TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
7 T+ `6 a: ~( z1 S8 h+ Funsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
0 N8 \* o1 w; C1 L9 ]. O% tfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
1 r; n! g4 i7 u/ Foverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
+ [& D& ]# X1 L& r- j7 Lthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
4 x7 [- k: P+ o8 z12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
9 ]1 \3 n5 A8 @8 N5 a2 ]& eBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
- h2 |. u' X; a* P5 C# }4 ytheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
6 N; X' j1 N0 y( k7 m4 w" ethat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
/ |# |1 |$ t; i7 ^where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
% K. J+ C& b5 N) r: Mhomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
* u: ]0 I9 M9 n; Mthat is now being rapidly reined in.
  }5 T$ Z$ C- L5 l2 h  vWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
* R6 Z/ N% i- y. tthe construction of too many new homes over the boom
( l( Y  `" R/ |* V. J" Ymeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
' S5 K. f4 z  B$ H: K/ _7 k( ~on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
3 H  s% Y1 Q" bremain choppy and new residential construction will be
1 I) z% I; e  E$ s3 p6 i+ W! Ddampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
& i- o5 p# v# A+ g. K$ M0 iis now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
4 p4 L$ Z4 P. {& p" Q0 X1 H( r125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
. J1 S! m6 i/ Lin the fourth quarter.
. G' j/ Z# p0 ]( [/ l- K  y0 ITo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
! U# L2 D. d; B/ E1 ?we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
8 E$ K& L# c- A& Fof residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
) Q9 m( t. T* Q6 C! a8 Doptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
7 Q" n* u' f% F( ?" Rpopulation inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
9 G9 h5 c' }+ U- x( C. O% _1 n4 t$ Palready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
" Z. v" G: Q0 r. K) U2 F8 W( |  chas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
% X3 {) h( `0 U5 [weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
% W. X9 s- |8 Q( x0 \  {: o+ Astrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
: Y/ a0 [+ n  n5 C: M, P: IMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
  h' T4 ^0 o! N8 S* z" ]3 q4 Jgiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
1 J/ J; N* ]( u) r" I% q. ~  P# srates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
3 d! g  |+ l* [: T& ?" g; Vlimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
, ~% n) X' @1 `3 h5 B0 Fcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
6 R, ]3 R3 G, Fhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
; S& y- ?$ T# Lreach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
: ~( o" B; g6 D$ qspike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
+ h3 e$ B% O/ p. LMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
+ I& d  [. M- l1 {; `5 yGrant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
7 v: d* K& T' K0 @( ]1 D416-944-5730

9 m9 h# }3 T+ T9 xhttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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