埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2971|回复: 10

Long US

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 10:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
# t& F4 ]+ ~2 T7 K1 x# Q# G  INow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.1 X: r* a# n! s' M* t7 W5 M6 e
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
; a) `' a6 b" x5 X. R1 nTD can give you 4.2%.
' ^4 Y: }# \: T* S# E& W2 i& IBMO can give you 4.3%.3 P5 n, O/ A' o7 E6 ~2 |9 ?
RBC can give you 4.0%.4 Z1 K0 j$ |! V7 w; x4 ?
(Roughly)6 d9 c, I. U+ c* L8 ?
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
$ r& J/ A8 u; jAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
- Y( j" E9 ]  g0 zAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
/ k  h2 ?5 z* L, _9 u& qFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
% N& W/ Z* `6 E6 i6 [& _/ F; NRough calculation:
" T+ N' q% s) Y  LRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
8 Q  j; @! q6 w* iBuy 10000 US cost you 105000* P$ w, B% H: T
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000, E( A2 ?7 k4 Y! t- T
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
( y6 N# S" N( ~* RIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
5 O1 Y" K, D( ~, X) jI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
$ v2 F) @4 x6 \7 g1 q, X6 I2 OBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
( K$ l1 o: D5 C5 w5 S( P0 R5 G0 k9 g( u) m0 R0 k
All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo./ z4 x; k) @7 X9 G' j1 b4 `
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
好多人都在观望18日的利率。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
! y0 x) x/ X2 \" DWell, I think it is the time to long the US.# l' M/ J$ i8 l
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
" o1 r8 @" m* `; D8 |' }If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

& f& a4 m, t/ G4 g
. }/ E. k2 S+ }5 l: l$ ^( y5 x7 Q# j; e% ?$ `' e
这帐算得不对吧?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
0 Q9 R& Y7 n. o2 A2 a% D- w2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
% w7 V4 _7 n& e1 M* \4 T如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
% T. E8 m6 b4 U- Q6 L' d而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
+ c* [! Z1 x* ~! C  T7 Y. N$ ^政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴,那就不知道了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
' Z3 V" V) V+ p# `* {% JBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

9 l3 z' e8 ~3 D' d" {呵呵,多打了个0。* F4 P. z8 e3 H2 @9 w% J1 t2 p1 }

- n; T$ K9 [/ S6 f- }& M多谢。  `1 _5 X' k8 L4 ]$ M# `

8 K$ N- S* u! d1 l" l9 E% U把其他的去掉个0就可以了。
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-17 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
+ ^* i, A$ K, K+ H2 G7 E- J" i我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。! P6 i. {" ?, P- ^' A( v+ ?
2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
1 j1 a; E" e4 P2 {# d2 L) j如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。  _( b: r6 N% v3 d0 Z8 q5 ^# j
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
6 m0 B- V# d7 G5 C. q( Z+ E政府也会需要钱。 ...

% s# [& ]4 `8 _5 Q' q- c4 `6 K* g, h但愿如此。 美元今早强劲, 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
' l+ u  q. }' w& t( |5 h6 U; F: R) p! R$ f0 d1 _
现在美国经济面临通胀危机,原产品, 石油价格高涨, 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影, 楼市大跌, 破产人数增加, 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
今天北美时间星期1, 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想?
. E4 [4 N6 r) r5 ?. [, C还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。( F  n- h. K4 Z: d7 n; G" T
如果来次调整的话,估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
$ f% f8 `& K# V9 K* P( C* b4 g4 i; a你说美国政府会不会调整,如果下25BPS的话,会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
9 A3 I  P% }7 @: s, S/ \如果我是中国政府的话,我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份,从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange4 p) n7 A2 d- j. d
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
" i( F/ m0 [  b8 X& `USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264
鲜花(2253) 鸡蛋(32)
发表于 2007-9-18 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"1 J4 h1 R4 R& q

( |5 N  V( }7 v, D2 b- D[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-5-26 03:54 , Processed in 0.248182 second(s), 16 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表