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8 W6 S- g- L2 l% y, R- a5 `6 j Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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% Z; x) u, k. s' ]9 Y* _& DThu, January 11, 2007
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* b8 `8 o: Z8 _; G5 t' BPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20073 _# T1 ]: m$ G* B( V
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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3 c! M, i, k( ~" ~3 HMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 1 H6 b7 e6 W5 {9 Z5 B3 h: p
6 y1 B) S& L: s. V: Q& BBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 9 a- l1 k6 Z* e
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* y: W3 a% G: P4 F6 V"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ( a# C: Y0 K. h' @! H5 I
9 E" K4 C7 ^2 L" @# ]& K" QShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. / M2 X+ G8 [6 X5 e* s5 q7 T1 ~
7 F1 L- P4 {% t1 ?1 ]1 k. C"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." , u6 k) v! F( r9 j$ T$ ]
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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' @4 \& E, g) Y6 g" P: @, S9 c"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. : Q( M$ A/ C6 M! Q2 V
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' w4 b* u$ X1 Q8 D2 a
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: z i7 B R7 H8 l- lHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. " O3 c' b" m/ o, e4 H& [8 ^* H
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. * w1 J8 m& q1 A6 W, k( A
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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# P, Z1 A6 f6 a5 G5 MSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. % _6 _ L7 Q# W) r/ O
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 9 C' w* b4 d' G9 u# w t& {
0 @2 H7 P% r% j! I7 m1 \"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 2 R# y# _2 V/ ?3 y- _7 w: j' f
8 H$ V, w5 ^' @" q# OLet the good times roll. % S. o9 ^$ ?; y% W& O( U6 f& q: _
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Previous story: Bottom Line7 J8 L& I2 U1 `# M* X! a& q( U
Next story: Building permits hit record
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