宗教將在九個國家絕跡

2012AD

澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197
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22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer

Science and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas

A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.
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The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.
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The team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.

; U$ S& i+ _7 N6 k- `! d' n7 g' xThe result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.

4 k* k* ]3 Q( i$ o+ d% y; |The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.

7 B. W. |2 M4 I2 ^1 ]% e6 QTheir means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.

0 F, K3 M* P" E$ OOne of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.

3 _* e2 L/ M3 }' m/ i* ^$ vAt its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.
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\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.
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\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.
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, d) s5 Q" S4 f: h0 \\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"
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Dr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"
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The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.

They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
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And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.

7 A" N9 O; e. o7 m& nHowever, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world.
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* S+ e, l0 Y$ N3 _6 ?\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.
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However, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\".

\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
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/ A0 {' S0 a* ]6 [3 i, ]\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\"

2012AD

基督教在大多数西方国家已经走向没落。现代基督教的发展主要是靠蒙骗落后的发展中国家。

Onesimus1970

2# 2012AD
6 b+ }! E6 Q1 i什么时候在加拿大绝迹? 我们好把宗版给关了.

路德使女

You don't need to close it, it will be expanding for ever.

historian

1# 2012AD
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不同意。人脑存在，宗教就存在。

tigerkiller

看来是在国内的时候，政治和哲学没学好。连事物的发展是螺旋式的都不知道。什么事物的发展都是有高潮有低潮。哪有直线式的。