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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 L; X3 @, F; `0 T7 H6 _) B4 A5 f TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ E. z" H- M* x# F- _) H/ O. D
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( O5 u# i, q: I& Xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' f R9 @% ~5 O9 [2 B8 k! g) j5 {according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 u1 l+ L' T/ C# i0 T" t
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 h, b" s9 h# `said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( {! O( |3 B# u0 B; S# F9 aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 N" r: }$ S0 imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; t0 W5 U" l2 Z6 ~0 X; P9 F RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! G+ ^/ }+ a# i4 O, m6 pworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 ^, N% Q1 c* U- O
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( L" v& |% Z& ?9 h3 T) Y/ isustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.- T& E( O: [! z1 a
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ D4 s ^4 A+ T' y, A5 M* J" _. Z: |
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: x# a: a6 r: _, m4 [7 s* H/ Ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 a0 n6 @. W. V
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 q+ l. I7 r1 z+ _" wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and. {0 p0 A0 `5 f' D! `* x* {
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
5 U9 G8 e! Z! Y, N. M( T According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- S( H4 }: q- P0 u) Y- ~
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 g) h& I% u/ h; f: u+ {the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ P! @" h' R# H1 T+ {0 }0 ]historically depressed levels.
) u0 q4 ]1 |. P i9 O# z f3 R6 g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 b2 S$ _# @" S7 O) h2 F& {
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ I0 s0 I% t7 E! T) b$ M
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the. H: d( [# b" g2 Q! h
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 J; l2 m0 `6 v- denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 ?3 v' A5 R" e* smonths ahead," added Hogue.; a( n2 O; d/ \; \1 I% d8 o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 b: j( L ~0 j
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ \! Q h7 c9 W( u$ b P" p42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 ]% d/ F0 T- M' W The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. a P% U+ P/ b2 u' D9 L1 n, ?
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
; U5 T# e5 {$ B0 P7 z, i0 J, |$ l! vcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 S+ ^1 q( @5 ]% {% z: D/ q& E( Gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( p* m# G4 x- }, N& s The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ |6 R* ?2 G0 U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 T6 B9 _, k+ }/ _/ v! d, @5 |benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# x5 `" g3 _1 F/ |- J
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 b% i, L( g4 F$ c/ J7 a! w
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ M8 L7 l( P9 H6 K" a2 y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
4 V$ r8 Y+ u, v- g! H' e9 `costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 P' v1 ]3 V3 M, _5 G5 e
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 h: x" ^4 U6 F0 c. Q$ ?- o1 z2 B2 S4 F+ f+ |( x% G
<<
4 P I- b! N0 p) Z Highlights from across Canada:: w' ?2 ^5 ^# ?1 c! T: t/ p
! Y4 h8 P1 G0 |1 j; E
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 G& o7 a# E1 Q7 {- k intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 y G! L, l4 ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! i5 i+ T/ h1 A9 S only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 U$ V5 I( T; o: N6 ?; w% I since about the middle of 2007.
1 s, c: Q4 ^, R: f - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
1 ~( L3 r" d7 L- J frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 G9 A( S+ J! _5 _3 N$ e5 G decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 v, \) Q- O# y8 K largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
+ ~+ n% X/ [1 X* d2 d poor affordability levels.
5 N" a) U: `$ x; P+ ~7 [( L - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 R( Q0 E, n! F' J3 x0 T9 b
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 n4 Q& C0 L" P. l# B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ A1 o$ r' V8 @4 @ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& r! g: `+ F+ m8 o! P
minimize any downside risks." Z( H! T" M2 D% Y* V5 J
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! A r5 K1 j$ L, t: B: f9 [ X
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) b5 x9 s$ v9 i- c1 B- @6 X9 a unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 g6 D2 C4 |2 ] {/ F: U 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 T: P! h$ c6 T5 @ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ @. R% R/ F5 \
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in g$ r# g: j# ?$ q( ?
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
( @6 O$ o: x/ K: Y, S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% |+ h$ D" i! d& P* X: Y( f4 K! o2 t# |9 H+ T reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' U$ y% q6 c% e R( \8 f
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
' t5 N- M0 ?, r: Y modestly in recent years.
$ E- o5 X9 o) o6 W& l - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 P, k7 P% H/ u) b% m
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
6 l5 |% C$ x( w8 M. F/ d% ^ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; l+ v8 V4 R7 `6 s3 D: V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 Z+ s/ E2 r1 ?9 r" I8 x* X3 ] following two years of deterioration. q# e; S& @& e2 l* P
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