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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: _3 D0 U+ Q8 N9 k. D! L0 ], j TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 W0 n# _& f0 Z& p# N) n
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 {$ }/ ]* J5 a8 J/ B: K0 y9 W7 I
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: H) L8 ]4 a" e L5 ~. t9 t. l" E. h
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, U6 ?0 M6 s8 C2 N9 R1 i5 o "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! @9 }2 L' {4 y! G- e0 {$ wsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. @' m5 K5 P. M, u* o( g/ jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) D Z2 G9 ]7 ], H: l
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ K- D+ i. S3 a1 q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 S- X z/ l* M9 [& J
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, Q- C/ Y% U4 k1 D
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 ?7 N6 C* E6 _4 }4 rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# O0 K' d; ~3 ]
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 a! y+ g: e& E( l
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; h+ Y7 y" E- i/ w
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
/ N. v- N5 b0 _, r6 a/ [Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 k* o' W" O" B
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" T1 A- {: l, n
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 T6 v9 p0 q" N
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ T8 K* I, r6 Cmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ N0 Q5 l/ M1 \. Gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& L0 U( v2 l( d7 L& shistorically depressed levels.+ Q" G& Z9 W) }7 i1 R. x
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost c: F+ [; d# m2 Q# r4 s
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 N1 K, w B9 F6 tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% E" V/ P G6 d; B% _* yhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% k$ c1 v7 L6 I3 |# R) r
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, b& s& x% X# {% L" \months ahead," added Hogue.
; J- z6 V1 }; d9 ~9 M0 Z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) i' i3 ~2 ]9 S. a; d3 J) gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' y6 ]+ [$ _' n" c0 h
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 Z7 P+ G# t8 \ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* Y l2 s# M$ r9 F3 u- D, u+ e
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
- s1 [3 K3 l8 m2 L2 W& [3 Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( G; h2 X. u/ A( b% S/ t
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
0 [% B8 Z) L+ B The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 e/ k o/ ?0 q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; P9 |! l& V8 N" B' U- _
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 ^! V% Y) a4 W) [1 |/ Oincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* r& ]1 y0 b% h, W' ^, ?% V
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
5 k2 l# h4 u; h- c& d& p2 ~For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership& f* D9 v" z7 |+ l7 {
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 507 {+ H. Q, c8 D9 [( q4 r3 z: Z* a3 k
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.* q! W d) {* i9 w7 i+ u" Z
0 A- H/ p- s8 E& U( b: C
<<# D& ] t$ w% u3 @ S# |# M" m" O
Highlights from across Canada:/ i) u8 F# q+ _
6 L# G2 O4 G# y) O7 X
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
, ?4 i% v% ~; p: U* K# D/ F6 U4 M intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! b) J+ J; M9 y2 ^8 b, ~ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 D" h0 _: S% }2 m
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. y: U' h O- {" D0 O. M9 l* j$ r since about the middle of 2007.7 T6 h5 [; y, g0 O
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* Z* j/ _, z& o) S' k$ n
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& A% c0 J, R1 q4 ?
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 J4 \% {/ n$ G% G/ ^ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ a: U* {5 v8 x" P3 v; l" m' t, a
poor affordability levels.6 Q9 I; R7 F! U2 r
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. V# [* g. z8 }; n" g# e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
1 p4 l. ^5 e' Z3 P: l) C prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 R0 u2 _$ h X5 e0 U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) N/ p( J9 N8 k6 \1 M8 N5 r minimize any downside risks.3 o% r9 J% _( F7 ?# |2 `
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
1 f$ i/ s% X0 R conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& p3 p; r' g/ ]! S! x) Y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' R. w! L N3 o* Z' J1 T7 F& l
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 V. Z5 X, \- z" L9 ~, X" _" i u9 I& o being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# t4 E( d* W) b" P. z$ }$ U, T - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
( S4 U; ~! A: x! I0 @ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus d+ D5 N: T3 I9 m
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ ]$ T7 t- ?# T
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ \; Z" b4 k( Y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" `4 |, l4 T) d. A( O' l) O: E" v9 L modestly in recent years.
6 N8 y; X4 `% T- c - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 o, O" [; b8 g& T% v
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 R7 R# s# Y) ] t/ }# Q9 @4 O
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
3 m# Y* h$ X2 W: |+ _) \ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 l+ E# ^( m$ I3 ]$ k& M
following two years of deterioration.* u& ^. a9 z& b
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