Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 @! H' g0 ~, D; qMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
( _+ G# Z: g% t0 m- UIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

4 J/ @; n! F$ c: LOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
' b; S* i2 {9 [4 { 2328
717
! f1 j1 M3 m0 u+ v" I) E" L+ i7 { 442,752
9 ^8 A) w2 H& K1 L: Y3 H3 F 410,000
; W% \  H9 \! x. w9 `# v 320
28
31%
2 x+ c6 \9 W% x5 [1 ?* l7 @6 y- R& j
+ f' Y, k3 {) R( b' Y: cJun 2007
7 {! A- T/ N- M* I# [& T9 s+ b/ G NA
) e: \8 a0 v8 R! @  z5 e 2661
1011
442,817
: G" N; l! h7 f. B9 ` 409,000
328
22
38%
# y9 z, o( I" j6 M# J: y
May 2007
* }4 S# x7 S4 i$ ? NA
2288
' H7 s* o* u$ M- q; q) V 1261
451,216
415,000
& Y) ], m, Y1 y) X4 k& G- ^9 x+ | 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; v' e% w' P. G( S4 R9 _) `) u鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
, d+ q1 V5 I" w7 o7 Z这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
# Q4 J; R& p( v" C' q& T6 H& N  E; m! x存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; I8 O8 I' x3 U鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ I7 a/ C. h* \; c: f2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
! W  @/ [0 W! r9 N+ H存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
: z& P5 W2 j9 |; d鉴定完毕！

3 X. `4 `6 z) \6 W
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
5 J  d8 X3 }7 {, h. }7 m' ?. {
% L3 `0 z* P' d( f) Q) f8 Q2 j( K就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

' W  ]) I( S% G. |这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

( r3 E( w; R! S$ Z7 D+ e7 P

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ {6 B7 m7 |7 s. n8 {4 wDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
' o0 m9 \2 w4 w5 B2 l/ P& m! g0 [Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
* R9 d: R& D! F4 V: P1 @good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
. u" {6 V& q% A4 M+ K' V) \8 cIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
8 v' P' l5 I% T& \/ ]. @" ^Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
" N7 r3 _' X2 W0 T* AHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
1 _* R5 D2 \+ M" }) c  \' y/ hEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

# Z- O3 D3 k! eQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
) C: J: X3 k' C5 R! c7 ?3 V0 L, u
" k$ j; _; ~0 }; n
+ W+ z" T2 W' o. Y. pI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
2 @$ o4 [% p+ H  K( g; S0 y! [1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

0 Z! s) A8 i3 x  d; v1 H8 h下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


0 n3 f4 X8 \; K/ W$ M+ I
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。