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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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7 W2 ] `! x7 r: v: O0 K r7 w1 n" B有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。3 a. T+ l6 J L0 Y# Z6 c2 q
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/20174 N. _5 V% B2 V9 C) k
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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; e# N/ M8 P/ L, POil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.! s* y' X0 f' H% z
4 p: C& E& E; B/ E% q# `Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.* f8 `3 l$ l0 ]% o' W M6 J
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”6 F! M9 \6 O t
$ K; m3 j+ l* S! k* z, h, f9 ZCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”1 }. y- i O2 c7 D4 F( T5 T
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.! \" |$ m6 X5 z- ~8 u5 F. _- l; Y
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”6 s i; W i. J1 i
* `9 }1 C) l" d* [' R2 S2 wLooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
H% m& T, G3 V) _Around.”
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.* c" ?# H0 e( }& J+ w9 }
( O1 n- }% x8 y6 m7 z/ F- `) `4 s- l& jSource: CNBC, a% u9 V. {# H
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
