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! m+ R- W8 u- e8 ^; c) vThu, January 11, 2007 [! \! J+ z% G9 G! a
: s |6 m% x) K G, ?* z8 MPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
2 ]& g; I, v: u z) G, g$ QBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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2 W2 O' d1 Z4 t7 k: w# f' t, KMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' n: ^; K5 a- M+ \# s# T6 \
9 }7 Y) l/ T) w. z( X& y8 `" RBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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. h1 V: I4 e5 o2 q s, j"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." : W) y: f' b. {! n$ U
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. : X: E5 J" I/ R# p6 N F9 m' u
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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/ N0 t, x1 ^9 i( B5 \: b* G"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 0 q0 ]$ c' y% T% N8 o
/ B# S: } r! DStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. & P# j$ B8 X, I$ B" V/ c8 x
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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# q' Q) D1 _; h/ \, CNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 7 s: \/ T6 f: O9 @$ ^( \
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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2 p3 t q! W# [8 J2 u& f2 q' xSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 2 g' ~+ l$ r5 K2 c4 {
/ L3 h) I! b ?Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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: e) m, I/ O. R6 i/ u1 NLet the good times roll. - ]! K& C( r4 f: V7 c4 Q
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Previous story: Bottom Line
$ c5 D* J( e: l9 H6 V7 `Next story: Building permits hit record
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