Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
# X+ {' `4 l. P8 u# T4 }" J6 cNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
2 }( s8 r" |& r' G& g, c- Y1 t5 cIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
8 _2 v- E. a/ YRBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
* \/ ?9 X% H' A1 _7 CAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
: \" ]$ d/ ~1 LAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
! O$ V! W: N6 R: s7 n+ C: W4 }From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
0 B0 ^. U+ }' B( Q7 c2 _3 tRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
3 N& @6 a0 q( c5 M1 {3 [Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
8 u7 b4 G# S: {# S# v4 J4 y8 A: ?If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
7 K, e# E- O: QBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

; {# P1 e* b2 i: p& j5 ~4 ^All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
+ [' U& A1 @5 t

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
2 j5 O3 ?, ^- D/ v" I: J1 e. ~Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
' ?5 Z% ]2 b( c3 |  uIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

7 O; }) y7 y% v  q+ z
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
( {! Z/ p; B3 i, i! a  U如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
. _" w' K3 E% t) ]1 t% A而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
" @+ m2 U  G+ P& y5 K政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

  r9 H9 e( m0 {8 s9 L呵呵，多打了个0。

) L# }6 j* G" K1 U  D7 O1 z多谢。

+ M& V* v! j. R1 M# o" n把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
5 k* o- a7 u5 z6 ?  h1 h; L* {8 s而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
; Z( ~) s/ W/ j# x3 R5 v% }$ d政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
2 V3 S+ l- q. Y2 F- ~还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]