Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
. Z, ]4 l$ B5 m/ S( B: @' R8 dMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
: x- h# y8 ^- w
. F; _/ o/ j, k: ?2 \0 aDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
0 S: ~* |; L: J2 I6 j- J
$ |1 y0 l8 d% Q  }Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
% l. o7 }; e6 R- H) F- A
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

' }0 `' P) t% D" D. M: JAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
: q) t' J  C4 s+ }
  d6 b' T' `6 t& BJul 2007
/ n, S3 O7 X! _; b NA
2328
717
. P, {2 w& U2 x0 i7 p4 E 442,752
410,000
320
3 v0 u9 ~& N. Z 28
$ |- y4 q7 d- N/ B0 t. X 31%

Jun 2007
  e1 ?& o3 X, H% c NA
2661
2 ]( \$ M) h6 J* N+ `& ~ 1011
$ {2 S' d9 X# c! X& q/ |  \& R0 \ 442,817
& Z) `6 [. X) A* z 409,000
  \6 y5 {. W  o5 [# ?! l 328
0 ~. ^7 n$ g# `' ~ 22
9 |# H+ Q+ l0 H& c& s; L- X 38%

May 2007
NA
2288
1261
451,216
/ x# k* A* C* Y2 ?6 S( _ 415,000
: ~' I5 W0 }7 L: ?* z 322
19
0 V4 c; C( X* _2 |8 V 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
6 \8 H- {$ D4 g* l1 f鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
' [: c2 h" U! L8 H$ d这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; ?( D' U1 ~" G' W% b, X9 \. q鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
& m8 `# M' H: Z5 W3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
% n$ r& k# o( f* x6 e& T存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

- F! u% j( {& g: d9 Y8 S  b
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
2 ?- J9 \8 d  y. z: [
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
# b4 c% D6 O; o. s8 d9 q. |( c
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
9 H+ ]2 _# E, r+ \. TDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

+ m2 F  @6 i$ b* J; O0 L0 {
( d, b/ L9 w& b9 m1 P- d3 M/ ]

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
0 H3 i% u, F. Z3 YHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
. \0 B1 Q/ O: w# g( o# ?( T1 MIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 G0 k! R: T( o9 m1 Q; B4 nHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

- i* \9 ~, v% i+ ]" g6 {I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
* {2 Q$ V2 O" g9 I: O6 U0 _+ j

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
* s% f; U$ }( d5 o  z2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



- r' `$ C. V1 y7 v* G( [只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
% ~# E% U4 O, U* T8 @看来，观察days inventory 更重要。