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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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0 p4 I u) e5 ?. tDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
, Z3 L5 J, \ r% F+ u6 ]2 Y! L TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US5 B$ h& z- f, c* a8 m L7 A) X
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern" I( U( S) ]/ P' g" h$ Z' i
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
3 k0 `3 H# p$ jTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
3 H8 N7 _$ p* F, }) N+ l- Z4 ]2 Hand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
% C) V! E0 s9 l) F# M4 d; vupbeat.8 d1 i7 a- }) I, q: m6 l% f' _4 b
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded& ~/ {& U3 ^; t: w+ H
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects8 o( l7 H* b. l( R9 R1 z7 H# V
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real6 P# i5 h6 ]8 @% _8 ?" q
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company6 o9 ~, A9 l: x# M% u. o" P$ ^' @/ @
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.% R# y6 {0 [- F v8 h0 g( V- I
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world$ G$ \# \' k/ R( u1 f" A
including Asia Pacific and Europe., X* s$ B& `$ \
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! E) \, `" _/ r. f8 w. ?1 LReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
% c ]6 J3 u, V4 E: e, ]3 p1 }environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to) f6 P/ W' h3 l1 w+ w
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record) _! S% m/ k, S: I8 @7 E
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
% T, n: c( s) B, |( i According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
: e; o# L( ~4 c, Fborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 G& N* f; S! W' q# S$ _
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey5 E* @% k' ]5 T% M; o- _
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US1 e, m0 J" o. R- I
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
1 n/ N& j0 s6 L9 W8 `very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.: e1 U Q3 p) b# v$ }4 I7 W2 v! H
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian' y: s( y) D j: V& E
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
8 M( L( d9 w- L/ Ccommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
0 p1 L! h' P; t: g/ I& y: y. ?development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
+ r) n* y4 z t$ X! r) r: u3 uespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
5 U# C, l9 v5 o mdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The2 P* s9 `' H) _. M' k- c
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to6 L8 K- @: J! |. u- t
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and( ~( ]3 I! q$ n7 _# g: Z
single-family housing looks overpriced.' Q6 O$ K8 i; L9 D
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with/ ]: H9 V7 i3 N3 V- O
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
) m6 R0 a7 J, O$ t/ vmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push, f0 K i4 ?+ u
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
7 `0 N, ]6 M, f5 f; Y; cnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,8 u+ x" ]3 M; w" V2 n c, Z* H+ u
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental1 Q9 l+ A: n% V0 L) J1 C& e% g
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
# } k/ _- {3 |% @; Ewestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing3 y6 m; z: G& ?0 {! |
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into% O& T ?% x9 ^, f6 L
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development W& Y4 k9 q- j) G: t: F# `/ f5 h9 g
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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; g5 ?6 n. b$ n* a0 H) b+ E/ W Canadian Markets to Watch
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r$ ~4 C) S2 J$ T The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
$ c* }! O- B5 y3 N/ {- ^% p4 Ocities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour$ _) j0 }5 Z+ c$ h+ c" _
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back7 i' z( ^! c. K7 A* w7 `9 z9 S
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
) i) M* t: \1 @# o$ {downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical) T4 h2 w* g8 e: l+ b% ^
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out# G+ Q' g. v* r
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment* F+ q4 ~# w. B
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain- @5 D8 p4 O0 q# j! V, H9 v
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.% r9 P$ X, g) o2 k
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
+ Z% G6 \& z+ e" m9 x( iratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging." ?7 C6 O$ Q) K9 y8 l' L* {
7 |$ E7 \3 ~1 w3 W( s3 E Calgary/Edmonton" f7 M- P ?5 `, L
1 g; B: y/ k$ h! H, d. [ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one- x+ h( d, I/ E& K
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a4 j- t9 Y' G1 d/ m! A- H% G g
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
: ~) d9 d- p, d$ B: L# A6 ^48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.4 O8 U- h2 O' ~8 M+ f9 V
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
3 _! X& U9 o4 w4 U2 I) wHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
5 F) v% ]( {. O& aCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays; Q3 _. g1 i- [' A5 N! }& E
strong, this market will continue to do well." v& ]+ n9 b/ S* o, l: W# C/ U5 [: L5 c7 R3 ^
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Vancouver2 ^6 j1 Q0 l: u& R* ^% {2 b
0 E) |. s5 \$ f& c Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is" u4 d' [5 ?# q+ s0 n- W
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous8 @1 |7 T) Q+ Q ?2 P, {" F
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
0 F: R2 U2 ^. w& _# Y( w) y6 mmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
5 y1 M8 ?/ ^* T& L( f4 sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy0 B/ E j& W% U3 Z3 K- _3 j
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
a) e+ t/ E5 H3 q% Y! |% Zfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%3 @: F7 Z) K, R
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very& X7 @$ T1 ^1 h. G. g- t
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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3 E4 v m; k) W q Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and) C O3 O0 ^2 @4 {7 S
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is9 m% S9 N4 ~3 x4 l c5 C' c
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
2 [8 Q' m8 i7 |5 c& ?, aindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
9 Z% _) o! W& g$ {6 _6 v* ~Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* ~$ G9 O; G! f
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
# h- Q# e9 J8 [3 c- ]Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys., s/ H/ E( K# p& Y1 g4 d
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Montreal) s @; s7 G1 F: v
1 t; x' g. U5 u# K Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
+ M2 h1 Z6 m r. ?; D$ fgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up# } V/ Y1 {3 e9 q9 c
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
1 ~0 b0 W9 M$ b. VCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
8 L) J3 E* M. m. B- h7 I' G# ?4 d" ksectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors& o$ P' b1 s8 ^9 U
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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& U& d# z, @& l3 l The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years, a: w( b% s# A& E
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy: `6 \! U5 m& H |7 F' |
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos) O- K3 ^ E0 G% i S# Y2 M
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest! d; k6 j7 H9 ]" r! L; ^
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
+ ^+ G! i G O$ R; @- m3 Y$ Iprices."9 F1 Z5 o4 x! R/ K* n
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
% p7 ^" R2 r2 i& i. y- Jwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.: G: K' y# u8 M# ?- U: ]
& E+ v6 g) k7 b About PricewaterhouseCoopers9 ]: c+ p3 S v: L/ ^
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,7 I. j% D4 z4 U
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its3 l% e# _$ L. k5 r& n0 v, M
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
/ P! l. i: p/ X% j2 dacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
: ?- ?$ N9 C" N- ifresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of7 L" E; g c6 ]6 B) w% i! Y
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
7 q. x* O/ c/ [' K8 @related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the! q( T" l7 _5 }
country.0 o8 k/ N" i& s) E
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario6 G5 t) t* ] F4 q( ^
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the3 z) F- f5 e. ?" K5 L3 o- v
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
8 l& G$ s, z2 M* o' c+ Aeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
. z: N; E4 q. o; P! u9 S2 {6 [$ ~+ [+ W7 B' s9 L& }/ |
About the Urban Land Institute
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4 o8 |' F8 F# [$ y The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and: u9 j$ U9 |5 ]" Y8 ], h
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
9 z3 x; x `) S* f0 s) Aleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating D1 U, C: Z9 F( B) }7 a
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
8 D. L3 p: b! d9 V- cthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development* I( a6 ` s+ B: L$ F% ^$ g
disciplines.8 N6 Y u# F% e, V
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada." G/ o- P* Q* U* |) R, c$ t
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District( O Y, L* F; r; V) y5 D
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
@% m$ {4 W1 r8 o7 m$ R/ p, inow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
/ Q. i! h( q j) c+ uhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,; _* ~ v5 n$ l7 j% r2 W
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake( y; t, z$ D' C9 A5 }% c
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ d$ n. @: f! N: C5 s5 l% X, J
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please5 T6 A7 O& S. l! l8 N$ M
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on9 ` C# `) G% [ H. W" z
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 ~4 P$ K' R4 y
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( Q8 G6 v/ E' U) Q' M6 A. ]% u- J" C- }/ b, H8 G' e$ s
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,2 k+ k6 Q) [. k% T
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com0 c. z( d( z9 U' A
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html* X; [3 s1 `# B# Y/ M
$ X, o9 `) S, f6 ?# d+ W[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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