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# u G1 m! y% R3 A4 N, k Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com; D3 y6 N$ e* y
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; Z+ a" l7 l1 e1 [( XThu, January 11, 2007# l2 ?4 I! C2 z) ~& F1 B2 T0 Y
: s8 Q3 [4 B2 m: \9 NPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007+ v" a. q) u$ I T& s; T% U
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN1 p j# H& O! g, S8 O& X
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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, `, T% G2 f& p; E9 h3 z pMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. $ n, X% x2 r, G8 N3 V* v% I
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# F9 R; Y9 K, m: A! i: H"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. b& r3 Z4 d. b$ X9 D F' l
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. - R) t- g( f; ?0 ?" u& v$ B
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 8 |3 b C r# u
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 6 I$ j( Y0 _! i1 j, V7 v1 `
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. / l7 C6 a; _+ a4 q# {+ Z" c
/ [4 y/ g3 F1 A"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." & [$ T$ H* _/ Z7 o" ]8 [
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 4 d" ~1 z7 n! ]& d! O7 n
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. & y2 D5 e) A+ w' U; H
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ( r# ` P7 [) T9 {
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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4 E; A" W% S8 m8 H& O) C( g"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 5 t9 M7 ~, `- J1 U% \; x
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Let the good times roll. + r5 J! [/ d1 c. D2 n. l) I
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Previous story: Bottom Line
/ K- j, `4 O* [1 iNext story: Building permits hit record
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