No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
9 }; }/ P1 T7 F5 ~
% E: Z  }$ x1 r+ l9 z; Z* P* VIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
3 O: F' I- T, ~' ]( _+ d
6 ?' T5 N/ }& c& D( k"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
' V' {  _/ o! x3 R7 q8 P' B
# Y/ ]! J: K" g! S. T, @. `As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
5 R$ w7 i. y# g
" S7 a0 u6 R  I3 b# W' i) I"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
% u- C5 W; i- c
/ b" A/ D3 h; }& }"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.

7 b9 q' Q6 ?5 ?* W& q3 x2 @"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
, i7 r& Z1 M. q- Q% ^
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]