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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts8 Y% d) x" i) c
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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" a& C# @8 H4 p* ZLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
9 P! H2 _3 W! |! dBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.. M1 G: ?0 n3 {1 N6 O- H: W% I" c
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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k/ M- [& m) R1 }" k7 H: f mThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.( r8 @: k" t' j
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”7 V$ W5 t, v, e- o
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.1 O% g& x9 y. r+ v! o
% [/ }8 b( Z3 B% f1 P6 B“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.# N3 J% h% n- L9 f
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.% t+ }2 b% q2 {+ b" D9 F1 J% L* F
+ W7 w+ g; y- }0 a( U9 g5 z% c5 hHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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) O/ Z8 S" l' B. A+ q) YIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.2 Z( C/ x! U5 N9 C% p
: C+ Z! l" ]& M. M3 ~9 {7 ]Related. M9 q i6 v9 j; i( g0 E# H
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
2 l8 K7 P; s! S# k& u7 x9 f) gCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’6 v0 X' {. M$ P% A! x# p' I/ G1 E& z
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
N0 u; L& M' YAdvertisement
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) e7 Q) w! _! X, m) d; B7 V$ s% kThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.; q! y4 S7 b9 F+ {
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”4 p0 R; X1 I! Y+ l& M8 p* U: K# v! F
q( J) X% \, p A# E3 t( ]9 E4 FFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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# Y& e; V: q2 I z" FThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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1 `7 t2 @. e, o( OThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.+ l, k0 [6 h1 N( r0 p$ ^
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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, C7 {: {: `; c Y8 D+ N& p" |“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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