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Attention Real Estate Reporters: - {& f1 Z" \$ O+ y K9 H m
+ Q- c m3 z/ M
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
1 j6 h4 W0 U! g( x0 h! m" K; U TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
k7 U7 T) U- H$ b8 ?+ bcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
0 `& ]5 g, F, }1 z7 oas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
2 v: F( w8 j3 q; t2 o$ oTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
( z6 R# n9 i4 G: q, u3 Yand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more; `1 m; r- \( L& G7 v8 s/ s
upbeat.$ l4 N3 N) A7 \) M* ]& d
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded4 S( v: D" p1 g8 r5 T% N+ [8 ]5 g/ d
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects9 q8 d' z' ^ ?: A7 p$ }! o
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
% T M4 o" f \# Pestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
Z3 g J! j; ^% m# yrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
! h5 l/ w1 {4 vOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
, B3 t/ ? ^7 n+ R' u. {( F; qincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
+ f0 P8 @ ~) w9 M/ j According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
' E3 q, x v1 L! y* {- I1 QReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment$ @9 i. A3 ~; m8 N7 Q0 a
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to* w; u: G$ l/ F' }
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
' h9 B( a% U r( W ]% ]2 Lhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
6 ? G9 z+ l7 m- K According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 W' p$ a" X) Z1 K5 ?8 K3 d+ Pborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
% a$ W) W3 _9 I. `! qspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
* S+ O. t1 x' ^( v3 ?# premain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
% |! q9 _2 d( Y( S4 I3 L. l3 ecorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be: s/ k& y7 ^( d/ B. [7 @' C
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent., ]. n4 n+ N6 p" |0 g& k
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
6 n; c3 G! c0 ~7 I5 Qrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by6 o7 N D+ K& K( }2 W. |
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
, G. S1 \6 D* ~9 pdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
0 Q4 j5 k% ] ?- l# S Kespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating1 S0 r" y3 \/ i7 r# c
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The; I' L: H& V! b: m- Q- E
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to2 ?% q+ Z- K' M, \; [) C
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
; e+ c. `! T! n N8 x4 a$ R) ^6 xsingle-family housing looks overpriced.0 d" Y. v+ j9 \
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
2 L n G& a' ktenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
7 D/ x }( h% A% @# ]2 J7 hmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
( n R; O) m0 b) vhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting( H, m# l% O: z# y
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
7 Y0 R) v/ @+ T9 uand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental4 U ~) g# |5 B4 f( |( |
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary7 G+ H; ~% F, J0 a/ W, C$ l& y
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
9 L4 g7 M; R6 ~7 Q/ s. g; ]' Rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into* }+ e: z( R. g! ~! h! Q& K
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development% c7 @) ~. Z3 ^
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.4 e$ ^0 q) _% v3 x8 B8 r
: g k, h2 M& C0 _ Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central3 A% {5 i& J( \0 L; D$ A
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour( K. f$ Q" O0 ]; b& M
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back1 I* R4 q& s; D" }+ y A# Z0 l- J
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
1 J: a3 I- v$ V: @5 Zdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
! s7 N4 }0 F5 y+ }( J2 v5 Yprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
M( Y0 h, a+ Q0 E" Bwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
: W6 a' a* ]/ ^prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
2 |) p7 w% z+ [* K. O5 `whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
! g3 Q, }* y4 dToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high p. C: q, ]6 O6 H3 a. s
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
! O7 S a5 _, ~7 z" X* `! R& d& ~
0 `5 N! _6 A) h( Z8 B Calgary/Edmonton
9 }- a) |9 W8 I1 E' V! } n- ^( }2 Y% @! d2 S
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one4 U$ p% V& z) Q0 ?3 ~, g
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
9 D* A+ _& O& h: ubuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,: Q; }& {. |8 v+ [: V7 e `
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.# }; l( g( g, \5 g2 y2 d2 H
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale2 E7 e9 L7 x8 ~7 u- b5 c
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
! l4 g# C7 l( ~( l0 ECalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays- x y. i V; j k
strong, this market will continue to do well.7 d' h4 Y" }1 h6 Y$ U
1 H8 ~6 c" N |3 ?
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is. W: ?. ?( s9 F9 l1 R0 W9 P
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous! G6 n3 ^; n- D) Y0 K+ r
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
, h! [! a/ N! U& lmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
/ s4 Q/ \( k \' f ygrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy, r0 }, T" X) P7 N
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%! E7 e/ }1 G H; G/ k" @: a
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%9 [( ?- m3 c& N# \" m9 e
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
8 M( \" e J# R5 [- J/ \good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto, I; j7 B0 y/ \, U; d
* F& s6 w2 B1 l3 | Y% P7 m5 E Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and7 O: c8 Y8 ]! M9 A( b) A- ?: b
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is( h# B4 j2 j2 h- W
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing7 j h! M! e$ R- M# J
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
, x% ^# Y% }" ~' `' ~' CThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
/ x3 j1 o3 `2 Q8 Gfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and' n; I3 L' K7 f3 N/ ~* L
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.1 a$ ]" C$ J. U) i% C( D
7 \( U4 d- r* V5 X! i Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall" j; f% r: I. s' y1 i' M
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 h3 w) n% V% L7 L; l/ Z+ sshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in; y# J8 I f6 p
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate0 C, z2 L1 P% K) N: U! q$ p
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors' g- s( Q5 t8 A" l4 e
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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Y: ~" z) v# v+ O; ` The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
' y% S. y8 f; ]) @6 Qinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy |3 I% t* u+ }- }4 n( E* e
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" {" J2 m" ?2 _" N; [) Lnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
/ v" Y+ @, P4 u8 k Uoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current- l1 Y/ }" j- [* g/ z% s! o
prices."
5 w1 b- j2 a- S' g0 P7 N A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at% r8 y. ~0 `0 v
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
$ s @* { E# ]4 n* p/ j" ?) n2 {/ J- ?" m5 _( Y( O6 ]( r: i. M
About PricewaterhouseCoopers. Y, A( h9 l. i4 B$ C9 \
2 _" Y. T4 ]" X9 Y7 b
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,, h) Q% L9 x2 n7 A. \) B
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
2 f9 x6 c+ P' n" d3 ^( Q# t3 z1 Aclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
' _9 w; Y5 U* [5 X/ D, j) v) U! `+ aacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop, a7 w @- h& Y, o
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of5 ]' z7 `. T4 b0 U& r
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
5 g( D* t7 N1 B8 g9 r) yrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the) u; X5 u+ y1 l& p; \
country.
! R. C6 h; R B2 O "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
; y. s# F$ \; V. Klimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
) i0 ?5 a, P! P }, m5 \; t8 UPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
3 ~. V( h+ q2 \, \( d& Meach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
$ I0 Z; T# S" z/ L5 R9 m) W+ `, N: o
About the Urban Land Institute
x0 v' K% F* B- G& l) N3 }; g# ^2 J: x3 ?
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
+ \' T6 j# A' e" B9 R" ?0 O# uresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide$ H, ^8 ^0 o: ~6 F
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( S: p* Z: I1 o, r* L, }thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more% Z& P) B! M+ d; u( Z, g/ f5 h$ g
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
T- f$ p. ^$ Y/ P( I$ U' E, q$ A& adisciplines.
G3 S& ]$ Z2 W$ v( h The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.# Z. `* H( y T) H/ V- `
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
6 ?4 q: A! P& l5 S! CCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
. ]( z2 B1 g# P Ynow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% c( x: K5 }$ O; k" Phosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
: v. H& q* \1 x b& a @$ o2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
- @% W! X0 R# q$ p' z# U, D, [Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ I# o, O/ U' w p: _; J# V6 [
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
0 n/ p) W; A# u" S1 W/ C) X' Hcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on6 e; R1 |9 F9 i
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.: I; [: o) U R8 @' A+ |4 p5 d
2 K( v3 V/ @& S3 p F
( V. X3 Y' r1 E( m) r4 f
5 Z+ n( _8 E) \For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,/ s9 k A7 {, q# k% z2 A" k
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
0 E" t% _+ ^( Uhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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