c+ R3 R2 |$ y% H  a5 c8 V* wBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June1 W7 w  b/ R4 B0 k8 y& j
2005 to June 2006), also great news.+ ^; I; {" g: V: Q7 s

& z' f- X4 Q  W4 i; g8 j2 n( mBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June% f+ X8 Q# v# w* u8 c- U6 x) d
2006 New Housing Price Index for:0 D* }. ?' q( ?7 N8 }8 J% [  `- A

) Z, g) O- _6 c' d# ]# PVancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
3 X2 d- y3 L' v; C% y0 aSaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
) y  X2 I; u! P. d6 eLondon . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
0 O4 v8 q8 J5 R7 u0 T& HHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%; O, c3 w# g2 L; A8 u: K
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
" M; g3 ?+ ^+ \+ T+ `2 DToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
7 ~3 W7 C$ u1 K: X" H! pOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%
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* H3 T! D/ v+ ^  F( [7 j% A8 q' dFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing4 w/ L) N' z& Z# \/ A( b
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!+ X8 T2 E3 A0 }% m9 B$ H+ Q' s9 W

; g8 \4 H. N2 W' l8 x* U; VAs the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
6 P+ g, o& O- V6 i4 ?7 |2 E% O4 Tbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
; q5 H; c8 L  e& k. p$ conly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
6 V, o2 ?+ x/ s- ?3 O! u2 f9 Iincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
* l" L* U" a+ A& Ydrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.$ z8 T3 r4 d! Z: {' |  Q

; o3 p8 d! f% B$ a5 D: }; WHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong. e8 e' P. I/ |/ \  L
fundamentals:) Z$ v6 u" Q( {: Z% I. ?; j4 x- G
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
2 b3 L7 ]2 D! z3 o; J" R% r" MCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth6 r  U; }% K; i3 x& I* l: O% R
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
/ ]! ?. s; l8 ~' @- f& b% y8 athis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.6 z# u! W2 {" w! B4 o3 w. v8 }6 C6 ]1 g
1 y+ k2 y7 U% S! Z# b. v; E
2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the, l" g8 B* ~& N
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
+ }0 M1 k. k9 v5 N, Jthe US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
; {# G# V$ X8 _. d3 v0 E4 @that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. 1 [( k! F) W; a7 u9 o
8 h6 k' |& x, _& F
3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
$ c& i6 Y0 h9 g2 v" Gatmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
: q6 \8 N! d, u/ DDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
2 L- D, S  F# s  b, ~0 ^Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest/ x! U3 W  ^2 h6 I! K# Q
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again) h+ ]1 g8 k  l5 Y. I
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the  h" W2 p9 }: c: t. L
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
" e7 O: W* J; E' W8 W) t1 f- Hbeat it for long term investment.
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" P$ Z( \( x+ Y! ?- i4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
3 {) [& G+ r2 D& E* d# w, p" Ea sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job0 L9 [( e# h( Q. I' x1 S  ~; g
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
3 q5 a9 m$ N) r! V6 r8 f3 [5 [* w"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
" c6 n; a1 `- ?4 E5 u& O3 lJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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, i0 [+ f2 n4 \6 I) L1 }+ wStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the/ a: l- d4 H1 ?
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the$ |/ o, S+ o1 K: F6 x. S
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
$ n3 R+ S+ M! T6 d0 V' y' i% qthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not* ^/ H, A! p$ P
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with- u- ~: j( t. o- V) _" T  F1 Q6 n5 @
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at9 e9 b0 t, @5 x1 H* g0 X" f
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate7 f3 Y# e4 A: g% Y/ j4 _
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
3 Z% P) D. f4 qwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.) \7 {/ n& y# H4 z$ M% n4 ^

. t. p. q& [: G5 i+ M4 @+ T$ d% x4 L& R  i7 o
In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
' y6 N2 w! g+ ]" m$ Eeconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
7 U+ ?: Y' c% M5 \'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do( K: Z9 y2 B; u) d7 h2 i: V
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
  ?/ ~# O9 r% S( `1 {0 _2 ropportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
9 S- x4 w. _  C'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared7 N5 D3 C6 b3 i+ X  K* ~; j, _
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.  r  w+ w1 P0 C3 ?+ W8 a# z
+ w/ A/ [4 Z- a4 Y+ }5 v
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Capital Gains Comparison.
  N6 J2 d: R6 \  J& \
1 K) e1 t: A! g' o  k7 FKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial2 V% R  r' V# L0 R% d, V! h6 ]8 h
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see! X; J+ g  e) N/ {% s! w
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:3 x: K( S. f3 q' Q
; o0 p& K" U* l, G- V
BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%6 m3 [. I+ n/ X
AB . . . . . . . .  19.5%, r  J4 s" s7 n
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%7 }+ }( t& i5 N& m( E
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%! U$ V4 m: e. v' u  V
ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
& I  A8 ^& @5 n5 D- p' R: L; GQC . . . . . . . .  24.1%7 f* D- C7 f7 f) M
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%! B! ~9 t; S* x
NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%: E1 _) R' m2 v
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%- d5 U$ u) ~5 u' a
NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
, V" ^9 K( a( R1 d; Z+ P: l  E# \) H( [7 d) N
Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
! r* N* W! F5 p1 m" meconomy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
5 a5 N5 {2 }! q0 H; K" Vtheir profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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, A6 Y3 Q" X- ^' ]Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the( U1 o1 ^5 l2 O& p9 b  R2 }/ e
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
% b$ c& ?. g2 _, o7 x! \course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only') ]0 _9 {: ^0 |7 J# B
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
% O. w: H9 c! {when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the- ~( c3 z& R3 \# U/ e
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
& b# S" d6 p( g% P" y4 JNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...3 w9 }( V8 M5 z/ G1 H; h) A7 H

& G9 Q8 G. n% O; ?; t
0 r3 O5 |6 Y: M% AThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
* C7 l& ]5 B% g. rinteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it9 Y1 F- h8 L( O+ _( U- `* ~. \
will be  ...
+ }2 q3 Y+ x! I5 I

! f: P: Q# I& Z$ `谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good. 5 h2 G  _" _0 v- n
$ F* G7 v6 I# j" C% V/ ]# V
http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49" L& i3 h8 P- o) @
. [. H5 d$ J  \: a9 O
You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
$ _; r7 z3 C" z! y( M- \3 ]1 D9 k7 K% J6 m# i, m
http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。, A" m# _) a# F. m

, e: Z8 C+ K  P! q5 H6 R- Y***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****3 E* d1 v& }' I9 h

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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
7 e7 ~2 ~* F+ |/ ZNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...) [! ?& @5 D- o: M* _
! R; ]& e  d% m* B8 v2 b

; C/ _& a0 j1 M. Q0 F! G' iWith close to 3,000 net new people into6 r! v9 z9 f1 ~/ N9 ]" o! b* U
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
3 h3 q5 {  f: isaw the New Housing Price Index ...
! S# `# v( g; M( A0 n5 e
[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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