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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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% w. d! f& H: q8 t, mDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
3 S3 d, ^* d+ Y# K- F+ z TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US( c- ?( Y9 z& h$ `5 R# X9 Q# T/ e
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
. M& z% l, n: [! pas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
, ]* g/ s+ P+ w6 y1 m5 ]Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
" z- U6 I, r( Z oand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more% O- n- a# b" a0 ^1 U2 `) A9 _
upbeat.* S2 m$ N5 V+ f% Y
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded7 ]! o8 D% M- ?" |. X1 q
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
$ x0 Q0 g4 J+ w+ W: [0 m( Einterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
) S# o* P; ~( g" ^estate experts, including investors, developers, property company# b- K/ g& M; ]+ w8 |% Z
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.) @5 _% P- o$ w. ^- e0 g4 n
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
# [7 X, I" K' R" hincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
( {! Q9 J( ~" t According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian" ? |7 O# j! S1 W$ @- R. \
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment8 ~2 i# n4 t6 a1 s$ p- l f
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to2 a, }6 ~. `7 K0 ]( R5 s' e4 w" J
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record( d* y+ f8 ?. g( v7 M! x
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."# z: a2 ]# p0 G q! o
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
3 b$ O$ q& y3 X' q6 F( K( g! f, {border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game! L: b7 P! W1 [8 O+ q) G
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
, W, a! _$ n$ ?. Wremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
. e5 e8 ~9 [# R: W* Q. Icorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
+ u5 I$ g: U2 C) m2 X/ ^very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.0 t& h! F/ [! z* }8 ?$ b3 h( |
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ L- J2 @/ A' Y- t
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
0 y( r4 c* F# W: U$ V/ R* U6 g4 E6 Jcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land* O. o5 g' l2 w& g
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country1 `! s. I2 _+ Z3 N \3 O
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
[; f) L6 H! X, |: z" ydevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
# n' Q3 M( S" v& iresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to' w* {1 H, M. L# X3 l) G
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
/ A8 z- p4 p) P8 Y' W! N$ O" jsingle-family housing looks overpriced.$ M; l( ~. J, N0 {) C
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with" W1 h: f8 u, i5 l$ Z, {8 c9 E
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian: r& ^" Z& @6 Y) Q, S7 Y' d
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
% ?* `+ L0 f4 u9 W9 b0 Y3 Rhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting5 q1 l/ O# O' T5 d& T8 ~
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
: j. S. R. I8 v: p* n# L! Xand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
& \% T c- D0 ^( @% uapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary4 R5 Q3 ?9 s+ V' a9 e1 C- h
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
9 Y' P2 M6 j" n- Dshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
" {) @& e+ D9 s/ K4 Z7 D0 W1 O5 n, @) ]/ _the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development0 b* l% x& y3 u3 M8 J( l
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
/ G# o$ }" _* G! o }0 Z0 k3 z
% q H: d( O4 @* T& p" l Canadian Markets to Watch
. X0 t7 D/ b- c" M+ |1 N
) O8 U' J8 S0 G/ F The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central' m" [3 P* _" a% V6 n2 _1 I
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour- h# f$ D% C1 r% U$ k H
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
?" b# P3 [! S' G6 g# Rinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in6 J) p5 v8 c; i( K5 O! ~
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical9 O k# o( B% D$ i0 F: k
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out& x P2 ^( R4 @) T/ q* q. E
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment% K+ p5 O- ~$ [- ^; A0 w: v4 K
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain; F F0 n; }" h. w; v" o4 E
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.( l0 q/ Q f: c4 L
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
9 k( h( r9 ]! P8 _ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
# H8 D7 x' L1 i" s; u$ p* J+ n# \
% M4 I# }, u$ @ m Calgary/Edmonton8 `& F# [6 j' F! s
* b' `. s4 r$ }4 ~. \, W0 M9 s
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one; m Z% p% l! Z/ C8 \ @# C
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: ^2 _" e2 {! d7 k) T& [buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
7 j# p6 x: h) x" {48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
$ T( F4 k- A# d& T3 ^$ x6 sFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale( Z! ]' K) Z- Q- M
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
$ W0 A2 j* I! s3 N! nCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
& U2 c0 b0 N& }' x4 ? N& pstrong, this market will continue to do well.4 F' N/ D& I [" a8 g
4 G- Y$ j, i9 r: W3 I Vancouver
* N6 e8 o" o! P5 c. R3 `
6 q- W3 ~' ], {, y; q Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is( X4 V' z; l( a2 z) j/ W
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
8 M a" a/ }' {( k& ereal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the2 i6 u, J% x6 d- A9 {' d* |9 a: U% p
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a# K, X" _- s e9 j2 l
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
" Q! g3 H) R, Y) l, Yrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
3 A0 _- g! w4 Q( S# h7 q9 s& dfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%. R$ n3 D; n, F0 L6 ^5 Y9 s) {
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very0 K2 p/ X7 ^1 u- y7 l4 J$ G# o
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
3 I( I; N0 L3 J A* [. K& H- p N5 G% ~$ O$ ]% y
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and, k2 g6 n- Q5 v+ U' r" x8 y
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is, {: }: a2 L7 W# R
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing* N2 T# s8 ~( d% X& c, Y
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
% A& l, j: Y4 c9 _) {4 |Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
4 j. d- x+ I- P8 {; [: a7 R) Qfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
3 \2 t6 ?8 D! e# _Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
0 r; y$ `4 I' C& p# M2 f2 b% O* m$ `2 A) D$ Y2 A& U
Montreal9 a3 @- g R" q( A
2 G: |$ N' [, M3 t! G+ D Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall7 R( s8 y+ `# v! h o5 ~4 I
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
# T6 U; V# ^4 mshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 O) y* j) P: V( V0 qCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
& b( n3 M8 Y0 g# L+ W Lsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors' `, O8 ^* s- w3 m' E
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
) K5 u. L) G; w/ m# z
. {! ` O9 B% w" d+ x The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
/ Y0 P1 I5 d# }# oinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy' g- b% p% o/ b4 `8 Z. H- @ @; K
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" }2 _ f, a( h( {near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest# x" ^! V9 ^, w) p+ M6 F8 p3 |: x
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
* z& }4 w- X+ @) wprices."2 j2 q) d/ m+ b, m4 [
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at5 w# i6 F' Q6 b( b" f7 s5 v
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.8 D! M$ o4 s: p, Q+ h: h9 a; C
& h, d6 o$ ~0 l; w1 _' x About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 `: M& \* _9 m* J6 g
" x" `4 N1 K9 i Q" r0 _# a
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
7 Y) x5 {. e; K! K1 ytax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its( _) Z& R2 I" t& q. Z, f
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries# U7 F/ ^: n" N8 b+ I' Y3 {3 g
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
0 G9 n0 ?# G0 j q( c5 gfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
1 R! ^- b1 |" m% S( a- Q2 Pexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
# m: P: G* x3 ^8 w$ c3 g5 _4 \related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
& O. R3 h0 B, Ncountry.3 q0 K8 _' M( x5 z( S" L" G
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario7 A9 f# c5 G$ }2 l
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
9 d, H& |& l( g) `PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
5 J2 `. ~) a' S/ Ieach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' W! U* w5 [. {4 m) y3 f
/ [/ l+ S/ X! F About the Urban Land Institute' d2 Z% J, g8 z: ]) ]
( @1 o* l6 P4 K8 v( q; Q! o
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and+ N2 G1 p. V! }) L9 _
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide- T* t/ ^ ?: N) K V! t: @% s- r- O& x
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating5 \( j/ _9 M& \$ ~3 {9 |6 v
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
+ j1 R- h6 j# W Q- [9 ~than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
+ [6 _! M& W% odisciplines.* u+ B8 s) |" _8 C6 a% J
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada." H2 B2 M* I6 J$ `* _/ K
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District9 }9 T; J$ m+ T
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is3 w m; K5 {. b$ S
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
; G2 `" i8 Q q, l* qhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! \7 U5 H+ U" @ W( N' Q2 ]. Z2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake2 r( j7 v b% t) E, O" y
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,! e2 i4 i9 a5 I+ |# P
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please9 W8 g2 u9 d3 E' A. I0 }8 ]
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
- H; u) X( n( E2 N$ ^7 Y+ Q1 p& [8 i9 ithe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
( G* s8 s2 Z ]% k/ z; p/ t) j$ C/ @/ I7 u0 \; I
: H& ?+ [! |& ] n1 o5 W, t) f- B# G; T. C$ j
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,4 n2 d: ?2 Y ]1 j: d
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
, @4 ?6 s J6 G0 ohttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html# u" T# C9 E E4 S$ x
# m& Y4 e9 `/ G3 T0 N4 B[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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