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0 Z' [# ?2 J" ]) L# v' J# b3 j Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com3 ^6 F( D5 ]( u( q3 F3 j
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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& v. {: \2 q- ^ t$ t! BPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007* t4 y- t+ T6 I) l
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN1 ~3 T4 ^# j, G% x! n N' |
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. & l' v) ]" E4 L) W1 u
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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; l5 n9 r5 H. V) o! x2 QDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' 3 F* [, [6 I# q* Z1 I' [7 {
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0 C$ Y( m2 S; C! }/ z"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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! h; D& \0 k! `# L. D+ R# ]6 y2 xShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. * n8 E: e' O+ O* v# N
, _, X4 U' b. Y7 G5 d! L"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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/ H. a# I. n3 q* qStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ; }# z* F7 u8 y' U& f# b
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. p5 C# g# O1 K0 p+ W
0 s' i6 u9 r1 h$ L$ t% P; x$ \8 k) U"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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/ S1 u5 O* u/ S. i! y$ J* v2 z"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 0 H- t6 J" O0 P. ?7 J4 _% W
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." & z0 J6 b+ f' |$ v {
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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4 Y1 k; C; ?) c: v1 _3 X$ gHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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( y3 s$ I& r# i"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 1 _+ e! D; v6 G, I9 ?
# K: ^% L- g* VLet the good times roll. # l" _* a: ~% O+ E6 [
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Previous story: Bottom Line
; M$ [7 a" A$ fNext story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
