Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
+ J& D9 E7 B8 R( w4 XMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
7 D; i' D" H: ^
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

* ^" q  j8 n5 m. x$ d% A$ `8 fAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
7 E9 j) Y3 C2 ?( _4 W& }5 I8 r
Jul 2007
  u, U+ y! B, I9 @3 n NA
+ n& b: F! |1 D* c1 |3 K 2328
4 {% L0 c# w& c2 N6 D/ n 717
* M) t# {7 M+ o 442,752
' U4 m6 f- k$ f3 m8 O 410,000
$ e. b" p) j8 `& w* r; e0 Y1 Z 320
, i! F4 j5 f- n9 q  a7 a/ _ 28
# {& N& u4 I6 K+ O$ A* M0 Q3 b 31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
6 K! I4 l6 C) u/ M' m 1011
442,817
- [* F* S; ^$ w) ~" V 409,000
328
22
1 E" R) J! O$ [4 X1 S 38%

* a1 @# ^% z9 x) h7 o* YMay 2007
6 P, }0 H5 Z) {$ }) c$ S NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
7 x# G( v. o* T. I  b) q/ Q2 @ 322
19
3 ~, G# @% V- Z0 R6 r7 ^7 H 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
, `; T  R- P' p0 j; K2 i# y% B) C8 _鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
3 Y% q" e/ p7 l' R+ [这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
# W% m, C1 U: e/ S3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
$ @3 n5 _- a0 e5 x& q; v3 M) Z存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' [  X. h' v: V/ N6 H6 j鉴定完毕！

% x' _  _. u. G  @1 N# m
4 J; v7 T. J. |呵呵，太不专业了吧。
  K' A5 I( n9 m& O- f
; _% J# ^( A  G5 h8 z' J6 m2 p' j+ f新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

; q, D! M# e8 r就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
; f$ V( G3 e5 b5 V8 \
: c; `. M& @( y4 p5 r这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
' N: e( N+ m$ H( NDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
, j3 l7 a' R+ Z5 Y& rDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
' M# h! N$ }: g7 f' C! H* {" N2 LHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
" W9 {3 Y& J9 Q$ P" F# J( T- G' wThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
, M: e& {# }% M5 pIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
# o) b8 f# e+ \3 o% c7 uIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

4 a8 M$ b& r+ iI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
& n9 Q: |" _8 Q& e: N2 ?; yEdmonton Single Family Home
5 b+ C9 m( u- p1 r& FMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
6 H, B% [$ i9 {% a$ Z' C; jIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
* I, }4 g. K% s% ^' d. LNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
2 A% h4 w/ z4 f( |9 a# I
1 O, u) y( R5 s3 t  ^  b" X- M
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
0 p9 a( \& X8 o' Y1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
* e. f( G% T$ h" V+ @  v; v. t2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
* T6 j4 H5 t  e' W# t6 l3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

# Q( C: |& n4 v/ s
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
, y( v( q! G$ R
& Q3 ~3 `: y! g! ^

1 e2 G  [+ b3 ^  B" a3 j只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。