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: b$ R0 O1 f$ {! n0 F4 wThu, January 11, 2007
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: Q5 h$ T: L0 A y6 c7 _Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
9 S9 a0 |! y4 A$ wBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN* O7 N: A! p i3 w
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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; E$ ?3 e' U) I. W; `- QBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 7 k P M3 p& Y- t0 |( e# q; T
& e2 e q5 N' S9 t) {) WDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 9 H" \# r- B3 f
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 3 J G' |+ \2 B9 T, w
+ E: E7 s, G+ H. fShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 n8 x$ C0 ~5 J J- [& F9 Q& Z ^
! b/ k% B$ D- ^8 |2 u: z% x4 v"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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" y8 v, L5 f# E, l5 H0 ~Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. / i( d+ h* }/ y3 N0 T
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' E: K! j7 K2 a( v, _
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+ N1 w; U4 f1 Y- F: P* q% DHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." % Y, Q+ v; E% m' t0 H6 T" d' t' |- l
1 }, ~# ~ ]) ^8 ^9 N# L7 V- t# w2 CExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. & Z; p0 w' v2 c& a
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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/ f& b& C$ z6 a1 s1 B" C# W$ d* s"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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" W# s3 p! v2 D/ u"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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$ u8 t0 [8 R% r" uLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
% ?# O- l1 a, ]Next story: Building permits hit record
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