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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20079 L0 o1 J0 P5 f F
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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% j8 J7 [4 Z3 @- y8 @They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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$ f) R9 r# \+ \4 J" v8 O' NMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ( |, c) t: b3 A6 T) C1 X8 F
4 W8 K) E2 n2 [+ ?: v$ fBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 2 C: e! Q1 S+ B# e) w6 s' x2 P! D8 Y
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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' G# w; F/ l0 m0 `4 j/ t"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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8 Z- C7 I2 O( W( q7 h4 _8 ?Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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8 y) a4 @4 O# {; @! n"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." , V- n3 q" S3 g# g: \) i$ r( G
, T, [8 {7 v5 X, ^1 b& PStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. : p1 @ m+ \2 W7 g4 O( D
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. / T/ V; Z8 x( ~9 d
7 I) K y$ v+ L6 \. `: q" m% M"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. & G/ t( w2 a f' Z( e
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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* U% _% o9 R' b! eHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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7 ]5 p, r2 |8 v+ C& x8 J" I" E2 F. R7 _Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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! ~6 L) M5 i0 eOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ' o* i* p* Z4 w/ h
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. - i+ m( K3 u4 j- X- P
. ~: x; E' p o' t! o/ m( a) _Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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9 J7 S; d8 w6 q# _" W5 _Previous story: Bottom Line4 M* m+ L& o! B" Z8 M
Next story: Building permits hit record6 W" b" N- @ h4 K/ I
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