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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! ?- B# B& k3 [
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: ^6 N) b7 i" Q8 b" t. umiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! x! i! ^) M8 E
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,1 L# n5 \8 o* X* \1 j& o
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, g, i% [) G4 F/ D4 Y4 G( ~2 a "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( _# l8 r2 e Q+ ]said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ l+ o4 t) U/ D3 f" P4 t& fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 W3 e9 }, {. x# X @# Bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": d' N# E0 @$ k+ h) v9 j
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is5 i) r, {) U+ b7 L! S9 w
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: q" o e/ @: ~) mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' Y3 [: l w- ?' X5 v. y& X I
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 p/ s7 {6 s3 } r8 p; l The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the; o/ d0 S6 d0 P
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' n# Q1 u, z! r# |. @ Lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 q4 S- @& L$ q3 y U+ Z1 F
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! P% y; f9 a5 N* |. a# f1 V6 r" mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 M. Y6 ?9 f# N3 m9 p9 _0 G/ c6 t6 j
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
" y9 l9 K+ z! z* x: l According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: G, V& h; ]7 n2 G' q* \3 Smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" t9 [0 K: H E- s# `' ~the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) s: N/ {3 c' Y' l0 H! G4 K6 {
historically depressed levels. J3 g" O2 Z% N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 H/ m+ W s! U( u
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House% [8 E% y- F" A$ I- @8 M' T
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& n) P! l3 P4 \5 ?4 fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* g, _2 p' l+ b8 s8 w% r/ zenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% D- x1 H& X4 C% Emonths ahead," added Hogue.
4 D C0 K& ]7 N6 X) \, _0 v RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. Z# {$ E' `$ N( o3 d; E; v5 i X. a
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' D m( W7 U% B0 c# L
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) z4 l/ p1 E8 A; ~0 H The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 x; p" {' ^1 Q7 F6 ea broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 ?6 b2 J1 ? K- G% B/ }
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ x2 C! H' b3 F- {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ Y6 M/ V! m' n. N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 O) U" d6 ~) U, ?: z6 k. M
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ g3 E: }% T) M8 ~! R ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* J: ^2 p+ U: t* a8 `3 z% a: kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 b' w* e, j$ a+ l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: b1 V @2 [' k6 pFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 S+ a2 h% \% C0 T( dcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 ]) A. i! ~4 `7 \5 |, z5 e
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 i! e0 ]; d& Q8 L5 s! O
% B5 A) F0 Q5 \1 [6 c- p <<
; o! |0 j/ J0 M1 ^: V& R% E9 s7 d Highlights from across Canada:
9 ~/ e" Z: a" E* G
8 S" _8 f3 }' k8 F0 l4 ~ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* L w* u4 R7 E, C intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
1 T3 W+ `5 R1 Y( O' G home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound s3 F! E$ M2 w0 E! }! y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 @' ^) S ~0 m3 g- |; ^ since about the middle of 2007.) k3 s* P/ R( r. A9 f
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; u5 `2 \9 H0 t: K) E5 Q3 _1 @ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* O, V8 p) A# x& f decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still( g0 q' r/ j a* z, U% L5 M0 N
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' q* N" s4 G. N$ h! C. d7 @
poor affordability levels.
% B8 B6 i4 P( b/ F: u3 A D - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 |9 z$ X1 b) Q# i vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- q/ E ^7 l; H# \; r
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 a# `4 A, {) Z: X# L3 w Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. [% v$ w5 P" @. ~, N( f
minimize any downside risks.
6 i; `( f0 q& I) m3 P - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: s5 `/ T7 m: Z conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- |$ z3 A# P+ e3 p0 a
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
, K! k3 ^; b# @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 q5 `* E6 M! [. g( L' N9 T: Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: T6 G( K% l8 }, r* I - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in( {- H2 ^" Z- }
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 L+ l* D: b8 e, T/ w4 A& Q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) {( H" q. G1 f reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 I& A0 R) C: @7 f* ^, y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 D9 u4 ]7 E% b( g modestly in recent years.
% K' p8 ]* A Y8 O' Q/ w: z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
R& G1 o/ H% u; N1 t0 \" q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 J7 X7 A$ R/ {# ^
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 h& M9 n$ S3 l) m5 e
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& d6 {- ?9 U7 T0 E2 f following two years of deterioration.: i8 ^+ k: d. \. t
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