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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" F+ v' m$ F# I/ {$ E( {. k TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
) r! o. r. g& a+ Emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
7 ?& V1 C$ x/ ^) _4 Pgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 U8 i3 m0 B" C7 e% V. ?( h
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" K" L8 S( R$ Z+ z0 ~ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! Y9 j- ]. G rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( Q0 M! U$ Y% ~, B: f2 Iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, G& S: Q% g4 W: c' Q: dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& ?3 `0 Y& e' e- Y1 \% a$ @' t RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is) j' ?$ r- u1 s/ S! e' K/ Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, q$ D* l; y9 G! f7 V
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. g/ H* K' j# ssustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ a9 [9 n% O1 w0 } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 ^9 V3 V5 g2 F4 Z( O& cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ ?' Z4 s, W, b% d L) t$ ^ u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; {% F- O+ Z3 q1 }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- O L- W' o; X) |. w' nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 j! S. F# F% @; ~) \. ^+ X
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 d0 q1 H4 M0 A& c2 } According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: Y! ?) J% v/ f4 K5 E
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 D/ W. i9 L; P( j3 A6 wthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 T; }( I# M1 S) d+ khistorically depressed levels.$ x* }4 `' N0 Q0 r7 G& A9 X g
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. d4 i K- K/ W, i4 M, ]0 I
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 S2 [4 ~& F. ]- {1 Y
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( G7 i' k6 ^! A) x5 [, V5 |
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, ?( Y; _1 s: m2 b, Q; G) A9 eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# W0 ^0 Y5 `" | h* z. x: }months ahead," added Hogue.
' N; u; E. h' K- W1 p8 p" g' O7 w RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 b' I( q0 n: m4 ?" X2 p8 {
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& R0 ~* J8 M' S42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.8 W( M# g9 h" F6 j& f' E
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# H w+ K6 r; W# @) E: I
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these! M( y% T% }3 m1 }4 g
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 V5 B% h& y6 K5 utakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ D2 j7 U9 ^' L
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
k2 G2 C' k0 Z+ ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
/ J e4 c- W# Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented) d/ y+ L0 e8 w3 z3 h3 P
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 b* m- _" f5 x5 d2 q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
( |+ q$ p/ g q; ]" SFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( Q1 _$ v0 i0 |. ~; g5 ]" D% Q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; O5 f. @2 {1 f: a4 M0 m! ]0 p
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 U/ s9 g7 m! S3 P2 e$ j b+ P; J7 g3 ?
<<$ U5 J3 J0 |2 h& M) a) ?( Z1 T1 N
Highlights from across Canada:
% j, j9 \& _: \/ d: j- w+ S& |0 i4 Z6 w2 T" m0 V
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* G4 V+ m0 X; n ^
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing& T E( C* A& f; b
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, l6 n) I0 w; _$ y- @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% V6 V9 K+ H0 k2 N! C: p! M$ g
since about the middle of 2007. _6 t# ~8 B0 r$ D O' {! ^
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% ? L W9 D. ?. o& I" P frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( p5 o1 z V- F C! K decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! f# x- L( N! [' ]1 Y9 f$ I# }- ~! }# a8 F largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ u$ A$ R! N0 N5 G: I7 Y! o poor affordability levels.( ^' r7 }0 B I
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
; ]( Y6 u: x6 }5 J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 z, r* i( w/ n6 @: ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.) |3 W/ n6 x% F3 J' g
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 a1 f! q7 U* } ? minimize any downside risks.
; i' G. i2 F M) ~( N- d2 ] - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 {* [- E% k V$ W+ R$ p
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ B. v3 }; Z% P unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early" g, L% j0 Y" l, A/ W3 w$ a
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# a/ T- ]3 \ ?( v4 L
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. u \) Q; M7 F$ n" I$ P6 C) S6 }
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, Y H3 i/ Q0 a. |6 d D
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 }; Z7 E. {- w" \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up; J: X! Z& b$ v) o
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
( ^, w3 I, M4 i9 l' ^& k ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 B' j. l% y9 H modestly in recent years.
% L/ i/ H6 {' L - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
9 G% r# k" _( w( y' }8 {% c# G general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot: N: W1 R: m( f2 r5 n4 u# V
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward7 S, f9 o4 x2 X, P
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" C* j- S9 s: I, r following two years of deterioration.
% w/ y1 ]1 L: m5 `( b >> |
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