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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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, V. z) ~0 q* s) v7 M7 [% n( mDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 6 P+ i% y# |2 i
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US8 L2 U) c# U0 |( @* u/ `8 Z
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
4 @5 ?* K& e" s3 tas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
# V( [$ @' C9 Q# s7 t3 R4 Y& S S9 UTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)- { g0 x: t9 G" {
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
6 }. x6 U) {& H8 {upbeat.
0 V2 f( l1 A5 p1 ~8 }& _8 f* l Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded" i) ~& P- x+ Y3 Z
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
- P9 t$ }# i) R/ U, xinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
d0 K( e# J, C! I( Z( }6 p: gestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
( K, q \+ k# erepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.2 l5 d8 ~! a( Z/ P5 W
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
; ` t) \( C$ _3 X pincluding Asia Pacific and Europe., K- a ]+ R* @
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ p" p+ w+ l) ]. x
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
4 {1 e& I1 @0 A1 venvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
' V1 c+ H8 q+ c7 a; ?5 d/ A$ A+ Xbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 W, h+ f* _4 h" H+ s: b
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."* Y/ @& N( a; E1 a9 c
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the/ @; P* f- A3 T# Q
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game9 ~' J, X- C* ?1 _7 _0 R5 g
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
+ C6 Y$ R3 x3 ]. aremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
7 k7 B; w% [1 {1 Y+ l- }correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
3 X f7 X# q# E8 Yvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.; ]* N8 [" E2 h# t
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; n- B- W3 V8 Qrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
$ q0 i y2 j5 z6 S/ wcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
% B$ N/ \% P9 H" f* p: v1 S* Tdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country' C# z4 U1 I/ [ D) v
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
, B/ H# A" E! ~$ M! Odevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
: G( g# u: ?( Kresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to2 b+ M# U% R* b [; O9 {0 L
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
& s) t+ f9 T, Y N6 x4 Qsingle-family housing looks overpriced.. @3 [9 \3 ] `
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with* @ I. n. l# ]/ ?2 [6 f
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
" d% h+ O: Z, C# c4 p2 a9 T Rmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
1 v+ M) G9 j# Q- R7 ^/ ~! @higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting2 _. f! B N5 x. a3 ?; {, [
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
9 q- E1 L4 T3 N( |1 H2 Z4 }# n7 A! Oand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental! ^+ D( ^8 A! m `
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary8 [5 r( w9 I" F) P- Y$ ]
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing+ S( c$ C6 n- d( @+ m* B
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into" o& a" [1 k e! @
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
7 ]+ m7 z! A7 _* Q$ t6 l6 Pin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
G9 B& z' O# L& N" t
) N E4 Q+ Y; D( c- t Canadian Markets to Watch
+ K9 q) f U* N0 f3 s G+ ]2 W4 z/ |
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
- C- Y. g6 r9 G: |. lcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour3 F. T; e m. V2 R a
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
' H+ m' \+ N) P5 cinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
2 D0 X5 x0 a( ]9 p ]) P; Idowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
! f& Y$ ^, y# h, R# Z5 A; Sprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
# a5 N* w) X! X" ^) Y3 c" Wwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment4 Q( N4 X m' k, S* \4 t
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
n2 ~2 A/ h' T1 Y3 v; ~whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
+ f* _8 r' H8 U4 V4 ~/ kToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high- G0 B2 }) e5 B0 J3 t6 {/ B! P9 n
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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! Y# |1 I& z* F6 \% O Calgary/Edmonton- Y/ ~* o: d2 Z% U# i/ ? O9 ^
0 v6 Y- N; p7 S( ]( z Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
4 j9 K0 V7 g8 g8 p; f3 Cboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
% E& g/ M) K5 c: i3 X% ?- m' A' F3 B! mbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
" H$ @- L& u* b2 x48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
3 Q/ J) ?& j7 n$ eFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale; l6 p0 _3 J4 j
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the5 f' R, L' C4 Y. m: s( X6 ]" F4 Z. z
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
3 [" Z, o' J4 q; B9 L' q& l" N0 Dstrong, this market will continue to do well.
" G& J) G5 I- k) q) N. R7 n* D$ Y7 N# `# z% |( t4 ~. c4 U
Vancouver5 T: u* Q$ i$ U( I5 ?4 K. _) c! a* ]
A( c4 V) K4 k# F
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
: G7 H0 {# D/ q* `2 |8 ^& bbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous6 @* w1 @7 J* N' Q7 A: B
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the% [' ~- H" M' s0 {: h! X
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
' J* F7 U1 m- h) u ?growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
5 a! Q0 v6 f6 X0 Erecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
' U1 {' |+ H: U5 x O& r# A9 Vfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%" p% f6 o+ b/ _+ ~
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
, k9 Z( ?3 t8 |% N% l2 bgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.& j' E4 P- \; G5 d6 k6 z
" _; z* v! z& L' @ Toronto
# ^% d5 h# X0 v+ `0 {
: C/ z" W- A- j, `4 y: K Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and. O" Q* z) j+ F6 V8 X# X
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is1 S% v7 g1 V3 u& l$ j
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing1 N/ a/ c3 @2 a, d
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.6 C ?9 ]$ }$ [: L
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
2 @5 f- R8 Z7 \+ a- F+ Wfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and: K! K& f- a W: L/ {9 ]
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.* y! O$ G; d8 ~
. Y9 {) x( V1 \3 `: Y5 N0 F% \
Montreal% |! [7 d- u! b: n
7 z' I( n1 e# Q% {8 L5 x Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall: Q N$ Z- q2 H, g, ?$ O$ m
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up' W5 }/ p3 K3 H& l) B2 L3 {, A
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
B. R4 E1 I9 c$ D; f, PCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate! r% `- s, q0 r i" C
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
, g* F3 q3 j4 X- g; j' Chigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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1 n/ v0 x. B ~' A2 k The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years2 I/ o9 ~) ^: }# x0 g
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy, A" ]* _" u4 S
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
+ F, T8 s% y/ H1 wnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest9 u! B7 ^ q: G! O- y& |% a5 y. R
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current' z {/ u* {* a6 P% o
prices."% C6 W8 o2 n7 T7 n3 c4 S3 j
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
" g5 C) f: ? I, [) |www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.( d3 v+ u" [7 |' h4 z! Q. Q
6 d* y. ]* I' q0 B+ n7 ? About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,; v/ E* E1 a7 y* l2 u
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
: I: ]! G) ?2 }3 kclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries3 a. h. ]. S% o* Q) u
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ }9 W0 f6 k/ P9 V* C* |
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
* f7 u0 ?% r- p& r! V! r$ {& Uexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its( _* P5 w: q4 `# A9 Y: t! }
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the8 a% c& J+ _1 m$ M' S k
country.
1 g' Q9 p j( ]5 q( G f! z "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario7 C6 g3 D7 i8 ]3 F
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the0 ]4 H$ Z/ C! J k; X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
3 l, j6 z1 t$ s' f( }each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
1 q7 s' h4 v0 f. _( z' h2 j. l$ g* y& X% F, b# [
About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
& N& x1 s/ t2 F2 Cresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide- R2 I; `( s& ~. r
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
3 Y4 H: ?& L% B+ _0 Nthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
! z; T' t G# l/ t0 }than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
& C- Z, w9 T" `disciplines.
( S7 c C! Q" {: I+ O The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.& i. x Z3 q% W- P
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District' ~6 p. ]1 |+ @/ N& R
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is, j" H3 N! r& w. a+ V1 l
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be- }( H6 p s* \' F9 c: |) n
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,$ n; S- o5 W5 P* h A0 e5 E5 K+ H
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake* r( c9 G% G3 |
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
3 n8 y0 a6 {9 S5 vPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please" I% Y" z3 Z! \/ u# Q
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on6 z8 S8 q' i/ y$ k1 f& E
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066." s# [' o$ A0 q: ?& Q, I
/ o1 S4 m3 X" [3 @; I
+ T l0 L. M- P- D1 J: ?3 i
7 S5 H- @9 v; ^3 [For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, R# e5 P" j3 }
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com5 x& o: S# ]7 Q$ `. O+ U; v/ ~3 |
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html" n' n m3 T6 E! T" B) q+ y
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