醉酒的观察

醉酒当歌

醉酒观察卡城的房子产board网站，发现这个网站的分析与数据，有很大的误导嫌疑。明明所有卡城的人，都看着房价在下跌，并且也都承认，怎么这个网站还分析上涨呢？如果大家不信，可以打电话给你的卡城朋友。
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+ U. |  k! @% H& o; y8 U8 V还有，9月卡城的待售房子数量平均肯定超过5000（现在10月6日6373套），公布数据才4700，绝对油误。我每天的观察，这个数据应该是平均在5300-5700之间。

***所有，醉酒感觉这个网站的数据，是有意误导，信息与事实不符，也许是有意滞后信息一个月***

9 D$ q; V+ I3 z0 n2 M" }/ x# H3 t[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-10-6 19:20 编辑 ]

木头

The realities of real estate

# u7 a* Y. D  H' o: lPublished: Friday, October 06, 2006
+ k3 X: z1 q& g( J% P7 ]# cEDMONTON - With her toolbox in hand and overalls on, newcomer Lisa Laas feels she can conquer the plumbing world in Edmonton.
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" s) y+ W8 N$ S/ k# AThe 29-year-old plumber from Vancouver had no problem finding work in Edmonton with trades people high in demand in Alberta.

She moved here in December with dreams of being a homeowner, something she could never afford in Vancouver despite four years of saving her money for a down payment.

But she didn't expect Edmonton's world of hot housing where the law of successful buying seems to consist of three elements: speed, cash and no conditions.

0 T, R3 I9 J( s8 H, J; ^0 A"It absolutely scared me," she says. "I moved here for a house, and all of a sudden a townhouse went from $105,000 to $155,000 and I'm going, 'Oh my gosh. I have to buy really quick.' I've seen it in Vancouver and now I'm starting to see it here and it's frustrating."

( d' @# ^( O% `7 g8 u' y, ELaas started looking in February. She had hoped to buy a house for $160,000, but soon realized she had to change her plans. A townhouse would have to do.
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( Z: W* i4 ?3 q1 vBut she has lost out on four places since beginning her search for a house.

She's been outbidded, "out-offered" and "outconditioned."
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One house, the one she really wanted in the northwest neighbourhood of Calder, went on the market at 4 p.m. and had multiple offers by 6 p.m. so Laas walked away. In two other instances, other buyers had fewer conditions on their bid to purchase a townhouse, so her offer was dismissed.

/ ^9 W; b  S1 o2 J% e- D; b- GLaas says she was in tears because of the experience. She has given up working with a real estate agent to look for a home. She says she's backed off the whole thing, but she keeps her eye open every now and then.
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5 J# A' J6 @2 w/ ZForty-five-year-old Cheryl Daly is also having a tough time finding an affordable home for her 12-year-old son and a 16-year-old daughter.

  J# T/ K* ~; W% k1 `5 o3 mShe left a 23-marriage and a 1,700-square-foot home last year. She works as an administrator and now rents a three-bedroom townhouse.

) b1 @5 H  J0 A  R, sBack in April, she started looking for a home, something in the $170,000 range. "I would like to have a half duplex even, but with the prices and with my status, I know that's not realistic," she says.
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So Daly has been checking out townhouses, but even that has been difficult for her.

"The places, when they come up, if they're at a decent price, they're gone really quickly," she says, "so it's a matter of timing."
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Time has not been her friend. Every month the prices of homes in Edmonton climb higher.

/ t* ~. D6 ]- \% fAn average single dwelling unit in Edmonton sold for $316, 480 in August this year. An average townhouse, which includes the price of duplexes, sold for $262,327 in the same month. Last year in August an average townhouse sold for $175,922.
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& g/ V# X# x+ BThe president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, Madeline Sarafinchan, says the hot market is tough for first-time homeowners and single people.
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) h) l7 p' @* o) i0 b2 Z7 G"It's definitely making people think about what their options are," Sarafinchan says. "They're having to look at things that maybe are not as what they would have termed as desirable."

That may mean sellers are not as open to "conditions" on offers as they used to be -- such as a house inspection before the deal is finalized.

木头

Laas was actually zeroing in on a townhouse in Londonderry in northeast Edmonton.

It was everything the 29-year-old plumber was looking for. It had lots of space and an attached garage. It was built in the 60s or 70s, she says, but it was solid. And it was in her price range, between $160, 000 and $170,000. She had 25 per cent of the down payment saved. Everything seemed to be in her favour.
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Laas really wanted the townhouse, so she bid $3,000 over its list price and indicated under the conditions that she wanted a home inspection.

  s3 s( r7 V" x$ C+ j5 t/ rBut she lost the bid. Laas says the townhouse went to a buyer who had no conditions, including no home inspection.
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* R! r4 Y" L) [6 d"I think it's crazy," Laas says. "It's too scary. You have no guarantees and how much it's going to cost to get the repairs because people paint it, they hide it, they put carpet over it. You don't know."

Dropping home inspections on offers to purchase a home has become a trend in the city's hot housing market where buyers are frequently pitted against each other in bidding wars to get their dream home.
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The Edmonton Real Estate Board doesn't have statistics on the conditions of housing sales, but talk to any realtor like Bev O'Shea and they'll tell you what's going on.
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"As realtors, we have to explain the great thing would be to have a home inspection, for sure," O'Shea says, "but if they want the house and they've got four other people bidding against them on a house, more than likely they won't get it if they have any conditions."

) E0 t9 c- s3 F; b: C5 v5 }! nO'Shea adds that some homebuyers are also reluctant about getting inspections done.

  l3 [- r, m" p& L. Z- e& Q# j: ^"I think a lot of purchasers won't go to that expense of spending $300 on an inspection before they know they've purchased the property. It's really a Catch-22 situation."
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+ B" u# ^# X) LO'Shea has witnessed the repercussions of not having an inspection.
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1 z9 w) x! X/ w. A* A7 R, n"I have had people a little upset that they weren't aware that there was mold in the basement," she says.

The president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, Madeline Sarafinchan, says the trend is a sign of the times, but no one should put an offer on a house without an inspection.

"If you're going to assign blame it would be on the market, of people wanting to be able to present an offer that will be accepted in this market," she says.

"There's a chance that people jump in the heat of the moment, and they'll go in without conditions," Sarafinchan adds, "which can be of great concern if they go into an offer without a home inspection condition and on a used home. That's not a good thing to do at all."

5 X" D2 l$ [0 ~. m  a1 l6 S, Y3 pAnd Laas, for one, won't let market forces bully her around .
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  R, @$ J* ]7 M; Z# oNo matter how badly she wants a house, she won't forgo a home inspection, she says. She will continue to look for a house on her terms.
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+ E3 Y4 K) N+ y- B2 hIn the meantime, Laas will have settle for her two-bedroom apartment in northwest Edmonton. It's cozy with hardwood floors, a hot water radiator and all the other typical character of an older building.
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. Y9 J5 U1 x. p& K2 X' P5 u2 fHer empty moving boxes sit in a corner, ready to be packed at a moment's notice.

- - -

  o. y* Y& t3 b8 cHOMESPUN ADVICE ON WEB
+ }$ y$ a+ y* F: [
Check edmontonjournal.com for an interview with the president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, tips on how to get a home inspection in this competitive market and listen to Lisa Laas explain what it's like to shop for a home in Edmonton's hot market.

木头

Laas was actually zeroing in on a townhouse in Londonderry in northeast Edmonton.

0 h5 C+ r. ^. b# WIt was everything the 29-year-old plumber was looking for. It had lots of space and an attached garage. It was built in the 60s or 70s, she says, but it was solid. And it was in her price range, between $160, 000 and $170,000. She had 25 per cent of the down payment saved. Everything seemed to be in her favour.

, @7 `, b5 ?7 G/ J7 ^: wLaas really wanted the townhouse, so she bid $3,000 over its list price and indicated under the conditions that she wanted a home inspection.

# h& B: w8 S# r0 L8 `/ kBut she lost the bid. Laas says the townhouse went to a buyer who had no conditions, including no home inspection.
$ w6 S. s5 ~; x: g$ G- K/ t% X
8 K1 k5 l. i. V"I think it's crazy," Laas says. "It's too scary. You have no guarantees and how much it's going to cost to get the repairs because people paint it, they hide it, they put carpet over it. You don't know."

Dropping home inspections on offers to purchase a home has become a trend in the city's hot housing market where buyers are frequently pitted against each other in bidding wars to get their dream home.

The Edmonton Real Estate Board doesn't have statistics on the conditions of housing sales, but talk to any realtor like Bev O'Shea and they'll tell you what's going on.
3 ~- q! M) S2 \/ ^3 b* J; P- y# Q4 V
& U9 @1 k' t- L3 H% u0 ?: Z"As realtors, we have to explain the great thing would be to have a home inspection, for sure," O'Shea says, "but if they want the house and they've got four other people bidding against them on a house, more than likely they won't get it if they have any conditions."
% {- e; |  ^& J1 x
- d3 k7 Q3 t" W1 pO'Shea adds that some homebuyers are also reluctant about getting inspections done.
2 h, D0 j9 Y2 ?8 L; {$ q6 _; }0 b
"I think a lot of purchasers won't go to that expense of spending $300 on an inspection before they know they've purchased the property. It's really a Catch-22 situation."
% @) p3 \3 ]* j9 O4 ?# N
O'Shea has witnessed the repercussions of not having an inspection.

, A/ I9 Y1 T& |"I have had people a little upset that they weren't aware that there was mold in the basement," she says.
8 m  M! u. ~+ _' m: ^' K( G/ H
The president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, Madeline Sarafinchan, says the trend is a sign of the times, but no one should put an offer on a house without an inspection.
! M. F4 e' B: U- S* S
- i5 @* V" C/ R"If you're going to assign blame it would be on the market, of people wanting to be able to present an offer that will be accepted in this market," she says.
9 ?4 t1 E" t& f, U2 {
"There's a chance that people jump in the heat of the moment, and they'll go in without conditions," Sarafinchan adds, "which can be of great concern if they go into an offer without a home inspection condition and on a used home. That's not a good thing to do at all."

And Laas, for one, won't let market forces bully her around .

No matter how badly she wants a house, she won't forgo a home inspection, she says. She will continue to look for a house on her terms.
' w' O. o' k  l! N
In the meantime, Laas will have settle for her two-bedroom apartment in northwest Edmonton. It's cozy with hardwood floors, a hot water radiator and all the other typical character of an older building.
' o! G3 U! A' Q6 o6 z
% G; c( ^$ e- }6 y; T! bHer empty moving boxes sit in a corner, ready to be packed at a moment's notice.

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% d( q# K. V" ~! }* P
! x1 k1 h, {7 r4 f3 dHOMESPUN ADVICE ON WEB
( l; S9 s& W# y; e! T# Y8 d
' u, J! Z% t6 l, C& eCheck edmontonjournal.com for an interview with the president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, tips on how to get a home inspection in this competitive market and listen to Lisa Laas explain what it's like to shop for a home in Edmonton's hot market.

老农民

误导是一种策略，也是一种营销手段，否则，压在手中的房子怎么出手。醉酒已经成为炒房者的眼中钉了。

秋叶

原帖由 老农民 于 2006-10-6 20:51 发表
误导是一种策略，也是一种营销手段，否则，压在手中的房子怎么出手。醉酒已经成为炒房者的眼中钉了。

! |' A1 @5 ?8 T市场走势不是一两个人可以唱高唱低的吧，所以有房子要出手的人不要太在意个别人说什么。 而如果趋势不幸被醉酒猜中，炒房者应该感谢他提前给自己打了预防针才是。

臭鱼烂虾

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-10-6 19:16 发表
. Q6 N# t. Z& E; }醉酒观察卡城的房子产board网站，发现这个网站的分析与数据，有很大的误导嫌疑。明明所有卡城的人，都看着房价在下跌，并且也都承认，怎么这个网站还分析上涨呢？如果大家不信，可以打电话给你的卡城朋友。

+ G+ P  l% j9 Q6 q( }0 {还 ...

- \7 Y* p( L! c$ ^& i6 j3 m醉酒啊, 醉酒啊. 搞工艺的人要有逻辑的, 怎么能这样随便否认自己向别人推荐的网站?
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其实CREB的数据很容易解释-----现在买房的质量在提高啊. 例如. 以前40万只能买一个1700尺2的地下室没装修好的房, 现在开始有1800尺2的或许地下室还装修好的出来只要40万,当然有人要买哪, 其结果是仍然有人在买房, 而那些反映表面现象的什么AVERAGE, MEDIAN PRICE还在上涨, 但差的房子在积压, 这不是变向跌了吗?  最后就看那一方挺不主, 或外部环境支持那一方.

醉酒当歌

你的解释后更清楚了也许，。。不过，这个网站的口号在网站首页很明确：为卡城地区5000多个realtor服务。。。。
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不管怎么说，投资房子的朋友别恨我就好，反正每个人的看法不同。
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原帖由 臭鱼烂虾 于 2006-10-6 21:39 发表



; _; ?' [: G1 O" K1 T8 S7 [其实CREB的数据很容易解释-----现在买房的质量在提高啊. 例如. 以前40万只能买一个1700尺2的地下室没装 ...

8 Q7 N  T" R' z9 R! ][ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-10-6 21:51 编辑 ]

老农民

我本人比较赞同醉酒的论断，之所以一部分人反对。是因为炒房者和买房自住的人都不喜欢这种论调，你刚买了一部手提电脑，有人说马上就要降价了，你肯定不喜欢听。涨停板上买不到房子，这个事实已经在几个月前出现了；跌停板上，卖不掉房子，我们将拭目以待。房子攥在手里是纸，只有卖出去才是钱。

Z

房子暴涨是可以理解的，但是出价比要价还高就说明这个市场是非理性的，注定会反向调整的。

& J' \( N6 m7 ~莫要跟我说什么材料上涨劳动力上涨，只要看看汽车市场。加拿大最畅销的轿车是Civic和Mazda 3。相信这里没有人会出个比MSRP更高的价格。同样，你去Walmart购物，你不会出价比列价更高。如果有人愿意去Walmart竞价，请便。我自己不会这么做，也有信心疯狂必然灭亡。

dzw

原帖由 Z 于 2006-10-7 08:11 发表
* v* Y" X/ ^  A/ n* Y  R; [# y& ]房子暴涨是可以理解的，但是出价比要价还高就说明这个市场是非理性的，注定会反向调整的。

莫要跟我说什么材料上涨劳动力上涨，只要看看汽车市场。加拿大最畅销的轿车是Civic和Mazda 3。相信这里没有人会出个比 ...

同意!就象有人让你花肉的价钱去买块豆付,那就得好好啄磨一下.豆付毕竟是豆付,也不一定非买不可.

苹果鸭梨

豆付的成本好象只有＄０．３０．可现在中国人吃的多了, 中国店卖$1.39, SUPERSTORE卖$1.59, 甚至$1.89. 好象也都很快卖完了.
- i) T1 k6 a  g* `3 HWALMAR的东西是便宜. 但他们的采购成本只有10到20分之一. 可并没有听Z说到中国去付成本价买日常用品. 看来只要房子的卖主
+ E  r/ x4 k" p2 k2 G6 P感要, 就有人感买. 这个市场, 有趣.

潇潇2005

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2006-10-7 12:44 发表
豆付的成本好象只有＄０．３０．可现在中国人吃的多了, 中国店卖$1.39, SUPERSTORE卖$1.59, 甚至$1.89. 好象也都很快卖完了.
WALMAR的东西是便宜. 但他们的采购成本只有10到20分之一. 可并没有听Z说到中国去付成 ...

突发奇想，发挥一下，别介意
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2 R3 q. @$ v: j# s8 K& R9 S" ]+ I据权威机构分析，如今豆腐价格$1.39，仍停留在历史低位，事实上，$139才是一个合理的价格。
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据权威机构的预测——伴随黄豆的短缺和不断提升的劳动力成本以及大量涌入的非吃豆腐不可的新移民，在不远的将来，即使豆腐价格升至$1390也不是没有可能的，到那时$1390的豆腐也至少有十几个人同时抢，应该至少出价$2000才有机会吃到豆腐 。
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不相信吗？那就想想爱城的最低工资是多少，就算那最低1、2万的年薪，一家人一年吃一块豆腐也完全没有超出他们的经济承受能力，更何况，这样眼巴巴盼着吃豆腐的家庭数以万计，豆腐是是远远供小于求。更别忘了那源源不断涌入的新新移民，非常有经济实力，他们才是抬高豆腐价格的生力军。所以，这豆腐的价格，只要你敢要，就有人敢买，你不吃，自然有别人吃。
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故，不要觉得这预测匪夷所思，更不要痴心妄想豆腐的价格到那时候还可能回调，名言道——豆腐的价格就是扶着豆腐街的忧郁之墙上去的！

所以，大家快抢豆腐吧，千万别犹豫，因为机会将在你犹豫的一瞬间失去，然后，今生今世，你就再也吃不到自己能买的起的豆腐了。

dzw

哎,这年头,豆腐也快买不起了.实在想吃,买瓶腐乳凑合一下?好歹也和豆腐搭得上边.

音响神仙鱼

原帖由 dzw 于 2006-10-7 21:42 发表
1 K  I: W6 N- r- j1 f; f, d哎,这年头,豆腐也快买不起了.实在想吃,买瓶腐乳凑合一下?好歹也和豆腐搭得上边.

4 X. A' X7 {; v3 ]2 u, b
好象腐乳比豆腐贵哦, 我个人比较喜欢鱼露~~~~

苹果鸭梨

原帖由 潇潇2005 于 2006-10-7 21:11 发表

" |3 e" b# ~" f! Z+ p+ i: ?
3 A2 z) U1 `# ~! X/ k9 |( k突发奇想，发挥一下，别介意
2 u2 G4 I* J/ U9 D9 H6 e
据权威机构分析，如今豆腐价格$1.39，仍停留在历史低位，事实上，$139才是一个合理的价格。

0 s; _: Y2 i9 U. u8 U: r4 W- R据权威机构的预测——伴随黄豆的短缺和不断提升的劳动力成本以及大量涌入 ...

很乐见潇潇的借题发挥．
; t, i0 g/ `& P% d0 E再说了, 等豆付吃不起的时候, 可以吃牛肉,喝牛奶吗! 何苦跟豆付过不去呢!

苹果鸭梨

对了, 到时候, 我请你们吃苹果鸭梨.

Z

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2006-10-7 12:44 发表
7 b. W) d8 A6 g, {& t豆付的成本好象只有＄０．３０．可现在中国人吃的多了, 中国店卖$1.39, SUPERSTORE卖$1.59, 甚至$1.89. 好象也都很快卖完了.
* y, M# K/ J4 y$ v% V; V2 AWALMAR的东西是便宜. 但他们的采购成本只有10到20分之一. 可并没有听Z说到中国去付成 ...

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5 E; v9 i* M+ W, [5 m, g) t2 i你这纯属抬杠了，要不就严重缺乏中文阅读能力。我说绝不超出列价购买，没说按成本价购买。我批评的不是高价位，而是非理性竞价。
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我可以$1.89按列价去买他的豆腐，但我不会付$2.00去买。这和成本列价之比无关。
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9 y0 ~( w( u) s1 ^同样，如果一个人列$30万，我也不考虑他的木材成本多少，如果喜欢我会付$30万。但我不会付$32万去和傻瓜们竞价的。如果他想买$32万，他从一开始就列$32万好了。

音响神仙鱼

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2006-10-8 09:19 发表
; w' B2 P9 x6 Z对了, 到时候, 我请你们吃苹果鸭梨.

好呀, 你家种了什么果树? 我正打算在后院种棵梨树呢.

catty

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-10-6 21:48 发表
, B* {  [7 J7 ^5 e  W你的解释后更清楚了也许，。。不过，这个网站的口号在网站首页很明确：为卡城地区5000多个realtor服务。。。。

! Z3 p  |- T5 M  m* X不管怎么说，投资房子的朋友别恨我就好，反正每个人的看法不同。
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. F8 D1 P' A1 C好像welist上很多房子在已经redueced拉，感觉比例挺大的，后果很可怕

猪刀小试

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2006-10-7 12:44 发表
8 K0 q6 u2 i8 ~1 r* c豆付的成本好象只有＄０．３０．可现在中国人吃的多了, 中国店卖$1.39, SUPERSTORE卖$1.59, 甚至$1.89. 好象也都很快卖完了.
WALMAR的东西是便宜. 但他们的采购成本只有10到20分之一. 可并没有听Z说到中国去付成 ...

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. }  Z( o, s/ U# H  x% }纯属抬杠。

苹果鸭梨

原帖由 Z 于 2006-10-8 09:52 发表
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你这纯属抬杠了，要不就严重缺乏中文阅读能力。我说绝不超出列价购买，没说按成本价购买。我批评的不是高价位，而是非理性竞价。
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& {7 J2 S$ M$ j: x( [我可以$1.89按列价去买他的豆腐，但我不会付$2.00去买。这和成本列价之比无 ...

* ?- U" U7 I2 i2 p; A还别说, 我也觉得有抬杠之嫌. 当然, 抬杠也是灌水的一种方式. 就当是灌水好了.

猪刀小试

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2006-10-9 00:32 发表

& x1 I0 P# c' B" Y- y4 m还别说, 我也觉得有抬杠之嫌. 当然, 抬杠也是灌水的一种方式. 就当是灌水好了.

" P7 _0 s. g! G7 ^5 X反对抬杠，支持灌水！

苹果鸭梨

原帖由 猪刀小试 于 2006-10-9 12:27 发表


0 {* z9 F. B) L- e7 q8 ~' }# j反对抬杠，支持灌水！

你到低是混进可爱猪群的,披着猪皮的小狼? 还是披着小绿军装的小猪?绿帽子可不能随便戴喔!!!!
你是来抓灌水的, 还是来支持灌水的?
1 d  X/ Y' M) y. y你咋啥都不一致啊?!

猪刀小试

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2006-10-9 13:31 发表
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" U+ H& R+ k- k5 U 你到低是混进可爱猪群的,披着猪皮的小狼? 还是披着小绿军装的小猪?绿帽子可不能随便戴喔!!!!
% h) P3 c3 g- y! M' [, n! q你是来抓灌水的, 还是来支持灌水的?
: ?; v; G! S3 k# g你咋啥都不一致啊?!:wu ...

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8 o; u" \+ E5 O9 C俺这制服是毛竹席发的，有灌水的我就抓，没灌水的我就自己来。想投诉，去纪念堂找主席去。