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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
' `8 G' W! k0 R, Z: z! W+ T$ c; Q# M/ \% W+ E
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
* v& N9 Z8 r: x3 ` TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US# T. H) l! [9 `8 O4 M1 G7 A
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern0 Q" _* C& _0 M7 I& L4 a1 _
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
$ p3 c9 K7 h5 B0 dTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
. N2 x. M5 s* q! H8 q- Zand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more' r7 b6 k* e! n+ |( t! c! K
upbeat.2 _$ ~4 s! W ]* l! |& p
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
% T8 O$ C7 E( z$ D9 L+ J' I2 Rannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects* [3 [, S( g+ i M) Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
) D) J# ^% e7 `) o( r7 x- ~* oestate experts, including investors, developers, property company1 ^" H/ \2 h* D7 a
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
9 i' {+ A8 q/ COther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world z' e# W2 X* C5 \" w: D/ j
including Asia Pacific and Europe.) x9 ^* d! U9 o! f# a1 d: e0 j4 W
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian. J0 T5 V: Y# q' U! y
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment) p2 b k L4 j2 m" z q
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
" D# q4 S& [! x6 c. V, E' Jbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
$ Z9 N" p% V7 \& c# \' |highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
; R* A6 X) w( ]# T, m, M According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the( m8 q: E; f5 ~* s
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game2 [* J- Z% w. T3 N9 D" M$ K: x
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
% d1 v1 O& u7 premain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
$ ]# j( z7 X) vcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be) R2 m8 `4 n2 ] q/ g0 @
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
3 x# a( S/ V) y- Y( n The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian. W. U Y# n H
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
' e3 G0 X- D9 S8 t" S4 L; Icommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
1 T) i4 n& C1 y) G' O+ s8 ` Wdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country0 K, ?, Q. B/ _& T# B
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
$ r# c# o0 ], F6 X3 odevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
" u6 @) S# U( L" w* K1 K2 X# ]9 V2 presidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
3 |% w# `; r* v- H( c1 rtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and, h; b3 u7 Z0 K" g1 u7 S
single-family housing looks overpriced.
9 _0 ~9 G' q/ h8 r# r Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
: s3 a S8 k1 `) J etenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian4 A2 M# K! n: _* s
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
5 X6 p$ h" r h1 Ihigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
6 u1 z. w0 `4 D$ Fnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,1 r* @* X% }# W, U
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental% W9 ^* }: a* D
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary! z, _' V$ V/ l; L% e
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing4 r" a' U) E; @ V9 P- j7 O* d2 C& \
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
: v& [$ H( e& b9 Z" K& Mthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
% m4 B! C' c, z3 c9 Z9 y2 p' _in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.5 X2 B0 k( e* Q% h; `5 Z: P) C" S
/ b% u3 ?: G6 R# q Canadian Markets to Watch
* e3 h1 c, G- x% v+ i5 e4 C# ~3 t" L6 k: b4 ?. e! b
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
$ B( h. @3 }! j+ I5 z3 S7 acities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour1 t/ B% e6 f: I" {7 U. E4 W* {
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
3 d/ D; U& }, Zinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
) s1 l1 R; J9 q* Y' ]! Jdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical! }+ ^" j! w" |0 Z1 L
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
& D/ [- }/ H( ^3 Owest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment- f. B' r3 u7 C z9 N, }$ j
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
2 p0 a. K$ R3 f( e; u: uwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
5 W; Q& w& m! w( w7 t9 o% @/ j( z' cToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high0 c8 |& J* w: m% Y6 @
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
W& d3 ]) t5 X, @/ M
# ]$ y- X' O. ?6 R3 C Calgary/Edmonton. S- ~7 L5 C) k( G& E7 e$ g) d, G
! @3 _# V' H3 E- {: Y
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one- X* _+ _4 }$ i# Y& R
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
6 Y% g/ q+ w8 M0 P* lbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,: {' x! y! c5 r* S. t
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
6 T( c+ e" l, m0 t* dFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale7 X* t% {" [1 o- c$ Q
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the! f& @# A1 I0 S1 u7 O
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
4 r; x/ E# C4 c0 S) B U& Nstrong, this market will continue to do well.
, h% D- V; U: c; ?) L' ~* ~! E, S5 [5 C1 I4 _
Vancouver9 g1 v( L& B$ o9 ~
8 J$ C, _5 L2 \/ o Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
# G. D& U5 z/ H2 E5 Bbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous2 M; G* E+ c+ M4 x2 }* _ V" a
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the& C. z8 X: c! E4 K% q
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a# c2 L( k% @, Y7 S, v% |
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
3 c0 x" d" }$ xrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
, {# C: e* ~4 nfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%) n3 A5 _! d1 F0 Q6 W
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very2 A: }/ [4 E7 ~ h5 u$ H0 b
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
0 d0 s3 @: J9 Y6 t3 ~* ~4 t" d! N. [8 J' F( X' Y5 r
Toronto5 m& A5 C8 ]" b) d& L
( L* k7 X- O8 V0 z) A$ G Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
4 i: n; w" j" Z* k) F, z Zmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
& W! o; ~ ^9 K$ w6 t% ^8 Urelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
+ { X: K' q* j/ u7 o4 Cindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
2 m" ^9 I1 C* v: YThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
8 r# G7 h$ ]" c8 Ffeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
, Y9 K( s. l5 \( G) V% lApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.$ i' r/ P, f) v
8 I7 G# H5 k0 Y; q3 j
Montreal
/ `9 s) [% }. w7 D" w# q2 |! s) f" z9 q# Z x3 Q
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
6 s9 S. y! M% agrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
. ^$ D5 e7 A; K0 M; }shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
2 }4 L/ [# ?" U7 \) a# SCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
) J7 [; d5 K' }& s% m3 wsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors( N3 |1 L( e3 S. t
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
" I8 R. H) i- U( |! g0 Q7 P7 k: w* I6 u2 P1 h
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
9 d [ W% r/ @. a# X8 Oinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
& k, t( ^" x0 omarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos) n' m [+ b3 a- o! y$ U& _8 K
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
- }2 M n+ G- V, Goverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current) b$ h! `- x/ R! I: F$ z
prices."
h# W( V8 V2 _! R A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
- t5 p+ }' D# U# ?www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.5 x1 f3 F+ J4 m9 C
( c( D' e' F* B, H6 S About PricewaterhouseCoopers$ E0 H8 M7 y5 k/ Y. g; \8 y
; u, s1 o$ M7 X! C; s6 ^$ B PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
* i9 @) I) \; f: T1 Ztax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its: Z$ x0 y8 d6 N/ C/ i! I
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries5 B$ F* W/ D z3 B) O" m
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop; t1 b% Q5 Z' ~5 p- o8 v4 f
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of( w- _# F/ `% ~) c% d: S6 K
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
. t, U0 @; [1 q; U! b9 trelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
& f. q5 W0 ] k- F4 Ocountry.( k9 q) F( b- A6 M9 d
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario d( B; T4 ~" X! ?
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
' ^: Q% q% [! h' B% LPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,2 h$ P0 i3 x# ~9 K1 C. z( X
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
( o) S9 s! E6 z4 ^
; U; C, u) u0 y$ D; r8 P1 a) E5 z2 q/ d About the Urban Land Institute u( `+ d y! T/ U
$ B; L, \' a" I! g& m! L3 [ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
" ?6 \) q( G; w# R6 U* |/ ~research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide5 C' f5 h, Y8 l# \
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating# x0 e2 J9 |5 ^2 b+ w$ v1 C5 F
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more& U* L0 \& _# g8 r3 }
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development. }2 ?; s6 R# ?" ]0 M( ?* q& [
disciplines.' g7 {% u5 `+ q" I( {
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.6 x* H1 v0 E% {& I" R7 N
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
, \. b$ a" v4 w/ q* ~3 f% D OCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is. P5 J4 G3 U( v7 W" A6 H9 a6 s
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be4 z! _! K9 B/ s* o
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,' ]4 k7 f+ r3 r+ |; `; Y7 }1 S
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
8 @% G* ~% ~# e$ ?" r# bHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,4 _0 d& n# s4 Q& g( v
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
! `' S, e6 ]9 e# f0 E- M" @call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
9 u- W2 [$ ]( jthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.9 l# D) }1 X3 U9 ?9 [
& |$ R( Y% w3 V8 S9 ?9 s! z: z9 L+ E
* j1 D2 P' E$ V8 w# v1 ^' b# t
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
. d7 h c: S' X, x(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
. H2 D) R) R& M, `http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
8 Q% D9 n2 N% }) O; v3 Q# A+ ` |. } q2 M2 [, f( G. X/ C3 V
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