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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( \& o7 f G% c; C0 a" ?
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: V% P9 n/ Z/ ^. y$ O
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ N1 G! M/ n, I [5 @& jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 m9 F( m2 `6 ]* q3 B; j% uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 [! r* D% [# c0 Y1 ], \! ^ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( H4 a, _+ M) C; P" R) Rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is; x7 [' _% r& ~" T0 \ l5 D$ H
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" y8 x* @7 d; p* [' K7 |* o" [0 c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; `3 s1 H, ?- U. O# `, q# f RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! j& k8 G+ P& J! g- F
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: o l% F. ~( v4 Mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 O( ^- }5 y1 Z2 l' k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. u1 e S# Y- R S# J
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; W" X( K& R! _( g% R1 ~proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 v* J+ R( N' N4 V |home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 o$ Z! k/ b! ?( w( R8 i. WAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 W( A; T7 s# S9 l; |7 s* |standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 y3 t$ W) F3 t8 Q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
Z2 `2 V8 v# ` o0 G' v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: H8 d6 B8 d8 Z5 [2 Dmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 O8 O2 A; M* P/ l* a1 c* F/ ]
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 ?) {* r; [% w P; q8 p' [
historically depressed levels.
6 I) Y0 n% K! ?/ J7 U7 N4 e Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, h9 n8 R- p: P- {" n) fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
: |* s+ a: i4 [* b: Dprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' ~ \" h$ N: ?3 S- K: N
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This# E( p) q+ ~6 H4 J3 Q& o* E
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# @6 T$ y) i. ]7 Kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
( h! T6 ~. O' L. w+ f RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; @/ ~1 D0 Q1 g% B! i# t
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, N+ ]* C1 I( ~# W* f
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 ^& D1 B R+ N* o6 s2 C; G The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: I% C0 E* ]# h9 n; S/ I1 j' w, _
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 f; `) z: ~* d) D
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 F: W5 d# d0 d8 p: U4 K- @2 a( Rtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. [: K- B9 v) J2 _3 j# V8 u The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 ^% f1 R; E, n& L! ]
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' O& G! @- C P/ j2 s* u3 e* j
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# { J, w' L; f9 Q5 U
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( S. e1 L: h0 L$ j) w# r5 N
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
. i3 ?; @8 Y$ XFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
4 d0 K9 j# O# H) N- K4 n3 B7 I6 xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 K9 y, Y' A) f: Q% S" q. j
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 {/ y# J' j7 C) g' S$ k/ L( g' m' {8 H3 j0 H3 p8 I
<<$ K2 v( c' Z4 z- X+ i
Highlights from across Canada:
# a; I0 B! _! x
) P4 a- b6 c+ A3 X5 b% ] - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
. @! c, I3 ], b2 w) ? intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ d* {0 N/ F+ {$ J
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; U) f$ U" _& o! g5 |1 S; m/ { x
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' F$ i9 r/ F6 o8 {2 D
since about the middle of 2007.
! K8 }; Z) N5 u( c+ R5 Y - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# e- t8 J7 m$ L# R$ E frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- v/ K# Y3 I; K4 Y4 C; a; `6 j decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still) f8 q0 n+ t2 k) l
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 p& x' C' z8 O
poor affordability levels.
% J. G/ T; {1 P8 G* D - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ Z& m! z" Q" G6 [* u: b1 ~+ Q vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 N/ ~5 x! B! ~) C$ B6 y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 s M4 X/ E2 M* m* A7 [% B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 c, n2 ?- v D. P/ @
minimize any downside risks.
6 f( X" t1 Q# j0 ~% E - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! b2 z6 `6 N& P+ R4 e conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, m, ~7 d. e& T$ q+ w; v( C unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* f2 S; k$ k) w6 F, ^2 d7 X
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 E: @! I8 _7 e) k/ z- A8 u
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: q" o; A8 a" Z$ w0 D3 A - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, d+ r# z! ? t Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ l( M( n% @! O) g0 d- G far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 z/ h9 _, G! I; h3 P/ ^. w reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be( s! [& {4 M# t# r! W9 [3 [
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only% y' U" V$ t$ l6 e5 ~
modestly in recent years.
+ l: `; n' ?# ]. _ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; u+ h& y! O5 g! G2 h0 N7 l# D general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 S/ _& e! p4 H% C5 C, h; ~ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward7 `% Y! _3 k! H2 ?( L3 X
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 H5 P' o9 {2 H1 Z# s4 l8 `
following two years of deterioration.
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