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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
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* X4 e: R' X' @' ^7 b5 c7 s5 E9 rThe theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:) v0 u/ q" W8 I. w7 P
1 e) q' q @' z- |* A, d1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
, S4 |' e& I# w2 v e8 U, V0 y2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
) A' {7 L& g$ y: s0 O3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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