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- e* C) u* Q3 J) I5 w& i1 R2 e' g8 p6 Phttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html+ j) G: D( P% }& W. q
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.: E2 O" k6 ~# @# P) n+ W
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.4 p1 K M9 D' [& ]: t" G/ I* @
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.( v7 K& S$ q8 U$ O2 g! Q
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Why might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.+ V9 k# W |+ ]1 B7 M* e4 S8 Q& N
2 J8 G; F3 H8 i* m7 d"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.) x! n- {- x) y: j, J; i4 I
% l' K3 p& c5 C. s" p" s6 h, w' m"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.5 m3 \" f: p$ b' Z+ _# p7 o
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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Burleton knows how they feel.
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.( P# W& O2 L @. Y$ x c+ A
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.6 [; l7 m( S6 ^
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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& ^0 Y l6 e/ ^8 i5 iAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.5 C/ C: ? q- m2 f
: @( @* a: l6 W5 P3 O, |In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.# P/ d2 T" G( a9 N/ L) w) L6 r
) N$ f6 r% f: s. b& B) \4 Z7 O+ dMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.. [3 ~; |+ L, Q; M: q8 ^( m
6 t( S e& c( y- H4 {That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.7 H7 x% q. H7 T; }
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.; Q6 ~. k, m9 U6 f4 i# J8 M0 d$ @
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.5 u; q7 Z& U/ G' i- }
8 d, f: ?! U3 M {' h"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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; r' T" z7 ~9 ?4 sThe market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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) {) n' n/ \/ ~- @& \But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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