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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ' `1 n; A) k$ j3 U
0 G' `+ D$ [' v3 n9 o) @% b$ P: cDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ' C2 V) S; @$ {* y: _8 w
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US" a: ] m, y; Y! I$ u
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
, p' F( d% j0 p! r vas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging0 ^* s! m7 e6 z, O& }
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
; Y$ V# x+ D/ j* C7 \- ]and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more. Z) \) i( A. `
upbeat.
7 J) E6 J& H( ~ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded5 Z% E9 k4 u: m J, P, z
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 G' T) y" w0 P* d
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real6 \1 d1 {2 X5 I W
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company$ D9 n) d; Z" i
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.3 \ n5 o: v+ I* j3 S
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
, L* n, M% i" r% mincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.8 k3 d+ j! I; X `: E5 u9 u1 @
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 w& e$ c0 G8 [# I/ [" {2 l
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
. t6 P! u# ?) d; T7 ?8 Wenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
+ J% F5 N/ @1 ^( abe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record9 ~' j6 o. Z+ A. }
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
% A& V8 E4 {8 Z& O According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the7 m4 E: j& F5 s b o
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
" @+ z, f j& ~' {8 \6 @speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey8 K0 I+ u4 l+ `4 K
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US2 Q4 J! @% X6 C* c
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be. Q; j L6 n$ |" ~
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
9 X% H a5 Q' V* ~/ Y" d6 v Z The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
6 {" F0 I& C$ u' T2 zrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by o' T$ e; y: f+ E, c8 O( A* A& C
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
Q. y. M. s* ~& q; K" r* k, cdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country a* \) R Q% b' u% @. d! b
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating$ g9 g2 M+ `1 v6 \5 l, G% C0 l2 u
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The( }% `5 s& w" a2 H. R2 p5 M) Q
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to Q' k8 q W/ _- y- C
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
, D: [8 R3 \8 p5 h6 x0 U c3 _4 b* ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.% ~: H2 f6 m& \9 t, `
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with, a8 m* q" c8 ?4 p% B
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian7 \8 w/ a" O/ T; a* F; e
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
( Z9 Y; h4 z/ _9 ^4 R# Shigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting: i8 N1 S2 [# e+ w. T# o
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
: u0 u& v1 R& G r! m$ Uand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
- T [8 Q; \( {apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary x, S- \# p# D y( q
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing: P' p+ K/ D, _; o, s$ w
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
6 b- O3 U2 [ wthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
) D2 _* b% t$ ~: `in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
4 D+ H+ S( _8 u; f. X/ a6 w: ^ T3 @2 E) r* a5 A
Canadian Markets to Watch& h0 D0 M! C' V4 P- r
6 X+ A# y' X+ V7 y The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
; ^6 r: a) o1 v) O% P! t& E8 u5 ccities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
: e3 K) g) V; zneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
& a, Y3 s8 q9 J$ minto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in7 |: t. |- C4 A$ L
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
) k! y& Y% f2 m) H% Aprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
: P# V) [" a) r8 ^: dwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment+ Z) p9 { i! v0 y, A, ^% D
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
* Y" V7 S- Z; K5 F. T: A6 _/ pwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this./ y: \5 M6 D. x6 P+ v _( C8 l
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
/ K3 I/ b3 C4 \' Eratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
* q7 Z/ b: P# N% v: x& _* \
9 m* h4 b1 v# X' T2 i2 n" W% h Calgary/Edmonton, J; M! a K. a
9 Z. m! P9 e7 s6 y/ I+ O Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one5 K# _- p0 I$ h* x9 Y
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
* \7 e) x/ ?4 r5 v. m& K4 bbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,) e8 h5 R$ e) v1 x, w! x
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.; x' q7 O& _ T! ~4 \
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
4 @1 Q1 L1 |- K5 `' y0 k& N6 CHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
p2 d4 F9 ` P# W' N; HCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
1 s; K& \* K- u: ?3 Z5 W; hstrong, this market will continue to do well.
" y4 J c' Q3 A5 j; r6 }7 O5 _
$ g$ x# V9 `% B; Y! D9 N# l5 C Vancouver. D! n6 E6 a' C2 H& T5 t/ v1 C
b: V! A+ J6 j
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
4 m5 z8 L9 B$ D% S7 W# `# O; ibooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
) Q G ~, ?3 Kreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
, x! Y* C y3 l z, pmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
- D1 w8 L- R0 Qgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy5 E! p: Y0 }5 ^, ~8 r
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%7 n" T G( q" H6 H3 T( M
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%" N& w, B0 L* y
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
% H: @& i# W3 L; p! F5 Z9 }9 [+ G+ T& [1 lgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.4 f# f1 K" u- a' p
8 S0 z- e5 _1 a2 s0 T
Toronto( s/ w# ^7 i) t" n% C2 C, f0 ?
. F/ Q' F9 ~& I
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
% T/ c. X0 Y3 x' N" ^+ pmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
1 Q0 o, O8 }& {3 _+ T% e% i# yrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing# G; T# C( {6 w7 N; { J- M
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
7 }) R5 |8 X& ]* l2 f6 ?/ {0 UThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square: s) j" c! `8 J+ y2 \
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
6 T+ _/ o0 ~+ nApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
4 X. j) S4 q$ n2 w, _8 P
( u3 x1 p7 i, S; X, ^ Montreal
' i0 i; y3 t1 h. G/ Z6 C- L( f/ z6 L5 | M8 A
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
8 n$ R+ {2 V9 O* Vgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
- ^ t6 G S$ \" ~shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in( a- L( K8 J* Q
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate* e9 \2 A+ A' n: z8 Q G4 w
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors1 q8 X% f9 ^4 U. y. q# \
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
$ l* \" I5 e1 Z% r" A- h7 v' L* m, _- E; K- L; m
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 q0 ]) O0 O( a( d" y
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy1 F& C( b: t/ Q7 X
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
* L; i* `( ?( f1 x6 Pnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
: Y% u: T) u6 c# J, Joverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current" t6 A& r+ X/ K1 L4 ~+ g! N
prices.", t' d8 a) Z; c: A. N, W P
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at& b& V. f. f- \% W% e% i! b: U
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.7 U" f, ~/ X/ t1 e6 G, \
- M+ ?) q3 m$ f' c
About PricewaterhouseCoopers" g, u4 \. H$ V. l/ u) ?
6 ^& K0 X: }1 N" M" ~% p3 v PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
* w% @( k" J$ j/ H4 i9 T; Gtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
9 c2 g: V) l+ z2 |1 w) eclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
2 u r9 c; A! b) K, K2 Racross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop0 \! k1 Q1 g, X% ~- Z) V/ n
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
2 V7 ]) k3 l1 oexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its3 V' r( J" D% M8 T; Q) s( d7 a* I
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the' t. u4 i2 Q" O( |3 _( p) A
country.
. S, l8 p. c0 w! L5 J6 Y "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( _. Q3 K9 O2 d. e* B ]
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the n+ `* Z# a9 J* b
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,. b5 _7 T- i/ n. W* s+ f' |! w
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
* `: S% M$ a3 S, L
: n6 Q' P: L4 f7 i/ N About the Urban Land Institute
8 V: Q ]$ w0 C4 W( [8 g# R: t5 L3 I. J" Z& m
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and' y( C9 f2 _) Y! B1 U
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
5 O8 P( E, S+ [- z/ V6 d4 g2 Lleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
7 A2 |# r2 ^' j. ]thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more+ `2 e7 _; f5 a0 E4 s
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development* p3 i: P2 E( Y
disciplines.9 X3 _! x" V, j+ v3 L; i& ]4 Y: b
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada." j+ @: V2 r0 a. R4 n# o
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District- V) v- F7 G& t- S" [
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
0 \7 l5 a0 x% \ E4 G f, ]% i) _now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be) J- i0 {, g3 r# f- k; P
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
4 T! L4 W& N$ d2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake. S% z5 n+ e1 q* \& z
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,; A, Y7 C* t8 R9 V2 s" p
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please/ Y8 d5 G8 r& _( z0 d+ s+ _: {
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on; `2 t$ \ m$ H* k& Q5 w& h0 w# S
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
$ ~2 Q/ @3 z% ]& a: n" x
N' C ~, ~9 j1 q
# {. a) ?* t1 p( |/ P
) x4 c% F2 K! fFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
& ]8 M+ Z* `: r+ A) K( u(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com. ]$ f1 Y( M6 P" {& @7 O
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html: ^2 n9 d! V7 T7 R& L5 v
1 ^2 E6 D6 v) G7 c, W8 e- }) a- V5 m[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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