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Attention Real Estate Reporters: , t9 `! |6 f8 a
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ' _) f8 A1 k7 E+ T# i9 D. I
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US3 I0 p, _/ d& R' @) a$ M. d
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
7 [( N$ j9 c0 ?3 g" Q" C( _as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
* _/ c M3 a4 M0 |Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 R" N5 X1 q& @! U# Z" d7 a
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' I- ~5 r+ O6 W" r; ]" X# Hupbeat.! I( _: s# ?* t; g, d- S
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded: i$ j" R0 p. V6 G
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects, i1 J6 {& \6 R
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real5 ^1 u. w+ ?- `6 F& |* {: k
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company3 W( U. w* b* ^" W0 a4 @
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.8 \2 A8 I. B1 }3 \
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* z/ o- E% s* ~: eincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
- z! l! q; ^/ d \" u According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
/ I3 j3 Q; O% C. EReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
3 g9 B' j& V8 p1 f$ H- q6 henvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to; o+ H& C# Z, n+ I1 ?. Q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
: Q: G, L; X3 P! [5 h. Bhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
: y6 n1 D& ]$ ] According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the4 ]# ^2 [- C4 v1 w8 l* @
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game+ x: K3 J# B( J! f& z+ d/ p
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey+ G- `9 E J" m5 P, x* u
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
0 ^/ ~" v) w/ y' I, Rcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, q, ?! _# B" i0 a
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
$ t9 u. P& _9 ^5 E, [9 K% {# i The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
! E/ Y3 A6 f- [* q7 v/ a0 E krespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
* P# m* b' S; Z9 i0 Ncommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land6 |' F \3 N5 q8 O
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
" S" K' T, m7 Y% E6 C7 W5 tespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating" {! M+ t2 _/ E% p
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The$ L8 |/ w: i1 D" q
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
6 `3 C$ ?( ]' Y- ^" N+ [( }take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
8 X. B& N, q( B* d* Z. ~single-family housing looks overpriced.
; l' R: L& [7 t# K7 V2 D M Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
: t* E2 V/ M X6 {4 I% etenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
# F) }8 Z6 C7 B# T$ ~! Bmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
* o( n) r6 M& j" vhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
' W1 X, Z0 O6 i/ s% nnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,5 N% X2 {: m" C2 v( U* P% c
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
) h8 O% M* t6 D: K2 n7 e2 t, Iapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary1 B: a, f+ F8 z6 u. N
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
# S- |; _4 u. b6 \$ h, R0 M2 R8 Lshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
8 R& k# `$ X% {, z; n9 |+ Athe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development/ U: r5 ?/ q/ |
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., b+ P7 D- S; H
6 r( ?8 v7 Z" ]# w Canadian Markets to Watch+ e0 \- t8 k( D% A+ a3 @
# n* ~+ i6 |8 U! q* [3 o
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
7 I+ [ J- O6 T) Y% f- x$ Ycities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour; P( X& H' t& |
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
3 `" n/ x2 y% t2 o! L9 Hinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in! I) z9 C! @- W; ~' ?6 D& _
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
% X3 ?' ]6 Z7 c! {6 eprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
- \( \6 b8 q3 I( q2 B' l: \! iwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
$ e& y5 v/ s7 |' k( x ~prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain( V" U& n; n# \" d* k9 G
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.% y5 S2 o" x6 c4 g' P5 c
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
' a0 N' L$ s/ M8 k! jratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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5 }+ V8 F* b6 R0 t- u6 q& j Calgary/Edmonton' G$ H9 N$ I0 d/ v) b! n
3 b' @ x. H# n1 r( e3 w5 r Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* ?& W) L% S1 ~( x3 V1 Y! @
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a1 {" n$ ^+ Z, b2 F: q
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
6 ^, z9 n7 C' E) B0 V2 R9 B x0 [+ D48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.* u! S& H' i; J+ E' O; \
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale- X1 g" Z- W7 F& N
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the6 P* f# d0 H1 c8 m/ M, {5 y) x
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
3 e& h9 G: c1 R: n+ {7 Kstrong, this market will continue to do well.
/ t9 \- f$ A+ B1 A( ~* v
$ l/ Z- x+ X' { Vancouver( E, k s s/ v
. f3 ~$ a2 g, Q6 G9 D
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
3 R K; f; ]/ ibooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
3 H% R! k. [/ q2 G7 U1 Rreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the; U: z4 U4 _" u. a* J+ k' \
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a5 k9 ^8 k+ c/ V# k( X. R5 p
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy, U9 p7 F; Q+ ^. K3 ^2 o) S
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
6 u- F- J; z% G$ C+ qfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
/ [, T P, r( \8 C# cfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very4 _ v9 `/ q B& [4 t4 G, c
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto+ I( t8 D, T' |- L2 Q+ A V
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
! {0 w+ ~/ f2 e0 umanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
8 G, h, t4 A7 f& P0 Irelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
3 v* F. |7 T: h S' ~$ T$ N& Qindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
^ s1 c5 j# c4 I# J$ A1 I+ B oThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 d6 X& t! z& e! V
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
1 I) s) _% q9 dApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.' I3 Z! c- x1 p. R/ T3 e$ r
& U3 k3 P; F& T7 r5 [2 F s+ ~ Montreal
7 p: f& e; u. o1 y* N1 T
' }: O7 F: W5 x& \5 O8 N Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall5 S& P! `6 L" q3 I7 O
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up# |+ K3 @( @ o$ U# Z+ H* v
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in2 s, a7 Y; J6 ^- c; d
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate( L3 k* f0 I* s( [; `% ?
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors( l( V9 q) O) S( r' N
higher as a "hold" recommendation.# w# B0 G* m& `4 `" T% r
. E3 G, ~ N" a [ The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
8 W# }1 X( A6 H9 ~" C {include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
; n( i+ |) r- V8 A5 hmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 Z- \, K) [8 f' a6 F* |) `& `7 V5 e
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest1 a8 g$ @4 z7 d' T' }3 S+ S q: X k
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
; s) Y) { x( U7 i) l. [: t. uprices."& a7 {2 b$ b- j
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at6 ]( N y, B) ^8 J1 t
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre./ }, e5 v' v# }% d
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
7 e0 W$ `: K. I& T/ v/ a8 W! t" [- P- F; q0 v
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
" ]+ X7 r/ u" I, Ktax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
3 n/ J( B: {; r* e7 ?/ eclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries# i9 y# ]9 A1 y7 v% T8 P" P2 w
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop3 \: L* Y. o" D7 o$ j! X
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of1 o" a1 N3 m+ R. M5 w
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its9 U A3 o4 } c' m" l: C; ]
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
2 T, ?" `2 U3 N G" ]country.* X) k1 i& v8 m3 [4 L9 Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario5 v+ ~0 Z% k8 N/ d n! ~
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the# u. L& Y/ ]# E. q n9 B# o; l" ~
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,) c7 Z- z6 F( p; ?- J
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute% V4 U2 E, F# @) L5 X/ p: r! o; s. I
/ A G. s) P' w$ b1 L7 a
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and! Z2 _' s' ^; A; A& G
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
% E' Q: o$ E: G [+ U0 m4 o& Cleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
0 {% y" G% r0 [& }* jthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
* e# ~9 w' ]( u4 B% W! e& Hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development9 E1 m' P: v% D/ C
disciplines.
4 `. U! e$ q- S+ g4 x3 S5 Y The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' Q& Q. @# d5 y; s! p" p3 m; M
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District$ D) ]% [8 O1 ?! B' v' S
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
# @" _2 R. m7 a% lnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
" F7 m2 j0 W4 Fhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! {- ]5 [+ R6 l* [* H) {! S2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake' w& U* w) y3 H; [
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ i) \9 \# {% B9 t" k" ?
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
. X5 a* N+ y% c& B/ ocall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
$ o* H2 h( W: k- a( ]/ ethe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.5 p, ~: t r! |5 ]
: ~$ t8 q% M9 F6 h k
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,3 _7 B5 }$ t9 o' G# S+ ?
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
3 k( V/ `1 ^- S5 z7 |8 Bhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html" t% u4 N+ T. ?$ H3 V) r
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