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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ w& W# d9 X# i1 {/ H, a TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the U4 {5 V- x8 ]' a
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive( I0 z3 }" X G9 _
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 [7 x2 |! v1 r$ u. i1 r+ Taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
L6 a+ A" p+ c$ O# \ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 v9 g- x. Z% ]4 }5 ~1 [
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* w$ H" ? z' m( r; O; G7 R7 e( Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, X) |2 V0 m" x2 ?+ G! C
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% T0 N/ E6 n% U$ T" O! E3 t. v0 \ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 s7 K* W1 {! C4 |% \" N+ Fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 s: K7 H. n! e/ `. v8 f G4 i, U
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
9 @3 f% v* z1 Y, ysustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 H+ ^. B: e( B& Y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! x% I9 v5 |# ?0 o8 z& x- wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: ]: x/ p2 l u! Q H. u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 B9 I& ]) \/ G+ H
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 F4 Q8 {4 Q, v# Z- jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 s6 o8 g. A( f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 |4 g. h. k" M( T
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' D9 U0 U, J8 _: Z4 ^# |+ E% e) E
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) H- a9 k6 d; i+ I! [
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at( L1 C$ E8 \+ c+ W. b
historically depressed levels.
( |8 v& ^" G0 j Z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 V# s6 n* O- s, i2 Wof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 G. c9 i* m* E4 [; Q# p: b$ X
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ d+ W$ r! X2 k. x- y+ H, l
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# K0 |7 ?0 g; renormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) ~2 \* E+ Y7 J& v* Hmonths ahead," added Hogue., r. ?' G; }; s; L! a
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ h$ y5 E3 J1 n
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary$ T. U8 B" P* ~5 p9 y# [& z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 S( f0 f- @" ^$ L- ]
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for/ g8 ]% c( K! l0 u6 I O8 h
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: l: z5 {& ^- u$ }4 P4 dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. ~; x! l4 w; l, v7 m+ c
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) u, V& @2 \% Y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is+ e2 l! O6 x( v n- C1 I3 \3 o
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 }$ n+ y) e# W- @
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ |5 I- @0 I' ^8 I5 M6 Qincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 l u! K$ |; L* O% pcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ A3 {2 p; Y; B" k6 V F! W
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) i/ b% V0 M! L2 g* l2 jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- k6 w8 X- ^) Y: p+ n
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( _' Y# k& `) S" A' T) R
7 `8 w8 ?" M& |7 T7 n <<
" V. _+ e; S) i2 C3 P$ h/ S9 ~ Highlights from across Canada:. J. ?) |# N5 s0 B0 f( Q
' @* C: {6 \8 b U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' O/ l* E1 X3 u4 E) ^6 x
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ r0 x+ U6 u* e" O, H* W c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& ?) o& Z# U! \ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 ?2 ^/ o! m! I! [, x+ p
since about the middle of 2007.5 i8 c, h# @$ c" e T, ^
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- }) C. k5 g2 O0 \* c
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; [; _# \0 e: B/ a5 `
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 }- z. ^- s3 W) J X7 o2 Y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely! x# K* E2 F# {; U/ X5 g
poor affordability levels.
# d+ }- e6 G7 P7 T- _ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* L: h0 _( {- Q& Y vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 R E3 b9 O0 |; o
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- s# L% x' f$ c; _' \
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 m" P; j/ c' }4 y3 O minimize any downside risks.
* J& }% f* L( g8 J" O5 d - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ }" K, U4 E( `2 b conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 a% o6 c" h5 c7 { unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 {/ o2 g+ @8 _5 [" J% B6 h 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( K* ~ `. A" d! {1 q0 @9 o. ]8 }# t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 @3 E: X& y9 Q2 O: v
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 v2 p2 ~1 z t) p1 N( t
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus9 N% s" a Z6 J, _# {
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- X: k+ @& } t& A
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& a" }( r/ G- a1 z9 w8 M) D
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 N" l: D7 A- i+ l, u
modestly in recent years.8 z0 t& |- X% X$ q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- R7 t/ c+ C* c5 q
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, n. i- J# e$ k V! l
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( {. I5 L6 _2 d1 L* f9 L! `# x
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. H: W- M. @/ O& `
following two years of deterioration.8 |" @ Y+ H- E' R- B, C$ x4 o
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