Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
% i, X/ D) D$ W6 u9 C8 |0 S' {If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
7 o+ ?2 [4 d" X+ r2 sTD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
+ _! u+ y: S+ j0 h# g' JRBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
5 y1 O  C# k9 b+ N$ iIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
- r2 e( _( c& g% Z' j+ I9 iAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
. `' e' h2 t  {& C9 M2 o0 @& xAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
+ w3 V" u4 A. i8 ZFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
" p& B( P8 u3 d" ^0 B) cRough calculation:
  |7 [  o5 q4 r, n- R! R3 x1 HRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
+ |. m% R4 M6 p, T0 e/ zBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
/ Z8 z& t7 Q2 M" DDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
* I' z; ^% T+ `+ F# l* {7 {+ s, aIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
+ X. z" g% _! U6 s2 TI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
* Q! U# ]  O& D) YBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

6 V( i; w8 G  e0 e& x$ fAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
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精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
* U+ K$ _. [  ^! G8 V9 E/ p5 WNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

$ g2 K& M* G% V/ S
1 |% U. \6 E0 J$ H9 e( \( r# v# m
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
1 Q$ y. S$ l. f( K2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
/ [9 Q( _9 }& q  P而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
$ E0 r. i# C$ L1 P# x( J政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
  w, T  M; K# l$ r9 z3 c# zBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

. r, t- y0 y! k# V, o- C呵呵，多打了个0。
  |( e. p3 K( o, r' \3 o6 \9 g2 z
多谢。
9 a! D7 p$ B& W! Y' K) ^/ k
把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
" r2 D4 F1 x( I8 a# W9 Q% b我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
  ^- E& F' X  q# X而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
- v) N- c' _! B3 M$ Z政府也会需要钱。 ...

4 j4 @* e5 M, g/ W但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

. c+ w8 W3 d/ D; s# ~4 c' b现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
# W! A' ]8 {( z2 ]$ W( h% ^; ]) J还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]