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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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. v* F! u9 z* p8 _9 a1 {1 p" p' P In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here./ Y! ]8 f/ u: M' w1 `8 X( F
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
. f9 I! f& f/ D1 I5 rBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: ]9 U1 D. F8 F
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 1 z. X$ W$ `. [* c% P
4 x! Q2 _6 U" {7 Y# `Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ) P# R+ k4 q- Z
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. - [8 y: w( ^7 s, M$ m' _7 t3 i
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. + o: r6 d! e0 I& s( Q) H% p7 [
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* n8 R. L, k& b" m"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 8 }6 \; |6 O4 F. _3 Y4 z9 h
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 0 n" x) ~2 ~; W
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 4 S+ Q/ u& @# o% z
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. " V& Q# W4 L* O9 f& B. X* o+ v- ^
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 K( F. y' F/ u7 a5 `
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ' H& ]. r! _/ x& X) k; b4 b
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 0 n; o/ a G/ i8 i3 `
2 r) s3 A9 ?: ^+ d"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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" e! q: |% l3 g' e( X+ t N9 h4 J, CLet the good times roll. 9 j! l; F4 ?% r* ]+ ^
+ Z6 W7 ~' E! D( DPrevious story: Bottom Line
2 l; B, A: n$ @! v# p! |Next story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
