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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
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. g0 i3 k9 d. p: R a' fThe theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:, u3 g2 ^3 S+ g$ N4 r
) F/ D5 E" g/ L* Y% j; E5 J, C* U1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
# r0 L u3 Z7 o9 y9 H4 Y8 A2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
( F+ ]# S' ^: K- Q7 b3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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