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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 1 O7 B# ~2 Q: L* I8 m* T
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat $ g# M( P% n/ N1 `' L# x
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
% {7 g1 g4 w5 Y- qcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern' s, a1 o5 O* I; D1 h& _$ E9 G
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging$ B- b1 c7 c- P
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
3 I4 C1 r# T; T0 ?, Tand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
- X# g6 d" r" T& B5 c2 Z6 G6 Iupbeat.
7 R" Y7 d4 b: q0 A5 M Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
# i' D5 I7 j c7 n/ S+ y& gannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
1 s' H8 x6 T; b) Ginterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real6 ]' F' E8 c: k4 L! ?) I# z- h7 C
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company- v/ d+ R3 ?: b; B8 \; K- e; f: O/ _
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
# x+ a" w* J3 l8 {/ T0 KOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* o' j& E0 o9 M# r, Q3 T Oincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.0 V. k( E; d9 L# [
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
. [* _5 o. e, g( k- Q5 |Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment+ i+ y8 }% z9 G8 ?8 Z
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
' ?( |1 C& A7 M/ s# i- s0 _be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record: n$ M9 u4 O: }$ r
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."8 c4 g9 S @0 f y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the% @! F8 F3 P8 Q9 O3 \5 Y' l& V- i
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
3 \8 K/ Y4 C9 uspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
7 }) w! I5 W+ @0 H4 E( U) vremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
1 P$ W( K) Z( h( e- \8 v {' Ncorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
7 S8 e( J) y0 i, N) k) Lvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
- U) @5 [, a& y2 p+ ?8 K The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
6 S8 d& h: w7 D% frespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% F' h; }% U+ }/ g! \
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
$ ]4 q7 V4 G8 m7 |9 jdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
% x- I+ `1 U! {% \, M( eespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating' B' ]" e" H% U/ c
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The1 K8 {, m! i6 z1 B) U! O7 t
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to) i0 [( q3 e6 l9 s5 y
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 `+ m2 r9 n x$ p' ]
single-family housing looks overpriced.! f7 I8 E4 J2 }
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
3 p3 i- C! ^; R; x: ~tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian! u6 o# f( Z) H$ [! a# V# _
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push( [5 Z6 {$ a* k! x2 e
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 Y2 r+ p/ K1 d' cnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
l; R0 o- ?' k, _and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental8 U& v2 Y. J! v9 L8 |. N$ v: g* i
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary( p$ C7 I# `, x5 h
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
& D5 X1 d' D( n& Pshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
$ c" B# P9 j8 o4 j; Ythe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development3 }5 F8 ~% t: J+ g: ?; ~' H
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, n, \$ e5 U1 d* J: z8 N8 K5 Gcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
. v5 \+ O& O6 x" K8 }/ ?' L/ mneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
( X; y6 h" G+ E$ K( ?" F3 C9 b) Ointo the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in- D- [8 k5 l# Y# Q: B* k& {; A( P
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical- e0 Y" Y" g$ j4 ]9 _2 _
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out; Y' x; u( G6 g' H
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment3 ~. H, \% K5 w! w' ]" j
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
9 W' k. w- G1 q2 ewhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
4 r' v& b r+ }8 b2 }' ?Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high# j' H: V2 x2 Z/ [
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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* E% N: u* [% r& v! n" j9 J Calgary/Edmonton
5 W+ s; S) i% M6 v( K+ C) d1 Z9 v- y$ c% ]
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
9 S5 L( t7 r9 g) V/ @% sboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a C( l) G7 M( ?" p' l0 Q7 v. g
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
8 [! X$ H- R |) g8 b48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.. Y: V) ~' z7 X6 k
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale! u! n- l! v! \
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the$ ^! _ F; u" `& w Q
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
0 D/ A) Q5 J& w4 F9 V( y* R8 Mstrong, this market will continue to do well.+ z1 S8 u4 {; V* Q" \1 C" a
2 A5 v' B+ }6 y" p% e( ^ Vancouver" u+ e0 N/ [9 M
7 r$ |, ]/ Q+ h# a Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
- X4 p2 u$ l- [$ C5 u S$ Jbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
0 p3 l' H4 a( P) s9 `; M& b; Dreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the8 [- d( G x/ X6 b3 i5 B( ?# C7 a
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
6 J* ^0 m! @6 i& U! @& Wgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
; f; B: V0 b. ?2 A) l3 Yrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
/ w9 I1 ]( S& Pfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%& A- q8 ^. H: P, z/ E5 D7 j
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
, n, {0 D: A: ^7 D. N! Z( [good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.5 w6 z, i: z1 V& }& x
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Toronto3 S) Z9 v5 `& ]0 V( u
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and/ p0 q& c, Y- O5 {8 A3 r! ^5 `
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is$ L7 b& {! B7 O5 A
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing& z. c. M& _* o$ p
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
/ H% Y7 M0 Z& @7 g& ?* I0 qThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square9 o% K% M( {* r
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
' j# g" d+ \5 F3 f* q, D$ kApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys./ k9 g8 |/ o4 ]
) C/ J2 g- F8 ^# ^( w Montreal
4 {3 P$ O% ~% H+ i& r4 B9 ? V
: e+ Q) Z+ f8 b. O Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
" `7 {# w) m4 N1 pgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
; _2 ]& a8 x/ ]$ m1 A( `3 `shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
$ M3 C8 u: u; \) o" eCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate8 m1 n8 a8 {, w8 |7 ]
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors# b1 A' a6 {0 X* F7 V- @
higher as a "hold" recommendation.& u( ~$ P: A- |. C6 N- c) K
3 |6 @2 b: a6 i* w0 L
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
! w& x+ G: N* W/ m8 Pinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy' B0 |! \! d: K
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos* A, {. L$ V0 M8 x/ n/ N% ?, e
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
9 Y$ B3 z0 T* z( _/ z# xoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current" g/ v! U3 q l
prices."
. V( I5 O0 k" _ A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at$ u5 q7 P% ~0 J4 D
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
; u8 e; g z3 n
" ? Z/ b" l) B/ h0 \8 \$ U4 {2 \1 | PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,9 f5 K: K2 P5 q( c5 d
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its. N. V+ c8 {3 p+ M( U; ]
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
& f' R) ~1 ^! B$ m+ vacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop7 k, _4 L3 _ k
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
! l! \8 x/ r; @- E! @& }excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
4 G: R0 {5 Q& M$ jrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
5 X. K" k; x: q9 a4 Zcountry.
+ F: M( C4 p% F/ M6 O& o. w "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 ~+ S$ u3 b0 ]5 O. [
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
+ ?5 ~4 x' n) P. H8 b: k k8 f, n3 |PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,! g& E9 T3 @' B% y7 ~8 Y
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity." ]; e6 F/ T7 O
' Z9 W0 L4 u9 ^' k& V" }
About the Urban Land Institute
6 ~. Q4 M3 V5 W: p9 a( e: R/ `% u4 @* V$ ]# T
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
, Y+ k1 F( B4 M- C3 K4 l/ Rresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide/ K$ q% b0 b) _2 P( V6 J
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
- l0 `9 r0 m# y; @9 ]8 M! {& a+ |# n' @thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
9 w6 F! I s& u$ Hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
& a% U; F; y9 O5 X/ |5 xdisciplines.
; i2 C1 H" d# Q& J: T The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
( E: M8 @/ E- \) H, g& E/ K7 H! l) oWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District$ d- B6 d; w6 [' h) `0 P3 h" E$ P! O
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
/ k& s8 r! T3 W: X4 @' e0 o" znow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
, f9 h$ Q: ?! J* t* Z! B7 [hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
4 F0 t5 l+ t: w0 x v* `2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake( G' s ?* r8 |* I1 @
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,4 c) {' x; {7 D
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
8 r' ?+ }6 L) |- Lcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
2 t6 [2 r @, [2 l+ j& Othe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.! ?+ X% B4 E2 {; N
. W% a# J+ A% f- Y. a( b
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' M& @1 s: p' y" n( sFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,' K6 f. A' @0 \ f" q6 w
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com9 Y% S+ N/ P% i, N0 v
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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