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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
" z# @ w8 [' i9 NPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET( o2 l: U* v T7 M7 a* ~9 L' ^
Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.% n+ r- ]; o( D2 |. ~3 h4 m7 m
8 y/ `, o7 H i0 S7 X; q% K"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.) k! T0 U- K# O& \9 s
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer., F/ E6 \' C! r. k/ l R
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.9 H9 o$ y9 D8 e9 f) \# X8 A
4 | q9 O1 D" k) S0 J4 _7 t"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."& i1 c+ i' H. c5 P
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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' \% A1 k3 m1 g" L+ L$ g$ v+ S5 zThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.; K- E+ O8 p( R6 T6 p6 I. w
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"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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! U. [! i4 Q I8 Q$ ?! iIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.5 z7 O! u+ M) {3 M) x& e
. x+ V! Z) b: q: }! E7 n, hBut those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.% N+ s/ g- G" {6 F" U
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.- R+ G& c/ ]& ?0 A$ N1 [3 E
0 Z' D$ p5 E; m# o' y9 `: U) K"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.% n8 ~5 O- f# \2 E: ^5 l
' Z t) i3 Y. |2 [6 ^1 t"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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! p5 ~4 `5 k) Y" J. R: F"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."/ C/ N+ I* B% P% o# o1 `: ]
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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0 v# n2 l' S! D"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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