宗教將在九個國家絕跡

2012AD

澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197
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22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer
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Science and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas

. J/ g) \- N! Y3 Z" d" x, mA study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.

The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.
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  Z% m' Y+ M/ l' S8 C& oThe team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
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* G5 b$ ]2 }& J( @1 T' k, SThe result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
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$ N8 g! ]- E- L+ H" @The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.
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Their means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.

One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.
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At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.
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\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.

- B5 Y3 C' K5 _9 K\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.
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\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"

8 |) r0 ~8 i/ p/ R1 l( nDr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"
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; S8 l: t2 X5 m' X  e8 d3 OThe team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.
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They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
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, @  A+ {4 w( g* ]( f, p7 L  JAnd in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.

However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world.

+ R  J; D% \' G* `\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.

However, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\".
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\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
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\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\"

2012AD

基督教在大多数西方国家已经走向没落。现代基督教的发展主要是靠蒙骗落后的发展中国家。

Onesimus1970

2# 2012AD
0 p$ o+ s% C4 w: U什么时候在加拿大绝迹? 我们好把宗版给关了.

路德使女

You don't need to close it, it will be expanding for ever.

historian

1# 2012AD
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( ^( Y' t8 w) ^7 o5 S7 C! s3 B不同意。人脑存在，宗教就存在。

tigerkiller

看来是在国内的时候，政治和哲学没学好。连事物的发展是螺旋式的都不知道。什么事物的发展都是有高潮有低潮。哪有直线式的。