Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

: |* _4 T  s& _7 t0 HDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
/ v' y; ]- x: j
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
1 {/ t' q: O& ]+ r! t
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

7 [) `3 {+ X$ d3 _/ DAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
: J' u0 h: p) e; Q5 z# m" H, T; y# m5 h
; `5 e$ s/ @( B, V' `2 C" I- @0 WJul 2007
NA
1 P% }4 h4 x" {1 z" i 2328
# j' Z/ N* n4 u( ~# B4 r: _ 717
- X+ I7 F2 W+ ]; k 442,752
410,000
) f( J* N2 W; K$ o( e8 k% y" |# ~ 320
28
31%
7 I; K+ j( d+ y9 j1 B
Jun 2007
/ A" R7 G+ Y2 }- z# o$ }+ F; n) q NA
9 n; \# ^+ L9 K 2661
1011
  s0 s! ]; t% E  H5 U0 N 442,817
# \! n; s9 V8 u2 P+ Y 409,000
328
22
: @. I2 g; n; ]8 R$ g 38%

( z+ C4 M! c/ N! g/ P$ \May 2007
NA
5 z& D. R8 U0 | 2288
1261
451,216
$ O' G2 z# T, ~6 | 415,000
+ ~2 P; [! ?4 f: l! m  T5 z* c 322
  o& w9 s8 B) l8 u5 w. b 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 k! S! ?6 J0 x$ ?7 U鉴定完毕！

& G% a& g8 t6 l0 p8 V$ N
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' G( p. q! s5 c- L' K3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' F- q7 O5 N+ I5 J) s- S! V) t2 [存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( L( \$ Z6 Y% {$ }/ z  K( {鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
  ^9 y0 i( D  i8 `/ q. \
, H" E2 f# [( L: z( T新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
( t' p1 F" \( S# ]' `
  M7 ?6 O3 v' U8 t) _5 F" [3 Z就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
5 }( p+ h# i3 P8 B! V/ ZHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
( h- u0 C* Q- o( V: R' o  Y) Ngood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
5 A8 V" b: r: j1 ^4 SHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

* b& p' H4 P3 @# X6 F
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" V# ^( o1 u2 [; e6 AIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, W- O/ C/ b( L! pNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

9 D, S# z" b+ x" H/ X$ n6 d0 o6 C- w
0 M" W! R( U4 M$ {1 Y- k  N( `I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
+ z0 r4 E1 F, S7 H: L% Q1 |. J1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
- f) i$ y/ z; v4 ~2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

: ?& t- W8 m2 a% f
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

* Y! E  b7 U! d1 c

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
  e, ]0 \& k( F3 G1 i. o看来，观察days inventory 更重要。