市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- e, o$ X# b) Z  W+ Y; GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
# _! i4 {- ]8 U  A" I  ZSignature Global Advisors
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, V5 Y; Q2 n; e/ N$ tBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! @2 U. p, x' ^. Y Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
) M$ u0 W* F8 g7 ladjustments.
- E4 t5 Q& j- F. T" F This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ Y9 s! o, k1 ?. d1 C# H3 ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  X" y. u5 T6 [" ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
! }. L# ~9 E+ S+ i( cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" h- q/ v- W+ i: j  F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
2 f+ I+ B* c+ C/ B9 L$ N6 F- ], x The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  [/ M  ]$ q" h. uimpose liquidation values.
# b6 N- @1 K' K5 n! ]5 A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: \9 k5 y4 A% h5 }0 H1 e4 h, IAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) X; Q# P5 D% |2 l" A3 _% B7 y4 M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 c& ^! r0 t5 Z: Q  e: H2 hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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# F" k/ k5 ?+ e$ eA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 |2 d2 q! J: H, `' Lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; E' j9 o1 n' g: hfinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. {% d3 B3 Q* N* x8 v. }: _3 Z+ A$ ~- h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 j. m3 G6 U# l& U9 }- Xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 z' B1 b9 e9 ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' H6 O) j' c' w% {& l$ y) @today.
3 e$ G- ^. a. L/ C5 Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' a# w% {1 D+ f+ @7 r+ }the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ f0 t1 i2 e0 a# x7 ~/ I8 t1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
1 o  }- X7 ~8 q  M* I) {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; S* F& l- F' O) y3 {( R. Wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, c& u- A# d- o/ a/ O: E. _3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
0 o# E! ^" P2 Y4 o- N$ v$ s) G; dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

" n, d+ \8 ~5 R# @Beyond Greece
8 ?$ K2 |' B. }7 ?$ s The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
! G5 t2 ], [. s+ @  h: V+ v, V; m! \ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
9 X7 h6 Z% f  P7 t* L We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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