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( C7 v; L2 T; p8 A( {. K Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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# X$ ?4 n1 e6 {. M4 i% lThu, January 11, 2007
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! Z7 w$ H, ^% |Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20074 z, R0 @) K! N9 G; j
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN1 N$ |4 q% _8 e3 c- J5 A
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 4 ]( M8 | v; u
# o- k( k3 r; N. g" x' \0 mBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 7 h o/ i! H; R+ ]* u2 H
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ! N% m: O ~# q7 A+ ]( H7 t
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( M: L( j, a$ @6 @8 Z"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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D5 i" I3 S7 z& F) w6 Y) JShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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, O5 V1 Z6 x' r; E( O4 t"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. . v% a5 n1 f9 P* {, o+ O8 C
# P9 P. ?5 ]( [/ ]2 }"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 9 v6 L, T2 h/ y+ k1 v0 r
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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1 k, m) u5 Q" V/ p, L"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." : G" ?7 ~( {) \$ S# N5 i
! Q0 [2 X; l/ ]/ Z8 E) N9 FExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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7 t5 G& {9 \- ]! v$ s: ?. IHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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# c: `( M$ y% W$ B7 B"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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6 g6 T) W& C# pYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. , G9 N& S5 R+ V _
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - Q& G- m0 m- f; i" v8 v1 @9 L
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Let the good times roll.
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