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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
- ~" T: f: R& x8 {6 j TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
7 m1 g& m: t) G9 l/ N! {commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
j& L. E' R/ y! s7 u& c! I1 F _as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
+ D' S% v9 i8 ZTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC): G" f( G; }! [* I6 [' Z5 m; X
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more# A- h5 c. s( r4 `
upbeat.9 G+ o7 b$ y$ K. B3 g: x
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
, b: I$ Q! X! a4 x" Pannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects$ `/ ?, c' G% S" @! Q, n$ \) Z
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real) S# a* Q8 M$ \ h" o
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
" X/ ~) ?, e k& s, brepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US." {6 J+ B( \' T( m/ e
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world* n0 \ b1 V4 U& t
including Asia Pacific and Europe.6 M5 v# Y6 x7 C3 {! B- y4 e6 ~" ~% b5 Z. o
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
# H2 d* l. B) O* l% CReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment9 \: S: r1 v7 p9 x% Y" ?
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
" J6 k& V- t: L' E0 |! kbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
3 x& i7 y ]4 v' U) d2 d8 f, nhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."' y3 G6 P, q) q p- t, {0 A
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
$ E0 O- P# t" s; x8 ^border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game5 B3 c9 M( Q3 d$ {+ a; j9 t0 D
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
$ g0 b# M2 U) A. A1 H, h; n8 w& wremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US/ i, R G7 L3 Z
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be) H+ y U+ V4 W) U+ }, H
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
& t) F' `# [; m5 p2 s: A o/ B The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
4 l, Q! Z( Q" z1 f. k% o7 \respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
7 L) ^* q; k+ i9 ^5 ncommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land8 V1 K( C/ m) Y# A6 W# G `" V
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country+ H8 @- D! b. b5 z+ M' A: q6 S8 a
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating. Y8 j7 e3 \% `4 ]# q; c2 c) V
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The1 f/ B# A' r0 ^- Y4 y
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
. V' G/ b1 O/ v8 H& Atake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
1 e1 p" @+ Y& e) s3 }, @. nsingle-family housing looks overpriced.' e( j6 Y7 {% E F! q- N6 T# R! e% R
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with; [. R. R' A l9 ]$ S% ^3 c
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
4 c3 z& a, l7 r# d( [5 h) e' p# emetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
! m0 b; N% N8 Z8 Y9 H' [higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting5 X+ S" I' F2 R0 v6 v4 S
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,% P% r1 s7 F/ }- |" q
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
9 ` ~& N# @$ u0 F1 o7 ^6 Rapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
B1 P- M' m1 v5 {4 C+ L. Wwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
* {2 E) Y* T$ i+ Zshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
& q# x2 ]. t; j ]- ~3 A, Jthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
4 s; W2 T# r' o" kin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
' ~5 r4 _. ^; I' d% r# a7 l1 V
3 e* y# ]& T( \! i Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central; H+ |0 K @" J3 C
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
( a1 g" F% A9 s' H/ h) Lneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
1 z" ^* T9 R0 b1 }1 kinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in& ? x) E) [$ i
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical" T! Q6 m2 L6 _6 i' S
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out) U: v" ^& {2 M. l6 e+ O+ }
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
3 |/ k# V% H% _# r. ^& ~3 jprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' y, r( W6 b; m+ i
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
/ F* \! V: t: TToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high" F! l% y- T: _* H! ?# Q, o
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
4 [% p) F5 C: D h, d' G7 x: R, e3 o% g
Calgary/Edmonton7 w6 S6 {4 {1 L" Z- P
9 e" D8 }# h! ~( P0 a% p1 A Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one! o. S+ L: K% n8 }1 j
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a! f7 {7 `0 C; Y5 e* s: Y
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,2 H) S: W" B- y) e
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
2 N! e7 k0 ?3 aFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
C' G/ H8 z+ f7 x/ iHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the- m: N8 d% y' o; I
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays8 @0 N/ P; {& |# I2 I
strong, this market will continue to do well.; V- q- P3 E& g: a. ~
9 R2 b! Y, `7 x( C3 ~3 a Vancouver. u' ^4 r4 X$ F3 A+ z
0 P% m' B$ l$ k8 Z7 e
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
, v$ I8 U( A/ [3 j# rbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous1 V, n: k* o6 X2 B$ y1 M
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
: i) M. A6 u1 N! bmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a1 n4 e ]& c% y& H* p+ f5 m
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy% Q; Z7 _6 `7 T/ I$ ^
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
; r5 Q- N/ p% D! e& I& [1 Z; }8 Bfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%/ `. m1 x9 { G; e. P& A' z: |
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very# F6 l, v' O ?+ J g3 s4 y
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
# U& | m/ a7 z9 c: D& M2 h3 u: L; s1 j( W v" g
Toronto! P5 L' P \" p
% H! Y1 d1 k6 u6 \" Q9 ` Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and/ b: Q6 O( t/ Z/ J/ N! H
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is4 E, ]! s( r& R+ h% H
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing5 H- O3 S' P: c6 n% t
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
' g, Z. H$ @, M6 x0 A( `6 vThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* V9 L: }( F# E8 d
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and E# {8 I" s! L, W7 K1 q- s; z
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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/ ]) d& A' M G; P0 \- H Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall; s3 T9 \; K7 A2 g. `$ R) }4 C3 P$ e; L
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
1 ~5 R! W, x2 {; n" tshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in: S9 c+ ?" U# R$ e, I
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate9 |+ Y) s9 ~4 f
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
( t$ ]( }5 k, f" j- Nhigher as a "hold" recommendation. ?& R7 b2 ~! F z' A
( [( A) b; m+ T9 K! M0 t
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
2 u& ?1 {* f* f2 W9 J n) _include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy3 K3 R6 A2 m# N, q6 v, T" Y
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos) |, y6 z k8 b# Y6 f
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
" u9 _, u# I$ @overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current c8 [- D- q+ L* h; k
prices."1 q' [3 }1 g) r# @1 K0 \
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
, ~* j. |: i8 Z" qwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
( J+ g4 A" \: `
4 M- m+ h/ P9 r About PricewaterhouseCoopers* h9 N3 G3 p r" S5 X& g5 ?, l4 f
, w. h! z% ]+ J5 T/ D+ L PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
% f6 a& ?4 F' X$ g0 i5 a7 }tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its$ d6 p* z4 G3 i' ~# k
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
( L7 t. t" \( Y1 }# Y7 _, _1 R4 Hacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop) a* K Z# z$ R/ U+ K2 U8 s
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of2 `. y1 I4 ^$ ?7 t6 R" N
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its, q. m( j' W0 F0 C U4 V
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- K. J% H X- ?7 {
country.! d( X/ j4 w+ E, ^: P+ l; G
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario) @* l: Y! t9 e( c p' N
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
( ^: h1 F" b6 V; d6 c. \: MPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,, o4 X v: j. ^) M! J
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.+ M* S. T" u; u: u
( P/ X/ u- ^# R( V! P
About the Urban Land Institute
& i T0 C, O) M/ n( m9 i; P
( H' H- R( Q ` The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and, q: G; J" F6 n0 J7 T0 A: \
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
1 H5 @' G/ Q+ ^$ nleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
9 h) i$ k1 ]- ~9 K( x6 Pthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more% Q0 S$ O. Q, r" Y4 t7 b/ a
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
( n! |4 E6 B+ ^disciplines.6 w& ~/ d/ y- @2 Y I# ?# _* j$ `9 K
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.; _# ?: |1 D. K* P5 B2 k' y/ U
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
' E6 R5 W* e. F7 Q" Q7 R ?Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
9 Y' j2 x/ s d+ H1 T5 Mnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be% r; S$ n: T" e1 {/ _1 N9 O
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
8 c; v& _# f8 d; j+ E2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake( g9 K4 T( u1 `3 G) Q
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,- }( _% m, I- j6 k8 D
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please; W: ?. ^2 |0 A
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on$ S; A6 h. N/ G' u7 L# i
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
3 O; c6 F4 j6 t: _, p6 x# h7 D m4 H0 ?) k
' g$ c) L* |6 v2 u1 p$ C2 J( Q/ j
* ~0 L* t1 G1 Y3 lFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
! O7 O/ s' _% p/ m6 m$ v(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
( F9 l* x& D1 r6 g7 W9 [0 zhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html7 v. v6 O: l& ]# M4 }6 `
: E i3 E* P0 x2 A: y& t% E' x[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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