No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
) l) c6 `0 j- m. r3 k
; |- |0 x7 D% r- H+ Y* AIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
( P$ w4 T9 H+ ?  `
"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
! `* \6 s9 }9 Q: P6 u: A
As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
7 m  j! y: U$ ~/ q' U6 J, f% d
"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
/ }$ k% A. Y' o2 ?( ?1 n, X! q
/ b# f: F. D) M& h+ {$ q7 o"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

6 C' o0 a+ ]- D- v3 k6 W8 B/ qSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
: g$ u5 l8 c# C- L4 i1 i7 h- y
  {9 i. r( d( N- k  c"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
+ }$ C% Q* Y' M% h5 g
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

1 n* H5 E& E8 h& K/ c1 \[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]