Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
$ j% m1 {5 H! c0 F( _MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
4 K/ Z7 C8 |' o  Q- J3 TNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
8 \5 b, h* E" {
4 c+ C) t- `5 vDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
4 s! Y( o; o& P2 c6 S6 g: [
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

/ w+ [4 O8 O. w) W. _Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
" T6 j( M5 V% \5 t+ o
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

, F7 I, D' j4 x8 o" H: Q$ dJul 2007
0 |* P3 t/ T5 y( m9 r NA
( y3 j7 z( s8 N4 O  ?  T' t1 \$ f# O 2328
- t: j4 l; e: [" ] 717
. Q1 @9 {. i4 ]  O; ~; |$ n3 ^' ? 442,752
0 O6 _# _# l$ k  j; V( D( _ 410,000
320
28
8 ]. E: t- t# V8 G/ c8 Y0 _- i 31%
8 b; U6 g' {0 l2 k4 a
" X4 m! `) w, E' VJun 2007
NA
; f7 O9 x/ w3 O$ g 2661
. g8 _0 Y9 j8 r: Y 1011
442,817
# \% r" i; ^6 D3 D" n 409,000
( p8 [* I8 ^, ?" W 328
( ~4 a* {' E' d# l8 e4 w 22
38%

- {5 f/ N- c6 G4 b& p2 [# R7 A5 DMay 2007
NA
2 ]) E. n5 b6 ~) m8 _- c$ A 2288
1261
451,216
1 q- K. p, j  l 415,000
. u9 l$ ?3 F& h" \ 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
( j, T, M: w+ j存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

4 O( O% _$ ^2 z
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

  R' o: _) I0 j- m6 B9 o( V
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
4 a/ S4 p$ e2 `6 r: z9 ]
- m) s3 J1 t/ z8 E新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
; ?6 x- Q$ i  ^2 u- O
: V$ D+ ]2 C+ c' y0 q3 N+ z  D/ ^就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

6 a! a# D$ M9 p% M9 T* R这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

1 d4 O; G& H( w- r7 ~: f

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
1 r7 C+ o" z& u6 ~# v) B$ v+ ?Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

$ g4 e6 [2 k. O3 b" D

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
3 J8 ^* E: B# b# p- BIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
+ x1 O- t9 d! ?! j: ]0 EHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
% N8 D! V5 Y$ a* Z2 z, n8 zgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
1 t  d( E. ?: {. zIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
$ b- m" F  A1 \" P' oHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

" R6 I: D% n1 E! C3 DI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
4 V+ E( ~" M) T( r& m5 sIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

) I) |. k  H9 D! D5 k/ K0 M6 B" {
7 f* [5 Q! B/ e, Y; sI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
1 w( R8 A" B6 Q' ?4 y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
' M( `* i4 v  u  T5 m& e

* R) }" I* R+ y# @# l7 [3 g3 J) e
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。