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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 p* Y. j, }. {* G( t0 a TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 V/ m2 {- g' @$ [& nmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 g3 l. }8 b$ {# e% b& zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 Z% V1 D3 b) L6 l
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 ]& Z) l; ?8 k/ t "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", ?5 F2 L! F2 I. P% a' ~+ \
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) C/ {$ _ d; y, t- jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* T2 v* I; G/ s9 `; q6 V* ?- l2 W7 h# Y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" f& J' o3 g& T; m+ S2 q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
+ M+ b* n: J! Y9 }( [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% u, G; m" z% q
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 I% i; W: E5 C
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. I2 A% |! W7 b) C6 h; y- E) l# k
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: v6 [" r/ c$ w+ a$ v# Fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: ~/ F! \. B: J$ G, w V
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! P* C; u! Y* l: Z0 s0 U( M% [3 I6 U
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
3 J0 j/ Q, D* m3 e( X. A2 Nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
W9 n: y1 c, @1 l- nthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' L3 P! @ F9 `) r% [! S5 K: ~
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 L3 u3 e+ T: e2 P: u' c2 E4 {may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 b6 k5 c; @/ g- ~7 O9 |the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, m7 h3 E L: U# z* @) I3 [
historically depressed levels.! ~( x6 D/ Z2 l: w, F! l- l
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 k$ R' G+ Z2 U+ ]
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' r6 c: \4 O. s; {2 }. ^9 _
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& `( x2 A0 W! B& l8 E6 Vhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' i& g8 D5 y5 Benormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* t3 W: d0 w- `' y' l( D/ ~months ahead," added Hogue.( l0 G* s& d [' m( e2 F8 A
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& e# K( t, p. f8 b. _ |
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* a1 k/ z3 R: N& W42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ C: Y8 z9 W3 U' T& S3 C The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. `0 \' F; o5 P/ h5 f: R! Y: k
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& e' `5 Z' j0 E% F7 Mcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 o; z+ a6 S! c( ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, d1 ~# n( p# n The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; g: a. o. i3 E: x9 j
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 [8 c6 d* D gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" v- \; d8 q) ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; a) k7 R; g) G7 ?
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
. W8 B9 N. p' Y" g0 h4 ~$ GFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: v! ?* d% Y2 x2 A% s _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% ^7 `- B, U- |) @" }' z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% ^+ y6 x7 J: S, z9 Q; v/ S$ _- f3 l
<<
9 U; O: G- ~) w; W2 `% B5 T Highlights from across Canada:
* i! D5 Y* S5 o6 w! [7 |7 z# Y5 o4 b1 S# r# t$ A7 C( |
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 t2 Y7 T4 i6 Z& j1 P0 O
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
1 H! z$ h2 R# j% @6 _+ C home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 n. T4 E0 a4 ~7 F$ e. Z; G only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track( d5 J5 v6 o& n
since about the middle of 2007.
4 a# I6 ?' j: s( q2 ]! { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 F7 }- R, K1 U; v
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* x" D1 S$ S3 w/ ] decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& x$ C0 y1 W& Y. j/ L0 R largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 d- R; {, ^$ Q( Y+ G poor affordability levels.5 w4 M X' h. v: p m6 C
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* r* \$ o: B+ {% ]9 F* f
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and$ M: V5 x8 y( C4 h$ L' l( f" V( j
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ t0 ^5 S5 a2 K& R8 r; z0 D Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' C, H+ [; F9 x- H minimize any downside risks.+ f) T( ?2 T( [. O6 |
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) M) h/ q* y5 R6 z7 o" E) M2 {
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* u) r3 }9 h: [1 c! ] unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ O) O @) C0 O7 u+ Z7 B$ M
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 j1 |) u( t. U" z: x7 t* X/ {
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 \! Y1 h- g) y/ J- n- r
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, i0 m v. q# c! R Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
9 E+ i N" N% y3 [5 M, C# c/ m far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up+ a, K3 }: |! F o
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) T! q r: X& W( N ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 _! ?' o5 Q0 N+ J* S6 d3 B1 l
modestly in recent years.$ P# x4 h* ]3 {. B
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the$ @: _! \; e0 @7 L8 \+ }8 E
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& \: t, a" P5 m0 g spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward ^6 q6 z$ @) z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 l$ A1 L; ~/ r% Q/ Y$ N. {& L following two years of deterioration.
1 k: J$ J0 Q4 p3 v R >> |
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