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Long US

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发表于 2007-9-16 10:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.) ?: n. Q" l4 V% _: I
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
# F/ i6 E; b  y* rIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
( n1 S: E3 l( h$ v  p* B8 R4 oTD can give you 4.2%.7 ]3 }4 }- i$ m6 P) i
BMO can give you 4.3%.
5 J& K5 ~" N4 p+ t5 m) BRBC can give you 4.0%.5 ~5 f# c9 V0 K
(Roughly)) S- K: G2 \/ ~6 c
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.+ `9 `$ [5 q% O" ~4 O- [; Z
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
4 E) r! |- N8 Q( A$ N5 S7 bAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
% j9 u+ ?3 w8 {From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
/ d5 R5 v; b' V3 U7 p0 J! ?Rough calculation:- a; m  C; O8 p! U) |
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03  v; w2 _9 M) Y& c+ q. ^: `( t
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
/ f- D' ?) f. u: {7 wDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
1 d" V5 f* y- q% {8 E3 [If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.6 I) A! O2 i( O# }/ B9 y
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
9 T3 j) T0 g+ t5 R) _I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
+ u% s" W+ a2 ^) g3 IBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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1 `6 w/ T+ H, P2 E$ \, HAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
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鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
好多人都在观望18日的利率。
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发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
+ r9 |. U2 |8 t5 H7 `% h$ H; NWell, I think it is the time to long the US.( m4 v, j+ b/ \3 M% A$ s
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.9 y9 b% A2 q" Z
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

( S& }# b4 _+ R! A) O4 ?( M+ J7 N# v) i3 }
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这帐算得不对吧?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
0 |# n, I/ ]% X( X9 G2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
- S6 A8 E, u% y- r' i4 L- y如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
3 W9 Q/ S! G, S4 D而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
8 P) q+ X: L4 ]. p$ X政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴,那就不知道了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表 1 k5 C2 c3 v4 }9 R" }5 R
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

- F+ q' b! Y7 E+ \* A. ]8 w呵呵,多打了个0。
; C& M$ e) y& ?% B/ m6 M  }, m8 {
3 H  u$ F; Y0 l( `多谢。& Z- L$ T% A" M/ e% l
1 Z$ j' b6 O4 d- v; ]
把其他的去掉个0就可以了。
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-17 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表 8 J3 L8 X4 E7 |9 `
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
- P0 A2 @# f3 T$ r3 c2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
0 f4 Q+ o# e' R. o( \; H9 [2 u0 J如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。2 ~  T5 m6 ^* c- B  K, R
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
0 q& _9 {1 U5 r1 j$ h政府也会需要钱。 ...
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但愿如此。 美元今早强劲, 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
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% z' R% M, d: O现在美国经济面临通胀危机,原产品, 石油价格高涨, 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影, 楼市大跌, 破产人数增加, 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
今天北美时间星期1, 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想?
; H2 L# J$ e: I8 O! |/ w还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。8 P7 M' v9 V% v, A
如果来次调整的话,估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。' \6 e% J. z8 m5 i9 V- s7 }, z
你说美国政府会不会调整,如果下25BPS的话,会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。+ b4 I1 D6 r, c2 ^2 n  e
如果我是中国政府的话,我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份,从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange6 I/ U' v9 d2 S; d/ R" A! `  r
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask ; _: e, z3 N  m/ C/ O
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(2253) 鸡蛋(32)
发表于 2007-9-18 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]
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