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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
' X4 i m/ x5 r9 a6 j! D5 u TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 O4 ^+ m* W" x4 D% O8 D c
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
; ^2 T# `* ?2 S2 ~" c: C& o5 ^gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
9 [( u. B2 I& v" J7 w8 Zaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 z z) F. K/ j& L; _ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! r. N1 @3 R! B" _; \' M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! Y4 O' O$ E( ~; n$ X5 g8 Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 X/ B: G6 i6 U: D! ]8 `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
6 h" y' r, J/ a2 K3 K2 M RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. p8 G' r4 S4 Z$ |3 @4 z/ C
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: O8 ~4 D& u1 K9 K& S; D8 G' H% I+ ~
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have, O' a M- h0 }4 h$ g u0 L
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 ^6 n* S+ z: O; \9 C2 Y Q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 J1 g. S, ^/ i, V1 @: i* c5 {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, f$ O% X2 v3 w" o/ x/ ]+ hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 l' g+ U5 U" H
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' p7 T/ }% C2 k3 L: Y/ z$ V
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and. R; J* O& h6 i; ]. B
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
! H, C& _5 n! S* n According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 O: O E+ w0 y, e4 L
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. z+ P# K2 W" c1 Qthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at [ m4 W8 N: B b
historically depressed levels.4 t9 L* Y4 J, |* b* d& R
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& P. I. l C7 N9 l5 {
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 @8 w( o" a% f' n: sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ Q0 M8 r8 W# S2 { [0 hhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- @* @4 E' J! o( b; {# g
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* q0 f( Y$ Z/ l0 Z) D
months ahead," added Hogue.
, c2 @# J: M- A) K0 s6 L a RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- J. H2 P. N3 `0 _
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, o: A- {! G7 k7 B" E4 T9 C/ x" b
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
" s+ P" {+ b* J9 k1 }" b, |: o The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% ~$ i, C* \' h; w9 R- Z: U
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: M/ Y* X: R/ ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 j. m4 ]# |' K( H- atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account. A! S' S. d9 N, E% A* X4 \6 k( Z+ C$ C
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 C- H$ T& {0 Z; r6 E" Q! I/ X8 m+ g
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) c) G1 q- R3 X) {( pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 [9 Y, d2 m( l2 |2 Iincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 @! c+ A$ o! Z8 |4 V* q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 g6 o9 T- z/ J6 S* d D+ M SFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! ^( R2 v2 _, @( o1 z9 ]costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
D1 a2 `8 g, N. Kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 @ s( L. e( s- Y$ F1 o# i) w4 G
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: u1 e( z% D) k8 \$ K, Y- ]: Q Highlights from across Canada:% A4 V# ? H% M5 d% ^/ @3 g
0 C+ t3 F M% S0 Q, R( _$ C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
' h/ @/ o$ W- o3 d) Q% \: t intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
O V8 h# Q% G. t. G2 e% `) c+ ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound, o/ }9 n+ u9 B. F
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 f- ~0 D4 P# ~' o since about the middle of 2007.
: H: E! G6 n6 k8 t! _. }3 ` - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, X: |$ @/ `4 M; L* W( X frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to$ r. l9 L2 }; U; Q+ K( E
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
0 N# b( `$ o7 Y9 K2 `8 F largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; z% ^5 C0 w$ c- R3 l poor affordability levels.0 B* t& h: J {: c! \
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the ~+ L6 X/ ~+ l& h% z- G
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
1 s5 v1 @5 x4 p% u2 `& w% L prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 ]: M O+ d1 [$ \; P/ L9 w$ C
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: M' Q* d8 g% o7 d) | minimize any downside risks.
: |7 s* u" i: U7 ]( v+ ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% S9 u' U1 \+ R" y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 F+ x. b$ d! U$ o2 |4 k
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 ~7 Q) O6 L3 {3 o( r, Q: ~ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 M% Z4 E0 @& }$ l3 e
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 @( \/ V* ~/ A3 _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# {+ T8 I2 C( z, v2 i, k+ F/ q! ]
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% q2 r7 ?/ r5 w1 m- s* O far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ @0 m' q$ j' d; M. q0 b/ ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: x4 e6 j' d3 h; M
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
# Z7 N* i6 B9 w J9 P# ?1 T modestly in recent years.2 O8 \: o; i) k$ s5 {
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( N2 `* X7 p* k6 M general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ V, a! d' F0 U7 }
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 D! F$ L# V. G+ T @% T- g
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 N* {! {( s5 H" T following two years of deterioration. `8 m0 e T: a: [; v
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