Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
' S) o6 ^5 ]4 Y* Z4 {MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
% W8 p3 ?( K' d. UNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
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Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
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2 Y; r* {. Y6 o* b; M/ R4 f4 rSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

" B$ h" A  J. k( E5 B# [7 gJul 2007
' |$ S- V, v; ~: B% A& q8 ] NA
2328
717
& _9 |" i5 b( ?9 z" m0 D$ `6 } 442,752
410,000
320
- s. h2 ~4 V2 @; U3 F 28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
/ F/ Z  i/ C' y6 r! z3 j4 ~ 1011
4 {5 n! g- G0 |1 o4 t, N- R3 ] 442,817
1 h- Q' R5 ~2 Q0 R' ]0 f2 _ 409,000
1 M# a. W& Y. ?# w3 I 328
22
38%
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! b% t% n4 r  A: y2 AMay 2007
NA
( {# E7 t$ ?0 a( y 2288
$ |6 u/ b8 P+ c! D3 f+ k 1261
451,216
; p1 H* E$ {+ |+ M9 { 415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) b& D' ]8 v: a* t  q4 d' V4 {鉴定完毕！

( T& L4 s# b1 O) B, l
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
( R/ O6 L- M* Q  r存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

$ r/ j# n) d; D2 `# @! ~: S呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
: {/ a, X0 H) L# p  O1 h
9 D# V, u/ |: T, i  e就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
6 c3 J2 r* `1 Z6 {0 M
1 c- j$ B1 T% T- ], E+ L/ @: Q% n这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
+ P& Z" I3 g/ L- o0 M" \2 J- XDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

) e+ r: S  S0 I8 l. b" G: A8 {( H1 ?7 N
, X2 v6 B; k9 I& f; l5 Y% ]" U

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
/ k9 _9 l1 j' S  e/ |2 M, IDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& @3 T' g8 G4 A% Y' B% Q/ Y+ N  d

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
+ A. t) t7 o$ A" S" Z4 E/ z) O9 M9 t+ G. |Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
& {/ p9 [% c" o0 UThat is what i say half full or half empty.
& J# x. q! D5 R* i  P* hgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 D6 T0 O  Z& SIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

7 W0 f5 g5 Q, ~; L, Z% d( }
( \5 N" i/ f  B3 ~I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
+ F  n% @) _$ r! @. \MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
- P3 h  A" K( rNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

7 }, ]: }+ y* k7 qQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
! V" Q6 W: Z. C5 v( N1 Y( z

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
, L- o& r& {, U1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

. m: r$ p4 H- m/ J
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
2 h6 V% ?# L& t: U' a# M


, \- Z  n) m3 P) P. m6 Q( W8 c7 [3 q" \# C只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。