Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
# t& F4 ]+ ~2 T7 K1 x# Q# G  INow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
; a) `' a6 b" x5 X. R1 nTD can give you 4.2%.
' ^4 Y: }# \: T* S# E& W2 i& IBMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
$ r& J/ A8 u; jAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
- Y( j" E9 ]  g0 zAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
/ k  h2 ?5 z* L, _9 u& qFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
% N& W/ Z* `6 E6 i6 [& _/ F; NRough calculation:
" T+ N' q% s) Y  LRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
8 Q  j; @! q6 w* iBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
( y6 N# S" N( ~* RIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
5 O1 Y" K, D( ~, X) jI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
$ v2 F) @4 x6 \7 g1 q, X6 I2 OBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
( K$ l1 o: D5 C5 w5 S( P0 R
All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
! y0 x) x/ X2 \" DWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
" o1 r8 @" m* `; D8 |' }If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

& f& a4 m, t/ G4 g
. }/ E. k2 S+ }5 l: l$ ^( y
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
0 Q9 R& Y7 n. o2 A2 a% D- w2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
% w7 V4 _7 n& e1 M* \4 T如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
% T. E8 m6 b4 U- Q6 L' d而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
+ c* [! Z1 x* ~! C  T7 Y. N$ ^政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
' Z3 V" V) V+ p# `* {% JBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

9 l3 z' e8 ~3 D' d" {呵呵，多打了个0。

- n; T$ K9 [/ S6 f- }& M多谢。

8 K$ N- S* u! d1 l" l9 E% U把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
+ ^* i, A$ K, K+ H2 G7 E- J" i我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
1 j1 a; E" e4 P2 {# d2 L) j如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
6 m0 B- V# d7 G5 C. q( Z+ E政府也会需要钱。 ...

% s# [& ]4 `8 _5 Q' q- c4 `6 K* g, h但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
' l+ u  q. }' w& t( |5 h6 U
现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
. E4 [4 N6 r) r5 ?. [, C还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
$ f% f8 `& K# V9 K* P( C* b4 g4 i; a你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
9 A3 I  P% }7 @: s, S/ \如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
" i( F/ m0 [  b8 X& `USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

( |5 N  V( }7 v, D2 b- D[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]