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Attention Real Estate Reporters: a+ b* ?# H3 ]3 h y
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 1 y7 q* n. O1 S
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US; W' N8 w5 X( D( _" h- y
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
! W( z/ b: M8 }' {) j7 J/ }as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging8 H0 N0 S- _/ @- m
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
: T! N( {9 H4 t: O: l6 jand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
6 X4 _. \" E: O) x9 lupbeat.
- }& M- g: [5 ?3 M: ~ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 z+ i* d" J g. X; B) Sannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects! y% u& a+ ?1 [: |
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real: U) S$ d: X5 [% Q/ z* \6 S
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
1 e0 B1 Z5 F" V' ]# I9 w2 irepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
+ Q7 W& m4 M7 N* A/ j; e+ POther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
! Y- ~( d+ P/ q' eincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
) v* e6 U3 G. `4 h. C* d According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian1 s7 o& w5 z& s- y9 Y# B& b7 F
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
2 y: _' x. U8 m# I. s2 ]environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
4 ]- K6 t6 B! l& q2 }# [be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record. ?* f8 ` r0 l9 u3 D
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."* T0 x7 n- ]. X1 A+ |
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
# S% g$ @7 \3 _: G6 @border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game6 S# ]' w$ t9 {6 h. @
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey4 _& x% }$ m9 j7 E8 b
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US" s# o- |# K) H3 m- R( X/ P3 f; _: H
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be6 g0 ~3 b# C- s+ s2 a
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 ], R8 X" Y# i: T) E The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian8 w& N) e+ ]9 P5 I) X
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
8 L) z! I. J! J& I2 P) Rcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land" n% j, ]9 ~# S8 [" K6 s+ `
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country, G$ _' @6 o! W( n
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
/ q4 F! Q3 r. Z q) y$ ~! L# Tdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
9 B0 W/ d$ I& ^5 y: |residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
8 j6 E# `6 i2 ~4 w. q r' wtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and/ t- u1 ?3 O$ b
single-family housing looks overpriced.
# H3 |% E, J+ W- a; @# j Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
4 Y D& g; x6 T7 utenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
5 e8 q: T0 D% ] S( Z% G. ~metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push- X- _5 k! A, e+ \+ C L; \; A
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting- s' X3 t: d. _+ V6 N- [
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,; l' W/ g b4 _2 T
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental; [' j& h9 s1 h0 K: O
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary2 m- B- D8 Z7 F! i! P
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
6 R) m0 J3 r7 g1 v1 Ashortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into. @3 E$ m, c( a% g
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development3 |9 @& s1 l8 @6 H A
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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4 L+ b% R- X0 ~5 U9 m, ^+ A! X% U Canadian Markets to Watch
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0 ?& o: l2 ]" N1 c The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central; s6 u5 {. X9 t( Q* e1 \4 L
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' p& k7 V2 y7 A: j/ jneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back* Y" s' L+ U1 d. c
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in _2 l/ c8 B( W4 v u4 f- s0 o9 `
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
. q* U# e( ]; m" Hprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
( o8 t S8 G I9 q& F: Lwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment7 G; }- `4 u: M+ x& U# Q3 M: ^
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain, _3 _$ s) ]) p& I! f# e3 P) R1 i
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
! o4 }) [8 e9 H* ~0 n/ [" HToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high0 \8 X1 n- x: N1 ^% ^
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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$ b C/ L) X/ m7 A- _2 m Calgary/Edmonton) F [) `8 j6 ]# N! [' v& G
# A% |6 i# \# q+ ~5 K% Q Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one; @0 d: M! E( k" R# l
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a" ^! H$ Y/ ]! z- }
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,* ^) t' m5 v- j' r. K! {4 i
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
! R& K7 |- q! T* l9 P1 A# TFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
3 Z0 V9 E; q5 }2 Q8 IHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) ?7 N% l! |3 b6 e
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays* _# u" ?5 H7 n
strong, this market will continue to do well.
* B& d9 _3 i0 M) D5 K1 I2 `* Y. R
3 J5 U' w2 N- n3 p& a Vancouver7 d i, b0 R" D' n8 n1 D; i. z
4 r8 a0 H9 h9 |+ g+ J Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is5 v) s- q9 C# K- o! V, z$ W
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous& W) r9 \* t- `& H5 d4 ?
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the. N6 P8 `; v5 I% [
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) g J; B+ E. C7 ugrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
; }& I) ^. ~+ ^# U3 D# v4 |recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%5 y, W1 a% P0 G! b/ W7 {6 J+ D
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
$ r8 |! {8 m# l5 G3 Nfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very6 R1 }+ f, j( s- J. N8 z
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.; E% w8 @, p! M7 U
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Toronto
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7 r' n9 H5 a2 k) Y. k Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and6 J6 \% W# X/ t3 @
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is% u' v/ Z9 x' u% L0 ]; w+ U1 _
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; v; \, u3 d& D1 R. |
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
% Q7 D2 I4 B% P, e. T+ u& l: |, ^Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square' l5 c1 c3 R8 O \
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 T' Q* i7 _8 g' N8 ?0 eApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal2 M' h' X& ~% f5 U* L
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
1 C1 h; M h4 O& ^9 p3 j/ igrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
: {! h" Y, e6 r# x0 a" ? yshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
2 }0 m( e w- W( Q, A: nCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
9 M7 M8 r, Z4 qsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors0 ~- \1 `, k8 c0 v3 |( v" e
higher as a "hold" recommendation.' ?/ i2 [7 d& Y% c: v
" n0 p: @& j' U5 |9 W2 X The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
K A# R: {/ p+ @4 }& ninclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
4 W3 p q, r D( d/ v% dmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos6 e7 w& \4 g1 R8 s4 @6 \
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest8 `& U6 C- l. Q) N$ B+ Z
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( m& g: ?& P6 gprices."
( E* U1 C' P4 W* n A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at% r8 Q7 Q9 ]4 Y- Z
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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* D7 z, X r4 [! E9 e3 h About PricewaterhouseCoopers
x' r( ^3 ^' H
4 d# R& C4 n% _7 M PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
' Q" e2 Y$ ]" u/ wtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
+ g7 E; k/ Y! S5 w$ P! Xclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
; E2 w% \3 O, v* S5 gacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop, \6 `2 X9 I' ^; ]8 ^
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of0 V8 e# v, O! N9 n: y0 w
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
. Q$ k. l8 u2 l" }% m3 mrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
" m6 i8 L" ]8 S3 {% m6 Ucountry.; \8 U- Y/ ~# J2 q: P# P: K
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
7 Z% s" s u- V) f) G! E9 ^limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
& U: l4 G4 N1 p2 CPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,5 y" O5 M' \2 A
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute: V$ r; | c4 M( E
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and! G- v7 ]2 G$ G2 t& m0 X l! e
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
, ]/ H: w9 K4 Dleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
. t) x! p+ V" I3 l+ L$ ythriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more8 @4 L6 L8 V: Z. J
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development! R q" [9 V/ _- F' T
disciplines.
# c. B( c9 }: V. c% r, v1 r( N, T The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada." N* r- t3 c6 }# a4 N
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District# i7 b7 j6 A3 q( a( c
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is6 ?/ `4 Z8 c0 s% W" ~
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be* d9 B- [1 @+ Z* p( X+ {* }
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,9 I. h8 |- t3 N9 ~7 p
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake. F V. R$ n q3 K( u
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
: {2 I1 p# b) t5 D; ~President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please/ \2 b3 _: U- {& z! m5 D" N- _: v
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
; U/ L9 G* _" c2 P8 q+ Dthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066. o8 v8 i; c0 O. C3 I/ n
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,, r1 A; F( j) k4 O0 Q- v- X) v
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com3 u) S+ `/ u) O+ q: x' w
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html' h9 f. f% b2 s6 V8 x
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