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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
- C) h6 x0 l/ ^/ G M TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US+ k# X0 |) D$ I+ J
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
) |, G" r# ?# r9 d \2 Sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
0 N4 F5 P8 K A3 h1 ?+ Y6 a- pTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), ]/ V. }" @$ G# L
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 A% b7 z" i- ?5 E; X
upbeat.
: `# } i" Z7 i Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
4 p% L8 L/ j. dannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
3 h1 m- A8 [, G. Pinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real# }) s \# J" }" R1 q7 G: V
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company* F+ s$ o* W; t" h: x
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
/ m: ~6 Q9 I" s& `8 yOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
! S" z) k9 t5 R8 R; l( fincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
$ q+ ~$ x* @8 G2 L7 `( } According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian( y% T2 v, Q* M: t1 m1 G7 k7 ^/ [
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
2 t+ {) ?( W1 L8 nenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
3 J- J' A0 O. z- R( Ybe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record9 @# W2 |& Y1 a7 f# I" a
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
E3 E: ?; W7 t4 _# n According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the+ i7 P1 g7 s s1 U
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game% ^+ b7 N7 y) I8 z
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey( R2 }# A& f- B# x# V" d( X
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US, W' P# N+ I! l" D
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
9 c( M0 P8 f$ U+ V9 S9 avery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
8 L8 ^* |& I2 Y y- A3 i The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
) }1 T% X# L3 F' ]respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by- N% S) m$ i) q. V" t( p7 S
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land# C/ U2 \6 J- X' a6 b+ s) b; H
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country0 W; t0 L% r7 X6 }' ^4 ?: F
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
( P: ^1 Y4 S5 s h# Z$ Idevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
4 \( F2 l: p+ G7 _; p5 [8 |5 kresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to# E( W# w# ~) ~. r
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
4 }9 b% |, n6 k1 u9 i5 bsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
7 {. `7 K5 w( @5 D {; v& A Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with0 d' p; o. s; t s0 ~8 x
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian5 n- a( {6 W: I6 e' K' L
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push( C6 [: k' `" N" V. n$ `
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting/ l; O/ p- N4 Z7 \
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
2 F' b- ^5 V8 G: sand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental; Z% l& G9 }6 }" T3 @- j, k: |
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
3 J1 ]% I! _: P. E- Y: R4 m* gwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
; M8 h$ S/ ]# j1 Nshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into& |" s* \1 ~5 k0 ]; j* [
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
5 [: B, w% k# {% [; Cin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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6 {2 A7 A0 j. \# D" ` Canadian Markets to Watch r2 `+ w1 J& q; n; \! e
+ D$ _5 n- Z, S( A, t6 g3 N The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
( |0 ^# _# G: q0 U6 D5 G& t. xcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' E& g {! y2 A3 `" ^1 X+ Kneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back) e# m$ Q" ?# [. A" v* h
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
4 t- B& W0 s. mdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
9 @$ ?2 l3 g. t; mprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
$ R0 \% c/ k1 Z6 M( Twest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment$ Q% l% i3 G6 ?
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
3 h" d( j4 n/ A( o1 w0 vwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
( J% F; H* R2 `Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
. m F8 }: v/ P" U" A1 S" i0 zratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton- V% D' z# \6 s! @& n- I
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
' V2 R% ?8 v, D- x7 B: c# Zboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
G- e6 e! ^$ wbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
( s) Q. w3 L- g: c! r48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.( ~4 h3 ~- f; S% \1 Y! p" Y# `, E
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
$ X" Q: [4 C4 F6 t* ~2 bHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the$ a0 a3 |$ u# ?% O. |, S0 y
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays! X' O) g( m- M% k' q7 S A
strong, this market will continue to do well.
- B5 @6 D; d- O. V. H3 i" M
) x' ^# A1 I0 q. |# ] Vancouver8 ]8 u }0 @1 K4 q5 j& [! P$ \
4 `6 k6 Y! w! Q$ W: @" }
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
, G; u* e, D4 D9 ^7 Abooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
) P* y. K0 o; i% `, treal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
! j5 [$ }( J6 q/ _, Smarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
6 c- y. g' H% s+ Z* Jgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy* j' A# @" z; X0 t% g
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%; h3 x- N9 g% C) l: ], R
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
$ _. O8 \8 M" P/ h( ~9 {8 K" J& |for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very3 q6 ~# m- T5 {
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto$ A- }$ d" t, I9 F
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and1 o) a. g7 j/ p# P7 Q _1 B
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
# p, x" r% c/ ~6 O7 Lrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing5 F7 ?0 ~. {; K8 H
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
% k! T, F. ~% W7 ZThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
& v& Q/ ?& s8 t, ^% \feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and2 p0 J' p, _: n0 I( R& Z
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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1 s- |8 M! [% t Montreal
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; e( {" V" c6 R5 e2 Z' T Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall5 E0 ]+ a! a0 p: R. {
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up' m/ N& T! G# H& q4 g
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
1 \+ p9 C6 I/ W5 V7 QCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate y+ U2 }) b3 _- Y
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors7 a0 K7 b6 \# W* }5 x
higher as a "hold" recommendation.3 f3 ~& [& ~" ]; s! j: F3 ]
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 O: H) @* w) m zinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
" A6 O) {; Q( O/ \markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
) f9 }) b& s1 b, ~; mnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
% b4 h; u% d( `% `% l4 `overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current1 ?) B( F# s* `
prices."4 g3 K9 _8 \, R
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at& T) D7 b8 Q7 _- h1 C0 {* q5 u
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.: {* F: v) Z4 V% |, F
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers+ a# `/ Z# ~) F' v6 @7 [
3 R+ N8 h+ }! _6 Z
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
4 E7 _: R4 e9 k/ ltax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
8 `& s; r* o& c2 e1 c+ F- Jclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
, l6 B a4 w) K8 r3 T& T. Wacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop) ] {5 J% X8 W; R2 S
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of, u6 Y0 E/ k/ M9 W9 U7 X& _3 |
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
# z$ {0 \9 S0 f/ n( ?6 Y. A& J, I2 lrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
0 C; ~# l& a" f6 `, D+ u- ]/ b6 mcountry.7 O) t7 e/ |: }% g9 C
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
% ] e ^% L! m4 {& S# Rlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the' c+ D( Z* c# b8 e, Q# L
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,+ f: `" Y6 O: S8 F4 t/ _+ n1 v
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
, |2 }; H: C! x. a t* K
$ d# M' A' T; b0 @5 r About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
) k$ Q) K i: L1 Eresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
2 b1 N2 [8 v& {3 N; n8 kleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating" P' b/ @; [- q+ k0 C
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
1 b4 }0 v1 x/ \( Y2 V) J) Wthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development: J5 s* I( x7 z1 z: t6 {
disciplines., s2 h' h: E' m, ?! l0 e# F( @
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
( m: p3 ^: w2 |+ K: rWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
9 H+ S# o. m$ f- ?Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
, r3 b5 F( C' \! b- a# G0 _now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
( x% Q% ?+ Y& V6 [( m0 s" Jhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,$ [+ E# W3 A+ Z% B2 K" T
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
2 k8 u3 O- H6 e- d8 S8 W7 |Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,7 m, h3 u3 i5 b$ T, X
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please* D' g8 D$ X5 |" F2 D* [* y
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on. I( D/ z4 g- u2 Q
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' F. o' D' ~% G! S
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$ l5 i* k4 L9 GFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
; f7 Y6 l- v' y4 G8 |(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com/ H- k$ r# d- O1 r) y* G/ v7 H
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html; R+ D8 @& B/ b& {4 @* I, B6 ~
$ {! {/ R; |! R1 J2 i- a% f! I[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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