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Attention Real Estate Reporters: i! J! B _% B0 G. Z$ J; z
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 D ]$ m1 K$ V/ O9 q. i$ v TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US( E1 ]6 v0 J! X( a
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern0 K c: L8 b" \- t& m
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
5 k) P! b9 D$ p. [6 o. fTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)* [% m' F- [6 Y5 M! k) W5 A
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
+ [5 \* |, F" h2 ^upbeat.1 ~4 _' V. Z4 {6 U/ `" t0 A
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 A; i! B. T2 F4 [' ~' J# dannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
# B. [, b+ W; uinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
# E; Z. v9 d% c% O5 M' A$ gestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
! S: q0 `. T9 l. m" S! p3 y( irepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.' L0 W6 v3 V- v1 y& ~1 J
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
/ i7 Q& a# F2 _4 h7 g1 n& Fincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.2 Y* R/ R( F7 a" s% o" t6 C
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 E. S$ Q r- F [7 G
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
) p! I! j- j" j4 G' Ienvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
2 m+ w) ~7 }& w: M1 i: _8 abe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
% S0 m8 V* n; N3 N, Mhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."3 g3 h1 V/ B+ v. U
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
1 Z% D7 w3 M% x Y9 s# s+ Fborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 k/ V/ c7 c5 [9 O: Q7 T
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey2 r N3 t8 h$ B( \
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US+ W0 f+ t& I! ~
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be1 N' E1 R, f1 Z7 e; ?: g8 H$ z
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
. u# a) f2 j) L5 _ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian% g, G4 Q5 I" k1 F) Q
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
. b U4 |0 o) R( e, y( ycommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land3 y3 e- p/ P* n% W, w
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country# t0 o; ~1 f5 ~0 a( M! b
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
# }; ?* H4 t" h7 c, Edevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
8 M4 y L) i9 t8 j, Fresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
# V# C* a, P2 J9 [, O2 I6 }take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and4 h0 {. V# R, T* Y
single-family housing looks overpriced.4 g3 ]2 O1 j* H: H
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with; V1 t. n4 j9 w4 n' D8 g& w. I. k
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
% m7 e$ c9 d; G/ j5 i$ m5 ametropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
- o8 ^- q7 x) u+ U, `# A+ U7 L1 lhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting0 @* i/ u( A: s* W8 Z4 R/ B
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good," V2 W/ ~- ~$ k+ ^* {: U$ `
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
0 N; o9 ]: k$ M$ u! wapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
" d5 @# A8 d) Ywestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing) X2 f b* ?% @4 l% G3 J, v
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into0 v. f3 R2 ?, i" B* k% k4 q
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
" q9 C0 { @* f: R0 din other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.! E) J3 d: ?5 v4 P9 `$ G4 u. s
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Canadian Markets to Watch! b+ J3 B+ l- r# W" ?& X1 }
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, ?" K- |7 D, ^ k, p7 r" Qcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour$ b7 p. m [' O) T9 R6 w7 v5 f- H
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back# z6 g) t) v/ n0 i0 A# ?0 d
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- _! Y6 _: E% b- {$ Y) h$ k/ t+ bdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
. r' U9 V0 x/ U. U) ? x3 rprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
& `: S/ E+ c9 N5 @% Swest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
3 Z5 t; W% c' pprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain3 w, S+ M/ \6 H
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.5 } ?9 b8 d2 s V) `6 W' j5 f' N
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
7 n4 Y. p) H ?ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging., |, ]* O5 E* }2 Q8 C. m
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Calgary/Edmonton' b* F+ C1 k% Z+ v
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
! u! ?6 l6 \! _( l& qboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a6 [$ j$ M D) T* I
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
8 d- e* C) K' k2 a2 B48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
2 ]; m# S }( Q. r! ` M# @2 t$ TFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale; e* H- D6 u% O: @7 `- H, N" W
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the1 x4 M6 \6 Y' k% I4 j, F
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays7 H: c4 K( T3 a+ W+ ^" D* @" m
strong, this market will continue to do well. m4 L% q/ @$ u6 ~5 W) w/ A Z
( k }) ?0 Q8 y Vancouver
( I5 N. p1 m, y f9 \: o1 O: K2 Y" I: _5 Z7 ^
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is( L/ {* ^/ P9 P
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
! D, b6 S9 W8 ~' `# ^real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the" V: P$ z- }4 n8 D, H
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a8 ?' B" N0 l" d6 M$ G6 J
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy0 r' d- u2 @" ~4 P! y6 m
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
4 N5 ~2 c$ a) C* {for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%1 C* y4 M3 A) P
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very9 N* T& ^& d; c4 M; W* B
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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" a7 W$ @5 A, v! L Toronto# }: I% Z8 ~/ \1 ?+ D) M# ~
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
7 _; E1 @# B: Cmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is7 f7 O: ~5 b2 i, I. U5 m
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing# J- f, }# g* D( i/ K* h9 W
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
$ F3 k' z; r( J; B+ M# ~% |Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square/ R2 v" M3 U3 S- g
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. d3 k9 j3 D: J" V0 j
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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8 g' M8 J1 E6 j$ P; Y% b" J Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall$ q, H" C# u8 u( l f3 s W
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
8 H! c1 U8 b; gshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
# c+ D4 E6 n8 g- jCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
- n9 W0 V& M' g) msectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
/ L" a& j* C% E0 d P& Mhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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. {" K+ E1 H3 N The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years2 r& z$ z7 I/ o6 p9 s. i
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy p9 Z0 e) B, o7 ?; ?( X/ z( j
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos& ~1 D+ A" s% i* |* Y. ^" U. H8 ?
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest% o2 N& [, Q6 m! [9 I
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
' r5 R: v& ~4 X( a) }3 U dprices."
6 k& Z. G4 E0 P- x) @; y$ B8 z: N: r A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at/ B& q& {; ^. k) g. B7 y
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.0 L& J k2 D( w" Y
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers r/ Q6 _5 n% i
7 y! @1 {; g" T1 m& O1 q PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,: m% `0 W% F- r- [1 M
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
$ Z3 Q( J! a* X6 I8 F: K! ?6 oclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries9 [; D- S6 q% ^" ?, y+ U
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop. w. ?) v7 M( R( W
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of( R2 E5 x3 l" m6 J
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its" U/ q, H& C7 f. ~+ R- N
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
4 v( M& u x- C8 t9 ], {& ^+ Kcountry.
2 \) u4 ^6 Q8 M" H: f) O "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario z$ P* e. [/ ]) H
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the! o& Z& R5 |, ?; N* p
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
/ L$ Z, R: F# Z9 p$ m! j1 ~each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
8 U0 `1 g" l1 D1 @- Y) `" W# k' v, m' q! \8 S* U) k! A1 y0 I
About the Urban Land Institute9 Q% M V0 a9 x% T" o: T- s
. |/ Y2 x. ^: I5 l- P/ M$ o The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and6 j# O# H3 Q) `5 d0 d+ X$ y1 L& W7 A }
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
1 u7 O9 o/ Z( D8 `8 w0 j* O* Oleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating' D6 p4 r$ |( K: l3 x) R
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more2 `. f- e4 P" i7 U. t4 m
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development$ ]4 D1 }- D* n |7 j
disciplines.
7 J2 m& Z" p7 @4 ~2 Q The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
4 q, t. I9 r1 P# dWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District/ F1 Y$ q5 u) i9 \
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
: E8 ^- B- J# f4 @& Wnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
0 |- T9 K/ ]( {2 ?! i& z9 Yhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,% q3 L5 G3 H) f' G; c
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake+ O4 c3 k% D- H q; |
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
* Q/ Z l, D8 w. L$ FPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please, a2 u) |3 c# Y* V
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on3 Y, u ?* U1 _1 G9 D8 T$ q
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.. O" t$ W) i7 q3 o0 v
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, `( O0 e, f+ l
3 U% h, P* ^ ]: D7 ^! ZFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,9 k+ Y, _1 v/ _
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com. z' ], ^6 D* N- h: T" C
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html. d' Y5 o* H D! h" Y, A2 w
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