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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
1 G- n# ^6 h2 ?3 l9 a$ p3 {
$ k; g9 L* G" }; O% S) m5 N( M' iDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ; ^/ O& r }# G0 D
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
0 J' @! U+ Y9 @1 H& x( icommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern7 ~9 |1 }7 V. \7 ~9 M
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging. I3 w' m7 r! p- D' S
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)1 c5 |/ g O$ @& G( t7 E
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more5 B1 Q; o% H, _. i- `# a
upbeat.* h8 V9 ^ m# ]$ f, \0 x
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded1 E$ q" a% v( I) O4 b
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
* }- v3 I8 Y/ |% linterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
( R2 K8 O6 r l5 A* k! sestate experts, including investors, developers, property company5 W' M0 N2 e' ]1 g" l. A
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.% b5 r3 r+ t# i- C. a
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
- x# _2 R3 b; g1 O. _7 Lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.1 q. W* p1 f' S1 G5 r; u/ p
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
' Y: t+ i' i. n/ L4 G' O% JReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
8 t2 v1 ~" k& benvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 ^% f u' |. I; Q1 N/ K6 R/ ~
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
$ U- C1 r4 t5 c3 t3 k0 n1 |9 dhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
. D$ g9 H6 x( r, P) q According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 n) b! @8 o M: P/ m2 s |border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game3 Y% d9 T$ g+ x' r+ S3 ]
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
: `9 D. X6 H# c5 ^ S3 Vremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US) g" f1 T& r! a
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
. [& o! L' p* @, [( Uvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
* _% L2 a$ i$ V9 v, i The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian( T4 N" N# q& S; H o
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
; D ]; }, H; W; w. ~1 c* icommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
9 z# T( S5 k# ~- x) S# cdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country% h. q7 l; R- d6 P
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating! c" a w6 q3 [
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
4 |/ t4 M2 g' N' m3 @. p1 I7 [: J3 bresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
/ `& e& Z! m' V& btake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and7 H) M; L: W3 T, ~: K1 T
single-family housing looks overpriced.3 F% d; l) a3 q# N) d; p, s- f
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
9 x, A/ x: ?5 H5 `1 P/ otenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
6 h. K4 y1 T" E0 cmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
0 P; n% o9 V- [9 a& ahigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting( H2 [2 k; B! n( t
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
+ n; J; k# B. Vand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental8 |' C/ A8 F: }: |' b( H( A+ B
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
/ H5 ]5 g3 i" J- M/ r4 V; ]western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
2 a5 B- y/ `: J5 Q) u9 rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into8 ]4 L3 t: g9 p+ g N, C; W1 y
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
% |3 i+ R! W) V% L9 rin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.) F( ~, B# @& |
9 V& F% Q6 U( X Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
5 o) q+ p' Y) Pcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
2 n7 R" l. I# w8 n7 t$ pneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
& n) F9 ]# k6 d3 n, y; G7 yinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- K) l* J) k6 C4 |downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
- E! g0 q; e X. Cprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
" E( U/ i' [; G& y iwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
1 F3 O( N1 J i i+ M! ?prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( l) p( b" o* n* O4 Z0 d4 Owhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
9 F! ?- }" x- o9 q4 Q! [5 l; dToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
. ~+ \3 w! F9 k% z& q6 F% jratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.! _# a& {- A% c3 g* f: I
& M% D0 P# ?* B$ z
Calgary/Edmonton$ i0 E; a4 W; a g
5 ~" f" a" z5 \( {+ z V% s6 D* f; K* Q$ g Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one" p6 X5 n( B: f8 R
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
& _6 z. ~- b4 Lbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,- y; V. a4 M5 U n4 R6 `" j% O
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
' {! t( Q0 f6 p/ ~( qFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale+ X) R$ K8 A7 }4 _
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the; d" R6 {. ^ g% E* f4 ]$ D
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
2 q8 C: I' c4 c, q& ?9 L6 t- @' Fstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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4 v& h' f8 }, S. w: F& r* o/ z# w Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
. R5 `6 n; M* q( Qbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
7 N1 W: |% `8 o6 A2 Y4 P8 e% m- oreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
7 ~. o+ @0 T- |1 G0 R3 f+ Qmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
$ F* s1 w+ D; i( `6 d: l0 tgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
3 s) y* B, N, S. Srecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
, l7 |. L0 k( x5 j) t# Afor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%( g) }, G2 o. {2 f
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very: ^1 Y8 K6 o4 f, [1 ^3 H- Q
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
; N% b/ W0 e7 a t& c. |/ a- i9 I S$ f5 {, F1 c$ [ X w7 I
Toronto
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1 E6 `3 {0 |+ j Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
# K6 ^/ \' W( `4 w- dmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
+ s8 k: I' H, E9 G9 D, O0 Y) Frelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing6 e" J- u" H; t! V/ W
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum./ p5 h. ~ [$ k% n4 G' ?1 J9 N
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square( r1 B9 `; X, n4 j3 [
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and& v% @. b! k, X) s
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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3 n. O1 U3 W* B9 D7 ]. G Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
# U" h* b" [6 Z1 }4 Kgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up* H: W9 L# ~) k% j
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
0 F& x! N' Q2 L3 h1 G8 Z2 XCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate+ J: R; e: w7 W9 ?3 v
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
. ?( r0 G t9 xhigher as a "hold" recommendation.: q* i4 P* l2 N/ W* }
. W! C8 ~" b) J7 m- i5 X The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
; c9 g; U( H4 i- binclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
4 f3 F# Z8 f) ~$ _, Rmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
# k5 r) Y7 h: Q, b' bnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest G7 v1 S, m \& O% t6 \0 E2 t
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current. _, W, T2 k& ^4 y
prices."
- P r; `" w- ]4 Y& I% X. S- u A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at- o) h b# D1 M3 U4 u% E. e: B% _
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.( L* c9 M7 E" Y: T
+ d4 f2 O: y/ u About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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6 M4 {! b- F4 d N PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,1 W0 M2 a# L2 N. E# V8 N
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its4 T8 z9 x- Y! d' L3 V9 Y
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries! P# Z& L U9 ^: |) b3 M
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
: N2 |. z4 E/ T5 S8 _/ P) k5 {$ Dfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of) U; Q% K, u0 U" I
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its* ~8 @" o* C. `6 H
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the! Z6 x5 @% o8 \4 g/ m/ F
country.
+ ~( I' B1 d2 h4 X) \ "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario9 \" U& w! T: I- l: E
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the9 K3 i+ m4 O% ^4 ~+ U5 W7 `
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,+ U* a: a+ ?! n4 s+ s1 m8 D
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.4 H- l% K6 z, h+ p2 n) C
% J o' L9 N2 v# T About the Urban Land Institute
5 N) o$ Z3 \2 }/ \/ k' s. U1 E! w" k6 Y9 h# d, B Q
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
: Z1 h5 ^0 U: u7 E" h: Yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide" x0 V' J$ @" ]8 I
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
" n+ C5 I/ ^8 z7 r% k+ l5 Uthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
G& ?+ K. @" O" E; S6 R$ n$ @ Mthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development( G( a( m& S* m* }
disciplines." b9 T6 ?* n- E1 P6 R$ h. R
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
; r; L5 A% ~: b5 Z. j$ s0 hWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
. G" j% G9 d/ k9 M5 J' Y8 L9 hCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
( Q7 H% O: \- I# Snow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be5 l: F+ U# \; [, @9 s) A9 j
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
( t& o$ \ D- Y5 f' Y2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake: u' p2 G& d1 E e& k
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,7 @7 d- d* e) J
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 M! J" D- b. s2 y
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
' Y9 X6 ]% P8 a- P% ~9 n. U" `) qthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.0 x m) `- \6 Z$ Y% k9 ^/ C G3 Q
2 M4 q, g5 G1 V' m5 y4 g6 ^" F S
/ K0 K, {# @9 v- \1 Z3 s: |For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
u( I D* K- q(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com( V4 @8 q+ {; g' v9 N) Q# r9 x% T1 y
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html& n7 q- h, O+ Y8 z O
$ p5 C1 s- S, g# F9 Q[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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