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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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By Barani Krishnan
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.
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Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.
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"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".
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Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as
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storage continues to fill."3 j' n' Q6 t$ F3 J R. T5 e3 [$ h
# j6 V" g, n3 u, pU.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.# P% b2 S5 T( k4 O
4 {4 a: M. ~/ e; ~+ S! sThe front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.
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" `1 _7 `: G. L- bBoth crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.7 |; w7 e6 @1 l
" T- I3 Q2 {3 l9 d7 O. B$ S& t/ E6 RThe oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.
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. F! E' N' q; E! r/ R# Q! J, lCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs., M4 W5 ~ f( M$ [: S2 z6 I
: w) ?/ z4 |3 @( `Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.
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Germany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.4 z) O. l# {3 s" {1 ^. M, |: W
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Investors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.6 M' k3 I7 A4 @$ L6 k
2 Q7 O/ s% ?2 w(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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楼主: jeffyu1988
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发表于 2015-9-2 16:23
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发表于 2015-9-3 06:44
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