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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very; J V7 E; k) n; P" `+ @+ D
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
- @9 g l. k; ]( D! g! pwill be going.
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% b* R2 s2 D2 W q# B. QIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
) Q2 E! L7 W, y9 b1 q! o: G1 Q) rsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an3 G$ T* g0 w0 l6 [
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
+ x& j8 M( S& |We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
) Y h! q/ b: |+ dvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
/ B Z: Y; q0 A% y9 v! E9 Whow much.. h9 M* [0 M+ b* O- x
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
, q. j0 t4 X8 @Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very% `6 r( U% d7 {. N* E
strong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest7 R5 x# U/ K' x! t; v
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -1 o# l( L) V) P, P' V0 o+ q" j
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best* X6 V. l. _% B3 j2 b0 W
markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
' k: t. w) h1 E2 s6 S3 H/ Yon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
5 }3 N7 W4 @- {# b# {# F% [+ rmarket continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into/ H# n1 H7 {6 z& y+ x7 O/ }6 |4 J7 W
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
1 p' g O# O- x4 a. Ksaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
c4 [3 X) T9 v6 ]This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
3 r1 W) G1 }2 e0 r* v+ S& zincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
4 a, a7 C/ ?6 s3 ~6 c8 \4 imonths. & }" [ @3 B3 A% j, E) q! _; d) n; K9 A+ s
9 S3 F x3 H9 c( X, rComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
( _: r2 a" _. f0 p0 E7 Xcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying/ W) B- W8 T) U: @: h
fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
- l: }0 ^( Z! z* M! M# [the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait4 f& y, R9 _, \* D$ J1 D7 [
until it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all' S, E6 q( O9 s, B
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
$ Y% ~. X; I# |, w2005 to June 2006), also great news.! n5 ~- X) Z- ]# w
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June/ i3 e9 ]4 q$ j" M, R1 r5 D' V
2006 New Housing Price Index for:( V: B) L) B- b$ E
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Vancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
4 O1 e2 n; z* k; O1 v4 M: O, {Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%
8 C/ k: U) ^& T+ B+ A1 _London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%5 K$ t9 l# j4 d# [* _4 W/ A
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%$ }% T' H, u2 l, O# y% a$ M
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%3 t8 x( { ~3 t y. `
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
8 B w$ t( y; ?0 dOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%5 K3 @+ C8 L; T+ K/ |+ Z6 U6 p
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing. ~- b- @8 w* R& T/ |6 b2 V4 f6 {# w7 {
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
4 a5 Y8 {4 ^" J0 Gbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not* K9 \) `1 a; {! Q9 X
only across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are2 D8 o, `' p1 [: c; X; v$ q
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to. a5 c- J$ I6 ?! V8 B+ a9 s* j
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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( N1 ^& b# ^6 R* [Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong) ^; }( ~; _3 L4 V" V \8 I% H' B
fundamentals:
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- W5 M- I- _3 e6 G) I: W! U0 I1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
5 j( G* m+ C# h# |, f5 o, hCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth
8 @5 f+ }) _6 U( L% qfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
& p4 s- J- \+ \% g/ p' lthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.0 l% c' c a- V2 F+ f
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2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the3 }1 d% `3 x$ v4 s' t5 {# P% ~- l
world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
2 S- }3 R. ^6 j; l4 nthe US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
# ?( x* U+ g+ H$ M$ B, |that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. ) m9 Q4 U3 P! x" Z$ [
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment, T" m: Q+ ^! X) T2 D9 I& W
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
; X/ o y9 m l# QDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after5 V; R) X1 K; O* m% Z- J
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
! |% s; L9 E1 Manywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again3 Y- B) Z$ d$ p8 K
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
' w2 V6 ]! F$ G( S) Q; H4 Xpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can* j) D6 w! s7 y2 i$ u6 Y# e
beat it for long term investment.; M6 M- l6 F5 Y: a( O% Q3 C
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4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely# {1 U4 H, N+ B9 J3 n+ O8 h9 M
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job/ A4 S* L3 d5 }& ~: t
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)5 b% J9 c) R, E6 r: ?$ S% C5 L
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since. O7 Y/ e2 o3 {8 a" @5 N8 r& k
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... / N$ b$ ? [8 |" P& f) c
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Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the9 L- t% g( T$ z( m4 D
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the) G1 U* H# q: [$ L7 D1 Y5 H- t
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of8 _" a" T3 c) k
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
8 e* @" [& ~) A ~, j0 D; irepeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
( f, t) z, B. D$ a0 @' d) vits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at, B% J7 m; G9 b2 x+ X* v' R
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
H: t! a- n7 `4 _of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
5 e6 H) [5 R6 C0 Vwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong, m. H E% v$ c! o4 j! ?% _& N& K
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
9 x7 q, G/ M, F3 J P'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do9 X# ]: @% W9 B, |* k9 E, ^ c( P
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
: i9 l5 W( b! c$ P+ popportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
% @) Q. y! |& G& d'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared; p- b* u' ^7 V! j9 _
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.9 s8 ~& P2 L- t/ X
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' ?1 u! I; Y* j" f& _5 J. KCapital Gains Comparison.
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* ^4 k! i' z7 w$ D) B8 [. m/ L# s8 AKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial4 p, b, g2 D; ?9 `+ [; V
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see0 [. o7 [, L- |$ @5 F9 `
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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7 n [8 d! q! X2 c% RBC . . . . . . . . 21.9% z4 b# n* ^6 O3 q4 B/ |
AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%+ n- p& z9 o) x+ [% p
SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
$ ^. j B" G* k+ MMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
/ \- Z5 w) H* ^; uON . . . . . . . . 23.2%% Z! {/ \! t$ Z, N0 |/ ?; Y
QC . . . . . . . . 24.1% E/ y- u1 ]+ t% I' A# ~
NB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
7 M3 \4 V: O. s* _! K% TNS . . . . . . . . 24.1%
" N* x/ g+ j3 uPE . . . . . . . . 23.7%& r" V" p: B' ?2 v5 e1 k" T% L
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%; K! M, B( a' G; C: b* p) K" d
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
# ^$ z4 }/ t3 G6 V8 c" g3 U# C- @economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of0 A5 B3 P. `3 \7 G% F% s# z1 E' Q8 n
their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.
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# [! I; c. A& X; S* D- p; }, UOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
1 a5 L0 @; l. _) M7 _5 ^opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
4 r" o7 x3 k$ D# a$ s* c2 dcourse, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only', n" ?7 l. W" L
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
6 X E6 ?! e/ E2 G) b2 rwhen you take action as a full REIN Member.( I7 \2 O9 p" V
9 w& _! [; ?: d) i, WFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
9 m- b* W/ `, Z* A- uresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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