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Attention Real Estate Reporters: y6 r2 W6 m/ L7 M
7 M0 y, O; P8 O( iDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
9 O, a% v* b# S/ e# T# E( v7 x9 {& ] TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US% _* t7 o# u9 A9 ]* q' }
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
$ c0 }) J5 u7 a' `8 k4 Das the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging9 d) N% H# R9 f: F4 T
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)0 h% k+ @; J0 ]6 T3 _5 T
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more" }' n8 Q$ ^, X/ U9 h6 q
upbeat.
- R0 c1 [# m0 Y4 k) i$ S5 J- h Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded1 W/ q; H% q3 {3 N# r
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects* X+ T; |( ^ s' h+ l1 J; n
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real! p2 f- B$ o, n* l9 A' d; v7 u
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company: I0 c; p7 X4 g2 e$ f2 O
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.+ W2 b& D* p( T" B3 W
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world% a6 v1 {3 F# I8 k7 A$ s! K: J7 R
including Asia Pacific and Europe.9 t, G; ]- \8 I
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian# ~1 p' H: v1 t; D& `/ v E# ]9 @
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
# E$ {# S' T g1 Y' r8 a* d6 ^environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to# S0 y1 ?) X' [. E- Q" L; Q' |
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
/ }. ]9 I: E9 \highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
$ T+ [. I) _% d+ _! H According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the( n- d! ?$ g% v. d
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
- j6 X8 m$ d | Wspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
1 _1 @' b! N+ J3 t. P- Q cremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
' a" r/ H, Q! g$ L6 a* _! l5 l+ ]- {correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be8 V& b$ ?4 o1 _, S+ {! t
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
) ?# t" r" E: ^# A* v The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
2 Z& ^% i. R- h6 Q* Frespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
" I2 Z1 t: e7 g/ I( n- x2 hcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
( r3 }8 }" G5 N5 J |development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country# _/ }; z; r: r2 m a- v: Z1 W* h% R# [
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
$ c6 `8 x/ \& ~+ V% q8 J0 \development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The# V, T2 E) P* l( O4 E2 r7 }
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! q+ V6 {5 y. P
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
% R& v( e0 D) J. a7 c7 Csingle-family housing looks overpriced.
# v( m7 W- Y# ]) Q l; l% S( ] Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
1 l# S: f! I2 H9 K- f; G8 g+ A1 v$ ltenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian, Q: w, Y! P7 f, z |/ v
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
2 e e; b E+ W9 _( d% y! `higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
. g* m4 ?, m) `1 ~$ Ynew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,# o5 e8 Q, ^- }4 U
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
' S- d# Q' i! |) Q! z: Qapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
4 x/ _5 l/ f2 ]) Y* S$ Z x" Ewestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
3 q$ \( {4 d$ W/ kshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into {3 f& P1 G( O9 N `& y
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development+ q" G( h: e7 h
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.9 B/ t( V' n/ l9 n+ Y% b
: r* p- }- r4 Z( a" }2 w Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
8 |4 r" A9 o1 y" ^" ecities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
- y8 u: |3 ^+ {! ^4 s% B% { }neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
0 s( T% B" V8 ~: o6 x `9 z3 sinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in" o5 j" o P: y
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( O, O+ V9 P3 V9 E' U# }! D4 }projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
( g$ }' d \6 q$ H/ I8 xwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment( F1 t7 h# n/ v. H9 C
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; V: I% z/ ?) X. }2 e2 h/ I# Wwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this., U9 w, P5 l# P+ B
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
0 ~; W5 u7 Y Y/ D& K1 o$ z+ Tratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
3 } }. e& j/ F! h% J
U C5 U+ F, f Calgary/Edmonton @6 s3 @+ H9 v9 i5 x& z
$ q1 d! s3 z/ I' R- r( }
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one9 f4 e4 p ^3 B
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a# k: v* i) p; f' w/ Y
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# Z' ?8 u; J3 [0 u
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.7 t+ L. c& H1 y! N7 g+ x
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale. x% ^. P" ^0 k* O4 d8 `
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
B3 T2 q! J3 YCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
9 i6 E" `1 f# N; J( P. z# q2 vstrong, this market will continue to do well.
3 L; X7 K' L! q, H0 \, L
* }6 f4 U5 F( P Vancouver) a: b+ T$ }4 {+ L( {
" m: \1 C! `/ _4 V/ U8 ] I Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
5 f! F" v; f0 x/ l7 A3 m; g" Qbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' R) W9 E; a2 H& b/ c9 z6 J
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
$ [* u6 j, |3 xmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
5 ^) B4 }2 l: }1 vgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy1 ^( ] ~# ^: a- P" Z
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
/ V* a8 G1 q. Z/ K2 q. Rfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
3 P$ q2 Y5 _5 I; @for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very4 R& f; A: Q; ?0 w5 d
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
h0 v# b- b% w- m: b) w( _! n: b3 A3 K/ K
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and/ g6 V+ a# D% y
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
: M$ t/ {2 X6 B6 q* Qrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
+ L4 @4 ~. e4 L8 j6 K4 [industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.1 d, }) m( H, M3 s
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
7 G5 g/ |- I. F4 f* `! zfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
' M. @- C. A+ ~) R6 b1 {3 CApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys." v$ T% ~6 c2 Q$ F/ g
0 K1 c" n4 }& }& S0 P
Montreal* h9 v3 n* H( A3 R* M4 `
1 {$ @' G5 p+ X2 W/ y Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
7 F- e7 J! x- |% Z- Igrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
- _' { Q: ]2 c1 D( q3 @shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in% _0 n7 a. c/ C5 P3 }
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ c6 I4 m' I5 E9 F4 d6 \/ zsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors0 q+ ` _ G0 N0 r8 Y a
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
4 f# j- f% X9 v5 K' T3 W
5 _, r8 }- m4 w! `5 B) C( A The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
4 C6 r* S/ X1 t( Q+ \5 N' K1 k2 Sinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
0 g) I2 M; b# vmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
* k5 C; [0 ]6 m5 _8 knear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
; `6 _7 G' G# P' aoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current1 c6 y/ Z; a9 r8 Y: ?0 h
prices."
! ^: k5 t( @! h9 ]* u1 |" R' r A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
' t, i. p+ L$ d* l C9 ~8 E5 Kwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
4 ]$ B% W2 d' }; Z, h& I ]
, w/ l7 [0 h3 @ About PricewaterhouseCoopers
! |* N2 f" _. X# [9 {$ ]
2 _9 L- e( W/ x4 p PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,2 e+ J, m/ _8 Z1 T
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
/ N% k5 i5 U! G" tclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries5 U2 ^ _. t$ `2 t( H" C
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop* j! G- {/ l3 w/ R* B1 {
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of( X: A3 L) D$ b* x- n( k0 X9 ]/ I
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
. d% k4 M7 C8 ~related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the5 b9 r0 m/ g5 E2 t
country.2 V8 v, d! B* N! \2 \
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
- g# s' P- M, m1 Z5 [: H5 Olimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the' H- b9 _$ x6 ?/ A7 @
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,1 Q3 P& c% [( C" G0 @1 Z# i
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.# Z9 m7 c9 A& d4 n5 y
& V+ R& _; E* a5 Q5 q About the Urban Land Institute
+ v' M( }0 B5 I; l0 q' h+ P8 z3 J
9 a& b/ b R9 G! r1 S The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
' A" \- N7 G4 {7 X) m, Xresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide; v5 T& m; q( V' F4 h& F) `3 g% \
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating" P9 o( U/ z! ?( Q; B. G- m8 t
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
2 Q7 G" C. ~! j! O% T, d7 ythan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
3 R$ ~# V' B/ S% _, zdisciplines.% G+ p+ }- l0 R1 J' n+ |* g3 O3 W
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada./ h6 v1 F2 ]+ t
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
, h5 H6 p7 o# y. r* b1 }; GCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
) ~- p# }' j2 x5 @6 anow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be) S- L# E7 `0 W6 |" d+ [$ M9 x- P
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
1 S( X. k3 }2 v$ ]# D8 h2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
4 y' u4 X5 @! }# ]* q' y5 E. dHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,7 p/ |$ Y4 P0 e2 c! M5 W8 ?
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
n) m( E% j4 R4 L$ F5 ccall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on: f7 K$ y& p y# ^: N; `0 q$ J: r
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.9 H9 \* q& |" I c9 V5 p5 E' h& D
$ W( _ Z3 w# o5 i& r! Q* l5 J, k7 V6 a/ f
$ b/ G4 m: g( @9 ]- ^1 ]( {For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,4 D% y* m" T! m6 p
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
9 z4 k/ ]( f! I( J5 Nhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html7 X: A, L! U2 g! ~! P
$ U) n, k2 X- Y# P[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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