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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG
/ L' r6 {. w( F* [7 A如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。8 O! O3 ^; V$ U$ _- k
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http://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html
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% q, u9 [5 n- s; T6 G e4 m" e" aFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania/ J) T: {1 ~3 ^. T
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It is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself
0 M- I+ P' F# O5 ] W5 k( V, q5 C, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science- s6 i0 Y$ ~/ G8 t" _5 ~; s4 I
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this! ^* V6 a% V: k, @% r4 r8 I
is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the. G1 ~+ D; w/ K4 M. w0 I
scrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general
6 E, o/ k, D8 s. Q7 K" x ]4 qpopulace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors
, _) p% v t. k9 @ L* Pshould at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,
7 T5 Q$ L0 w+ q" W+ ] J( @* Kwhich they blatantly failed to do.% B5 M9 D" K' w" Y9 Y. v
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First, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her% H9 E' S* b. W' @" S+ A
Olympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in) [6 p# c7 V& e* |4 ]" h
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “
8 i; _) P3 w. x+ P, Aanomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
" O# `& Z3 M6 ipersonal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an. p% y3 g _+ m b; }+ W, ^
improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the
% J; k# ~0 F- H1 @3 F: g- T0 ~difference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to
. |( }1 y; M, o2 f. N% Zbe treated as 7 s.6 a( G0 m" ~3 t% y3 v
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Second, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is
. D* p1 ?& R0 ]0 v. c+ a7 Sstill developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem% ^$ D4 `7 F5 E% D8 U) Q6 z: T
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.0 j( n/ w* ~% `
An interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 400
2 u- o3 `9 I7 h-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.
9 O2 \/ W% F zFor regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an d4 O4 {7 H9 Q6 w, v9 V' f- l
elite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and
) n. y. P3 B- } C* R' \3 Epersistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”
; i; o0 \: W1 ~6 m0 @" ybased on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.
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Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook" Y* ?: F) h* F+ O8 O" Z
example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in2 }, X6 J+ o) Q! H U# s% a
the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so
; T/ I, I5 Q The chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later
9 N' ]$ H& {0 V* M* V: }events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s4 N: z' l6 H3 x! ~4 Y" _( ~
best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World
& K4 @4 U9 z1 ?Federation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another
/ g" w- R" n& ^7 v5 U! itopic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other5 y6 q& K `6 }- [5 ]
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle
' S/ i$ d a' Z& o/ T, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
5 L% Z- C% i! i* c' D; Gstrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds: R4 Y+ K3 \3 _: A2 N- v# T
faster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam
$ M7 E; E( y' ?9 r. jfaster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting7 A3 F5 ]7 n5 t/ s/ ^
aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that
) _; i5 d1 `% c. ^. s) simplies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.! [% _, d9 d4 D9 P/ E% g, g1 W
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Fourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are
6 @& F' X/ s0 d- Ifour male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.93
. z/ e8 |5 c! B' ^, |; f5 Zs) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s. H6 p0 t/ o2 k
), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns, U- b0 F- M4 [
out, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,7 v$ k# \( m$ Q: Y5 c0 x/ A" d. z1 h& F
Lochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind3 ?) x, x2 x) n- Z9 O9 ?
of scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it) |6 T7 k6 D& |7 K! Z" u8 w
logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in# z/ ], F' ]$ p8 w9 P
every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science
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Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and
, ?5 B0 A+ |% M; e8 Wimplies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this, j9 R7 b% a6 j; {& L. m* _5 I
kind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that! [5 O4 l$ j0 Y/ ^0 U
standard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific$ i& o) ~4 ~7 o; j0 S
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and4 N% w! e2 M; p' k. n1 Z
reviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One. g9 f$ d9 W- e3 y
cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to
, l: `8 ~, i l: E# i6 Ademonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works
. ?+ Q6 \$ V! g) qto a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample
3 s( U; B2 f5 F/ B" \* bis found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is$ k# @# I$ z& [7 Q
crucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he; n2 B- B+ B/ w" ?5 \3 Z+ \
wrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly
/ a+ Z: o, a3 w+ ]$ G0 R" t; kadvanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the3 V% D9 ?- f# m( S
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not4 g7 p8 O( G! M* G& u
use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation
6 h- P G8 C3 ?, H+ p1 X7 H. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are2 {+ E. ]' x4 z
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may+ L" D" p3 l1 Z9 U8 ^8 \5 G
be true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a. E J4 F; I1 C9 Z% l. |. c
hearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye
) u7 S. \$ i& z+ Qhas doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a# Z6 L6 ~- z, F! F# {
drug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:" P" W$ s2 c w" F8 f
other than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect
+ }- ?- ?& S& R( Y4 {- z, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
* s$ H+ r9 H3 \6 d! T. T4 }probabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an
5 d6 P4 w( Y+ @: lathlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight
) f* ? j4 f3 ]* ^% [ xchance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?
$ M! y& J4 }' T2 L$ hLet’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping* s% Z$ `8 G& M
agency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for
% [& D, W2 s! Feight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.
& u" u. h& ^; Y b9 jInnocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?
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Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-( L* u" o: n- S
competition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention
5 G8 j' s; G& U9 B. Z. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for
; U( F' U, W- `2 [' w; z i2 e6 VOlympians began at least six months before the opening of the London0 i9 m8 G2 A7 h0 R8 A
Olympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for
- l6 I* z4 A8 n- C9 N ]4 J6 S2 t6 h/ kdoping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic
$ @0 k' w! A2 \ Q+ c% w7 ggames. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope! e0 q: M: F8 ~& n/ F
have already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a
9 _, E# ~. T% ?0 F' Jplayer could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this
* f, |( M1 L3 f$ I4 b! z, R! e5 Opossibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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Over all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (
/ D- {; X$ d6 M3 t, u4 Pintentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too
9 Z0 o. u0 P; y5 J0 usuggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a2 D. n# J- j) _1 T, U
suspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide
$ A5 v$ }8 V7 c' rall the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your. |; A) i) }. f+ Y- ~( ]5 S
interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,( j' b3 \$ o0 v8 k/ r4 \
explicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your
+ T" @0 J- |' K. rargument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal1 J" q K4 W: E9 v3 R; O2 f6 {3 O
such as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or* b$ h+ j% g! I3 ^6 z: |* m
reporting should be done. |
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