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Attention Real Estate Reporters: . c, y: v! X: i) I5 [# u5 [
$ o7 l- a% P S- `4 o
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ! P+ A6 J5 p% L$ W+ E* Y
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US' _6 j; D1 q9 ~# `
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
9 u+ P* s1 _: M: \5 Ras the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
& ]4 _: p$ O: k4 A; o5 OTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
; t9 O) m. _* o/ [& Land the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
$ h4 f5 }5 S* U P! J3 y4 Uupbeat./ ]0 b& c3 d# j
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
- d. n2 S. ^3 e9 wannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
' V1 |! ^4 D2 {2 b/ f) j! ^interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real8 r; B. o: j: r1 B' W* H$ f' G+ o& R
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
0 j9 Z& _+ u* \9 u: N1 }* Mrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US. x6 G' U! l) L
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world" U* ?" \+ I4 i0 J, J
including Asia Pacific and Europe.% v( ^ Z% c+ J& F8 I$ I# l
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 P8 y' ^: J7 ?3 c( |' s
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
! F9 ]3 V" H7 M* n( Xenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to6 v, f" u# H: U9 G: ?6 F2 ?! ~
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
% m% z' n* S& d5 ]highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
5 X6 u6 T6 Y7 J0 Q3 }4 z( T5 u According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the5 Q ^- J6 @5 `1 |" c2 Q
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game' z( E) n4 j/ R4 w* }) _8 b
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey- r4 U& ?, b( P7 ^2 D- I* z$ H
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
0 z1 p" a, Z3 W2 Acorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be' k& H: u" t6 P' ~- e
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 |2 o! y7 q6 t The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
2 ?$ {/ L8 A7 u4 J! i2 Erespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
& C* Z; O" Y. Hcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
, P! }, p4 U: X6 c& |development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
3 U' u( B4 [- uespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating0 L: ?- ]; N/ j# U) t
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
b0 ]9 z B! N+ Qresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to. i$ [, a c/ A' e
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
; R! q( \ L# `" Y9 lsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
; l: J, Y9 D. g# {' u, x1 Z Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
* G3 o6 e5 F! A1 D+ Itenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
% t8 Q; [/ B$ jmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
8 C+ r7 F, E! u! D' |higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
2 L8 x& b/ O( e) f3 Xnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
: @, U- Q- Z! {. Nand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
0 }! r* T% T- g$ @$ s7 [apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary; I6 C# Z' } M
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
p3 J2 t9 A' C1 C" rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
! G( k& T3 m2 x: Bthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
' `! d6 n4 e/ R& A9 N* R6 Oin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity./ K0 M& Y. f5 b9 h9 d
# ? l* y4 N6 n8 y, J) |# p Canadian Markets to Watch
) ^+ b% l4 J. m. j8 D
8 E* @+ h% S4 w) Q, ^9 i* s The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
& S. e- k0 F: o) ?! Q4 r8 v& ^cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour7 [6 \6 z* y; ~
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
% q0 o# {3 |; ]into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
" L; z5 B; {' Wdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( h- _1 m2 c0 j0 V/ Dprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out3 u5 B- |9 P- P5 d
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment7 E1 k3 G2 s- s1 Z/ P% b6 {5 m$ H) z
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain3 T+ J1 e$ c: J, E) a
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
" Z P0 x# p- [4 aToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
5 T' S, |* x1 Q) M# O2 y5 @ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.$ o6 k' `/ c/ w% O: L* I
9 Z. P: ?. O3 O; ]1 h8 _ Calgary/Edmonton$ q) Y; V, j& D3 |* g" Q
3 T4 J& ~1 g) s: C. o: P
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one( s p+ t3 m9 L0 E' S( p
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
" P$ d, ~9 ~( ] Kbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
8 }4 \/ ]! h% k" Q1 A2 _) n: o48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
, ~" g! D' \. OFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale4 V& M& |4 `0 d# u
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the' z1 O1 P- W5 S* p: \
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays/ r2 r. }0 S* a; a( y+ h" E* h% h
strong, this market will continue to do well.
! T# ?9 \% K9 ~' F" N$ Y" {& A+ b
9 O* ^+ }9 u) } Vancouver/ a- G( U) O: ?( L3 b6 t, l
: F( `8 ^& Q- o7 y* M; L/ p" X" g
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
7 W0 u9 d4 Z# C. R: W. f6 i7 ^booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous0 i3 |7 m9 f/ b/ C: z# x8 S- w1 N
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
+ u) L. `. R3 P0 u! S$ Jmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
5 D+ \% _1 q3 `8 [' N9 Y& B$ |! Jgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
* q" P! j7 M4 {% w8 b. q( |recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
, o& B- J0 d1 m6 Vfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%5 `- |; V# G) b6 j6 a. K4 c
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very# ?& c- V; y% W" x
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
" ~6 _/ S \, E% ^3 S5 G* G; \' X
6 Q9 L' ]& P# i4 a Toronto$ h, X8 F! p$ H$ W
" K9 X1 @6 C5 A* n6 r4 C Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
/ N7 A) E, H$ R7 J& U$ `7 Gmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is/ ]: L5 l/ a9 u# U$ {1 U% [
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) S9 @2 P& j$ ?industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum./ [: g+ ~* t4 A2 n, O& i! k3 N
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
) E; {0 y- G/ v( R0 y' x" ~feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and+ {, I$ v. f& e0 {% z" K# k* F' g
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
/ l% @& Y4 {7 A5 v1 J+ X& X; r0 \# l" J$ ~ o8 j
Montreal
1 U0 N$ g4 i1 O
4 x" m; K# Q8 |) { Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
' C0 F4 f: l# }1 Hgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
8 z( u8 ?% s/ s! Ashop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
: p9 c4 y. c8 S6 ~, E1 \Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
: R' a! b K& a. osectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
7 k7 M* \0 I3 fhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
0 ^: |' [& F" V% Z9 {: i
+ E) H) N9 v1 A& l" ?& R" ]7 x The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years- r8 T0 b Z5 W, Z4 x# `
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy' U( n. `5 E5 o* I" k/ `6 N( R/ n
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
0 w& X* Y' j# v/ knear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest! Y. J4 G1 t) Z9 E4 q
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( v) {2 ]3 A* m- N& zprices."( E8 z9 g1 ~) g- Z' w# ?0 {( y
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
8 _4 k8 Z2 G1 R0 E) ]1 Pwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.* l% @9 y0 _7 ?/ q6 k) k
" \# W$ k" G3 b
About PricewaterhouseCoopers2 h, h: b& `, j8 S
- g) g. _4 H" p. x$ z PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
6 Y# J. X; H# `9 q/ ]tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
/ @8 ~/ O+ P2 @) cclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries+ B7 B; }# E9 f7 @% i2 j* p
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop+ G: D9 U( ~7 H) o2 `8 v& [
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
- a% p, W) r2 G6 bexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 R3 y9 M5 d! s' I3 O
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
" M3 e5 i5 G1 v* E# K3 p. A& fcountry.
' R7 s2 t5 E) `. [' [ M1 X# G" L "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
" D, i* m% E. A. M4 E" u$ B. Mlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
# b% V- {# H% u9 j" K, JPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,- L) E) K4 g, L/ S# X4 E4 H
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
0 p( E1 e5 Z; V
3 R/ c' z" L& s# l+ o3 j$ Y About the Urban Land Institute3 x \' _5 e7 q2 ^7 G( [3 L
8 i- P5 I9 c: }; Q/ u The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and c: X: X/ m. L# Y: z) V# X1 v
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide/ o; F% b2 W6 V! i0 E1 W" P% B4 n
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
8 R7 [2 V3 ~) T. \thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more5 d8 U: s1 K6 O( j* c- R2 H6 i
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
. D) ?+ W" Z+ {: q$ C4 G/ Xdisciplines.
* D p: d' I5 V6 z/ M The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.3 O; L" E0 _, S$ C0 L" g) O8 l
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
8 \) [+ T5 H$ M- R# x! `Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
/ G2 U1 b$ p, L8 |% pnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be, _1 |. N+ z1 r' j
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
+ h, L7 v$ p! D# v6 ^2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake A& U( Y' L) c0 g
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
j' K; _8 I d3 bPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
) `' S, T( x9 ^4 H. o4 O8 D0 @2 ~call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
- Q( M. r: B3 gthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.) e5 H0 ^: I6 m$ t& s
. T+ n4 j6 ?1 P' \/ A
$ C6 T' m' _/ E# [! g9 W0 x: `& h# J7 H' E7 D& p; T- |
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,' i1 ~% d8 k( I
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com- t, M9 }. Q7 w) k
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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5 {6 L' q9 Y; X: |5 D4 C. X[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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