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Attention Real Estate Reporters: * U( X! K/ Z8 q( {0 H
) N4 C# d+ R2 c& SDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat & `+ `5 |: J% ]! K, D) w
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
3 T1 B j+ z8 y* D4 m( acommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern! v7 H3 h6 `/ O5 Q- O
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
$ P5 ?, u2 Z' h7 @Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)6 z9 b/ c9 h! E$ H. r
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more+ ?4 ~ U7 W: ^( V6 ^
upbeat.
6 @1 p4 p) k4 t; F$ W3 y& g5 g Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded l% l9 T9 h' \7 E0 L* \* A
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
2 M: i- x# H4 w: F! K( y4 Yinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real8 a7 u/ T" J: p& [. T1 a- j
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company5 ^" k, L. X! R% O
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.: D5 {" X" V+ O; I! e
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
. H; N/ U( M; |- V' U4 ]including Asia Pacific and Europe." _( Z" v! a3 ?: }1 N/ c
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
' J s& }9 _8 XReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
7 ]$ `7 M/ y/ W% b$ X. {environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to2 R. ^" D8 r. g$ A6 h1 Y7 h
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 ?" C$ _* |- [" X5 H1 |
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.": v5 ~* A0 L5 o) ^( R
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
: N* D$ T/ q' pborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game7 S% P& T# w$ v' d# {# l
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey' H4 j6 i4 f$ s# P" b
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US7 H* c0 D, n i$ V/ M
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be/ x+ |' r8 v9 J& b& k: ^
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent. W& ]3 U3 G! O6 R+ }" K
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
, ?1 x+ F) K! B0 Srespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
0 r7 \- }3 y8 ^- p4 \7 Ocommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
# M- a6 P& N" y4 H+ Fdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country0 u* u( S% W0 S1 U9 B! H
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating' U: C2 o% h2 I2 X# O$ m M
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
4 O) u* `% e6 |residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to$ |9 `3 y+ O& _4 j" z3 t, a
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and* V4 `' ]- r) a4 H* g3 A+ a
single-family housing looks overpriced.4 C, ~( F }! i& ~, p! S/ w9 G
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
: V/ C. E* R+ w! }tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
8 Z: Q2 M" z% o/ Y2 V ]metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push3 `% X+ n/ O2 m* f: U7 \. _% P3 \
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
5 F6 h, [& \: u' j" U" S6 |9 c/ Knew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,2 o9 P" ]! e5 D) @
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental/ W5 O c" i1 P! V6 g, G
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary- H$ T! i q9 U, H# C3 V- e9 @, ~1 f
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing% p4 a% |0 g r" O; D: ~* G
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into, F3 g$ Q2 v7 Q4 b* _6 y
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
* w8 j/ t" o; r1 D" C4 h1 `# u( p. Cin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
' w' b8 ~0 \* a) \2 x, ^3 u+ U8 b" y
Canadian Markets to Watch% {2 |. h. `6 ?6 x- f8 S
# h: n5 @4 Z }! U- b The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
& I! }$ C7 N# D# Y8 m" Bcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour/ u) h N W5 ^% n# K
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back9 r2 V& t7 u! y9 i3 j
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in& K' \$ J( _/ O* j* }0 D; I$ ]
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
R4 i" b4 E/ R6 n( B( Cprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
7 x% N3 D8 d: ?* W/ a8 Wwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment# ?7 X, M& I- d' A, j# e0 E
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
* h. {- h r" |% Y* }whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this., R# Z6 e ^3 r
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
$ w* t4 ~+ ^" Q) ~$ nratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
3 E+ {" j9 W" L& A' B0 | w8 Y4 T: o3 Z0 m
Calgary/Edmonton
5 Z! N. q' m) N9 [/ r9 \
: j* P# L# ?) Z9 K4 z' E7 ~ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
* ?& X7 z0 b) ]" u. P6 |" nboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
& c9 n5 D D, L K0 Z% p( _buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# e' R) u+ }5 Q/ E
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.4 J: [4 o2 A/ M# f1 F: E
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
8 G8 o- F X) i2 U3 v3 C7 y7 K# sHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
/ m6 K8 g2 X( KCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays. ]2 a2 p3 b: y9 N$ i7 L- u+ V
strong, this market will continue to do well.
3 f8 \* T4 q% t0 S; E+ u* `: g& \, m2 P$ h3 b+ f" O
Vancouver
I+ f ]8 m: P) y+ m4 A
* ?( g0 O" y$ A& Y- z$ u& R1 K Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is. \8 s( F' Q/ k3 [6 f- \
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous% Z+ G, a9 _$ e+ w1 {
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
4 H3 c6 L) \8 y2 f. Z$ x3 }/ smarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
3 j u& H8 H* R9 ]7 P/ tgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
" T* v3 d9 {, p! K7 l3 t9 N4 u8 ~recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
; W) Y& T( O# G+ dfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
- d, x; H+ t8 w) f: t( Gfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very1 I3 b: z, ^- f5 k5 w) g5 S
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.. Y1 o5 e+ k2 k# }7 D, D6 V+ a a
2 q( W; i9 S& ~: l1 X Toronto" p. h( Z* f" `, }& ~
- b: K J! |6 p. A
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
0 G4 _+ M- B; i+ T" cmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is) e1 G' T7 C) w$ s& Q3 ?
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
! H2 `$ h ? |! p! u% Uindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; g `6 p5 I* W/ xThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
8 x/ O2 J% _+ B) ^feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 i+ X, _# M2 F/ t$ |$ wApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.8 n0 L# R) \$ A; h
/ S5 K" I9 R. X7 i
Montreal
* I3 m+ u9 l- Q/ o0 }0 F# e7 m' p7 p! J
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ U8 c0 l8 H2 c6 t- x1 A+ Q
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
; H% Q) X3 b6 x fshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
1 N6 s! Y4 ?4 w3 D- E2 vCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate8 W/ r( q& j$ a8 [# @) p* ~# P
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
, R$ E6 ]" D) e9 Thigher as a "hold" recommendation.
: N' G5 j ~. g5 g! z
}; c. b6 u4 A( o The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
9 D i1 `! k. I# P% P+ q3 p* Iinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy! {/ ^" ~: V2 x- |. ]
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos6 n. z9 k# _7 `, x+ }
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
, s2 r0 A( g3 k! \0 B7 s# noverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current+ X, i4 }8 E4 |1 Y2 K1 |+ p' `
prices."
& a; {1 ]6 m' S A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
7 A s+ R5 \: X3 Swww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
6 t" i6 _* C0 _) U: D% M# ?9 L. K8 N) \8 z1 x/ g+ B: x
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
: }1 P) U) f; W) @, K5 s; y c) S5 A `# J q+ _9 u/ S+ R
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
& A p& | w9 W9 i0 \2 itax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its4 p7 X7 H# D n; @' V, i
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
" Q) Z: [# j7 D; Cacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop- V6 Q! f! k( K, o3 n
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of# V9 A' N* A' p4 l( \$ ]
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
; x3 L' f+ `, r5 N6 i: H6 i7 Drelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the9 s* y3 @8 J8 v
country.3 u8 l: k# d' p. j) b4 c
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
4 J$ P. {* g( r# Klimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the6 b a) n2 V9 h" d9 I' e" _
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
, ~/ |$ K4 a* i" Zeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
! E) T# X3 i7 r8 k( {; w: Q: R2 r0 H+ a
About the Urban Land Institute3 @& v/ g9 N. z; w
9 U/ G5 ?% T% B! P( f7 s! C The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
0 {) Y% B; j2 l: @7 _3 gresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
" Y! \; ^( |3 G& fleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
/ n5 p7 {" [4 ^$ ^) V- |! D- o; othriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more( K; P/ r7 B, F) w
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development( r8 T, t3 K& a# M# O
disciplines.9 _' [, ~" b" Q t/ ^6 f
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
" u9 Q' e9 b# ]; D- b4 H. J+ C w. aWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District7 @( f2 n4 h8 N2 Q
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is# m% g0 {. f9 z( e* o
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
" y7 B$ z7 U7 O/ K! s6 U8 n9 Lhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
7 a$ ?3 a2 ?, s. t2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake0 {9 c& f6 S! u( e" \6 ` \
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras," z z3 p! J' I: P8 L
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
' u4 c% [( Y3 O" H3 ]0 Z- icall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on- P% X% @7 }1 u1 w6 f# I) Y* V
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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. i) ?$ `: \9 s9 C8 s/ l! K. O! r$ k& a A# c
' a+ X: b- p/ T) L2 Q4 s0 Z, vFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
" {7 i0 h& x' ?6 F(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
/ ?' Z1 h, [, K1 H( w3 }( c0 x/ V0 dhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html- j; N2 h3 C, d- I9 y
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