Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
1 Q% g2 W; H, lNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
- ]5 F  L0 \4 g3 q
- Y; C+ c4 ~0 T/ S9 EDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
  \  T5 I( r# I; H" q
1 _5 O8 B& \* P1 p8 j* o+ n* e9 |( ISep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
! g1 h9 T9 v+ }: [
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
410,000
320
6 V) I! O4 R1 A' n" d" D 28
/ m/ S8 k+ Q  L; s+ t 31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
6 }) B# L$ h- | 442,817
' M, R) c% J( s, H 409,000
328
22
38%

May 2007
NA
2288
7 p0 Y5 V8 ^( I8 H6 }& _$ Z 1261
451,216
415,000
/ x# O$ @0 }0 c" k% g, q, M 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
1 b- a/ x5 `% \# m) X2 W4 c' \* g; _鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
2 X, g- w4 {8 L* N5 ~这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
! k+ Q8 I" z' f. i. |& B( B9 Q存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 l# |' {4 ?( W6 g- i& z. e, X" Q鉴定完毕！

" ]5 c+ l4 H4 W# G
; l( N. J8 n8 ]  F3 f用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
7 Y, m: j2 b5 W  S' h* z" \3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

8 _1 |+ ~1 ]% h& b3 K& E
- p. S, d* j; |( W. h* X0 `3 w; y

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

- c. Y' E, J# k6 ~

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
% G  Y0 X% M1 N. D' k! q) L' m8 W" Rgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
9 k9 f  Q: j  H- x3 U+ iIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
: S2 {0 z# f4 i( y1 Z9 ]# XIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

+ c. {4 o5 p) D  }* z2 W0 m+ L
% W& b. T! L1 D4 J; Z0 wI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
  l$ b  ]% T- o% j' p6 NMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
2 I0 ~1 _) b4 ]% W4 L2 S- @. F6 hIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ }7 T9 ?0 f* [! X2 e0 z( iNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
1 i* G: m! |% f' {& V6 N% z8 a6 H
3 r6 ~. T# e$ n$ `$ t8 X8 M
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

# y% a( u! j# U8 a* c

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
' p  Y1 b& x* ?) m; j/ F1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
3 d) I/ `* q: H2 I2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

. n# V$ k' o, v3 g下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

) E1 o, ]+ l, O( D9 ^9 o' r$ v, ~

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。