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# r# m& V* K' s3 R$ S Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com% n" |& f6 R! b0 t; A: f, p
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# T9 N m0 v x1 [2 t In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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" e7 D& Y; U0 d3 ^# SPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20070 o) k/ f( j3 L. _3 V, L8 J1 A
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. : K) M9 N5 J5 g* y7 X# r/ K
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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3 `2 ~0 K9 O! w' K. E5 |2 ]; KBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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- Q5 A! S$ I1 ` @; d; V+ `Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ( M# S; G# A% D1 t" J
2 i/ L1 G G' C7 Y GShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 3 a. g3 h0 @( U' `9 l* x3 n, |
- u% h$ j3 Q! g8 k* ?* \4 ~"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 2 V$ ?; k+ J. l4 x5 D) K. |
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. * o# X7 t2 L$ @1 `/ n F4 m
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 9 m: d3 ~! w& A+ x- \
* ~ h4 Y" ]5 Z. m"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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2 p/ y/ O. c; P$ p3 B"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. " r/ x0 ?% Y9 o9 Y
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ! |- i a# z# `+ z
' D8 F; ~- O( Z- q# ]/ m' pOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 6 o3 ] y9 v/ j
7 A, T; J. I0 \$ w6 f) P, bHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. # z, G8 s- K0 A/ u, U
2 v3 E$ H8 o* d' i8 m"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 3 {, u, c; x! n3 Y" n e
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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! I2 O9 |( g+ t; i! FYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. # J6 P6 N( L9 f% i6 n9 P
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. , Z" @5 k# K- t5 G- d+ L: t& @8 M
" l0 }+ h3 c P' ? V% BLet the good times roll. 5 V3 |/ y; q- \
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Previous story: Bottom Line; N6 |* ^: {0 J( R: m/ K
Next story: Building permits hit record/ V! j8 O0 K, t6 [. b
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