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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 3 {& H2 E- M7 @/ T
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat & k3 Y6 R5 |/ S5 a
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US6 o, f) R% J' Z( I% t' U% H
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern9 F+ L4 Q# c- q; @6 r5 G6 ]
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
' ]: {# s; M' h& y: CTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)/ C+ `1 [7 Z" S' C I) [
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
$ j5 `4 c3 a2 e! N9 @4 Oupbeat.
4 [* i e! ?( a9 k; T* A Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded% y3 u1 m+ O; h8 Q
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
0 a, t. A1 g0 G( v% [4 a* qinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real# o9 `$ W% v. ~2 n: N, N
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
+ E: y, P! ~7 U7 D# ]) l% ~representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US." L* Z) e. o/ g: @
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
6 N2 H" n( z- [' X. ^9 zincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.2 @2 t G8 f8 ~
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
/ L6 X/ O' h& ?Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
! l! y3 v$ a4 [: L8 _environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
: z; {' U8 j" T' A: \be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
; p0 x& \' |7 P# C+ Q. t Chighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
* H4 z5 @: o8 ]7 v" ?/ Z! e! p( } According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the$ Y+ L; P, ~7 r' J- k% D0 n1 e
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game$ }) B4 B6 \* i* _
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
( n. B: ? y! n6 e7 [remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US* z* n. q! C2 _8 _
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
+ ^; f1 c% k: Z" f; u' overy good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.4 T$ @( d9 L! _6 Y% o6 v# p
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian& a- Z+ ?/ f3 H1 j
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% X5 R4 V, _* L, _/ L
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land) w o3 `5 M6 ~; S. s
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country' R6 e& L! v: E( u
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating3 ?) C1 m3 c" e$ Z8 u+ p6 O
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The* Y" Z/ f; v# `/ @$ E' C: r7 g! R4 r
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
9 F5 H' B9 d5 G. b2 ^6 y+ L8 ttake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
2 ?0 ]4 _! k# a- h& }. I% Jsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
% }) W9 M! W; T+ L( ]: O Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
5 q1 ~ @* |- `( ~tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian7 ]2 A P% U4 \: a; m
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
& ]4 d1 H' H; T4 K- b! e, m7 shigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting- n4 Q1 E% Y2 j- X* ^4 F
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,; ?0 |* u, y2 v
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental( t: I8 O2 A- X( {/ ^" w
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
( ?, f$ [% q$ G+ E: xwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
8 P! s+ z+ H( l" d- pshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into" y8 t( D P9 s5 }- [% N7 t$ Z
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development; v) ?9 d4 R( T& M, X$ h
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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( O2 U, S! X3 ?/ x$ u0 Q Canadian Markets to Watch" M c( m+ a* L
2 O4 G3 O F! a. [% H The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central4 y3 x$ I0 ^3 |" D
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour$ y$ C# }8 g8 x+ H9 Z
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back2 b* X9 Q7 f8 A) F# U5 J
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
& l3 j! b, V, a0 i& Edowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical: y1 z. _) K$ I8 I; H
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
5 E/ k" N1 d0 d0 x- |* fwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
1 z) y0 z4 \5 c# Eprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
7 e) V0 g/ l3 q. v8 Lwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
4 M1 P1 ]: U" |8 w! T, QToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
( |! N" B5 i1 i1 Mratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.1 z+ m7 o" d M8 d: A4 z6 u# ~
" L M1 s# b" s. l
Calgary/Edmonton7 h2 ]5 ^ |# ?6 `9 R4 ^7 t
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one4 B9 ]( {( e2 q2 q. h# o; c' |4 y
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
! c3 i) {0 g7 e7 J$ ~buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,5 Y0 J- I( _; M1 p9 r
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: d6 \+ |/ m4 N/ I2 QFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
* h5 X' E1 x. d* v; b- `; o2 |Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
& N: Y7 _4 i6 F4 ^Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
% f( r' \! s2 C1 K. X" [, n5 G/ r# xstrong, this market will continue to do well.' j. |- }% T/ Z2 K/ M. `! d: ]) G! v
- k" C9 o, q/ [7 p% G; p# a Vancouver4 @5 ~9 _8 N7 r; k G5 y
- T( s" p- G$ o# R5 A
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
) s* ]% v! J: F5 J1 W+ C5 W' Zbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
. S* `: h5 ]8 E4 y) M2 hreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
, \9 p- _7 @9 |) ^1 P* n8 D6 \5 }4 Fmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
9 v! B8 z% A1 r, Qgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy5 v& Y! \' G$ h! ?& S
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
2 v9 J" D8 r+ {, g" w# @for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
- j. A( i' U3 h0 m/ Q/ n! `6 Cfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very. E6 o6 R* [ U- o( b
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
7 J; F% q) s* ~+ o O) @5 K. o2 t' ~8 _# [- f" K) ?4 t. R7 y
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and3 c! f! e2 E7 U* w( F
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
3 H2 ^3 @2 k8 s; r8 Prelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing/ A W/ X) F& D% W* L
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.! w' l! e; U% Z. p) g/ o6 i8 w. X
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square V* ]4 [5 i+ v/ M
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) ]# b0 r `# E9 GApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
9 w# ~* x3 y2 S8 B9 x, u1 l6 Q/ H" ?
Montreal! G. r4 X4 L3 q
( m ]/ H* Z' m) Q6 W* S! l Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
' W: C- y7 ~- A$ p, |2 i4 @growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up" P8 ]6 P% y( E# C7 w* k
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
6 o/ O% |2 C1 Q' E G: fCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate% ^! y2 d' t# r' g
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors5 @( Q2 I$ ~+ s6 m8 f5 G
higher as a "hold" recommendation.6 E! H' G% C+ d. E! p8 w
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
4 J x2 R1 y6 c+ |7 i5 ]include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
3 b$ O, a% M: ^5 ]; W0 bmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
6 F( q) d0 t( U9 ?* Unear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
8 ?; Q' c3 _! R" I8 l$ soverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current6 y1 }" Y# W3 a6 ~
prices."
8 J: m5 V6 }5 v' L A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
Y; A% E5 Y# X" b# d ]www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre." R ~1 d3 l1 h$ R" ?5 _
4 b) \8 {9 V3 @" s7 C& @! w0 L
About PricewaterhouseCoopers W& W3 @3 L1 N- H+ C
5 U7 c$ ]5 h0 X* O6 J2 [/ S D9 ] PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
! H& v+ e8 ^8 [tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its) o+ R1 N# L8 q
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
' @0 F0 ~) E. }across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
+ n* `* E9 A' I9 E" `/ S) |# V, ]fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of6 J, a& d+ y: J
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its* D$ b0 P+ _% c3 [
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
) k! |: G& h _3 v2 i0 e7 y$ xcountry.
" k1 a' t5 ]" u3 k "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario5 |8 ?5 c3 U+ D* O
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the/ Z8 a8 C2 D' s- ~2 I
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
8 L$ j- R1 l! y$ T* y$ teach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
& ?" ]+ _# R% p( z4 E
$ V( U) }1 a! x About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and( D, a; y' Y7 \& i8 Y6 O
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide$ v/ X" s; D8 Y+ c7 W2 @% j
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
5 E# [+ @2 j0 w" Lthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more3 N% `5 l+ ~' P6 D1 g* k( I
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development1 |" z4 d/ u6 `9 r+ d) p2 A; Y
disciplines.4 \( F/ L) B. J: P
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
9 z3 v. R. b& h! gWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
# |( i; a3 Q' {+ `2 m0 Y6 nCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
! s! f! }8 c# z; O! g7 pnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
. ~' }) L9 L) T/ thosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
6 o' Z. c6 L8 C2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake# m* N4 h, V8 w8 S
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
9 H3 o) o' R- P3 s. sPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
% k, t, F' B- d) p- Z# Fcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
; }0 s! r2 B. B/ Y) qthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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2 B! g, ^# M* R
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,+ y5 G9 ?' ]: t
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com; Z9 H" [1 t1 |& M+ C9 u0 P
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html( Y/ I$ F' O, k
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