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Attention Real Estate Reporters: & |" L- r8 k$ h! v9 f) A) z8 r
4 k* v0 _$ o3 T2 h" f3 V8 N( v2 r1 jDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
7 `/ q. w; l( K) b5 R" \% N TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US3 O8 O- v) J+ \2 N$ N, A6 T
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern0 g6 D; ~: J/ d& O
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
* s3 G2 R1 t# _( XTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
; x* Y1 ?! L7 Rand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more) @* _! c+ ?6 t0 S0 `* v% N2 @
upbeat.1 ] T! q" M5 K2 l2 `2 U
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
% e( b$ I* y9 T( J9 Fannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects/ e+ O+ b/ p) V. f$ _. T: R7 ~
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real7 A/ P. L4 b, p7 g* v: r
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company1 T8 j1 s) Q: u0 l' ^" a
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.( a2 @2 p) I( C1 {
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world$ G% F+ B' d) }8 b! Y3 K9 T
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
7 n% r" t1 k. _4 J g9 V. f According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 W% J8 a* k1 f4 I5 S+ O) F
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment6 O1 o/ d5 s8 y
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to. ^' e# p* U7 Q3 f
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record4 F* y7 T [9 [, a0 O
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
) q# M. R* Z: S According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the: e& H9 o* U5 [; \4 W7 _- ~
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
0 G$ C) n# a! f X& r( }9 i! [' Yspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey: U9 s4 K. y: P
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US, _, K% }( ^% ?3 z
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
; h8 P! B c9 i, fvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.( B$ {$ }" d$ `8 \1 T
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian) D4 s" `$ n, ]! f2 t6 C
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
1 m9 b. Y' i8 \commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land2 s, ^6 v. t, q9 n* n3 ^
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
! H; d3 l2 r0 i) v9 \8 kespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
& a Y( a* z( jdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The# @! U4 {) t9 n% _2 N8 Q
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to9 x9 I, U' n/ g7 S2 @( F
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and7 O5 x/ h4 p( U8 R& ?2 R" p
single-family housing looks overpriced." W, g3 }% g. W* Q6 K! q
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
2 C: u8 ^( H" s, wtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian% D" O' r1 c9 v6 q
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push8 x" a q+ U8 O# A
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting7 |5 s+ d M9 S7 m- A) O+ ?
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,- g, n* G: G m
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental* ~ r6 b, G" b( n/ D3 E
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary' C# N A! W! i# Y# ^2 c
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
3 X: m) A# _$ c2 ?' c/ C- i7 zshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into Y1 P1 j% V4 w4 f7 e+ R3 E" Y
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development$ f- \4 }/ X0 a; Q$ D0 s
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.& j0 K+ ]8 s$ T/ U" F# Y' _6 g
5 f5 q7 F8 d8 ?* r; H1 X! V
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
# Z" h& l4 I4 Fcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour3 m1 N5 B& S3 z) n- `# E V- F
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back0 U4 o j: b* f, S; O
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in; \8 N( S4 C& A6 ]' q
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( [* s1 F* K5 [" c _* {5 }( Kprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out8 ~! D4 b5 V8 S7 k) N
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
N- P n, T4 Dprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' w& X+ p( v- k* I8 o
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.. D/ T9 \& K; d) |) |4 y
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high: l: U/ }6 }1 a3 b i
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.3 j$ \: z& W* U( F, {$ P5 \' z
0 a3 E. _+ ]1 Z1 {6 Z$ X Calgary/Edmonton
7 n. Q% j, a* b" }; ^( w5 F2 u8 N1 N/ d7 u9 k8 r5 y- M; B% c
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
; f. `; F# a+ O& Xboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a# [' M7 O& B5 ^$ R( Y
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,/ p) t( A5 S0 }. d; m
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
' ~( e( M0 [: B& i3 ]3 RFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale7 {' ]/ \, ^0 ?
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
( P1 y* U2 _1 i n, A0 f7 X& O9 f4 dCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays s9 C+ r' q+ e, j3 Z# u
strong, this market will continue to do well.
. w* o, T, A* z' d! f, n, x' n" @$ A$ |% T0 u! p
Vancouver
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; {1 `1 f+ G$ \ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is3 G2 l6 `& }/ T. T" \, U
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
" A+ }; A% U- B: h' vreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the' K+ \) c# F, g; Q3 e7 M, E
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
. Z- [* |7 t' J" m& j) L% Dgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
" M9 N* \& Y+ S. v) mrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
: ~1 T* ]+ X* ]4 P& ^! ifor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%7 n7 A! ~0 Y, R9 K8 _ t; Z
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very) }+ ~: N. X4 t7 h4 l, V& R" F/ \
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.2 d: K0 Z- B d* u
$ ]- o) H- g1 B' @" ` Toronto
6 w" E; d* D8 u" P( A5 @# V, C+ v( o- L2 I0 l. z1 ~6 M
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and* I( E% _* l- [! U6 w" c
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
6 m- S* Z* x: j. c9 Q+ \relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing/ l7 E s* \0 S8 j; \! h5 g
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# z% N' u9 j W' JThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
) }2 H4 G$ g. @: o/ Sfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) Y3 o6 y2 Q. V# M% n# O9 \Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.. [! H$ G. F1 E* }. m
8 b, D5 C3 v9 W! a" Q" l( `+ D
Montreal
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$ n$ y) R5 H- }: ~/ Y) ?8 a2 ?8 B Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall; c) S8 l; U3 S) h
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up! f! X2 \4 t. U' K
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
" ~; z' b o( v) _5 }! G; [Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate5 [. X1 |9 M H& {& _! X
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
8 g& E( R; g" m& hhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
( }" }& |; s* {include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
% o( e, y$ g5 C3 nmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos4 `" D+ A! I( P* A& j3 k% ~
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
( p6 r! c$ N& D8 b2 N$ voverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
1 A. e( E: Y; A$ {7 X' H( t g. aprices."2 o6 I/ v" Q9 y& B% J
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at$ C0 `( [: ]! D9 I. r
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.+ T, c8 h- C! ?0 ?# h
% `5 J$ S6 s3 N+ T
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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( C: l! c- ]! k* p5 E: J PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
3 J' ?8 }' f ]$ Qtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
) u$ l( [# Y/ Rclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
6 ?* @1 e( ?$ Y2 Z9 c1 Qacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop3 j3 ]9 q# }" Y
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
k8 h( v# n% c) j; O6 Zexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
! M$ m+ w$ T6 [# G4 Crelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
& P3 v# b# D9 {, _9 |' Ccountry.! w) w, h; Z/ r1 {7 d
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
5 G/ g( M0 M8 \' N7 j+ h) {limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the1 K+ V, [7 e7 L8 @+ w9 z S; W8 E
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
' q: Z G( T. m, L; F3 V2 _each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
: q* {3 D# R, Y% S2 e; h( H( L6 J2 b1 `9 ^/ Y6 b* w2 k; O0 K
About the Urban Land Institute* X! Y f ?3 y, g7 U/ I8 u
9 h v+ H% r6 B* H The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and% b+ _, b+ ^5 ~! W' l1 {1 a
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
. Q" L! q+ x- ^1 kleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
; j: _9 B: E8 F# K9 c" Mthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
, H; ]' M" _) H+ s! `) `than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development" z3 @' O$ J4 [, r! `
disciplines.
5 v/ A9 w, n1 E; v The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
0 D7 c$ L) \! v% L) `) U1 I2 [With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District* l4 F9 L& y9 l- e9 ^2 C5 f e
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is1 p* f! s0 }+ b6 h% L2 m, J
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be7 ~2 i# L0 v0 _4 m3 q
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,3 g6 j6 H8 z& l" i# [
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
; D6 A7 b9 I; NHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
2 Y/ u1 M1 {2 t8 _0 S# z5 DPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
) P! B! y! L4 B5 ~% M0 f0 @8 ]call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
2 ]9 c" ^. v* B8 {% Qthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066./ u2 s! j- J5 J0 K0 F) g& ~7 X
3 H! ~* S6 F- R- U$ c
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,2 s; S J3 P) G
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
5 O1 p$ i& r0 \/ Yhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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