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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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8 s, J( d' R; L6 m1 q' p; N6 e ^Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 9 _: a$ W2 V5 r
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US |9 V- {4 k" d
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern6 l: @1 q3 l2 g- P
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging7 m9 Q* B* ~6 Y# z7 f
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
6 {4 k. d1 b6 v# i5 Iand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more$ @7 x* ^! I5 `# j0 K
upbeat.
1 h1 o% L& Z) L1 j7 [9 p R0 r$ J. l Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded( ~: y& D+ m; }( K8 @: {' t
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects1 e) p/ b5 V7 \1 |
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real" B# P5 u. h. ^* @1 `' q
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company) L P! n' n! ~- N$ W' {3 Q+ X
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.* t) m6 _0 H" J$ ]5 H
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world) C: O: F" A( c8 t4 \8 r3 c6 Z
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
% v% ]3 E, j7 y1 N' e According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian2 Z" w6 l6 V. E. Y/ M7 t1 A
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
: b7 @6 N! z& Q9 penvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 V5 d) K0 I' j
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
" D- \; {# J" c% \' |! `highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."3 I% }( T" c, A
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the6 ?2 ?9 U' {/ ]0 l7 N! K
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
0 A1 r( W$ |: N9 |( U: u' kspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
/ H; `# z: t/ U: Y7 k" S6 Rremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US' z H: q) Y7 @$ B; y+ @
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
" F3 g1 P1 Z0 every good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
. x' j; E2 P2 K7 {: Y6 [" S& { The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
" { \! {& G9 ^7 Q4 }5 O7 urespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by; G: x, Y; t' b I6 q6 x- z
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land" I( g3 @7 Z$ x o# j
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
6 m4 }. @/ s" P" E2 I$ f6 X4 Aespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
' q A* U; @% J% \development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
' V- ^$ u4 ^% o4 k5 r& d6 yresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
- N" L/ Y9 @: K5 Vtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
- q! {7 G _+ {7 _6 isingle-family housing looks overpriced.# c% M7 I3 A, D9 M, ~; [
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with2 \3 U- }6 a, E
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian, p8 M4 d- v: x- C' q" G
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push. Q* P( f% [7 o: ~" n$ U) f" J
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting, y9 P- t% i* a' c5 ~$ m
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,2 o; H! f) P5 z0 T3 z8 z1 B8 e/ Y
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental8 K/ j0 d9 j0 `3 T) @
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
2 v% Z1 Z, n( O5 `: l5 s N& d' Kwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
+ L2 o% [, Q. o# f# [9 X5 ]shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
0 g6 [# d" O2 }4 J* Tthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
# M$ z9 L* g3 o9 P* `3 Min other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch" a. S2 a7 Q' n! i
5 s3 i2 k( H" n* O9 Y4 u' S3 n The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central/ |+ q8 I. P9 Y
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
6 b. m0 e: Y4 @neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
+ l% f* e* e7 \into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in9 X$ O% Z# o. B4 V
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical, J. e" w" T. [5 {. G
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
8 t7 f/ E1 a' Y7 q; N2 ~west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
3 h# V8 i% ]" H- M) N8 Wprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain5 f& M2 o; P/ j" l: m
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
/ C7 d q8 _6 H. VToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
: c- s% E4 Z$ S" {) Gratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.' e. P, w- r) _0 u
& F" u7 V: c5 T: _ Calgary/Edmonton! D: q* f8 V8 Y& ~' A; w( y
# g5 m5 e. V/ h& s6 C; U Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one; U( i+ O( @$ e5 i& o" B# V1 Q
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a4 @ s/ t- F6 d: |
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,4 Q6 O+ F( Y5 R+ g( V! E) e
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
& O8 L/ O D3 i1 V# r0 M3 ]Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale" e! y" K. \5 s' P' k1 u. e
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the- ]: r9 z0 `) l5 E
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays, ?+ a1 @% a" ?% S" v' V
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver9 ?; @, X* B; y
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is. Z2 {7 {% y! r. x2 @+ r1 e2 c
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
; A% P2 H9 n! g/ U( w9 V @real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the; m, Y4 K v+ k$ s# X; C
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
/ e* d5 k' Z) Z0 dgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
/ F. U9 \) \, `' Z, W! c( Irecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%+ G! f3 A) c Q5 y% }
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
. {+ m+ y8 p* X& Bfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
5 e1 u, @7 R4 Z/ i" X9 d0 v2 dgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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9 S8 ~" l/ u0 ?4 Y* T. }2 b Toronto0 ]9 t0 l+ h7 q3 _5 ]; v. G- { M
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and' w s! n" D2 E
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
% v: v' i: v: K3 jrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
6 i4 r/ [; U2 K3 A0 ?7 Vindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.. ^. M' E, ~2 u- ?
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
4 u2 E2 W5 E1 [$ u( |* _( |3 jfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and3 E( l4 w$ K8 o7 b' H- H" Z6 j( B
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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6 O$ y- |; z; B& w1 H7 g& k. m Montreal d8 a) Z, Z9 j) R
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
0 Y% w* W/ M4 W: e7 kgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
4 U7 T6 b- b% W3 s" `shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
/ u$ z$ D% t3 O- OCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate" C5 G/ c" h ~+ ~' X) D
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors6 j' x$ E/ E0 v" M# w
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
( \: y$ |5 C" W2 c& S1 _include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy6 L6 L* N' D A' ^2 r
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos: v1 }5 n0 ?. H% j3 L! R, N
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest f+ w" F3 m/ b9 s Q
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current0 n! C2 {6 O4 X9 X, T! `" h
prices."
$ ]2 g3 v: {$ e2 Q3 L3 v A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
/ |. f2 C1 D: C9 Z: h3 o9 |5 p+ gwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers& u+ N6 v* r$ A& n' f/ I
! ^5 I, ]. x; U c+ C" x) _; W PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
: f, p) X) p$ I2 I( ntax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
J1 r' J2 ^8 R8 f, g' h+ ^clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
& Y; P0 }; r4 u: u* }* Q3 S" }across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop: Z, K. ]" F6 S$ ]$ n
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of8 D4 e: _$ C8 D
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
+ V2 j& L; v4 L4 H/ v" krelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
8 h7 j( Z: H2 y L5 a8 |/ p V2 gcountry.* j# ~) N$ i/ Z: u; j: E
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario; K$ @' u1 N) j0 _
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the* W$ R( B0 Q" l' C+ Q6 _
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
4 @! A# }+ Z/ W, teach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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+ b/ i4 k# k, N% ^- [: d$ k About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and: b& U! Q0 [+ m
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
2 U2 |6 ]( }- V- h1 ^7 V+ j, Wleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating1 L' ~" h9 o& Z' A2 W2 `
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
: G% U4 ~4 f( ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development0 P; l/ {" u1 L* e6 h6 P
disciplines.8 s9 o$ p' i$ J- G/ I7 q
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ s3 J# t/ ]1 \% ?With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District$ J3 q2 ?- k6 R2 T) Z# t: c0 c3 D
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is9 [8 Y9 E( i ]/ V" F' q1 L+ N
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be7 q- \$ }2 o# q. _2 C
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,7 Y. ]! x+ l7 D7 @ q
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake5 m9 A R$ W9 k0 W+ }! N
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
* n, N1 Z" A6 {* S4 JPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
6 H) n; [- |) ~" ]0 V6 @& W# |call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
+ Z1 u: j! B- X9 i0 r& h0 D& o* jthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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+ J( N! W2 q' D8 |0 `For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,5 f& t3 N7 y; v
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com4 [( Q- Z) k. t4 Q
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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