埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2614|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 t1 W/ Y8 }: G0 G& Q0 @
# x0 B0 O$ \, G' M9 V2 x3 Z, ~
Market Commentary# u' B9 ]" C  i8 P
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; U& u; s' f% U& X8 v2 g: f3 _; h1 qJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. Z2 l7 e8 {* W5 w
Signature Global Advisors) e. b0 {. T/ R( p) t5 M

2 a# g) R/ H! ~! b( L: p+ v3 L: u; D+ {- z6 q; x& C  J* f2 d
Background remarks
8 ]5 Q4 H0 T/ O, Z6 \ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are1 {! H+ @  j0 ^7 A6 S: A4 \! ]
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.8 K' l: H, F) R/ g2 [, X( ^0 f
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* ?. r8 [& l: i: S( C( i8 J5 d  i' a, K
adjustments.% @" R2 s0 v4 Q' q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 ~6 S9 `$ U& _+ P& E' g3 [safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. e$ f6 j: m& M7 U3 y+ E
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 s2 c8 G9 b( n- _
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% X# v* w# `" ~: L
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these0 o4 h% d: ?& ^% O  B
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- u# X# T9 F$ f! a, u0 V5 w
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 L/ b, t) c2 E4 p/ iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 {4 w* d& h( p7 q: M6 c
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! L- g4 p/ P6 y* m( h% g
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: A$ H' [* i0 Q3 U; O1 Sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 E9 B0 Y# q+ s; Q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& a! P! u% A. u$ }8 h
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, D" J! F; k/ ?- P: m3 s  ?. a
impose liquidation values.& S3 V& M2 N4 X8 ]  G5 W
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ {. F" W, s- z5 u" D( a! u1 k
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 _4 n* u# B8 q8 a' H0 m. ^% a+ W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension" Z: [/ ~3 M4 c$ ]2 t7 B7 J5 k
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
6 t" c3 d3 I( |- T. g( {8 x, a) j) \9 H9 c% t: ~0 K8 f, N
A look at credit markets
8 t  G# l. i) @  v% @: z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: x5 T2 [) J3 xSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) R. M: S& B+ m# A; K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. T; u7 B# e+ ~' x5 F, G; o% wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 Z* [& c# H# G- n. Q) Ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 v8 a; Y1 j' z  ]" F, N
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% V+ H1 D* S# r- T. V" v& a
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; i  \( |/ _5 qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield., C3 `9 d: n) q1 o0 d
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 c& o9 I# _/ U% Q: X9 A
finding financing.
9 g& D* j0 @1 ^+ T Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
- r: ?& N$ r& V" _. G( c  h# ~were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% s1 \& g% Y* W* ?$ X/ ?8 f$ r Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, X1 P3 A5 x- H7 c' T: \! Iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 h$ Q/ S3 C% U. ~  {
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: P8 V0 R2 e/ Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ F1 [. J8 R% Z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 d& t" j7 Y8 X2 K& R
today.
8 g/ R; y* a0 A% I' U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' u7 }7 K9 F- z- `$ _
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 |) u/ f0 k' [' `/ |- Y" ~$ b  Q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# N" }, C2 ^8 c3 |the Greek default.
# ^$ m' U; T  j+ V As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* b% `1 L: g  a" S1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! Z+ u/ b3 X2 P
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) J. H7 K) I9 N; R5 d! r  a% |
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 Q- M$ K# B* O% {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; X& I  q+ |7 U% G, Qbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  F. A& z) t% Q8 c. a1 I- K4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
6 W  _' v; [! q) N5 Y: {. h, g2 [1 S7 p0 J9 }+ s* X- U1 w* k; F
Beyond Greece: a- i0 `; u2 Y$ q' Z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 m7 L. j, y1 ~
but that was before Italy.
  ~) ~* E2 X8 g0 J) g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 \5 a4 F& E7 l) F
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 a6 ~# Y4 F; |1 B6 v2 b* }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
$ O: P, x6 Y! g1 n
# V0 Z. J! ]' t" S4 v$ _2 g, uConclusion
* B2 l4 w' f! C. A+ R  W We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-21 12:53 , Processed in 0.131222 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表