 鲜花( 34)  鸡蛋( 5)
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Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.+ I& @" K5 S% W N( ^7 M
! _4 O% m+ P4 I. QIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one./ F/ q7 U3 {$ B' e+ R9 R
: D. J- j9 y2 t- E; j"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
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As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans./ ^ u4 t) a1 L W! w) S6 c
. d* m( b- ~, ~6 D7 M- O"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.% @) f+ W% C! g
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"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
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3 M* u3 W7 K6 vSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
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: J4 [0 \" V# e1 F& ^$ rTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
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"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."0 |0 e" l( e# u/ c! I9 b4 ]8 L
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当然,历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉,现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.* x) j6 R6 d- g& `' p6 h
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦,没看到,抱歉。
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[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ] |
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