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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC $ v7 j- d) L5 T+ w
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, y0 Z& G* c. q$ n0 Tmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* \6 D" \" F8 {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! L C; E: [; Z; K! b2 r! d, Xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 A: r* \3 Y: D \$ `7 b
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% I. ^& U1 b/ N+ G
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; q8 ^6 n5 ]* r' u. `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability! I. d" I2 u! w* u0 U
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 \ T4 D p% O& d/ w# d
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 `( Y4 i0 u- Y1 d2 u! mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: _& B2 V1 o; u3 l+ {$ p& y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 F5 v- y5 j2 g- S& |7 nsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.- q' L5 p. `9 ^' B+ ^
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! [ X9 _+ s2 Q; B$ _( i% ^5 e }8 lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 m: z- |1 ]/ F/ I1 w
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& m9 D; V/ X8 N/ ?/ ^& n
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
/ r# {7 j; w }3 tstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) o8 t7 G2 A; _/ e
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., t( ^6 p8 Z! P7 A7 q3 h7 ~
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( b* Q+ }, A- S9 R: \
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 w+ b9 w9 p* H+ L. gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: W# j1 c, H; o. l ~4 ohistorically depressed levels.
+ {1 l' Z) N( B7 K/ E) I Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost6 ~2 E4 X5 k Z) Q8 |, R, {4 f X
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% L* \. H6 ~" Q$ b- W* Sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 Q* M0 c9 N T- {3 J# r$ T
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This* q( q4 H( ?! s9 l- o) `) Q
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' V: M# ]* }$ m5 q
months ahead," added Hogue.
2 L# H7 Q+ p2 {# R7 Q e( N8 p RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 T9 J' J" ]3 [7 R' Y
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 S8 c/ ?2 A: r1 L' K42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.- j& n' u0 b( F! t
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' m5 Q4 K; u/ o5 K
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
% G F6 m. V4 acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! \: B: W9 F2 U$ U" F* U2 ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 b+ P& K' S+ z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' D& B- j! O, |based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' P3 G7 j2 u b" V# v; y8 c( sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& y" x! k# I( P6 Fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( ?- p5 I7 W2 y4 Y1 D" s
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
8 w+ [9 U* K9 `( t3 B" k5 LFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
4 r" ?( s7 O4 F, M8 l% Scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ G4 z! w% [8 r3 a* h# }
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; z, F5 n% |: h g$ j9 A4 ]" \) C! X% X1 J' w; u; X2 R& Z
<<
# k3 D0 T& n. C0 W; ^8 n Highlights from across Canada:5 n3 D8 o7 a1 B" k8 w
: b. a. L- S& ~# Y. ?; y" A
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& G2 s+ P) s# ^: f! @
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- M' X0 k' R! @1 G, I0 @3 S$ s$ w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound x* t! k9 z% _, s3 I$ ]
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track& K/ w8 `" P1 y% l# V. o
since about the middle of 2007., m! n$ R7 c2 t1 b9 N! V9 l9 D3 A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% k7 [, ?/ M# T frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 Y0 \: ?2 U }3 J5 N/ R: I- i decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 X8 T+ O1 ~0 G( T; `" } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, @$ z, ?. P* C5 p# t1 |. x
poor affordability levels.
. A$ a8 a' k( M8 o; V+ _ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. x1 Y9 A6 O7 X& K vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 S5 d& G% S9 W; n
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" B+ V g/ s: k& n Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) R V% Z" P2 v: X* ? minimize any downside risks.
) D- z8 M& \ J2 L3 r7 j - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- l P$ {$ J0 u: o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 h: n0 z+ }1 J; `. K9 l6 [7 B# w* s# v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% N) D7 M3 R0 X* n$ E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) y* z& }3 O* J
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. Z, j% z- Y: Z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* U- C2 x; W5 q1 ?/ S' ]- l* S* ^ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 z" ?- q# U) @2 T, ~( C5 I$ V
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( e; c/ {# D' L, r; j3 O reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ H, D( k* Q8 E5 r. i1 G$ J ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. o4 C7 ]3 ?' a; x2 c5 W
modestly in recent years.8 n! R" g# m5 u: h
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 q+ |) H4 l) {- W& S% C
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
P+ m4 j' l6 l! J, u spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 [' G9 ^* N3 K, A" B
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
O. E" |( D! M5 S# @3 | following two years of deterioration.
- Q/ g2 }4 c( z- L+ x9 n. D# E >> |
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