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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/20173 P7 L. o+ K9 T, Q& ]
/ y Q' U" y9 I( h1 }Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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" d! T4 q i4 ?4 V! l# L y: MOil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50./ W4 k8 p, L' S: L8 r- y
! {: H# d& V: D7 q l1 X3 c2 J3 xNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.5 B7 w6 F& Q2 K
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”5 ^ [2 t* ^8 u& V' c, m- E
5 g }7 G0 R0 q* r7 LCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.” h6 L, y9 t" ?3 x: p, f3 k
% `% O( Y+ k# Z7 G6 q4 M4 DThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.) ?6 c. E. A8 ^$ K. ~/ x
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”) g, _; S. `2 c5 c* y( r
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.” w. t" l4 l- J2 ?" v" @
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
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9 L1 O9 L3 k; a( J! b: o$ @Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.: k- w% a4 a5 C, R) {
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Source: CNBC
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
