Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
( U1 s& Z- @' v4 T1 }; Q- jNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

) o% c& m& ^" i  t: c9 W: _( KDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
7 G4 {  o4 g, n1 E1 J' [; b% \
" |$ `! L! ?. }& a8 T: J  hOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

) B9 m6 b& ]4 R" X9 s4 u; tSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
1 J' \5 C; J+ i5 Q3 {
; k1 R# q, v6 X# D2 ]) `Jul 2007
+ u1 t% X  e) B* ^( B; l$ g NA
1 L- r2 r( `# ?# v4 } 2328
# k, `! K1 c% f- l* S& \; v 717
442,752
410,000
( e4 r' f" ~( v0 [ 320
28
3 W) l# `# Q# X1 _ 31%

: t' ]. i( r/ I: O/ G* T& UJun 2007
- o' Z! }8 g# N. B1 c9 P NA
0 r" l( D9 N; N 2661
1011
" ?, }- J. h. b& {# x  T6 ]( w 442,817
409,000
+ Q) w3 i; Q( L# M* w+ o. E 328
22
  c/ x5 r. z: {# S# m0 I 38%
( u- t% }2 T1 f) C
May 2007
0 a! F: P: [* V7 v NA
2288
1261
9 q" n- h+ D$ x 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
4 r5 @. ]2 l0 b0 {3 G8 Q- W% S鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 c, g# O6 }# R鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ u- M2 V# }" S, w# f6 e3 P2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
0 \: k1 A* M1 e+ t) e鉴定完毕！

8 L) A& X+ s' i: V
3 w% c/ m! j/ R# L呵呵，太不专业了吧。
5 ~: Q/ X3 t$ V+ ]  [! ?
" J1 I( B7 G) w! Q( b1 W新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

, X& h2 j  H3 y. N5 K' \就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
4 F4 l7 i. ~6 ^, h
6 b6 ?. a: `% H. A! A/ M这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
  `0 r: @1 d" tDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

! o- k' ]2 ]6 g8 x6 s- t

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
' y8 d2 A1 x# l( WIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
) V" t; C& o' t% A# B( nHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
  E3 ]' c$ [, Z8 vIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

, u3 |# Q: {" `) @
- F; Y" @; j2 `9 Q; ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
6 v0 P' l0 A: u1 `8 {5 @9 _. X1 O( Y! EEdmonton Single Family Home
1 X7 E, F1 q+ q$ R) XMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
5 b, u; k7 l/ PIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

* P7 k5 W9 y, M: h5 EQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
+ k2 r1 {- F( i3 ~4 p6 B( G
) Z, c+ l/ T. c9 {
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

& C# c* R/ i! h! h+ G0 d: r7 r

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
, k( h; q# d0 x! y% l8 z4 k  s1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
# q" N+ d( i2 V6 c" ^; o7 Y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

1 I  G, I3 b  V1 U6 M" R下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

6 \' z0 P6 a/ Y, q( ^4 u6 K

" A* u! m* U8 r) |. n; b* M只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
+ x4 l* v" _9 a; F- Y* P看来，观察days inventory 更重要。