Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
  s$ ~/ Y; q. VMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
& Y. {& M/ m' u4 m4 o! tIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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' C) R2 b# [/ v- B- lDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
: _: B8 P5 w/ F! P9 c' S
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
% Y1 _; J7 s/ m! k" b  J) }- |
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
+ P  b! o, |9 p6 A/ d& W; X0 V' z
Jul 2007
NA
$ v* B  |4 r% R" f. W 2328
4 u' p  j) [' c 717
442,752
# _5 z( m3 O- A, p$ I& n 410,000
' q! y& R" N  p, A- C& L+ c% ^3 z' S 320
28
4 m8 m  o4 ?& a& B$ X: F9 t; i( ? 31%

Jun 2007
- _( o9 D3 _, A1 k  Y NA
, d4 h4 ^' M% D- p- x7 Y; N: ^' w* ^ 2661
1011
, J6 U# ~9 w( M# D0 D+ G 442,817
7 W2 h/ {4 B6 g+ j1 r 409,000
328
9 n: K/ n9 A1 r; Z0 f 22
7 e+ B4 }6 b* p$ ~ 38%
  [# b7 y1 V* S, A. I8 x
0 L1 @: l; Z; M: |# {+ dMay 2007
' P3 R* M+ Z( Y. ~6 G6 Y NA
9 f2 I6 _6 |2 b7 }1 k6 v7 Y 2288
1261
451,216
9 R3 z+ u8 V; i7 k 415,000
; F$ c5 o, a" [6 E% ^ 322
19
  t$ l" k+ g1 K* _6 y 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
$ \, y( f) m. b3 H鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 i+ |+ s- v: k6 }9 v6 j3 Q# C鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
. R$ J; w; q6 S1 @9 A2 n3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
( }% w' N  W! r存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 O) M: A9 Z& U7 w- @鉴定完毕！

& Y9 a0 o# i. f3 J  W: V: E
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

2 V) ?  L6 }) Y+ A6 U+ Z就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

, O. R$ R' r4 f. P9 _: v这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
/ t3 v8 M9 }2 MDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

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+ V+ p8 h% F1 g" f3 A

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

+ h# V. h0 P- J  @9 k0 ?) T/ ^

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
: j6 J& r: H- ~# ?% I' r0 G$ HIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
2 t5 w, Z9 V5 |* LHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
# z, e3 F# q3 S$ m3 u5 O5 t  EThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
/ @$ G( t" T& [# VIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
* d1 y6 a4 L+ X. G; z* P$ TIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
, n7 R+ @# O6 g1 c9 IHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

( ~; M8 a3 Y, j- w, _* C. q0 z
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ p1 p3 t, l: |. s9 cNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


- j* g# s0 @, m3 FI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

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WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
* C7 V2 f: G; o1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

& D0 n7 j# V' @1 W

6 f% X) R1 O( c只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。