Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
7 [3 r& t& i" A( H
: o" t) W$ S" j& I! U  l  @) G! PDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
: @2 h* ]5 j8 L, c8 @
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
' g* d8 A! f- u0 H7 L8 h5 I" q 442,752
410,000
+ n# X& q9 n! E" z$ B+ X' h% z 320
; a% e8 x( A* i" q* Y* u2 @ 28
( X3 j9 z; g9 W  Z 31%

Jun 2007
5 O, T0 i! W2 z1 k. W( U3 C- }' m0 Q NA
2661
6 e8 F& t. P" A' ]1 v 1011
" k* j+ ^8 H2 B+ T 442,817
409,000
, h& w2 M5 D& c% [/ F/ a 328
22
38%
9 g' w0 T4 F" J/ G! I
May 2007
6 I2 s: s. D- {, n- d& j$ @ NA
* M0 l% N) N' R) J! b 2288
* p" n+ R1 g# s! e0 V 1261
451,216
415,000
322
: G9 |) t/ x- C: z# E3 H 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

8 B) G" v6 e5 p/ u7 k
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 V8 r1 {# C& `. ]0 w' L$ X2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
& l6 j- H8 {- r. Z! c, M3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
; Q+ y9 R/ a4 h存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& r+ R. E. @2 E鉴定完毕！

6 f5 ?- Q, i3 x& F/ Q- t# c
3 N' U  z/ l  s( I( j2 y& n8 ]呵呵，太不专业了吧。
0 e* V2 b# m( n
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
3 e# ?( K  w7 ?) n% }2 l
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
" J' f2 c4 i7 ~4 f+ l
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

1 ^6 ?. W* {7 Q  N# e& P* c

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
/ u( c5 @& f- f* n5 p+ z: wIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
$ K! {( j5 T8 V0 [  D' y& ZHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
  k( W) c& _* u4 I8 }/ T/ J5 f, ugood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
# l3 e  a0 I8 u4 LIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
% a1 D; n5 x; VIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, \" [- o0 }+ q" DNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
; S! o# u* Q: i7 ]
1 l3 _4 V" S. J
! L5 s8 ~8 v3 y& k/ {I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
4 p" X4 L0 q9 b- q, G; h1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
/ j8 c& }  _/ V* P* I& \6 q2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

4 n# d- \5 q; G# x
; g1 E! _2 N' i( N& X下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
1 u& z6 e2 A, z- r# N

! {* A& l3 ?* O7 n' j
, W& h2 M: Z2 a/ h3 L( r只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。