Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
4 g6 ]- u  W5 n9 z7 ^- Z& LMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
9 r: Z" V1 p  g$ F* |9 R* x
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

" U5 M- }# U# G9 |7 }Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
8 F& A* [2 ]% X; Q0 O& B
' i5 Q! H# ?% ]Jul 2007
& X1 \7 R8 z1 X! q4 l/ k NA
2328
717
0 r; H' H8 N, x  @ 442,752
3 c$ G) M* A4 V- l 410,000
2 d" Q  F' E0 f& G$ |, A! u 320
* P9 e) q4 r4 f) ^  E 28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
( Z% F7 k( D/ N 2661
1011
/ ?4 w$ t. f2 F" l; M& t( g" S 442,817
409,000
' C, S) o; Z$ `+ r+ w- } 328
! k- ~8 F1 Y" |" T 22
& ~* N5 f  j8 U/ o1 F7 s 38%
4 J  r8 ]3 @2 I5 N/ H
May 2007
NA
, w, j0 ^. x% l$ N$ P 2288
( G7 ?) G1 I# J! D 1261
# i, d' n5 r" H' X8 [/ i 451,216
415,000
322
; ?0 Z# ]) d" E+ r" a 19
& L2 p9 W$ d) s& `: w3 R& i) S. T# t9 R 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
! _3 E9 v6 Y/ k0 @7 _6 n& c% ~  E这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
% {# V( n4 P- \. Z& D7 X0 b) h鉴定完毕！

7 H7 g7 y- F7 U( c6 P1 |5 Y+ {
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
$ \5 d1 g# j5 d- l, N4 w存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
5 M$ b6 a6 n' d$ C: m, H1 b鉴定完毕！

# E# I* g, J, o" ^+ E/ c
4 |1 I" z* c4 f& v) M; A" h呵呵，太不专业了吧。

9 a0 T& v* K) d新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
( m; s- A, A) B3 H& ?- ~* J
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
- x6 Y7 q5 n- l. J3 I3 [Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' g+ Z- g# O& S

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
' [1 x) `; f. x* a3 q# A1 V4 UHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
  ^6 _" ]; ]3 U$ Z6 ]: s/ dgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
/ @/ ?2 P3 a' r4 U' T1 e4 U* }Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
  A0 i* ]: I' w+ j4 @1 x5 VHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

5 X) E4 z8 C1 I; ]1 rI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
; ?2 }' t/ S: X7 P+ b( ~; p" sMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

! E' A) V4 c2 f2 e$ x6 GQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


& ~4 @! }+ K0 lI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
! B$ i7 d, \# s0 a2 T- Y/ e1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 e( _3 \% `* W7 }2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
, `3 R9 |+ ^; f! `* D! S: h3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

3 F$ g; V$ O9 R" j下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
; r# r& q% V6 m

  c% D4 N3 W1 N1 x; `; i8 x
' E+ ]$ x9 q% w5 J只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。