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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.* `7 W$ v5 f, s2 b+ `6 O
- J, ]" K8 u& v4 A; Phttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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+ w) W' O7 i: C, KPeople generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.% z/ c# O2 |3 B8 p: L
# m. n9 a; k3 R. I3 P2 }In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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( a% R% L( K! Z- ~Why might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank./ @. z. ?9 f, y* G
; v. `+ T6 H" O2 m& O/ B2 ["If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.% R9 f: R' t- N, A
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.+ `3 c) \4 }3 v$ |( r9 z
4 Y- u8 b) j- E6 ?; X8 C7 n7 zBurleton knows how they feel.
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$ W! A) g& N! }+ ^; ]% n"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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) }. D. D' o& C; ~: NWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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. ? |- m0 O6 ]( k. [$ C R6 wWith ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.2 l# L5 a: _8 A% R) |2 w% _1 h a
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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3 H# k( c; M2 c( [5 pIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.; Z8 r1 ]+ D. u' [! y
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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/ C( ?: ?7 z% S* p. G ^0 b! w6 P"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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) r5 k. m3 }+ @7 P"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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3 v$ [ @% q# T: FThe market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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