TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
( v) R; }( w" N1 v8 `" u6 Bfrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
# M0 ^6 y% M8 F( j# S5 ^that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
& f: c& a, i# _5 Q; s5 K# O' s! l, Athree years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
! w8 K: D: s$ [their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
% O3 D. c/ W# U  T8 vaffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
6 n+ c* I# P" ?1 N7 p8 P# cwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
8 J0 o% ^' _* U; t6 nthat is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
! s; q4 w% l9 wmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
  v- ?7 I% M/ D. T7 O. gon markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
- N' L6 e# b! }. Tdampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
  ?7 F& w5 |- g2 _3 Y! Ato persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
3 N" Y3 B: \% E5 B1 S% R5 WTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
( X. v/ Q5 }0 gfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
. p/ @  _; {$ G$ f6 ^- @6 F2 y, Clong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
# J+ _7 o) g1 j8 D# t+ Tof residential construction.
& n$ d+ I, d0 B$ }0 k. TTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
" ^4 I  F: O3 ^' Loptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
. J! u; j! @9 X8 x6 ufundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
5 Y8 P5 y+ I7 d+ Bunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
# H6 Y0 J% ^2 B1 j5 @& t+ b  Z8 Yhas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
' k) b2 n  N% ygiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
. Y% F" q- ~! Q6 O% [' Ocyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
9 G* r: Q  _: X" y4 b( ?limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
6 E4 _  g: Y' a1 l, wcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
" C: z5 Q6 ~6 yreach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
+ `' P* M' ]4 l( v, ~years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
0 i: Z* S9 B! V  b5 d; _. u$ qwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
0 f: Q/ J+ }  o  vOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
' J# P8 `' Z$ c1 n* x; EMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
' \6 b$ b2 w; Q$ Z5 hGrant Bishop, Economist
; F- H% E1 n) e9 F5 {416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
" i! {5 }* y' w$ E416-944-5730

- y; ?4 F2 ~8 l; ^http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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