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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * S* J1 |, i8 h: T- M+ f
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
# v6 b( C2 i. O. Z( r8 pmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* b/ t+ w! M( l4 f2 igains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( L1 T5 ]( J+ K
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- z/ I! V* V" z- X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 ~4 L& |: R+ @' B0 P6 Bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; U) J& ~1 x+ k# p0 U( |improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! s7 P3 K# r& p+ l! s, nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 A: `8 h7 C9 N& U0 J j, [ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is0 E- e E5 ~% @4 d P7 t8 S
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% M) ? W+ o5 o+ A9 u A* E- Lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- N+ }. m! V8 _/ y
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. B( h: h. k- _& s6 N The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 @: k( X; P7 s
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 y5 @% @" g7 z* {7 q6 B1 @8 mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 v; i6 D, [) s$ N: U. d
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, z0 s3 ~$ v T1 z8 ?" I V% lstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" v% u# U7 ^+ |* j' X- z% j
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ y" s% }6 ~- j! d: o. [7 U5 @ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% e9 M' s/ ~/ _' k
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 R! ~+ D' d5 |1 ?% i/ o6 Athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 I1 ], b% y4 Whistorically depressed levels.3 m$ u+ R1 ~# e2 H4 x& C
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( {" Z8 u9 K: r0 l Bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 e7 s5 Z" a. ]& n+ k( E
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 |2 S& i9 n& A2 j( R* x$ T# v
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
1 h: Y6 ?( D% Z1 w& `# Oenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ N! @7 `1 S5 W' s- u: y
months ahead," added Hogue.# F7 X z$ F: A/ J# |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 _, R* k' N$ D! e0 G
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary U8 j. J7 s, H6 l+ R
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ ^5 r( f! ~" j; n1 }( K7 T
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 R+ h3 S+ z7 Q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 }2 s& q z* U' ?5 q2 F# k4 {cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 s7 J4 U3 | B! Ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' a) m9 U* m# A5 E* H) E+ V
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 ?" G- u) \( v, t% [
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% r' ^# @4 i5 k7 H* _2 {7 |
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" ^/ I4 C. U" k1 |including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& \5 `) S" Y" K- S4 Q2 y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.- R: x8 [- T9 t5 y4 S
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 [$ j, ?2 s( ~
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 E, H1 i1 z. e1 a3 E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' K1 E, ]9 O$ W+ |2 g& z9 ]" g
0 ?0 _: w6 }; [: l5 M& J
<<7 d* E x. ?8 S0 ^
Highlights from across Canada:: E+ A* u# k" ]7 q) d/ |9 |
3 ?0 K5 a* P) v# r" J+ }& ^" T& [ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ l* k6 I/ N: R( h0 v
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; A8 H' ~3 R' u
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
+ |# E' o2 L: h1 p* h( } only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" S8 N& O! v$ H. ` since about the middle of 2007.9 D( M1 _2 X) y5 |
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the8 K; W' Q5 t( m
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' J9 _% I2 R0 U' R" k- S# D
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) h$ y/ L0 W- C! ~ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& Y$ [ W3 D1 ~% U6 ~: k! D poor affordability levels.) c1 T. Q% t/ O d/ @7 l6 T
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ p1 q2 @3 u- v# D: r4 k% f4 |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 q8 \% s; A% u7 q3 l9 u
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 c A$ d: Z' x3 S+ x. h. Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
3 a! M) F2 u: } Z) _ minimize any downside risks.0 f- R" ?7 |( j+ R/ ?
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 o. o7 h5 W% I* i3 ^: F+ O
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
- y# b# o5 g( x- L( r: l- v unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( {* O2 m9 l: }5 W3 {- K0 J9 V9 m
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 ?+ I/ X3 Z# k% t( o5 v. w+ p& Z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.( O: }+ H# O( |1 x5 ]
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
$ w% L1 g5 t5 F, X1 L ]( @' E4 G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ [, P% R; x O4 F7 k# ` far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 u$ N3 `: z' q; I5 i8 `4 C
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 G, b- U& W3 P( E0 t" Q8 ?* G
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ q1 Y" t+ l$ j6 T [
modestly in recent years.8 l7 x: O j* U
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) @! i8 t5 ]1 F1 w, `8 W
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 z$ s1 V! H2 `4 ^% V% L- g* [4 _) Q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' |2 j3 t+ s- b, o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 R* K" Q% {! H1 p5 @# W
following two years of deterioration.
' U! u# R- K3 ~! G1 Q: d0 @ >> |
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