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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- _; F. d. n( }. r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 A) i8 X! O: R7 e* k2 ^1 K \middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
7 p; b$ N9 G! y% r; Y6 W) y: q' Y s5 dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, p3 V6 ?: \/ R8 J& Raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ c" x$ T, N/ |. P
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 N. ~; h# o1 @
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
6 i- m. b/ |* X- }improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 [1 @% h% i) J6 _
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 K8 d2 c* M! M `! D8 Z, V RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ M7 ^, x7 K& L$ K
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
( l6 U& Q# |" @1 d( A9 E8 t0 x' xwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ ]7 G ~0 g; u: @
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.5 _- l( R4 w, J _! A R
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 d) _4 a3 v$ z/ W
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 K+ O* ~; Q% q' x0 \. U; p* ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 x) {2 n7 G" P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" y' x3 s6 o! l% c( z5 J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ S# t( Q6 R. k
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: p* _, \/ s3 Z8 i+ y# D: w According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 d4 u% w, X/ L- w8 e6 H) n+ \6 s+ Lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# `! h( f1 d4 B" F0 F$ R& o) o
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ {' f! _2 W) A3 [6 O# T! N
historically depressed levels.+ A$ m1 @3 L1 D/ p6 D- J0 T
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
4 `: i1 C! ?9 e' R1 k fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, E; X; K& e, }3 @& F. w2 c
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! _- `9 X7 D# N1 y* Fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, M+ ^) z" } I. ^5 X
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# u& |3 Y, i1 u) F6 X) N* p( ^months ahead," added Hogue.2 Q! X, x! |" m. T
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 t" L" l2 n7 W7 Z
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- C4 q; [: a5 @, e& e
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% x/ x& R% t2 S- u! |% b5 W The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
; N8 N' }4 J, U1 Za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; |8 }7 J* G- a8 P' |
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# Q, P9 J% x- h
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 f+ M% g7 c- }) B& ?' O2 e9 I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 y9 w b3 @6 @) Mbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, F: {- Z7 v- l) n; A: X- ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented( k& L+ r1 g- A% S& }& y- B3 k% a" Y
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
; F- ~, t o$ g0 C6 j! rcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# m# ?# p& n) o$ ?8 v2 W
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, D, w; Q! r( I* N b5 M3 P
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# y8 _: C1 I. y/ a4 I$ x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.$ X# _0 h4 q/ C) u" y/ d/ M
8 d# y: |# g; b" g1 O# _) B <<
h8 r5 q: {9 ]2 w! ?$ [+ G+ w; B1 b" _ Highlights from across Canada:/ `% W' w8 }/ m! \+ b2 u0 G. Z$ w
8 N" {0 y* |9 J6 E# G1 W. [
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has- r: u) d& `& |' b
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing' [& W4 H, P6 [, ]. p
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 Y5 g+ p9 W- i only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! n; X7 G4 G: D8 i$ h since about the middle of 2007.
+ C9 k3 w3 V5 y& F5 U1 e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, Z' W: g7 ]: W
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' j) M: H- I' |) L6 G+ N; a
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, b; _: ^2 V% w5 K
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 k& ?/ t$ F: b# [ ?
poor affordability levels.
( c4 V- k4 f! L! K3 k - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% [( c7 R& S2 v3 g3 \& T( P
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 ^4 g( t& k* L; \" I, W
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 J% |, l8 d0 L$ k+ g3 F# {& f- d Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; Z2 ^. Z# x1 F5 ?3 `
minimize any downside risks.* o$ o* Z4 [* a. y" Y- Q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 N$ ]4 X) {" q% ~8 s/ G
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 i5 s5 e- R) C+ f; m3 X; J unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# W' s7 Y3 A4 b" y8 _# w R 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 M3 f6 c+ G7 _' u
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 _* |3 C \* p/ }/ |8 e
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
5 J# i* k+ B6 O Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus" ^/ p1 l4 g) G# a1 H y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# s4 P6 J3 Y0 D8 A# t' y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be/ I4 w4 k' }' k5 k
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* u9 J% k2 Q3 C& A* G+ l, e modestly in recent years.
3 p% h1 i+ a% N6 Z. ^7 L - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the# m; ]' Y& T0 T8 f+ x9 ^6 |. |2 {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ S9 k/ M6 f$ ]' Y" i9 ?$ H, \ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward8 j7 m) g+ T8 Q! o1 i3 \
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
+ e7 x( ~) g% {0 X( }3 { following two years of deterioration.
( H/ {: N, H6 Z- M" \ >> |
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