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Attention Real Estate Reporters: " Q1 ]# ~; H- l3 Z9 C+ s/ J
3 g# F. b5 w6 Q- x8 a: SDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat & ?. x1 O2 s8 k9 t
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US* n/ Y N% B( M( {3 K- M, K# O
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern# T: ]% l1 A' s% M
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging/ x3 a6 J' M" E i# I% \) V
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)" [/ ?' i3 S! S% [1 }
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
. P2 L$ X& f0 t1 Cupbeat.4 V5 ?& M' ^ c& _# N
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
% ?0 T' ?$ K* u* rannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 H$ e# m4 d: k7 j3 M
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
1 q4 z8 |! G# M l% B; testate experts, including investors, developers, property company2 P* _' e, G! j. g; s: x
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
3 x: d, M" Z- Q! VOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world$ o3 Y0 Y1 a6 T2 i
including Asia Pacific and Europe.4 C" \9 G7 D w3 |
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian* P9 p; z' |( J* H' s
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment: i, l$ z6 N6 _, |" s- L9 G
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to t- r2 Z [0 u- u3 m
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record1 X( g- x4 o) g1 V* I# n" l- ]' Z
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
! @7 y p0 u" D2 D According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the) P1 ]9 a1 {6 s! t
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game8 V* [6 g8 N' ]. N$ T' H0 u! d
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
/ Y4 F+ t' x$ @remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
7 }1 S, P, p# U/ e' @5 ?+ O8 ~; tcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be$ k- }6 U& o! K% K5 ^
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
+ r2 J6 C. c+ `7 F0 r$ J The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian# h' {1 D8 O# n4 ?( J
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by- w' N( a, [% u. n9 u' `( }& x2 o
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
; F/ O& e. c$ ~' udevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
5 A9 n9 ?2 [/ ` S4 @' m+ E3 c6 iespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating/ t ^$ ]6 R6 p; |
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
$ {7 B0 }; o4 R0 z2 R" R Bresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to& O- Y! Z$ q% M
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
. d7 q* U4 f' v; [6 M; Asingle-family housing looks overpriced., F" A5 P9 I5 ?( K- f- E
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with" P, @: L, z2 j% v) R- d
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian9 j0 K& K9 T; d z1 Y
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
% N% { o/ |& }3 I# [higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting! d& P1 F# v. x+ O
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,( r, Y h/ y- b1 l
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental# G5 `; a, R) G- j
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
/ _- T0 B. r- N2 Y8 w" mwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing( | ?7 y1 j6 y2 o5 v
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into$ f: C: Z- z/ u, v
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
& o% m( V5 Q6 b$ _) Min other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
+ O" s" Y" b2 @7 ^. J: a F8 G4 @+ A7 s
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
8 a w6 [) p9 y0 l3 L8 Ycities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
4 I# W4 Q# k4 e8 h+ T& rneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back. X6 Z4 q% N& H2 O
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
' S2 M, u s4 _0 s; ?downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
6 J0 C& `- t! L; W( qprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out9 B5 X3 T, P9 m9 b9 G
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
$ k$ P8 e( v) y# M! V/ dprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
. s9 R" Q- I$ A. _( I! x' Vwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
+ s0 r1 E3 f) Z: G9 O" xToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high$ T; t0 } m/ M2 ]$ I0 H( I1 _
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.. {- e0 s% s0 V% }
2 [, h9 P! c( n* w) l
Calgary/Edmonton
+ [- v6 \6 k8 Q+ X- g% f7 ?9 w$ G
4 r m+ Z! J { Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* V% Y( m( d. S. R6 d
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a# ^ i* c7 ~" \' o
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
& h7 ]/ y Z0 m; f. H48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
. S' W% n8 u/ D! S2 d6 N0 hFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
- o7 v$ \+ t) W' H+ W4 b- G) z, RHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the6 i: k/ [; j/ s5 Q0 A, U
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
( B) T5 H. C2 z ?" ^ R( h, Hstrong, this market will continue to do well.* x4 n5 U7 k# Y
% k3 X7 F! G- e( y. S
Vancouver
/ h2 E- _7 z7 y0 _, h2 t8 F. a1 b) f% i. M6 b: Q5 B$ {
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is& K z3 \# j8 J. o) C- @. J
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
# O( r- P$ L) l9 t% f3 yreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
+ R0 A8 ?9 B- f1 M C: d: C! ^market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
' {6 n+ J- @ U4 Egrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy" [7 J1 _2 j9 [
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%" j2 B0 \; f# k$ V* `* i+ c& i: A
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
/ r0 E4 K' M- Z: b; n/ U& i5 ]# n7 kfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 Z" B) H. \2 ]% m6 j
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
. B, m# }: W3 C- V
D* J1 u) [9 S( n Toronto
# y/ \" x& S* y* J% I+ p1 d+ p8 h) |2 I3 D) m
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and- n3 u/ O! C3 h$ z/ _2 I
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
, b6 E. c3 g, ?1 | nrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
2 {7 [* _2 _8 a- oindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.: G O0 \9 R0 w* O" C" g
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
: k! \) T* z: {2 w/ j6 c. {* w6 p2 rfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and! n& x* Y+ t. V
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.3 Z# d( }! Z3 Y( c7 C8 Q
0 h3 t' V Y L5 D$ B* o, B
Montreal, f; E$ t7 S8 k, G; t% E% i& e
; h+ e9 z# ^% H/ g Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall6 r. Q7 U3 Y8 C7 P
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up$ I+ l. v9 D2 d" g; s
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in7 ?: \7 y, h- J4 f
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
4 c- b2 l" Z3 }% \7 hsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
3 P! F4 R; R ghigher as a "hold" recommendation.
, T* z& X; J: K+ E0 t: @, H8 w. @' \' i3 `% Q
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years1 B# G% M8 \$ W6 E
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy& V/ N5 ~# y" j2 T; v/ b0 C& M3 X
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" k/ w4 e9 J' q |/ M0 w! Hnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest9 _ ]# z! @/ a+ ]( X( d' F" f3 L
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current, G" q/ o7 E( J9 U/ q# {
prices."$ F: @ O; j) l
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
1 A5 U/ V0 ~3 B: W+ awww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
~- V- H+ e& ?; g3 M7 v; u% g! G
4 p; J/ ] c8 D) F, t0 P About PricewaterhouseCoopers
4 c' `' X' P8 h5 H4 O
% ?4 V3 V& Q& U0 r PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,$ j1 B2 g# S6 c, Y, F, o
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its' |# Y( U9 f6 r
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries5 }( `( e& U1 Z3 y3 _
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop8 O0 T' g+ `6 ~; [1 p1 Y' X5 H9 Z8 K
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of) k, \5 l! y. K6 {
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
; A& K. P* ? M Rrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
4 V5 ?6 y/ P9 k. ? rcountry.. E* F* n0 r. g; H& K. W C* u* u$ K
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
% K+ ?" Z+ ]( ]' L" @- z9 ?limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the( A9 @3 q, u0 J) N4 r0 V* H
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
3 I1 o7 V- ^% O+ \. {$ ieach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
& w$ j& u7 J O+ Y s" b9 Z3 l6 @3 S$ ]& I5 X. G# Y9 Q
About the Urban Land Institute
' H: a1 A# d( g4 e3 W$ ^ b2 J4 x/ ]# f- D" ], i% P0 t: P
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and" z! [9 K$ r9 Q
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide7 O2 c0 G t# h4 J8 g0 ^! v
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
" ]! G! Y) V8 I3 ^9 f. D4 u, F; vthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
1 I, L9 D- e. f$ M/ p7 Uthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development+ k* U0 X3 }/ w$ x
disciplines.2 M5 J% b) W. ~' a. E3 V
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.) v: \3 }" U! W, \
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
9 e& b) `( ]$ v* }4 aCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is! s8 s' j/ ` r+ P# R; @ X
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be+ V% K% ?4 G6 J: |5 n
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
$ D! B$ c/ t& Q2 s2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake9 o: r3 q, m. ]9 f; O. Q
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,& F% ~1 J$ D' G. j4 |" b* C% q
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please) l b- J$ b: a+ N
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on4 v7 R# j& L% G+ d/ p
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.& f: n" Y7 Q/ W L" ? P3 t
8 W' g( M$ J d+ r3 O/ A2 m$ a( W; l
. L1 m& h0 Z/ [+ p* w/ w
+ _: o" j4 `- t; _" {" B0 cFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% \8 P: k. o1 j; o+ F9 V% w- r1 ]
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com+ ~( ?& Q7 H$ a
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html. }# t8 } m5 A5 L' J
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