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No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

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鲜花(34) 鸡蛋(5)
发表于 2008-10-1 08:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.; n6 f8 V5 O$ v, P( G

1 X! e# M& Y/ D- q* WIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
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$ ]) x) f. R  m"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."$ a& [0 @+ h) d% ]& h  M
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As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
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; P' H% E1 ~  @) t. Z+ V"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player." q2 b+ a3 i1 T2 A" u6 M5 D

0 A  C5 I% B2 N! K"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."1 ]  R* c/ h: A, {: z
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Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.! D3 W2 t3 O4 g1 s* ~2 c
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Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.7 `" L9 y/ ~& J+ Q3 @0 y
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"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
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) @- L/ _4 N* A& O! T, U. u! z当然,历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉,现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger./ O1 f) P: J# ^' x4 e7 g$ v
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦,没看到,抱歉。
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* d! ], ~4 t, R% a: G[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]
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