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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + v8 f( E( p* P* E4 O
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 G3 Y, b5 {( E4 S; G6 D+ U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! }) _6 T. m2 y, z8 H# J
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# V. E9 H1 }! \
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 y$ D, ~6 G- _) e5 N# g5 h
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", s3 |, D1 h4 c0 Z3 U& h
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: @6 a0 r8 V- g) f/ y t
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
]% {; x0 V) l9 c0 y7 Mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
7 I. d! [# Q9 b% i3 x) U1 P3 \ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 J! O! \; E' c' V: T2 O
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 H$ L. H4 u( x, |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ O7 b. g2 Z/ m8 H7 V4 X. c
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: o: }" U& M; V0 }+ `7 S8 U' H The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# a5 H0 f; I; }' U. L4 kproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 J0 \$ N# }( h
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 G4 ~- F" r, _$ Y" p7 m# m
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" G% ~1 H" D0 b1 H
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
8 T4 L6 E& }! T S5 h6 z$ [the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, M8 H0 |- f- l According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 b8 f: u! }" F% F1 g6 s, M
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, v; q% W9 ^, T/ D9 Ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* ], v8 z8 O/ H8 [# p2 s7 D& {
historically depressed levels.& l H! j) Q7 D, T( h& i
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 W7 s. {5 w" Dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* K8 ~7 A$ W9 w3 D* O# T
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 x( N) v/ N8 thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! Z) v. ^3 @2 O3 z5 yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
i# }; e i, imonths ahead," added Hogue.# X' r. D7 U D3 b2 j! X' R7 |6 Z
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest/ k0 V$ Y2 U5 n
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
6 S! q7 t; d& y/ \, I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* ]! S J X Z: o The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" Q5 \# a' Q8 b5 ?) q2 {! }. W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) I# C$ B$ n$ Y" h, ]
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 W! D5 _, `# F9 c7 k8 a: ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 y1 c% e9 l' p* G* j0 k# e; L# l% d$ t
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
?1 G4 r7 H @, e( g/ Ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 T3 y/ x& p' \0 C. I. M( fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 W6 v1 K: h- K! pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 p8 T2 ^; U1 _; C/ {& e2 u/ Ncondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
' j6 L' p, `' Z) M0 Z$ iFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ b8 x- h5 t& x3 K0 p |
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 m9 c8 F7 [" G3 u# P) P! ?per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.4 @- n" J- V5 |7 k
0 G4 |4 p* c5 V& l) b <<
: I+ m# u* g! C; h3 w4 c0 L( p Highlights from across Canada:
" s6 g, E/ L, R( z% H0 M
# V* o/ I$ m8 ` - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 B' H7 r! ?5 L' P intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ b3 R6 v1 N) O5 n3 p
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 i" J% t( l. G \: t; M+ @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
6 ]9 ^7 T: q# j) q% [ since about the middle of 2007.1 |8 j7 [6 H* { ?2 m J. j! }" O
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) y7 n# U3 g5 }5 s frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. q# L( u6 r) {2 a! H8 D
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ k2 _* E, d9 K& O9 y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ v) o' N0 n0 E4 }: X" A+ A; C
poor affordability levels.
\; P: |; {& x& O D! ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) U2 R k+ E. i
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& O! k1 X2 s; K# S% b1 I
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ g# ^5 ^8 c- V Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 ?9 y" @& m; X c$ \, e. Y' e
minimize any downside risks.. B/ z) S7 f- J3 ^1 r! j
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. ^. S& N+ Z1 M/ Z. X! s; [
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 b% H/ f$ x. C1 L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 X6 E8 n* W$ C9 V% q3 _! J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. \1 N" e2 f$ {# X being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.# T+ I% m7 G7 S6 v4 Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 o4 I! h. g+ ^+ z' u& i Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# u# O, z* H$ A% C5 A7 s
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- `0 r& s# V6 G/ r: X5 ^1 c7 y$ a reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! E: e6 i9 Z+ e o& a, @ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 A( z! l/ @& i0 s6 ~
modestly in recent years.; {) u0 X$ z1 n' g/ a
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
J9 \, P4 k, ?. h3 }9 J) j6 [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; ?* r3 k/ S1 E* v spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; g: i4 f* z }5 E! X2 H& J K; \; F2 T! r price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 Y0 i' m4 |, ` following two years of deterioration.# y/ M7 [2 O1 J* d' J9 z0 D5 a
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