Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
( R; k2 W: f8 S  w# D; DIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

, u+ N8 V  |) {+ xDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
4 d! r! X# L6 V  m8 N8 B5 y9 D7 l
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
" @% L. ~5 Z: V  v8 j+ p1 F( M$ F! u
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
8 Z, M  v- V; @1 r
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
- J- Y& b% _) E' }6 D" k4 e
% J8 D8 M0 `4 B# PJul 2007
NA
' z, j+ q$ h- h 2328
* F$ H$ {8 M5 F' c5 f& j/ O6 D7 D 717
442,752
7 W- `  d" s& d4 g' T5 E2 `6 Z) P 410,000
& F! v% s9 v' X+ X2 \" w$ i 320
28
5 I# }" N) C- }. q4 U 31%
. h* _. W3 l4 ?2 R, K
Jun 2007
NA
- r4 q' ^' ^- h4 i# p' f 2661
1011
+ `3 m( `& L. z/ r) |2 l 442,817
. B2 c6 Q$ N4 n; x 409,000
) x+ ?) X5 F- T$ }8 A* N 328
22
38%
$ L% w# M" f- _( W6 P) z
May 2007
NA
! r  N' V# M) c% A+ C0 G 2288
1261
$ ]. A1 _3 ]0 @3 | 451,216
9 k6 F: f$ w' w4 c( D 415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
- B1 k7 j2 i) G6 r  k8 Q这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

: {2 p4 z, O( j% w( }  A用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
' S6 q2 q6 j7 ~- e) P2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: N0 P" f. {. u存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

) b% a& n0 o+ ?" T9 ]6 g: @% Y
0 `% h8 @8 T4 j" h2 v呵呵，太不专业了吧。

  e; I. Z% ~8 G" H4 s/ O新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
( c9 N8 f5 B: a6 ~* Q
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
. w' g7 G; @  X. Y  i+ d
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

, _# i4 I# e( U* ^
5 g* W/ p$ B9 v% F0 A

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
2 s$ [' w5 e6 |Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% D! t" O( u7 P9 b

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
) h( E! X8 B" ZIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
7 ]/ h' b) E6 T* z: n/ s5 j0 `Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

2 ]) [1 V4 b5 b; ~6 k0 b
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

7 Z, O" I# O! J1 n/ A4 B8 k" z* ^QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
" x! g5 E( O9 S! H1 ]9 T! K; Q
. M) R6 i' z5 `( e/ S
  Y7 C+ Z- H* F8 X. A6 q6 \I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
& ^/ B) g3 ~. f) N2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

$ F8 [5 j5 V3 X0 D1 m. U

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。