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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, p# K7 @0 J' J$ [) G( A4 ~" h: p& t TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( i! U7 c0 g% G7 H6 Q# j, K: u
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 `3 z0 @% X7 J2 u# q; H; d
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- H4 M" f! g- E6 n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" P ], a6 R- R" j "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% B6 f' L7 P" G0 [; y2 [( fsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
* w' r8 ~: P3 X1 x0 v# vimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 ^) Q6 I$ Y7 r9 Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 k8 c8 I- N# R- f ]- }7 P RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 B9 h" j* O' j' s7 P5 K* {worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, X5 Z% U: c, f( _1 \' p+ x
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 W, o/ G! v! Y, l3 ~7 d' Wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.& I, o/ M+ A6 ~5 o) P6 I8 ?, T
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 ] A( A! P9 Z$ \$ W
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, y R& l8 w1 x$ Dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# r( D5 l1 Y1 q ]0 h
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' K- `5 }8 H6 {( p# z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 r$ k A4 F( Y s6 _ u& Vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 f0 L' u# k5 y% q3 k3 r: Z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" u0 t! Y( x9 L. M8 E( Pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! H @7 A& V. C3 T# vthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, R8 {! z* i5 O$ n' b% E
historically depressed levels.
/ h) e( p V) c6 j! P0 ~6 T$ o Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 T3 `' u U- }
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House" A$ W# A0 ]: P8 w! ~, A* O, E6 g
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the) H3 @3 P9 H) O) f( t7 ^3 V8 \
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% n0 e4 F2 T! w H! y( L Y4 Xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 }( X* H9 [9 u' Z
months ahead," added Hogue.
+ }/ K) R6 @ Q( c" ~1 X RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 `# F" N1 `( ]
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: H' G% @# Q- K7 S% f v
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.! b# s1 h9 K9 u2 n0 }9 C
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& S- P: |7 I: z s4 Sa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these& W7 ^! O0 b4 J# C9 k, x
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& ~; d1 T& Z2 H5 M8 ^. r
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 \3 U( M0 S7 r! p7 ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 \4 }: P& G5 w: J7 C' Z& \' \
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 }. O9 n2 f8 t. Z. O0 w
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; M5 V# ~+ S; |" l
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 m8 T) Y" Y4 a3 Q5 E6 T8 Kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 E9 f( \" {0 ?) W; w! c( H# nFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 d$ I6 p6 T J3 D
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" r+ t3 Z+ W1 \# m1 q/ G- Tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% t+ G" {4 ]6 S4 J' y7 S
2 h5 O; d2 v) s <<& @2 O. \8 o5 B' M+ @+ N5 a5 i, k& J
Highlights from across Canada:" F3 H* i+ M# `9 f3 L; S
! F4 g4 `4 V2 { A t - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( X4 }( x3 a( x$ D, M) B" r
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 O$ ?$ y1 W2 M4 n$ r, J home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound2 d- i/ a# b. j; E# `, A2 q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 h8 f3 ^, X- y4 ~; g
since about the middle of 2007.
- ` o3 Z" t+ O( L* [0 H - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 N) f- n+ }/ j* b3 G
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 d, k1 _: g- e- h, b. U decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, y: i. c- a: L6 O* T, y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
M- N& g/ T5 C+ L8 Y* W poor affordability levels.
2 p" l7 A8 U/ q+ P4 p$ v8 i - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 Q+ y! S5 |! q' N* I, h vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 y. u( }9 x F$ Z prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, p" H. h8 ^: H/ F: x2 P4 X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( A8 U1 E: X ~- y( ?, z/ F" D
minimize any downside risks.2 N7 ~- K* s0 p5 i c1 F
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market8 H( J. F5 R/ w) P0 N+ O+ W
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 j+ Y$ }3 N) x. t+ Y ~6 d# T# S0 Y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& B! D+ w p8 y6 T 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 }1 b; r/ V* g2 z- Y8 T& X- u: L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.# {1 d) {/ j* V# R
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# b/ H/ G6 u, I% m! R& s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( \* g7 G( r8 |" [9 M5 Q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 z1 o7 f; t7 x
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ ]* z. E4 y4 i1 e' N% u5 h2 ~ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: I" o& Q& r5 a/ i {/ l
modestly in recent years.
! g" h8 V% c% p! m& b N. h# z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
[5 t4 Q9 e! l3 q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 Y% `. k/ r' K+ |% H7 p
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 p. p. }% l! L8 |. ~- _ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! E0 w4 h t7 {: n+ Q# s$ E following two years of deterioration.
* o0 Z4 u! X, B/ H9 W >> |
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