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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ' o. L. w1 g0 e/ E
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' Y9 T! B! A/ ~0 Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" w- l I4 w" f8 ]5 y& N" A; q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) N. b' i5 b( I: \, I& Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.5 W& W$ X1 E; q5 Y1 E
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 p( J3 K# Y" E( Csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* S4 c+ x) W! W
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: d* \, T( I4 h$ i3 V) L
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ f- P0 y- E- B% G8 M
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! l' k4 `) ^- R8 M: d; X' Q" x Bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. }5 \/ A" I- Q3 o) i, Xwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have1 s9 L' N* W- @
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 R$ h- u. z z0 O The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( n3 |6 V- V: }3 }: Yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, N& A6 ~6 |. j% @. o+ r3 ^home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: n; y: H# P- I) y' k
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' l: \# F- R: N" `standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
+ J1 @ V5 @1 X- {4 J! T! I2 }the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ p, ?7 w+ t! v3 [6 F$ q& O
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets0 O8 e, C3 ^+ f/ ?; v
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* r" U/ M7 z' c/ q* t& D
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, I }) }( c. Y- Z0 ^ A( J5 {: y
historically depressed levels.6 ]/ L$ P0 b5 \" L
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& |/ b) r) k5 t1 D1 s, ]
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, g7 B' R! }# A) p+ [2 I; i1 P
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# B/ W. C. Y8 M: l `1 T
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ {% z: f: m/ Z/ N5 w: z [enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; M( w1 `2 b2 T. e' l, i' Amonths ahead," added Hogue.% K0 H: V0 R: W
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
% t4 i0 _/ q2 ]8 Y5 N2 m7 Ucities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 A: C1 i; q1 o( c: V o! l( x
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. h2 P3 U6 U- T$ @8 v
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' |8 M1 o- y8 {: }4 b6 O7 D0 wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
e* p* Z& Z& s* d: {: ~# `cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ G2 {' Q% _1 B$ M J- Itakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" }* K) `- K6 S+ O8 N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ |/ K( e9 Q3 g. c6 `9 E
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 }- E% Q6 L& kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
; C/ D0 r# b$ }/ |+ N1 Q3 aincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( B0 ~$ x9 U6 [% v2 ~
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, D; d6 \& z) t. E; A+ j- r) o$ k7 HFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# Q7 Q$ v2 a' @' u! M5 [
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 m$ W$ }+ I! c& U& hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
7 u. d$ K' ~- m0 v9 |2 \; U% r5 E
. @( @, |: u0 y+ o <<
& c# S2 X8 p4 j9 ?+ E6 L Highlights from across Canada:
8 P* n, W9 t4 d" I7 V
1 z- ]9 I8 X1 Q3 r* N8 J' { - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 k. O( y! ~7 L; y- p
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( J$ D7 X ^$ }# C1 G
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& i0 X# G6 L7 C# H only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* W- A% M g& H# `; [. K2 } since about the middle of 2007.8 f1 T6 ^: H' x* d+ I. N
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 w! }' N8 n8 o2 C3 d
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) z, l) f8 l' ^3 Q% F decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 C7 V" w. j$ T( z2 \
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely2 ^7 q9 `2 L' ] {3 x# }
poor affordability levels.0 `& A% q! u. z, v+ w# A& y9 N1 Q
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the5 t) c0 ^ Q: k3 k! g$ n7 _
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
2 C% u) h. @6 G- ~! Z. ~ r! n+ W prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
) L# _1 \! o) \$ r8 K1 K1 {( o4 [% U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* d9 c0 v" U/ q" G: i; Y/ v, _
minimize any downside risks.
- W1 T4 e3 N) c4 M& Z' z! Q - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ b3 A- d! @& W' c& S8 ?. A3 ?
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is( ?) }# R; V" s1 y0 Q; O
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' t+ N: A/ g" b3 C; z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
+ C9 ?! ]/ O, R4 w/ n$ t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
; o) e5 b7 ]/ k$ E1 K0 ] - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" T- ~! N7 j% p; h) A' L* S
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& q0 x; Z; O, I! ~" F& f
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! J2 [1 o) _+ e0 \& I3 l5 O# c reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ H! F$ E0 c8 P# z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 |6 f7 F$ X6 i; ?7 V% g5 }
modestly in recent years.
7 V' x" h1 x6 C* T - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( y) r+ I( V0 w' ?& m& k, o general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 e* M7 U) p. ~4 q6 P4 w0 `. |
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- L. y8 }# X8 X; o) X/ \ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ n: j, f$ B! u8 Y following two years of deterioration.
& e4 Y. I& E. R% e3 B; ]8 U >> |
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